Research article

Development and Use of Mathematical Models and Software Frameworks for Integrated Analysis of Agricultural Systems and Associated Water Use Impacts

  • The development of appropriate water management strategies requires, in part, a methodology for quantifying and evaluating the impact of water policy decisions on regional stakeholders. In this work, we describe the framework we are developing to enhance the body of resources available to policy makers, farmers, and other community members in their e orts to understand, quantify, and assess the often competing objectives water consumers have with respect to usage. The foundation for the framework is the construction of a simulation-based optimization software tool using two existing software packages. In particular, we couple a robust optimization software suite (DAKOTA) with the USGS MF-OWHM water management simulation tool to provide a flexible software environment that will enable the evaluation of one or multiple (possibly competing) user-defined (or stakeholder) objectives. We introduce the individual software components and outline the communication strategy we defined for the coupled development. We present numerical results for case studies related to crop portfolio management with several defined objectives. The objectives are not optimally satisfied for any single user class, demonstrating the capability of the software tool to aid in the evaluation of a variety of competing interests.

    Citation: K.R. Fowler, E.W. Jenkins, M. Parno, J.C. Chrispell, A.I. Colón, R.T. Hanson. Development and Use of Mathematical Models and Software Frameworks for Integrated Analysis of Agricultural Systems and Associated Water Use Impacts[J]. AIMS Agriculture and Food, 2016, 1(2): 208-226. doi: 10.3934/agrfood.2016.2.208

    Related Papers:

    [1] Peter A. Braza . A dominant predator, a predator, and a prey. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2008, 5(1): 61-73. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2008.5.61
    [2] Jian Zu, Wendi Wang, Bo Zu . Evolutionary dynamics of prey-predator systems with Holling type II functional response. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2007, 4(2): 221-237. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.221
    [3] Yongli Cai, Malay Banerjee, Yun Kang, Weiming Wang . Spatiotemporal complexity in a predator--prey model with weak Allee effects. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2014, 11(6): 1247-1274. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2014.11.1247
    [4] Xiaoyuan Chang, Junjie Wei . Stability and Hopf bifurcation in a diffusivepredator-prey system incorporating a prey refuge. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(4): 979-996. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.979
    [5] Yajie Sun, Ming Zhao, Yunfei Du . Multiple bifurcations of a discrete modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(12): 20437-20467. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023904
    [6] Eric M. Takyi, Charles Ohanian, Margaret Cathcart, Nihal Kumar . Dynamical analysis of a predator-prey system with prey vigilance and hunting cooperation in predators. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024, 21(2): 2768-2786. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024123
    [7] Andrés Sanchéz, Leon A. Valencia, Jorge M. Ramirez Osorio . The Stochastic Gause Predator-Prey model: Noise-induced extinctions and invariance. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2025, 22(8): 1999-2019. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2025073
    [8] Jian Zu, Wendi Wang, Bo Zu . Letter to the editors. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2007, 4(4): 755-755. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.755
    [9] Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta . Sharpness of saturation in harvesting and predation. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2009, 6(4): 719-742. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.719
    [10] Jinxing Zhao, Yuanfu Shao . Bifurcations of a prey-predator system with fear, refuge and additional food. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(2): 3700-3720. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023173
  • The development of appropriate water management strategies requires, in part, a methodology for quantifying and evaluating the impact of water policy decisions on regional stakeholders. In this work, we describe the framework we are developing to enhance the body of resources available to policy makers, farmers, and other community members in their e orts to understand, quantify, and assess the often competing objectives water consumers have with respect to usage. The foundation for the framework is the construction of a simulation-based optimization software tool using two existing software packages. In particular, we couple a robust optimization software suite (DAKOTA) with the USGS MF-OWHM water management simulation tool to provide a flexible software environment that will enable the evaluation of one or multiple (possibly competing) user-defined (or stakeholder) objectives. We introduce the individual software components and outline the communication strategy we defined for the coupled development. We present numerical results for case studies related to crop portfolio management with several defined objectives. The objectives are not optimally satisfied for any single user class, demonstrating the capability of the software tool to aid in the evaluation of a variety of competing interests.


    1. Introduction

    The objective of this study is to demonstrate how data analytics applied to the energy sector, highlights trends in the residential building stock that can influence energy consumption and conservation. The study creates and examines an enriched database of 389,160 homes that totals to over 15 million datapoints. In addition, this paper builds on insight from previous work published by the authors that used specific data layering within the same database. The previous and published work examined 1) the influence of energy use intensity and total consumption in newer larger homes when compared to smaller older homes as a benchmarking indicator of potential energy savings [1], 2) the significant impact of swimming pools [2], and fireplaces [3] on energy consumption in the residential sector across all size and vintage category comparisons, and 3) energy engenderment [4] and the influence of socioeconomic, demographic, and household gendered energy decisions that can lead to opportunities for conservation [5] and better targeted utility programs at the zip code level [6].

    Residential energy consumption accounts for nearly 22% of total primary annual energy consumption in the United States [7]. Energy efficiency, often driven by financial benefits, is critical to the nation’s future and a key component towards achieving goals of energy security, energy independence, and reduced environmental impacts [8]. To accomplish these goals towards sustainable energy security and independence, it is important to be able to measure to manage.


    1.1. Measure to manage

    The “measure to manage” concept provides a framework to define and quantify variables of interest in order to track and direct change [9]. “In order to manage something, one needs to define and quantify it first. However, the measure needs to be effective and simple” [9]. To avoid overwhelming users with the sheer volume of data acquired, thoughtful consideration must be placed on “what data to collect, how often to collect it, and how to present the data collected” [10]. Before designing any energy information system, the “key performance indicators” need to be established to support the main goals [10]. According to Karamjeet “a management process requires three sound components to work effectively: 1) definition and quantification criteria, 2) judgment on limits and targets, and 3) management controls” [9]. Measure to manage approaches allow realistic goals to be set and then measure performance against those goals [10]. Edwards Deming has been attributed to the “if you can’t measure something, you can’t manage it” concept, however one of his seven deadly sins of management relates to being able to measure the right variables, which often are the variables that are immeasurable or qualitative in nature [11]. Measuring energy is often a function of utility operations. More needs to be achieved in understanding the influence of the residential infrastructure that drives the consumption.


    1.2. Managing energy

    Measure to manage is an important concept in the area of energy efficiency because it provides baseline numbers, “benchmarks” [12,13,14], or “yardsticks” [10] for energy use and factors affecting energy use [14]. These benchmarks are often lacking or are difficult to acquire in the commercial [12] and residential sectors [14]. Benchmarking energy use numbers can be used in a number of ways in both sectors in the interest of tracking, understanding and targeting buildings for efficient, cost-effective, and energy saving retrofits and interventions.

    Instability in oil and gas markets coupled with rising concerns over greenhouse gases and pollution have led to a renewed emphasis on energy use and an analysis of the efficiency of techniques designed to reduce energy consumption through programs such as stricter building codes [15]. Improved understanding of factors that influence energy consumption will help guide future policies that drive sustainability [15]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that energy consumption in the United States will increase 40% in the next two decades [16]. In the residential sector, the examination of more easily understood energy data, such as comparative billing, would lead to significant gains in energy efficiency [14].

    The measure to manage approach has emerged from business and finance, yet this study is one example of how the principle transposes to other sectors. This paper applies measure to manage to a large database to provide a better understanding of energy utilization for more informed decisions in the energy sector. Studies of energy efficiency in the residential sector often focus on the physical characteristics and technical factors of energy consumption [15]. However, residential energy consumption is dependent on many factors, including building characteristics (vintage, size, number and distribution of rooms, building type, and materials) [1,2,3] and demographic characteristics (household income, educational attainment, and family composition) [4,5,6]. Unfortunately that detailed and granular data is not always available and addressed geographically to the individual household level. This study is unique in its data layering approach to provide a massive 15 million datapoints georeferenced database by combining the data from various sources. This is where the measure to manage approach can help with understanding big data by highlighting outliers and clusters of data that lead to decisions that can influence energy consumption and promote future policies driving sustainability [15].


    1.3. The case study

    The State of Texas is one of the fastest growing states in the nation [17]. From 2000 to 2010 the population of the country grew by 9%, the Texas population grew by 21% and San Antonio grew by 16%, making it the second most populated city in Texas [18]. The population growth in San Antonio is being fueled by domestic migration as well as increased number of births by residents [17]. Examples of this migration can be attributed to a number of factors including the military base expansions, healthcare and biosciences growth, the renewed investment in oil, gas and non-traditional energy sources as well as production at the local Toyota plant [19].

    Sustainability is about integrating humans and the environment in a way that preserves both; it is about integrated decision-making involving systemic thinking, and recognizing the co-dynamic influence of human and natural systems [20]. Like other large metropolitan cities, sustainable growth is key for the progress of San Antonio, Texas. Managing energy and water resources is integral to the sustainable growth in both an economic and an environmental sense. A study on cohort effects states that electricity sales per residential housing unit increased 58%, nationwide, from 1970 to 2007 [21]. The current price of electricity at the time the home is constructed often plays an important role in the efficiency of the home thus, inefficient homes often remain inefficient at later points in time due to the durability of homes [21]. In this study, learning the energy trends of the various stocks of housing (past and present) will better allow for managed growth in the future and provide a good reference point for planning in other metropolitan areas facing growth opportunities.


    2. Description of data and methods


    2.1. Data sources

    Multiple layers of information are compiled, validated and segmented to develop the database utilized in this study including over 15 million records encompassing building attributes and monthly energy consumption data at the individual household level dating back to 2010 thru 2013. The database architecture includes:

    § Utility Bills: Segmented into electric and gas usage at the individual household building level for the year 2013.

    § Tax Assessor Data: Georeferenced to the utility bills and segmented to isolate single-family detached homes and their conditioned space square footage (size), year built (vintage), presence of a swimming pool, fireplace, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, participation in rebate programs (to include HVAC, lighting, windows, and water heater upgrades, weatherization, etc.), and energy efficiency certification from a local initiative - Build San Antonio Green (BSAG).

    § Weather Data: Historical weather data was retrieved from weather data depot using the location of the San Antonio International Airport and degree days were set to a reference temperature of 65 deg. F (18.3 deg. C).

    Segmenting the database to better manage the data was critical for the analysis. The resulting segmentation approach resulted in 389,160 single-family detached homes that are validated and used for the purpose of this study. During the validation process, homes with incomplete data records for the year 2013 are removed, so are homes with change of ownership, interruption of service, private records, duplicate records, and null records. Single-family detached homes represent the majority of residential building stock in San Antonio, Texas.

    Figure 1 demonstrates the database architecture for this study. Combined, the layers create a big data analysis opportunity for the dynamic trending of residential energy use in San Antonio, Texas separated by vintage and size, and enriched with an overlay of infrastructure properties.

    Figure 1.Database architecture

    2.2. Data architecture

    A relational database management system is implemented and data is encrypted and analyzed though structured query language (SQL) software and python programing. The database is queried using a set of aggregation and filtering functions provided by SQL. The architecture of the database is centered on one common attribute, the geolocation of each residential building. After encryption, an SQL serial number (an auto increment key) is used as the primary key for summary output tables containing desired estimated monthly energy consumption and all other infrastructure characteristics. The final output tables are exported in .csv format and include electricity and natural gas consumption data and building characteristics organized by size and vintage groups. Data challenges include common issues associated with processing and attribute extraction to include the use of nonstandard building codes and addresses, that require extensive validation through a programming framework (python, awk, ruby).


    2.3. Methods

    In an effort to characterize the energy impact of similar residential units, it is necessary to categorize the homes by vintage (year built) and size category, of which there are 8 of each, and fuel type. Homes built prior to 1950 are vintage 1, and each decade after that is categorized as a new vintage (i.e., homes built 1980-1989 are vintage 5). Homes sizes are broken into 500-sf (46.5 m2) ranges; with homes under 1000 sf (92.9 m2) being size category 1 and homes larger than 4000 sf (371.6 m2) are size category 8. The fuel types of homes are generally described as homes with access to gas and all-electric homes. Homes without additional features defined in the dataset such as pools or fireplaces are considered reference homes, and are used in comparative analyses.

    Site and source energy are also used when comparing across fuel types. Site energy is defined as the amount of energy, as billed by the utility, used by a building. It is often used when comparing buildings of similar fuel type. Source energy is defined as the amount of raw fuel needed to produce the site energy that is then consumed by the building, which incorporates the inefficiencies of different fuel types, expressed in kBtu (Eq. 1) or kWh (Eq. 2). The source-site ratios used, as published by the Energy Star Portfolio Manager, are 3.14 for electricity (grid purchase) and 1.05 for natural gas [22]. Data in this paper are in terms of site energy, unless otherwise specified.

    SourceEnergy(kBtu)=(Electricity(kBtu)3.14)+(Gas(kBtu)1.05) (Eq. 1)

    SourceEnergy(kWh)=SourceEnergy(kBtu)(1000Btu1kBtu)(1kWh3413Btu) (Eq. 2)

    To compare homes across vintage and size categories, the energy use intensity (also known as energy index, EI) is calculated as energy per area of conditioned floor space expressed in kBtu/sf (Eq. 3) or kWh/m2 (Eq. 4), utilizing the site energy of homes, as shown below.

    EnergyIndex(kBtu/sf)=(AnnualElectricityUse(kWh)3.413)+(AnnualGasUse(CCF)100)ConditionedFloorArea(sf) (Eq. 3)

    EnergyIndex(kWh/m2)=EnergyIndex(kBtusf)(1000Btu1kBtu)(1kWh3413Btu)(10.7639sf1m2) (Eq. 4)


    3. Results and discussions

    The objective of this paper is to identify trends in the residential building stock that can influence energy consumption and conservation through the use of data analytics. The following sections highlight the findings from analyses performed on almost 389,160 single-family detached homes in accordance to the proposed segmentation methodology. Results are presented for the year 2013, mainly, but similar trends are observed across the 4 years for which energy consumption information is available. Results presented here are representative of longer-term trends and patterns observed across the local geography.


    3.1. Long-term energy utilization within the residential building stock

    To better understand energy utilization across the study area, seasonal energy patterns over a 3-year period (2011-2013) are analyzed. When looking at the way single-family detached homes utilize energy throughout the year, it is evident, as shown in Figure 2, that on average about half (51-54% based on size category and 49-53% based on vintage category) of the energy is used to satisfy baseload purposes, about a third is used to satisfy cooling demands during the summer months (27-30% based on size category and 28-31% based on vintage category), about 12% is used for heating demands during the winter months (9-12% based on size category and 10-12% based on vintage category), and the balance is used during the shoulder months to offset heating and cooling needs during cooler and warmer days (7-9% based on size category and 8-9% based on vintage category).

    Figure 2.Seasonal energy utilization (2011-2013)

    Weather records indicate that 2012 was the mildest of the three years as evidenced by the lowest number of total degree-days across all seasons, Table 1. In contrast, 2011 was the warmest and coldest year and had the highest number of total degree-days. Abnormally hot summers (e.g., 2011) or cold winters (e.g., 2011) resulted in higher energy consumption driven by increased cooling and heating demands.

    Table 1.Total Degree-Days 2011-2013
    Year TDD during Cooling Season TDD during Heating Season TDD during Baseline Months Total TDD
    2011 3100 1208 1042 5350
    2012 2673 902 939 4514
    2013 2906 1005 1001 4912
     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV

    Furthermore, when looking at weather normalized baseload energy consumption (kBtu/TDD or kWh/TDD) by size category, as shown by Figure 3, it can be seen that larger homes tend to consume more energy to fulfill their basic needs. Large homes (Size 8, >4000 sf (>371.6 m2)) consume 5times more energy than small homes (Size 1, <1000 sf (<92.9 m2)). The pattern is very consistent across the 3-year period of analysis.

    Figure 3.Weather-normalized baseload energy utilization (2011-2013)

    3.2. Energy utilization by vintage and size

    The distribution of the number of single-family detached houses built in each decade and the corresponding average house size is shown in Table 2. The distribution and associated values are shown in Table 3 by size category. Also shown is the percent of total electric and gas consumption of all homes built in each vintage and size category. The majority of homes (70%) in this study are between 1000-2500 sf (92.9-232.3 m2) in size. Over 53% of all single-family detached houses in San Antonio were built after 1980. The number of new houses built increased by approximately 76% from the 1990s to the 2000s. However, the highest increase in house size in San Antonio is seen between the 1980s and 1990s when the average house size increased by approximately 29%, from 1787 sf (166 m2) to 2302 sf (213.9 m2). Nationwide, average house size has also increased over the past decades; however, at a much lower rate than San Antonio (16% increase nationwide between the 1980s and the 1990s) [3]. As building size increases, energy use increases due to the greater number of rooms, lighting, heating, and cooling demands [23]. Natural sunlight, ventilation, and shading can be utilized to supplement artificial light and reduce heating and cooling loads, reducing overall energy consumption and increasing sustainability of the building stock [23].

    Table 2.Summary of results: energy use and intensity by vintage
    VintageCategory Numberof HomesBuilt Average Sizesf (m2) Avg EI kBtu/sf (kWh/m2) Total ElectricityConsumption Total GasConsumption
    <1950 45,902 1309 (121.6) 64.6 (203.9) 10.1% 17.1%
    1950-1959 42,909 1318 (122.4) 60.4 (190.5) 9.1% 14.8%
    1960-1969 40,587 1516 (140.8) 54.3 (171.2) 9.0% 14.0%
    1970-1979 51,323 1649 (153.2) 51.5 (162.4) 12.0% 18.2%
    1980-1989 53,224 1787 (166.0) 44.3 (139.7) 14.2% 11.6%
    1990-1999 50,777 2302 (213.9) 34.8 (109.7) 15.6% 7.8%
    2000-2009 89,362 2352 (218.5) 32.4 (102.1) 26.3% 13.4%
    2010-2013 15,076 2410 (223.9) 28.4 (89.6) 3.6% 3.1%
     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV
    Table 3.Summary of results: energy use and intensity by size
    Size Category sf (m2) Numberof HomesBuilt Average Vintage Avg EI kBtu/sf (kWh/m2) Total ElectricityConsumption Total GasConsumption
    <1000 (<92.9) 42,840 1956 72.2 (227.6) 7.5% 11.3%
    1000-1499 (92.9-139.3) 114,239 1969 54.4 (171.5) 24.1% 30.0%
    1500-1999 (139.4-185.7) 94,482 1982 41.0 (129.3) 22.8% 21.0%
    2000-2499 (185.8-232.2) 61,928 1990 34.9 (110.0) 17.5% 13.1%
    2500-2999 (232.3-278.6) 38,876 1995 32.6 (102.9) 12.5% 9.5%
    3000-3499 (278.7-325.1) 21,117 1996 32.3 (101.9) 7.6% 6.8%
    3500-3999 (325.2-371.5) 8,194 1996 34.1 (107.7) 3.4% 3.6%
    >4000 (>371.6) 7484 1993 38.0 (119.9) 4.6% 4.8%
     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV

    Appropriate orientation of windows and rooms within the building can have a significant impact on the ability to utilize natural lighting and ventilation [23]. Energy use is also impacted by the presence of appliances in and around the home. Televisions and multimedia set-top boxes, found in most homes, contribute 6% of a home’s electricity consumption [16]. Homes with multiple televisions or set-top boxes will, therefore, consume an even greater amount of electricity.


    3.3. Other building attributes affecting energy utilization

    It is well documented in the literature and supported by previous results published by the authors that certain building features such as the size of the home (area of conditioned space) strongly influence the amount of energy consumed. The presence of other building features such as swimming pools, hot tubs, and fireplaces, as well as the number of stories, or the fuel type of the home, can also influence energy utilization patterns across vintage and size categories within the residential building sector. Homes with access to gas use, on average, 192,090 kBtu (56,282 kWh) of source energy on an annual basis while all-electric homes utilize, on average, 195,383 kBtu (57,247kWh) of source energy. The number of stories also shows an increasing trend related to energy consumption; however, square footage increases at a greater rate between one- and two-story homes. On average, one-story homes use 175,289 kBtu (51,359 kWh), and two-story homes use 232,645 kBtu (68,164 kWh) of source energy, equivalent to a 32.7% increase. Two-story homes are, in average, 70.6% larger than one-story homes meaning the relative increase in energy consumption is notably less than the increase in conditioned floor area of the home. Furthermore, the average energy index of two-story homes is 34.0 kBtu/sf (107.2kWh/m2) while the average energy index of one-story homes is 51.2 kBtu/sf (161.5 kWh/m2).

    A notable shift in building practices, and perhaps homebuyer preferences, is represented in Figure 4 where the 1980s symbolize the transition from single-story homes (about 85%) with access to natural gas (about 90%) to two-story (about 60% of new homes) and all-electric homes (about 70% of all homes built thereafter). Over 90% of the all-electric homes built in the county have been built since 1980. New homes built after 1980 were also bigger. Larger homes coupled with advances in technology and better building envelopes result in lower energy index values (EI < 50 kBtu/sf (157.7kWh/m2)) as shown in Table 2.

    Figure 4. Change of building stock by vintage (1900-2013) by fuel type and number of stories

    Homes built after 2010 have the lowest energy index values across all vintage categories, average EI of 28.44 kBtu/sf (89.69 kWh/m2). However, despite being more efficient -i.e. using less energy per area of conditioned space- the newer houses tend to be larger (average size 2410 sf (223.9m2)) and currently account for a large percentage of total electricity consumed. Over 155,000homes have been built in the area since 1990 (equivalent to about 40% of the homes being analyzed) and represent over 45% of the electricity and 24% of the natural gas consumed by all homes included in the study. In contrast, smaller houses (<1500 sf (<139.4 m2) in size) have higher EI values, a well-documented fact, and represent a relatively small percentage of total consumption.

    In addition to size and vintage, dwelling additions are known to affect energy consumption of homes. Figure 5 highlights the differences across various building stock categories and compares them to reference homes that do not have any dwelling additions such as swimming pools, fireplaces, etc. Three main drivers are shown alongside an increase in energy consumption: size of the home, presence of a swimming pool, and presence of a fireplace. The presence of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, participation in rebate programs, and certification through the BSAG program result in reduced energy consumption. There is an offset of energy savings in homes that present a multitude of both energy consuming and energy saving features, as is shown in the various permutations of building features displayed in Figure 5. Homes with a swimming pool are 35% larger than reference homes and use 49% more source energy on an annual basis. Homes with a fireplace, swimming pool, and certified thru the BSAG program have the highest average home size and highest average annual source energy, using 145% more energy than reference homes. The energy consumption of the fireplace and the pool outweigh the savings seen from BSAG certification in this case. The same can be seen in homes with a pool and BSAG certification, but is not seen in homes with a fireplace and BSAG certification.

    Figure 5.Summary of results: average source energy consumption in kBtu (kWh) and average home size in sf (m2) per house category for 2013

    To complement the information presented in Figure 5, average site energy and energy index values are presented in Figure 6. Homes with fireplaces and swimming pools exhibit the highest average site energy consumption. The average energy index of these homes is slightly lower than that of reference homes, mainly driven by the fact that homes with pools and fireplaces are almost twice as big as reference homes. Swimming pools and fireplaces remain a top user category even when energy-saving features (e.g., BSAG—green building certification) and participation in rebate programs are present highlighting the influence of the relationship that exists between the dwelling profile and energy consumption, as well as between the socioeconomic characteristics of a household and its resulting energy consumption [2].

    Figure 6.Summary of results: average site energy consumption in kBtu (kWh) and energy index in kBtu/sf (kWh/m2) per house category for 2013

    For example, houses with the lowest EI values are clustered in North San Antonio, and are newer and larger houses that tend to be more efficient (low EI values) yet consume more total energy and tend to have higher concentration of homes with PV and BSAG certified. In contrast, the southern portion of the city comprises houses with the highest EI values yet account for lower total energy consumption per household due to older and smaller homes [6]. The southern portion of the study area also has a higher percentage of older and smaller houses built pre-1970. A relatively consistent energy consumption pattern for homes built prior to 1970 is observed. Houses in the first three vintage groups (1900-1949, 1950-1959, 1960-1969) represent the smallest brackets of energy consumption across the study area.

    Table 4 lists the 2013 average energy consumption of the various dwelling types profiled in this study in comparison to the reference homes. The table also lists the p-values for the t-tests performed comparing the means of the various groups to reference homes. Alpha is set at 0.05 for all tests, thus showing that the mean energy consumption from all groups is significantly different from the mean energy consumption of reference homes. Statistical analyses are conducted to ensure an “apples to apples” comparison among categories. Reference homes are used as a baseline to facilitate highlighting the additional energy usage of various categories added such as swimming pools, fireplaces, solar photovoltaic systems, and homes that participated in a rebate program. This statistical method provides evidence of representative trends based on true variance in energy usage across groups as opposed to casual correlations that do not indicate causation.

    Table 4.2013 Site energy consumption differences based on average energy consumption across home categories in comparison to reference homes
    Category Average 2013Consumption kBtu (kWh) Comparison withReference Homes (p-value)
    Reference Homes 66,978 (19,624) --
    Homes with Fireplace & Pool 139,813 (40,965) <0.001
    Homes with Fireplace, Pool & PV 134,121 (39,297) <0.001
    Homes with Fireplace, Pool & Rebate 125,857 (36,876) <0.001
    Homes with Pools 97,451 (28,553) <0.001
    Homes with Pool & Rebate 97,449 (28,552) <0.001
    Homes with Fireplace & BSAG 80,679 (23,639) <0.001
    Homes with Fireplace 79,887 (23,407) <0.001
    Homes with Fireplace & PV 78,869 (23,108) <0.001
    Homes with Fireplace & Rebate 76,321 (22,362) <0.001
    Homes with Rebate 64,515 (18,903) <0.001
    Homes with PV 61,545 (18,032) 0.003
    Homes with BSAG 55,666 (16,310) <0.001
     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV

    Efficiency measures and rebate upgrades including the use of efficient HVAC systems, water heating, windows, lighting, weatherization, and proper use of programmable thermostats can improve the performance of a house and can provide cost effective upgrades for homeowners. As portrayed in Figure 6, homes with pools have lower energy index and site energy only when they have participated in a rebate program. The same can be seen when comparing homes with a fireplace and pool as well as homes with a fireplace, showing that rebate programs are effective at reducing energy consumption. Policies and incentives by local utilities and governments are key in influencing behaviors and promoting resource utilization efficiency. Better understanding of the socioeconomic characteristics and homeowners’ behaviors can improve the effectiveness of proposed efficiency and conservation measures and aid in developing programs tailored to the communities in which they will be implemented.


    4. Conclusions and implications

    This study increases awareness of energy consumption and energy use intensity patterns across vintage and size categories of single-family detached houses in San Antonio, Texas. Newer construction (homes built since 1990) not only accounts for the highest percentage of all building stock but it also accounts for the highest proportion of total energy consumption in the entire city. Data analyzed correlates the energy efficiency improvements brought about by the relatively recent implementation of building codes to improvements in intensity trends in these larger residential units. Meanwhile, data analytics through the implementation of a sound segmentation methodology has allowed the researchers to measure impacts from homestead additions such as swimming pools, fireplaces, and other building features.

    This study shows higher consumption brackets based on the presence of building features such as swimming pools, fireplaces, and larger home sizes, while lower consumption brackets are based on the presence of photovoltaic panels, participation in rebate programs, and BSAG certification. Homes with a pool, fireplace, and BSAG certification have the highest source energy consumption and the highest average size of all the categories, showing that home size along with energy consuming additions offset green measures (e.g., PV, BSAG certification, and rebates).

    As utilities aim to provide better, smarter, and more secure services, energy efficiency will impact their bottom line. However, as the behavioral and education adjustments of homeowners switch to more connected and smarter devices, the consumer will target energy efficiency not just from a virtue, but also from a cost cutting and environmental protection perspective. The study also shows that homes that participate in programs aimed at reducing energy consumption, including BSAG certification and rebate programs, are effective at lowering both the energy index and site energy consumption. Further studies in delineating rebate program types will provide insight into the effectiveness of specific rebates.

    As the city of San Antonio, Texas continues to experience rapid population growth patterns over the next decade the local utility continues to proactively develop energy saving opportunities. As “population and affluence rise” the potential effect on the environment can be the “business-as-usual and policy-induced efficiency gains” of the locality [24]. The analyses in this study verify the importance of creating a varied portfolio of energy management and targeted programs, more so, highlighting the significance of utilizing benchmarking and measuring to manage methodologies across utilities’ service territories. In all, old versus new houses, small versus large houses, efficient versus less efficient houses, houses with or without swimming pools, all these characteristics and performance indicators constitute opportunities for developing targeted energy conservation plans and programs that can be prioritized for cost effectiveness and applicability based on customers’ needs and preferences while keeping municipalities secure, service oriented, and environmentally compliant.


    Acknowledgement

    This project and the preparation of this study were funded in part by monies provided by CPS Energy through an Agreement with The University of Texas at San Antonio. Special thanks to research assistants Dennise Castillo, Carlos Contreras, Vidal Ramirez, and Rahul Nair.


    Conflicts of interest

    All authors declare no conflicts of interest in this paper.


    About the authors

    Afamia Elnakat, Ph.D., R.E.M. is an Associate Professor of Research at the University of Texas at San Antonio’s Texas Sustainable Energy Research Institute. She is also teaching faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering. Her background is in reducing environmental impacts on natural resources through sustainable engineering practices. Dr. Elnakat’s current research focuses on big data analysis in the energy and water sector while coupling behavioral influence. Her ultimate goal is bridging the gap between scientific knowledge and its application to environmentally sound public policy. Dr. Elnakat currently serves as a tri-chair for the SATomorrow planning effort.

    Juan D. Gomez, Ph.D., P.E. is the Interim Director of the University of Texas at San Antonio’s Texas Sustainable Energy Research Institute. He is also an Associate Professor of Research with a background in chemical and environmental engineering and has a previous nine-year tenure in a global technology group for a large engineering firm. He worked on design and infrastructure projects throughout the USA and internationally. Currently, he leads strategic initiatives for the institute in the fields of energy efficiency, SmartLivingTM cities, water (treatment, planning, reclamation, desalination, dynamic simulation), energy/water nexus, carbon emissions inventories and management, and electrification of transportation.

    Martha Wright is a Research Analyst at the University of Texas at San Antonio’s Texas Sustainable Energy Research Institute. With her background in environmental science, her work at the institute is focused on project management and research in sustainability including carbon management, transportation, energy efficiency, and water.


    [1] M. Maupin, J. Kenny, S. Hutson, J. Lovelace, N. Barber and K. Linsey, (2014), Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010, Circular 1405, U.S. Geological Survey, Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/cir1405.
    [2] I. James and S. Reilly, (2015), Pumped beyond limits, many U.S. aquifers in decline, The Desert Sun.
    [3] J. Thomas, G. Stanton, J. Bumgarner, D. Pearson, A. Teeple, N. Houston, J. Payne and M. Musgrove, (2013), A conceptual hydrogeologic model for the hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, and groundwater-flow system of the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas, Fact Sheet 2013-3024, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [4] F. Morris, (2013), Western Kansas farmers face dwindling water supply, Available from: http: //hereandnow.wbur.org/2013/08/19/kansas-farmers-water.
    [5] D. Steward, P. Bruss, X. Yang, S. Staggenborg, S. Welch and M. Apley, (2013), Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110: E3477–E3486.
    [6] J. Peterson and Y. Ding, (2004), Economic adjustments to groundwater depletion in the High Plains: Do water-saving irrigation systems save water?, Am. J. Agr. Econ., 87: 147–159.
    [7] V. McGuire, M. Johnson, R. Schie er, J. Stanton, S. Sebree and I. Verstraeten, (2002), Water in storage and groundwater management approaches, High Plains Aquifer, 2000, Circular, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [8] J. Musick, F. Pringle,W. Harman and B. Stewart, (1990), Long-term irrigation trends – Texas High Plains, Appl. Eng. Agric., 6: 717–724.
    [9] M. Sophocleous, (2010), Review: groundwater management practices, challenges, and innovations in the High Plains Aquifer, USA – lessons and recommended actions, Hydrogeol. J., 18: 559–575.
    [10] California Water Science Center, (2016), The California drought, Available from: http://ca. water.usgs.gov/data/drought/drought-impact.html.
    [11] V. McGuire, (2014), Water-level changes and change in water in storage in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2013 and 2011–2013, Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5218, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [12] B. Scanlon, C. Faunt, L. Longuevergne, R. Reedy, W. Alley, V. McGuire and P. McMahon, (2012), Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley, PNAS, 109: 9320–9325.
    [13] J. Medina, (2015), California cuts farmers’ share of scant water, The New York Times, Available from: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/13/us/ california-announces-restrictions-on-water-use-by-farmers.html?_r=0.
    [14] D. Charles, (2013), Kansas farmers commit to taking less water from the ground, All Things Considered, Available from: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2013/10/22/230702453/ in-kansas.
    [15] H. Wells, (2015), Vegetables and pulses, Available from: http:www.ers.usda.gov/topics/ crops/vegetables-pulses.aspx.
    [16] D. Goolsby, (2015), Coachella Valley agriculture industry continues growing, The Desert Sun.
    [17] H. Cooley, K. Connelly, R. Phurisamban and M. Subramanian, (2015), Impacts of California’s Ongoing Drought: Agriculture, Technical report, Pacific Institute, Oakland, CA, Available from: http://pacinst.org/publication/ impacts-of-californias-ongoing-drought-agriculture/.
    [18] W. Gomaa, N. Harraz and A. el Tawil, (2011), Crop planning and water management: A survey, in Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Computers & Industrial Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, 319–324.
    [19] J. Dury, N. Schaller, F. Garcia, A. Reynaud and J. Bergez, (2012), Models to support cropping plan and crop rotation decisions: a review, Agronomy Sust. Developm., 32: 567–580.
    [20] P. deVoil, W. Rossing and G. Hammer, (2006), Exploring profit – sustainability trade-o s in cropping systems using evolutionary algorithms, Environ. Modell. Softw., 21: 1368–1374.
    [21] J. E. Annetts and E. Audsley, (2002), Multiple objective linear programming for environmental farm planning, J Oper. Res. Soc., 53: 933–943.
    [22] R. Beneke and R. Winterboer, (1984), Linear Programming. Applications to Agriculture, Aedos.
    [23] J. Groot, G. Oomen and W. Rossing, (2012), Multi-objective optimization and design of farming systems, Agr. Syst., 110: 63–77.
    [24] B. Sahoo, A. Lohani and R. Sahu, (2006), Fuzzy multiobjective and linear programming based management models for optimal land-water-crop system planning, Water Resour. Manag., 20: 931–948.
    [25] R. Sarker and T. Ray, (2009), An improved evolutionary algorithm for solving multi-objective crop planning models, Comput. Electron. Agric., 68: 191–199.
    [26] R. Hanson, S. Boyce,W. Schmid, J. Hughes, S. Mehl, S. Leake, T. Maddock III and R. Niswonger, (2014), One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW–OWHM), Techniques and Methods 6- A51, U.S. Geological Survey, Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/tm6A51.
    [27] W. Schmid and R. Hanson, (2009), The Farm Process Version 2 (FMP2) for MODFLOW-2005 — Modifications and Upgrades to FMP1, Techniques in Water Resources Investigations 6-A32, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [28] C. Faunt, R. Hanson, K. Belitz and L. Rogers, (2009), California’s Central Valley Groundwater Study: A powerful new tool to assess water resources in California’s Central Valley, Fact Sheet 2009-3057, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [29] C. Faunt, C. Stamos, L. Flint, M. Wright, M. Burgess, M. Sneed, J. Brandt, A. Coes and P. Martin, (2015), Hydrogeology, hydrologic e ect of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California, Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5150, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [30] R. Hanson,W. Schmid, J. Lear and C. Faunt, (2008), Simulation of an aquifer-storage-and-recovery (ASR) system for agricultural water supply using the farm process in MODFLOW for the Pajaro Valley, Monterey Bay, California, in MODFLOW and More 2008: Groundwater and Public Policy, International Ground Water Modeling Center, Colorado School of Mines, 501–505.
    [31] R. Hanson, W. Schmid, J. Knight and T. Maddock III, (2013), Integrated hydrologic modeling of a transboundary aquifer system - Lower Rio Grande, in MODFLOW and More 2013: Translating Science into Practice, International Ground Water Modeling Center, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, 5 p.
    [32] R. Hanson,W. Schmid, C. Faunt and B. Lockwood, (2010), Simulation and analysis of conjunctive use with MODFLOW’s farm process, Ground Water, 48: 674–689.
    [33] W. Schmid, J. P. King and T. Maddock III, (2009), Conjunctive Surface-water/groundwater Model in the Southern Rincon Valley Using MODFLOW-2005 with the Farm Process, Technical report, New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute.
    [34] R. Hanson, W. Schmid, C. Faunt, J. Lear and B. Lockwood, (2014), Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterery Counties, California, Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5111, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [35] R. Hanson, L. Flint, A. Flint, M. Dettinger, C. Faunt, D. Cayan and W. Schmid, (2012), A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes, Water Resour. Res., 48: 23.
    [36] B. Adams, L. Bauman, W. Bohnho , K. Dalbey, M. Ebeida, J. Eddy, M. Eldred, P. Hough, K. Hu, J. Jakeman, L. Swiler and D. Vigil, (2009), DAKOTA: A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 5.4 User’s Manual, Technical report SAND2010-2183, Sandia National Laboratories (updated April 2013).
    [37] K. Fowler, E. Jenkins, C. Ostrove, J. Chrispell, M. Farthing and M. Parno, (2014), A decision making framework with MODFLOW-FMP2 via optimization: Determining trade-o s in crop selection, Environ. Modell. Softw., 69: 280–291.
    [38] N. Lehmann, R. Finger, T. Klein, P. Calanca and A. Walter, (2013), Adapting crop management practices to climate change: Modeling optimal solutions at the field scale, Agr. Syst., 117: 55–65.
    [39] S. Lautenbach, M. Volk, M. Stauch and G. Whittaker, (2013), Optimization-based trade-o analysis of biodiesel crop production for managing agricultural catchment, Environ. Modell. Softw., 48: 98– 112.
    [40] J. Bokhiria, K. Fowler and E. Jenkins, (2014), Modelling and optimization for crop portfolio management under limited irrigation strategies, Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, 2: 1–13.
    [41] P. Steduto, T. Hsiao, E. Fereres and D. Raes, (2012), Crop Yield Response to Water, FAO irrigation and drainage, Paper 66, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
    [42] A. Harbaugh, (2005), MODFLOW-2005: The U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model: The groundwater flow process, Techniques and Methods 6-A16, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [43] W. Schmid, R. Hanson, T. M. III and S. Leake, (2006), User guide for the farm process (FMP1) for the U.S. Geological Survey’s modular three-dimensional finite-di erence ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000, Techniques and Methods 6-A17, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [44] R. Hanson and W. Schmid, (2013), Economic Resilience through “One-Water” Management, Open File Report 2013-1175, U. S. Geological Survey.
    [45] W. Schmid, R. Hanson, S. Leake, J. Hughes and R. Niswonger, (2014), Feedback of land subsidence on the movement and conjunctive use of water resources, Environ. Modell. Softw., 62: 253–270.
    [46] I. Ferguson and D. Llewellyn, (2015), Simulation of Rio Grande project operations in the Rincon and Mesilla Basins: Summary of model configuration and results, Technical Memorandum 86– 68210–2015–05, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
    [47] G. Schoups, C. Addams, J. Minjares and S. Gorelick, (2006), Sustainable conjunctive water management in irrigated agriculture: Model formulation and application to the Yaqui Valley, Mexico, Water Resour. Res., 42: 19.
    [48] W. Schmid and R. Hanson, (2007), Simulation of intra- or trans-boundary water-rights hierarchies using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000, J. Water Res. Pl. – ASCE, 133: 166–178.
    [49] S. Boyce and R. Hanson, (2015), An integrated approach to conjunctive–use analysis with the one– water hydrologic flow model, MODFLOW-OWHM, in MODFLOW and More 2015: Modeling a Complex World – Integrated Modeling to Understand and Manage Water Supply, Water Quality, and Ecology, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, 6–10.
    [50] S. Boyce, (2015), Model Reduction via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition of Transient Confined and Unconfined Groundwater Flow, PhD thesis, University of California Los Angeles.
    [51] S. Boyce, T. Nishikawa and W. Yeh, (2015), Reduced order modeling of the Newton formulation of MODFLOW to solve unconfined groundwater flow, Adv. Water Res., 83: 250–262.
    [52] C. Faunt, (2009), Groundwater availability of the Central Valley aquifer, California, Professional Paper 1766, U. S. Geological Survey.
    [53] R. Hanson, B. Lockwood and W. Schmid, (2014), Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California, J. Hydrol., 519: 131–147.
    [54] R. Hanson, L. Flint, C. Faunt, D. Gibbs and W. Schmid, (2014), Hydrologic models and analysis of water availability in Cuyama Valley, California, Science Investigations Report 2014-5150, U.S. Geological Survey, Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20145150.
    [55] R. Hanson and D. Sweetkind, (2014), Water availability in Cuyama Valley, California, Fact Sheet FS2014-3075, U.S. Geological Survey.
    [56] T. Russo, A. Fisher and B. Lockwood, (2014), Assessment of managed aquifer recharge site suitability using a GIS and modeling, Ground Water, 53: 1–12.
    [57] H. Maier, Z. Kapelan, J. Kasprzyk, J. Kollat, L. Matott, M. Cunha, G. Dandy, M. Gibbs, E. Keedwell, A. Marchi, A. Ostfeld, D. Savic, D. Solomatine, J. Vrugt, A. Zecchin, B. Minsker, E. Barbour, G. Kuczera and F. Pasha, (2014), Evolutionary algorithms and other metaheuristics in water resources: Current status, research challenges and future directions, Environ. Modell. Softw., 62: 271–299.
    [58] J. Eddy and K. Lewis, (2001), E ective generation of Pareto sets using genetic programming, in Proceedings DETC ’01: ASME 2001 Design Engineering Technical Conferences, Pittsburgh, PA, 1–9.
    [59] K. Demchak, J. Harper and L. Klime, Strawberry production, Available from: http://extension.psu.edu/business/ag-alternatives/horticulture/fruits/ strawberry-production#section-4.
    [60] R. Smith, A. Baameur, M. Bari, M. Cahn, D. Giraud, E. Natwick and E. Takele, Artichoke production in California, Available from: http://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/7221.pdf.
    [61] M. LeStrange, M. Cahn, S. Koike, R. Smith, O. Daugovish, S. Fennimore, E. Natwick, S. Dara, E. Takele and M. Cantwell, Artichoke production in California, Available from: http://anrcatalog.ucanr.edu/pdf/7211.pdf.
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2016 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Metrics

Article views(9513) PDF downloads(1986) Cited by(2)

Article outline

Figures and Tables

Figures(6)  /  Tables(3)

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog