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Evaluating the impact of multiple factors on the control of COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling analysis using India as a case study


  • The currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak remains a global health concern. Understanding the transmission modes of COVID-19 can help develop more effective prevention and control strategies. In this study, we devise a two-strain nonlinear dynamical model with the purpose to shed light on the effect of multiple factors on the outbreak of the epidemic. Our targeted model incorporates the simultaneous transmission of the mutant strain and wild strain, environmental transmission and the implementation of vaccination, in the context of shortage of essential medical resources. By using the nonlinear least-square method, the model is validated based on the daily case data of the second COVID-19 wave in India, which has triggered a heavy load of confirmed cases. We present the formula for the effective reproduction number and give an estimate of it over the time. By conducting Latin Hyperbolic Sampling (LHS), evaluating the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and other sensitivity analysis, we have found that increasing the transmission probability in contact with the mutant strain, the proportion of infecteds with mutant strain, the ratio of probability of the vaccinated individuals being infected, or the indirect transmission rate, all could aggravate the outbreak by raising the total number of deaths. We also found that increasing the recovery rate of those infecteds with mutant strain while decreasing their disease-induced death rate, or raising the vaccination rate, both could alleviate the outbreak by reducing the deaths. Our results demonstrate that reducing the prevalence of the mutant strain, improving the clearance of the virus in the environment, and strengthening the ability to treat infected individuals are critical to mitigate and control the spread of COVID-19, especially in the resource-constrained regions.

    Citation: Aili Wang, Xueying Zhang, Rong Yan, Duo Bai, Jingmin He. Evaluating the impact of multiple factors on the control of COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling analysis using India as a case study[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(4): 6237-6272. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023269

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  • The currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak remains a global health concern. Understanding the transmission modes of COVID-19 can help develop more effective prevention and control strategies. In this study, we devise a two-strain nonlinear dynamical model with the purpose to shed light on the effect of multiple factors on the outbreak of the epidemic. Our targeted model incorporates the simultaneous transmission of the mutant strain and wild strain, environmental transmission and the implementation of vaccination, in the context of shortage of essential medical resources. By using the nonlinear least-square method, the model is validated based on the daily case data of the second COVID-19 wave in India, which has triggered a heavy load of confirmed cases. We present the formula for the effective reproduction number and give an estimate of it over the time. By conducting Latin Hyperbolic Sampling (LHS), evaluating the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and other sensitivity analysis, we have found that increasing the transmission probability in contact with the mutant strain, the proportion of infecteds with mutant strain, the ratio of probability of the vaccinated individuals being infected, or the indirect transmission rate, all could aggravate the outbreak by raising the total number of deaths. We also found that increasing the recovery rate of those infecteds with mutant strain while decreasing their disease-induced death rate, or raising the vaccination rate, both could alleviate the outbreak by reducing the deaths. Our results demonstrate that reducing the prevalence of the mutant strain, improving the clearance of the virus in the environment, and strengthening the ability to treat infected individuals are critical to mitigate and control the spread of COVID-19, especially in the resource-constrained regions.



    In real-world occurrences, a wide range of physical processes exhibit fractional-order behavior that can alter through time and space. The operations of differentiation and integration of fractional order are authorized by fractional calculus. The fractional order can be used on both imaginary and real integers [1,2,3]. Due to vast variety of fractional calculus of applications in disciplines such as physics, chemistry, biology, electronics, thermal systems, electrical engineering, mechanics, signal processing, weapon systems, electro hydraulics, population modeling, robotics, and control, and many others, the theory of fuzzy sets continues to attract researchers' attention [4,5,6,7,8,9,10]. As a result, over the last few years, it has caught the interest of scholars. In the investigation of population dynamics, the basis of many models used nowadays is formed by the predator-prey model. For mathematical ecology, it is one of the most popular systems.

    In 1920, the predator-prey model was presented by Volterra and Lokta for the study of population dynamics. Extensions and variations in this model are beginning to be done for many years. The study of this model in relation to oscillatory and stabilities behavior is very famous nowadays. The essential aspects of predator-prey models, which have a strong biological foundation, have been highlighted.

    In the PP model, the study on population was expanded by integrating harvesting and time delay. The rate of population change is not entirely determined by the current population. However, when considering time delay, it is also dependent on the previous population. When using the harvesting model, some research establishes a link between population and economic difficulties. There is a lot of work on the subject of delayed Predator-prey system [11]. Modeling dynamical systems in a state of flux with fuzzy differential equations is a natural choice. These systems will give a more accurate description of modern-world problems.

    The amount of work being done in this area is fast increasing these days. The notion of fuzzy derivative was first introduced by Chang and Zadeh [12]. In 1982, Dubois et al. [13] followed up, using the extension idea in their method. The concept of the fuzzy differential equation was introduced to the analysis of fuzzy dynamical concerns by Kandel and Byatt. Many researchers worked on fuzzy differential equation theory and its application to real-world problems [14,15,16].

    The existence and uniqueness theorems are the most essential and fundamental theorems in classical differential equation theory. Theorems on fuzzy-set functions have been studied in several publications. Some of these are cited as [17,18,19], and [20]. Ge et al. [17] developed the concept of uncertain delay differential equations. Using Banach's fixed point theorem, he proved the existence-uniqueness theorem for the equation under linear growth and Lipschitz conditions. For fuzzy differential equations, Chen et al. [18] designed a new existence-uniqueness theorem. To distinguish the theorem from preceding tasks, they apply the Liu procedure [18]. Fuzzy delay differential equations with the nonlocal condition were as shown by Balachandran and Prakash [19] existence of solutions. Park et al. [20] established the existence-uniqueness theorem for fuzzy differential equations by applying successive approximations on Em. The existence theorem was applied to a particular type of fuzzy differential equation. Abbas et al. [21,22] worked on a partial differential equation. Niazi et al. [23], Iqbal et al. [24], Shafqat et al. [25], Abuasbeh et al. [26] and Alnahdi et al. [27] existence-uniqueness of the FFEE were investigated.

    In 2014, Barzinji et al. demonstrated the existence of a solution for FDPP with fuzzy initial conditions on (En,D) in [28]. The DPP system is

    {˙X(ω)=X(1X)cyX˙y(ω)=cbedjτY(ωτ)X(ωτ)dYX(0)=X0,Y(0)=Y0,τω0,

    and the FDPPS in a vector form is

    {˙u(ω)=f(ω,x(ω),xω)ωJ=[0,a],x(0)=x0τω0.

    Ladde et al.[29] and reference [30] recently discovered the oscillation theory of delay differential equations. As a result, only a few results on the oscillatory property of distinct fuzzy differential systems have been published [31].

    The existence of a solution for Caputo FDPP with fuzzy initial condition on (Em,D) where β[1,2] is motivated by the previously mentioned papers. The predator-prey system is

    {c0Dβωu(ω)=u(1u)guvc0Dβωv(ω)=ghediσv(ωσ)u(ωσ)dvu(0)=u0u(0)=u1v(0)=v0σω0, (1.1)

    where x represents prey population, y represents predator population, d represents predator death rate, c represents constant predator response, σ represents the constant time required to change prey biomass into predator biomass, and x0,y0 represent the initial conditions.

    The FDPP system in a vector form:

    {c0Dβωu(ω)=f(ω,u(h(ω)),uω)ωJ=[0,a],u(0)=u0,u(0)=u1,σω0. (1.2)

    To deal with a fuzzy process, the goal of this work is to investigate the existence and uniqueness of results to FDPP systems by using Caputo derivative. Some researchers discovered FDE results in the literature, though the vast majority of them were first-order differential equations. In our research, we discovered results for Caputo derivatives of order (1, 2). We employ FDPPS. The theory of fuzzy sets continues to attract the interest of academics due to its wide range of applications in fields such as engineering, robotics, mechanics, control, thermal systems, electrical, and signal processing. The important points of the FDDE with the nature of the solution of a fundamental existence theorem. The oscillatory behavior of such an equation has vast importance. We will examine oscillation for the Caputo FDPP system in this work, and we will discover the sufficient and necessary criteria for all solutions to be oscillatory.

    This paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, some notations, concepts and terminologies are given. In Section 3, the formulation of the fuzzy delay differential predator-prey system are presented. In Section 4, we prove the existence theorem for fuzzy delay predator-prey system. In Section 5, we discuss the oscillation solution of the fuzzy delay predator-prey system. Some examples are presented in Section 6. Finally, Section 7 provides applications in real life and Section 8 provides a brief conclusion.

    Assume Mk(Rm) be family of all nonempty compact convex subsets of Rm, addition and scalar multiplication are usually also defined as Mk(Rm). Consider two nonempty bounded subsets of Rm, A and B. Hausdroff metric is used to define the distance between A and B as,

    d(A,B)=max{supaAinfbB||ab||,supbBinfaA||ab||},

    where (||x||) indicate usual Euclidean norm in Rm.

    We can have addition and scalar multiplication in fuzzy number space Em using Zadeh's extension principle, as shown in:

    [xy]β=[x]β[y]β,[kx]β=k[y]β

    where x,yEm,kRm and 1β2.

    Define D:Em×EmRm+ by equation

    D(x,y)=sup1β2max{[u]β,[v]β}

    where d is the Hausdorff metric for a non-empty compact sets in Rm.

    It is now quite easy to see, D is a metric in Em. Making use of the result,

    (i) (Em,D) is a complete metric space.

    (ii) D(xz,yz)=D(x,y) for all x,y,zEm.

    (iii) D(kx,ky)=|k|D(x,y) x,yEm and kRm.

    (iv) D(xy,ze)D(x,z)D(y,e) for all x,y,z,eEm.

    Remark 2.1. On Em, we can define subtraction , called the H-difference as follows uv has sense if there exist ωEm such that x=y+z.

    Clearly, xyx,yEm. In what follows, we consider Cb=C([0,b],Em), space of all continuous fuzzy functions define on [0,b]Rm into Em, where b>0. For x,yCb, we define the metric

    H(x,y)=supω[0,b]D(x(ω),y(ω)).

    Then (Cb,H) is complete metric space.

    Consider the compact interval T=[c,d]Rm. For the set-valued fuzzy mappings, we recall the properties of measurability and integrability [32].

    Definition 2.2. [32] A mapping F:IEm is a strongly measurable if for all β[1,2] the set-valued function Gβ:IMk(Rm) define by Gβ(ω)=[F(ω)]β is Lebesgue measurable when Mk(Rm) is endowed with topology generated by the Hausdorff metric d.

    A mapping G:IEm is called an integrably bounded if there exists an integrable function k:IRm+ such that D(G0(ω),C0)k(ω) for all ωT.

    Definition 2.3. [32] Let G:IEm. Then integral of G over I denoted by IG(ω)dω, is defined by equation [IG(ω)dω]β=IGβ(ω)dω={IG(ω)dω/g:IRm is a measurable selection for Gβ}β[1,2].

    Also, strongly measurable and an integrably bounded mapping G:IEm is said to be integrable over I if IG(ω)dωEm.

    Proposition 2.4. If G:IEm is a strongly measurable and integrably bounded then F is integrable.

    The definitions and theorems listed here can be found in [20].

    Proposition 2.5. Assume G,H:IEm be integrable and cI,λRm. Now FDPP system

    (i) I(G(ω)H(ω))dω=IG(ω)dωIH(ω)dω,

    (ii) ω0+aω0G(ω)dω=cω0G(ω)dω+ω0+acG(ω)dω,

    (iii) D(F,G) is an integrable,

    (iv) D(IG(ω)dω,IH(ω)dω)ID(G,H)(ω)dω.

    Theorem 2.6. [20] Assume G:IEm is differentiable and let derivative G is integrable on I. For all sI, we now have

    G(s)=G(a)+saG(ω)dω.

    Definition 2.7. [20] The mapping g:I×EmEm is said to be level-wise continuous at a point (ω0,u0)I×Em provided for any fixed β[1,2] and arbitrary ϵ>0, there exist ξ(ϵ,β)>0, then

    d([g(ω,u)]β,[g(ω0,u0)]β)<ϵ

    when |ωω0|<ξ(ϵ,β) and d([x]β,[x0]β)<ξ(ϵ,β) for all ωI,uEm.

    Corollary 2.8. [32] Given that G:I×EmEm is continuous. Then there's the function.

    H(ω)=ωaG(ω)ds,ωI

    is differentiable and H(ω)=G(ω). Then, if G is continuously differentiable on I, The following is the mean value theorem,

    D(G(b),G(a))(ba)sup{D(G(ω),˜0),ωI}.

    As a result, have

    D(H(b),H(a))(ba)sup{D(G(ω),˜0),ωI}.

    Theorem 2.9. [20] Assume V is any metric space and U is a compact metric space. If and only if Ω is equi-continuous on U, and Ω(u)={φ(u):φΩ} is totally bounded subset of V for each uU, the subset ω of C(U,V) of continuous mapping of U into V is totally bounded in metric of uniform convergence.

    Consider a system with a delay differential,

    ddω[c0Dβωu(ω)+mi=1Qiu(ωκi)]+R0u(ω)+nj=1Rju(ωψj)=0. (2.1)

    Definition 2.10. [30] A solution of the system (2.1) u(ω)=[u1(ω),...,un(ω)] is said to oscillate if every component ui(ω) of solution has an arbitrarily large zeros. On the other hand, it is called a non-oscillatory solution.

    Theorem 2.11. [30] Suppose the coefficients Qi and Rmi of Eq (2.1) are real n×n matrices and delays κi and φi are positive numbers. Assume u(ω) be a solution of Eq (1.1) on [0,). Then there exist a positive constant M and ζ such that ||u(ω)||Meζω for ω0.

    Theorem 2.12. [30] Assume uC{[0,),Rm} and suppose that there exist positive constants ζ and ψ such that |u(ω)|Meζω for ω0. Then abscissa of convergence ψ0 of Laplace transform U(s) of u(ω) satisfies ψ0ψ. In addition, U(s) exists and is an analytic function of s for Res<ψ0.

    Lemma 2.13. [30] Consider the nonlinear delay differential system:

    c0Dβωu(ω)+g(u(ωζ))=0. (2.2)

    As ω0, every non-oscillatory solution of the Eq (2.2) tends to zero.

    Definition 2.14. [30] A solution for the system (2.2) u(ω)=[u1(ω),...,un(ω)]T is said to oscillate if every component ui(ω) of solution has arbitrarily large zeros. On the other hand, it is called a non-oscillatory solution.

    Theorem 2.15. [30] Consider a differential delay system:

    c0Dβωu(ω)+qu(ωζ)=0,ω0. (2.3)

    Here are several statements that are equivalent:

    (i) The delay differential system (2.3) has a positive solution.

    (ii) The delay differential inequality:

    c0Dβωv(ω)+qv(ωζ)0,ω0 (2.4)

    has a positive solution.

    In this situation, the existence and uniqueness of theorems for delay differential equations will be shown.

    Theorem 2.16. [33] (Existence) Assume

    c0Dβωu(ω)=f(ω,u(ω),u(ωτ))u(θ)=ψ,ω0. (2.5)

    Suppose Ω is an open subset in Rm×B and g is a continuous on ω. If (ψ,μ)ω, then there is a solution of (2.3) passing through (ψ,μ).

    g(ω,μ) is Lipschitz in μ in compact set M of Rm×B if there is a constant k>0 that is for (ω,μi)M, for i=1,2|g(ω,μ1)g(ω,μ2)|k|μ1μ2|.

    Theorem 2.17. [33] (Uniqueness) Assume Ω is an open set in Rm×B,g:ΩRm is continuous, and G(ω,ψ) is Lipschitz in ψ in each set in Ω. If (θ,ψ)Ω, there is a unique solution of (2.5) through (κ,φ).

    In this part, we define a basic system called the FDPP system. Consider a PP system with a time delay:

    {c0Dαωu(ω)=u(1u)guv,c0Dαωv(ω)=ghediσv(ωσ)u(ωσ)dv,u(0)=u0,u(0)=u1,v(0)=v0,σω0. (3.1)

    where x represents prey population, y represents predator population, d represents predator death rate, c represents constant predator response, σ represents the constant time required to change prey biomass into predator biomass, and x0,y0 represent the initial conditions.

    The linear component and x(ω), y(ω) of system (3.1) are then fuzzified using fuzzy symmetric triangular number and parametric from representation of β-cut and x(ω), y(ω) are non negative fuzzy functions:

    ˜1=(1(1β)κ1,1+(1β)κ1)˜d=(1(1β)κ2,d+(1β)κ2)

    where 1β2.

    The FDPP system can be written as a vector:

    {c0Dβωu(ω)=f(ω,u(h(ω)),uω)ωJ=[0,a],u(0)=u0,u(0)=u1,σω0 (3.2)

    where

    f(ω,u(ω),uω)=Au(ω)+B(ω,u(ω),uω)
    ˙u(ω)=[˙u(ω)˙v(ω)],A=[100d],u(ω)=[u(ω)u(ω)]
    B(ω,u(ω),uω)=[u2guvghediσv(ωσ)x(ωσ)]
    u0=[u0v0]

    σω0.

    Where f is fuzzy mapping from EmEm,u(ω) and uω=u(ωσ) are nonnegative fuzzy functions of ω in Em. Matrix A has members that are called fuzzy numbers. c0Dβωu(ω) is fuzzy Caputo derivative of u(ω) where u0 and u1 are fuzzy number.

    Definition 4.1. Solution to problem (3.2) refers to the mapping u(ω):GEm. if it is continuous at all levels and obeys the integral equation:

    u(ω)=Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1ω+ω0f(s,u(h(s)),us)dsu(ω)=Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1ω+ω0(Au(s)+B(s,u(h(s)),us)dsωG. (4.1)

    Now let L=ζEm:H(ζ,u0)b be a space of a continuous function with

    H(ζ,φ)=sup0ωδD(ζ(ω),φ(ω))

    and b positive number. The following is how we present the existence and uniqueness theorem for the FDPP system (3.2).

    Theorem 4.2. Assume A and B are level-wise continuous on G implies that mapping g:G×LEm is level-wise continuous on G and there exists constant J0 that is

    D(g(ω,u(h(ω)),uω),g(ω,v(ω,v(h(ω)),vω))D(f(u,v))J0D(u,v)

    for all u,vEm and ωG.

    Then there's an another solution u(ω) of (3.2) defined on interval [0,δ] where

    δ={a,bP,1J0}

    and

    P=maxD(g(ω,u(h(ω)),uω),˜0),˜0Em.

    Proof. Consider the definition of the operator ψ:LL as

    ψu(ω)=Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0f(s,u(h(s)),us)ds=Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0(Au(s)+B(s,u(h(s)),us)ds. (4.2)

    First, we demonstrate that ψ:LL is continuous when ζL and H(ψζ,u0)b.

    P=maxD(g(ω,u(h(ω)),uω),˜0),D(ψζ(ω+h),ψζ(ω))=D(Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω+h0g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs),Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs))D(ω+h0g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs),ω0g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs))ω+h0D(g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs),˜0)ds=lP0asl0.

    As a result, the mapping ψ is continuous. Now

    D(ψζ(ω),Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)=D(ω0g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs),Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)ω0D(g(s,ζ(h(s)),ξs),˜0)ds=Pω

    and so

    H(ψζ,Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)=sup0ωδD(ψζ(ω),Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)Pδb.

    After that, ψ maps L to L. Because C([0,δ],Em) is complete metric space with metric H, we can now prove that L is closed subset of C([0,δ],Em), implying that L is complete metric space. Assume ϕn is sequence in L that is ϕnϕC([0,δ],Em) as n. Then

    D(ϕ(ω),Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)D(ϕ(ω),ϕn(ω))+D(ϕn(ω),Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1),

    and also,

    H(ϕ,Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)=sup0ωδD(ψ(ω),Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)u1)H(ϕ,ϕn)+H(ϕ,Cq(ω)u0)+H(ϕ,Kq(ω)u1)ϵ+b+bϵ+2b

    for sufficiently large n and an arbitrary ϵ>0. Hence, ϕL. This demonstrates that L is a closed subset of C([0,δ],Em). As a result, L is the complete metric space.

    We'll show that ψ represents contraction mapping, using Proposition 2.5 and the assumption of the theorem. For ζ,ϕL,

    D(ψζ(ω),ψϕ(ω))=D(Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0g(s,ζ(h(s)),ζs)ds,Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0g(s,ϕ(h(s)),ϕs)ds)ω0D(g(s,ζ(h(s)),ζs),g(s,ϕ(h(s)),ϕs))dsω0M0D(ζ(s),ϕ(s))ds.

    We conclude

    H(ψζ(ω),ψϕ(ω))supωδ{ω0M0D(ζ(s),ϕ(s))ds}δM0D(ζ(ω),ϕ(ω))δM0H(ζ,ϕ).

    Since δM0<2,ψ is contraction mapping. Now, ψ has unique fixed point uC([0,δ],Em) that is ψu=u, and

    u(ω)=Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0f(s,u(h(s)),us)ds=Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0(Au(s)+B(s,u(h(s)),us)ds. (4.3)

    Theorem 4.3. Consider that g and u0 as in Theorem 4.2. And let u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0) be solutions of system (3.2) corresponding to u0,v0, respectively. Then there's a constant r>1 that implies

    H(u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0))rD(u0,v0)

    for any u0,v0Em and r=1(1rM0).

    Proof. Assume that u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0) are solutions of the Eq (3.2) corresponding to u0,v0, respectively. Then

    D(u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0))=D(Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω0g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds,Cq(ω)v0+Kq(ω)v1+ω0g(s,u(h(s))ds)D(u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0))D(Cq(ω)u0,Kq(ω)v0)+D(u1,v1)+ω0D(g(s,u(h(s)),us),g(s,v(h(s)),vs))D(u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0))D(u0,v0)+D(u1,v1)+ω0M0D(u(h(s)),v(h(s))).

    Therefore,

    H(x(ω,u0,u1),v(ω,v0,u1))D(u0,v0)+D(u1,v1)+δM0H(u(ω,u0),v(ω,v0)),

    and

    H(x(ω,u0,u1),v(ω,v0,u1))1(1δM0)D(u0,v0).

    As a result, the theorem's proof is complete. For the FDPP system with starting value (3.2), we present a generalization of Theorem 4.3.

    Theorem 4.4. If g:G×EmEm is level-wise continuous and bounded, then initial value problem (3.2) has at least one solution on the interval G.

    Proof. When g is both continuous and bounded, there is a q1 that is

    D(g(ω,u(h(ω)),uω),˜0)q,ωG,uE2.

    Assume B is bounded set in C(G,Em). The set ψB={ψu:uB} is totally bounded if and only if it is equi-continuous and for every ωG, set ψB={ψu(ω):ωG} is totally bounded subset of Em. For ω0,ω1G with ω0ω1, and uB we get that

    D(ψu(ω0),ψu(ω1))=D(Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω00g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds,Cq(ω)u0+Kq(ω)u1+ω10g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds)D(ω00g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds,ω10g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds)D(g(s,u(h(s)),us),˜0)ds|ω0ω1|sup{D(g(s,u(h(s)),us),˜0)ωG}|ω0ω1|q.

    This shows that ψB is equi-continuous. Now, for fixed ωG. Now

    D(ψu(ω),ψu(ω))|ω0ω1|q,foreveryωG,uB.

    We have come to the conclusion that the set {ψu(ω):uB} is totally bounded in Em, and so ψB is relatively compact subset of C(G,Em). Since, ψ is compact, ψ bounded sets are transformed into relatively compact sets. We notice, u is the operator's fixed point ψ defined by Eq (3.2) if and only if uC(G,Em) is solution of (3.2).

    Then, in metric space, we consider ball (C(G,Em),H),

    B={ζC(G,Em),H(ζ,˜0p)},p=aq.

    Now, ψBB. For uC(G,Em),

    D(ψu(ω),ψ(u(0))=D(Cq(ω)u0+ω0g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds,u0)ω0D(g(s,u(h(s)),us),˜0)|ω|qaq
    D(ψu(ω),ψ(u(0))=D(Kq(ω)u1+ω0g(s,u(h(s)),us)ds,u1)ω0D(g(s,u(h(s)),us),˜0)|ω|qaq

    Therefore, we define ˜0:GEm,˜0(ω)=˜0,ωG so, we have

    H(ψu,ψ0)=sup{D(ψu(ω),ψ0(ω)):ωG}
    H(ψu,ψ0)=sup{D(ψu(ω),ψ0(ω)):ωG}.

    As a result, ψ is compact and consequently it has fixed point uB. The initial value problem (3.2) is solved with this fixed point.

    The oscillation of all FDPPS solutions is discussed in this section. Suppose the following system (3.2). We also present the following f hypotheses, which will only be accepted if they are stated explicitly:

    liminfu0f(u)u2, (5.1)
    limu0f(u)u=2. (5.2)

    When condition (5.1) or (5.2) is satisfied, the following linear equation is satisfied:

    c0Dβωu(ω)Cu(ω)Du(ωσ)=0 (5.3)

    will be referred to as the system's linearized equation (3.2). C and D are fuzzy matrices with characteristic equations,

    det(ϖϖICDeϖϖτ)=0. (5.4)

    To establish our oscillation theorem, we must first suppose that the non-linear FDPPS theorem has the same oscillating behavior as the equivalent linear system.

    Theorem 5.1. Assume that each linearized equation (5.3) solution is oscillatory. Then every (3.2) solution oscillates as well.

    Proof. Suppose that Eq (3.2) has a non-oscillatory solution u(ω) for the sake of contradiction. We suppose that u(ω) will be positive at some point. The case where u(ω) becomes negative in the end is identical and will be ignored. We know that limωu(ω)=0 owing to Lemma 2.13. As a result of (5.1),

    liminfωf(u(ωτ))u(ωτ)2.

    Let ϵ(1,2). Then there exists Tϵ such that ωTϵ and

    f(u(ωτ))(1ϵ)2u(ωτ).

    As a result of Eq (3.2),

    c0Dβωu(ω)+(1ϵ)2u(ωτ)1,ωTϵ.

    Equation (5.3) has a positive solution, according to Theorem 2.15. This contradicts the claim that all solutions to Eq (5.3) are oscillatory and that proof is complete.

    The solution of a linearized system's oscillation theorem is given.

    Theorem 5.2. The following propositions are identical if you consider the linearized system (5.3). Componentwise, every solution of Eq (5.3) oscillates. There are no real roots in the characteristic equation (5.4).

    Proof. For (a)(b), the proof is easy. There exists non-zero vector v that is (ϖϖ0ICDeϖϖ0τv)=0 if ϖϖ0 is real root of characteristic equation (5.4). Now, u(ω)=eϖϖ0ωv is clearly non-oscillatory solution of Eq (5.3).

    For (b)(a). Assume (b) holds that Eq (5.3) has non-oscillatory solution u(ω)=[u(ω),v(ω)]T for sake of contradiction. For ωτ, we suppose that the components of u(ω) are positive. We know, that u(ω) is of an exponential order because of the Theorem 2.15, and hence there exists ηRm that is Laplace transformations of both sides of the Eq (5.3) yield.

    F(s)U(s)=ϕ(s),Res>η (5.5)

    where

    F(s)=sICDesτ (5.6)

    and

    ϕ(s)=Cq(ω)u(0)+Kq(ω)u(0)CDesτ0τesωu(ω)dω. (5.7)

    According to the hypothesis, for any sRm, det[F(s)]0. In addition,

    lims(det[F(s)])= (5.8)

    and

    det[F(s)]>0sRm. (5.9)

    Suppose u(s) represents the Laplace transform of the solution's first component u(ω). Then, according to the Cramer rule,

    U(s)=det[M(s)]det[F(s)],Res>η (5.10)

    where

    A=[ϕ1(s)F12(s)ϕ2(s)F22(s)]

    ϕ1 is ith component of vector ϕ(s) and Fij(s) is (i,j)ωh component of matrix F(s). Obviously, for all i,j=1,2 functions ϕ1(s) and Fij(s) are entire and thus det[M(s)] and det[F(s)] are also complete functions. Assume σ0 be abscissa of convergence of u(s), now,

    ϕ0=inf{σRm:U(σ)exists}.

    According to Theorem 2.12, we find σ0= and (5.8) becomes

    U(s)=det[M(s)]det[F(s)]sRm. (5.11)

    As u(ω)>1 then U(s)>1sRm and by (5.7) and (5.9), det[M(s)]>1 for sRm. There are positive constants K, γ, and s0, as defined by M(s) and (5.6) and (5.7), respectively.

    det[M(s)]Keγsforss0. (5.12)

    Also, given (5.8), (5.9) and fact that det[F(s)] is variable s and esτ, positive number m exists that is

    det[F(s)]mforsRm. (5.13)

    It may be concluded from (5.11)–(5.13) that

    U(s)=0esωdωTesωu(s)dωesTTesωu(s)dω>1

    and so

    1<Tesωu(s)dωKmes(Tγ)1as.

    For ωT, this means that u(ω)=1, which is contraction. The proof is done.

    Example 6.1. Consider a delay predator-prey system where G=[0,3] is the initial value.

    {c0Dαωu(ω)=u(1u)uv,c0Dαωv(ω)=v+e3v(ω2)u(ω2)dv,u(0)=u0,v(0)=v0,σω0. (6.1)

    The following is a vector representation of the system (5.12):

    {c0Dβωu(ω)=f(ω,u(ω),uω)ωJ=[0,a],u(0)=u0,σω0 (6.2)

    where

    f(ω,u(ω),uω)=Au(ω)+B(ω,u(ω),uω).

    According to Lemma 2.13 and Eq (5.1), limωu(ω)=0,

    liminfωf(u(ωτ))u(ωτ)2.

    As a result, f is fuzzy mapping f:G×EmEm, uω=u(ω1) are a positive fuzzy functions of ω in Em, and x0 is fuzzy number because A is fuzzy matrix. The mapping f is a level-wise continuous and bounded in Em because A and B are a level-wise continuous and bounded on G. f satisfies condition of Theorem 4.4, and so initial value issue (6.1) has a solution on J, according to Theorem 4.4. Consider the following linearized system of (6.2):

    c0Dβωu(ω)Cu(ω)Du(ωτ)=0. (6.3)

    The fuzzy matrices C and D have the following characteristic equation:

    ϖϖ4+Aϖϖ3+Bϖϖ2+Cϖϖ+D+e(1+ϖϖ)(Eϖϖ3+Fϖϖ2+Gϖϖ)+e2(1+ϖϖ)(Hϖϖ2+Iϖϖ+J)=0 (6.4)

    where

    A=2a1+4,B=a214a1+4(1(1β)2θ21),C=a22,D=2a22(1+(1β)θ1)a22a1,E=2,F=4a18,G=2a21+8a18(1(1β)2θ21),H=(1(1β)2θ21),I=2a1(1(1β)2θ21)+4(1(1β)2θ21),J=a21(1(1β)2θ21)4a1(1(1β)2θ21)+4(1(1β)2θ21)2. (6.5)

    There are no real roots in the characteristic equation (6.4). The linearized system oscillates as a result of Theorem 5.2. The system (6.2) oscillates as well, according to the Theorem 5.1.

    Example 6.2. Consider FDPPS with G=[0,3] as the initial value.

    {c0Dαωu(ω)=u(1u)uv,c0Dαωv(ω)=v+4e2v(ω4)u(ω4)dv,u(0)=u0,v(0)=v0,σt0. (6.6)

    The following is a vector representation of the system (6.6):

    {c0Dβωu(ω)=f(ω,u(ω),uω)ωJ=[0,a],u(0)=u0,σω0 (6.7)

    where

    f(ω,u(ω),uω)=Au(ω)+B(ω,u(ω),uω).

    According to Lemma 2.13 and Eq (5.1), limωu(ω)=0,

    liminfωf(u(ωτ))u(ωτ)2.

    As a result, f is fuzzy mapping f:G×EmEm, uω=u(ω1) are positive fuzzy functions of ω in Em, and x0 is fuzzy number because A is a fuzzy matrix. The mapping f is a level-wise continuous and bounded in Em because A and B are a level-wise continuous and bounded on G. f satisfies condition of Theorem 4.4, so initial value problem (6.7) has solution on J, according to Theorem 4.4. Consider (6.7) as a linearized system:

    c0Dβωu(ω)Cu(ω)Du(ωτ)=0. (6.8)

    The fuzzy matrices C and D have the following characteristic equation:

    ϖϖ4+Aϖϖ3+Bϖϖ2+Cϖϖ+D+e2(2+ϖϖ)(Eϖϖ3+Fϖϖ2+Gϖϖ)+e4(4+ϖϖ)(Hϖϖ2+Iϖϖ+J)=0 (6.9)

    where

    A=2a1+4,B=a214a1+4(1(1β)2θ21),C=a22,D=2a22(1+(1β)θ1)a22a1,E=2,F=8a116,G=4a21+16a116(1(1β)2θ21),H=4(1(1β)2θ21),I=8a1(1(1β)2θ21)+16(1(1β)2θ21),J=4a21(1(1β)2θ21)16a1(1(1β)2θ21)+16(1(1β)2θ21)2. (6.10)

    There are no real roots in the characteristic equation (6.9). The linearized system oscillates as a result of Theorem 5.2. The system (6.7) oscillates as well, according to the Theorem 5.1. The solution curve of the oscillatory property of the system 6.6 is as shown in Figure 1:

    Figure 1.  Curve of the oscillatory property of the system 6.6 for order (1, 2).

    Predator-prey models play a crucial role in studying population dynamics and the management of renewable resources. Very rich and interesting dynamical behaviors, such as Hopf bifurcation, limit cycles, and homoclinic loops, have been observed. Time delay can be incorporated into a predator-prey model in four different ways. It can induce oscillations via Hopf bifurcation in all four types of models. May-type and Wangersky-Cunningham-type models exhibit switch of stability when the time delay takes a sequence of critical values. Constant-rate harvesting could induce more complex dynamics in delayed predator-prey systems, depending on which species is harvested. When the prey is selectively harvested, the dynamics are similar to that of the models without harvesting. Hopf bifurcation usually occurs and over-harvesting can always drive both species to extinction. The results of a study on the collapse of Atlantic cod stocks in the Canadian Grand Banks may be useful in designing fishing policies for the fishery industry, according to researchers at the University of British Columbia and the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans. In general the functional response p(x) is a monotone function, but there are experiments that indicate that nonmonotonic responses occur at the microbial level. This is often seen when micro-organisms are used for waste decomposition or for water purification. A system of delayed differential equations has been proposed to explain why there is a time delay between changes in substrate concentration and corresponding changes in the growth rate of microorganism.

    We introduced an FDPPS for the Caputo derivative in this research. On the interval [1,2], we successfully demonstrated the existence-uniqueness of the FDPPS. On J, we additionally generalized Theorem for the existence theorem of the solution of an FDPPS with a fuzzy initial condition. We also covered the oscillation theorem for FDPPS solutions. The examples provided demonstrate how the results can be applied. Future work could also include expanding on the concept introduced in this paper and introducing observability and generalizing previous efforts. This is a productive field with a wide range of research initiatives that can result in a wide range of applications and theories.

    This work was supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research, Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia [Project No. GRANT794], King Faisal University (KFU), Ahsa, Saudi Arabia. The authors, therefore, acknowledge technical and financial support of DSR at KFU.

    The authors declare no conflict of interest.



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