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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2005, Volume 2, Issue 2: 263-277. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.263
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Incubation-time distribution in back-calculation applied to HIV/AIDS data in India

  • 1.
    Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012.
  • 2.
    Institute of Health Science, Faculty of Medicine, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, 734-8551
  • Received: 01 June 2004 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 01 March 2005

  • MSC : 92A15,62A10.

  • In this article, HIV incidence density is estimated from prevalence data and then used together with reported cases of AIDS to estimate incubation-time distribution. We used deconvolution technique and maximum likelihood method to estimate parameters. The effect of truncation in hazard was also examined. The mean and standard deviation obtained with the Weibull assumption were 12.9 and 3.0 years, respectively. The estimation seemed useful to investigate distribution of time between report of HIV infection and that of AIDS development. If we assume truncation, the optimum truncating point was sensitive to the HIV growth assumed. This procedure was applied to US data for validating the results obtained from the Indian data. The results show that method works well.

    Citation: Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Masayuki Kakehashi. Incubation-time distribution in back-calculation applied to HIV/AIDS data in India[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2005, 2(2): 263-277. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.263

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  • In this article, HIV incidence density is estimated from prevalence data and then used together with reported cases of AIDS to estimate incubation-time distribution. We used deconvolution technique and maximum likelihood method to estimate parameters. The effect of truncation in hazard was also examined. The mean and standard deviation obtained with the Weibull assumption were 12.9 and 3.0 years, respectively. The estimation seemed useful to investigate distribution of time between report of HIV infection and that of AIDS development. If we assume truncation, the optimum truncating point was sensitive to the HIV growth assumed. This procedure was applied to US data for validating the results obtained from the Indian data. The results show that method works well.


  • This article has been cited by:

    1. P. M.A. Sloot, S. V. Ivanov, A. V. Boukhanovsky, D. A.M.C. van de Vijver, C. A.B. Boucher, Stochastic simulation of HIV population dynamics through complex network modelling, 2008, 85, 0020-7160, 1175, 10.1080/00207160701750583
    2. Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, A note on derivation of the generating function for the right truncated Rayleigh distribution, 2006, 19, 08939659, 789, 10.1016/j.aml.2005.04.018
    3. Angelina Mageni Lutambi, The effect of delayed death in HIV/AIDS models, 2016, 10, 1751-3758, 286, 10.1080/17513758.2016.1179801
    4. Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Incubation periods under various anti-retroviral therapies in homogeneous mixing and age-structured dynamical models: A theoretical approach, 2015, 45, 0035-7596, 10.1216/RMJ-2015-45-3-973
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  • © 2005 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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