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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2009, Volume 6, Issue 3: 427-450. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.427
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HIV model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives

  • 1.
    University of Botswana, P B 0022, Gaborone
  • Received: 01 February 2008 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 01 June 2009

  • MSC : Primary: 92D30; Secondary: 92B05; 34D23.

  • We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc≈1.3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.

    Citation: Esther Chigidi, Edward M. Lungu. HIV model incorporating differential progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced infectives[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2009, 6(3): 427-450. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.427

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  • We formulate an HIV/AIDS deterministic model which incorporates differential infectivity and disease progression for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HIV/AIDS infectives. To illustrate our model, we have applied it to estimate adult HIV prevalence, the HIV population, the number of new infectives and the number of AIDS deaths for Botswana for the period 1984 to 2012. It is found that the prevalence peaked in the year 2000 and the HIV population is now decreasing. We have also found that under the current conditions, the reproduction number is Rc≈1.3, which is less than the 2004 estimate of Rc ≃ 4 by [11] and [13]. The results in this study suggest that the HAART program has yielded positive results for Botswana.


  • This article has been cited by:

    1. Shu Su, Christopher Kincaid Fairley, Limin Mao, Nicholas A. Medland, Jun Jing, Feng Cheng, Lei Zhang, Estimates of the national trend of drugs use during 2000–2030 in China: A population-based mathematical model, 2019, 93, 03064603, 65, 10.1016/j.addbeh.2019.01.022
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