Modeling the impact of temperature on the dynamics of carrier-dependent infectious diseases with control strategies

Shubham Chaudhry; Gauri Agrawal; Maia Martcheva; A. K. Misra; Shubham Chaudhry; Gauri Agrawal; Maia Martcheva; A. K. Misra

doi:10.3934/mbe.2025063

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2025, Volume 22, Issue 7: 1722-1750. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2025063

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Modeling the impact of temperature on the dynamics of carrier-dependent infectious diseases with control strategies

1.
Department of Mathematics, PPN College, CSJM University, Kanpur 208001, U.P., India
2.
Amity School of Applied Sciences, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Lucknow Campus, Lucknow 226028, U.P., India
3.
Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, USA
4.
Department of Mathematics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, U.P., India

Academic Editor: Yang Kuang

Received: 06 March 2025 Revised: 19 April 2025 Accepted: 12 May 2025 Published: 28 May 2025

The spread of diseases poses significant threats to human health globally. The dynamic nature of infectious diseases, especially those that also rely on carriers (e.g., house flies) for transmission, requires innovative strategies to control their spread, as environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, etc., affect the rate of growth of the carrier population. This study introduces a mathematical model to assess the effect of increasing global average temperature rise caused by carbon dioxide emissions and chemical control strategies on the dynamics of such diseases. The stability properties of feasible equilibrium solutions were discussed. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to highlight the key parameters that may help to design effective intervention strategies to control disease transmission. The model was further analyzed for an optimal control problem by incorporating a control measure on the application rate of chemical insecticides to reduce the carrier population. Through the combination of analytical techniques and numerical simulations, we have evaluated the effectiveness of chemical control strategies under varying epidemiological parameters. The model also explored the critical thresholds necessary for achieving disease control and eradication. Our results are valuable to public health officials and policymakers in designing effective interventions against carrier-dependent infectious diseases.
- mathematical model,
- carrier population,
- temperature rise,
- stability analysis,
- optimal control
Citation: Shubham Chaudhry, Gauri Agrawal, Maia Martcheva, A. K. Misra. Modeling the impact of temperature on the dynamics of carrier-dependent infectious diseases with control strategies[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2025, 22(7): 1722-1750. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2025063

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Abstract

The spread of diseases poses significant threats to human health globally. The dynamic nature of infectious diseases, especially those that also rely on carriers (e.g., house flies) for transmission, requires innovative strategies to control their spread, as environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, etc., affect the rate of growth of the carrier population. This study introduces a mathematical model to assess the effect of increasing global average temperature rise caused by carbon dioxide emissions and chemical control strategies on the dynamics of such diseases. The stability properties of feasible equilibrium solutions were discussed. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to highlight the key parameters that may help to design effective intervention strategies to control disease transmission. The model was further analyzed for an optimal control problem by incorporating a control measure on the application rate of chemical insecticides to reduce the carrier population. Through the combination of analytical techniques and numerical simulations, we have evaluated the effectiveness of chemical control strategies under varying epidemiological parameters. The model also explored the critical thresholds necessary for achieving disease control and eradication. Our results are valuable to public health officials and policymakers in designing effective interventions against carrier-dependent infectious diseases.

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