The ratio of hidden HIV infection in Cuba

doi:10.3934/mbe.2013.10.959

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(4): 959-977. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.959. Primary: 34D20, 93E12; Secondary: 92D30.

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The ratio of hidden HIV infection in Cuba

1. Dept. of Applied Mathematics, University of Málaga, 29071 Málaga
2. Dept. of Electronics Technology, University of Málaga, 29071 Málaga

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In this work we propose the definition of the ratio of hidden infection of HIV/AIDS epidemics, as the division of the unknown infected population by the known one. The merit of the definition lies in allowing for an indirect estimation of the whole of the infected population. A dynamical model for the ratio is derived from a previous HIV/AIDS model, which was proposed for the Cuban case, where active search for infected individuals is carried out through a contact tracing program. The stability analysis proves that the model for the ratio possesses a single positive equilibrium, which turns out to be globally asymptotically stable. The sensitivity analysis provides an insight into the relative performance of various methods for detection of infected individuals. An exponential regression has been performed to fit the known infected population, owing to actual epidemiological data of HIV/AIDS epidemics in Cuba. The goodness of the obtained fit provides additional support to the proposed model.

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Keywords: dynamical systems; system identification.; HIV/AIDS epidemiology; population dynamics; Lyapunov stability

Citation: Miguel Atencia, Esther García-Garaluz, Gonzalo Joya. The ratio of hidden HIV infection in Cuba. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(4): 959-977. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.959

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