Estimation of invasive pneumococcal disease dynamics parameters and the impact of conjugate vaccination in Australia
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Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287-1804
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Center for Research in Scientific Computation, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8205
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Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Science Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1904
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Received:
01 August 2007
Accepted:
29 June 2018
Published:
01 January 2008
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MSC :
Primary: 92D30, 49N45; Secondary: 62P10.
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Pneumococcal diseases, or infections from the etiological agent
Streptococcus pneumoniae, have long been a major cause of morbidity and
mortality worldwide. Recent advances in the development of vaccines for these
infections have raised questions concerning their widespread and/or long-term
use. In this work, we use surveillance data collected by the Australian National
Notifiable Diseases Surveillance system to estimate parameters in a mathemat-
ical model of pneumococcal infection dynamics in a population with partial
vaccination. The parameters obtained are of particular interest as they are not
typically available in reported literature or measurable. The calibrated model
is then used to assess the impact of the recent federally funded program that
provides pneumococcal vaccines to large risk groups. The results presented
here suggest the state of these infections may be changing in response to the
programs, and warrants close quantitative monitoring.
Citation: Karyn L. Sutton, H.T. Banks, Carlos Castillo-Chávez. Estimation of invasive pneumococcal disease dynamics parameters and the impact of conjugate vaccination in Australia[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2008, 5(1): 175-204. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2008.5.175
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Abstract
Pneumococcal diseases, or infections from the etiological agent
Streptococcus pneumoniae, have long been a major cause of morbidity and
mortality worldwide. Recent advances in the development of vaccines for these
infections have raised questions concerning their widespread and/or long-term
use. In this work, we use surveillance data collected by the Australian National
Notifiable Diseases Surveillance system to estimate parameters in a mathemat-
ical model of pneumococcal infection dynamics in a population with partial
vaccination. The parameters obtained are of particular interest as they are not
typically available in reported literature or measurable. The calibrated model
is then used to assess the impact of the recent federally funded program that
provides pneumococcal vaccines to large risk groups. The results presented
here suggest the state of these infections may be changing in response to the
programs, and warrants close quantitative monitoring.
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