Comparing regional and provincial-wide COVID-19 models with physical distancing in British Columbia

Geoffrey McGregor; Jennifer Tippett; Andy T.S. Wan; Mengxiao Wang; Samuel W.K. Wong; Geoffrey McGregor; Jennifer Tippett; Andy T.S. Wan; Mengxiao Wang; Samuel W.K. Wong

doi:10.3934/math.2022376

AIMS Mathematics

2022, Volume 7, Issue 4: 6743-6778. doi: 10.3934/math.2022376

Previous Article Next Article

Research article Special Issues

Comparing regional and provincial-wide COVID-19 models with physical distancing in British Columbia

1.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada
2.
School of Health Sciences, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada
3.
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada

Received: 19 April 2021 Revised: 07 November 2021 Accepted: 18 January 2022 Published: 25 January 2022
MSC : 62F15, 62P10, 92D30

We study the effects of physical distancing measures for the spread of COVID-19 in regional areas within British Columbia, using the reported cases of the five provincial Health Authorities. Building on the Bayesian epidemiological model of Anderson et al. ^[1], we propose a hierarchical regional Bayesian model with time-varying regional parameters between March to December of 2020. In the absence of COVID-19 variants and vaccinations during this period, we examine the regionalized basic reproduction number, modelled prevalence, relative reduction in contact due to physical distancing, and proportion of anticipated cases that have been tested and reported. We observe significant differences between the regional and provincial-wide models and demonstrate the hierarchical regional model can better estimate regional prevalence, especially in rural regions. These results indicate that it can be useful to apply similar regional models to other parts of Canada or other countries.
- compartmental models,
- epidemiology,
- COVID-19,
- ordinary differential equations,
- Bayesian hierarchical modelling,
- parameter estimation,
- Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Citation: Geoffrey McGregor, Jennifer Tippett, Andy T.S. Wan, Mengxiao Wang, Samuel W.K. Wong. Comparing regional and provincial-wide COVID-19 models with physical distancing in British Columbia[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2022, 7(4): 6743-6778. doi: 10.3934/math.2022376

Related Papers:

Abstract

We study the effects of physical distancing measures for the spread of COVID-19 in regional areas within British Columbia, using the reported cases of the five provincial Health Authorities. Building on the Bayesian epidemiological model of Anderson et al. ^[1], we propose a hierarchical regional Bayesian model with time-varying regional parameters between March to December of 2020. In the absence of COVID-19 variants and vaccinations during this period, we examine the regionalized basic reproduction number, modelled prevalence, relative reduction in contact due to physical distancing, and proportion of anticipated cases that have been tested and reported. We observe significant differences between the regional and provincial-wide models and demonstrate the hierarchical regional model can better estimate regional prevalence, especially in rural regions. These results indicate that it can be useful to apply similar regional models to other parts of Canada or other countries.

References

[1]	S. C. Anderson, A. M. Edwards, M. Yerlanov, N. Mulberry, J. E. Stockdale, S. A. Iyaniwura, et al., Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing, PLOS Comput. Biol., 16 (2020), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008274 doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008274
[2]	M. G. Baker, N. Wilson, T. Blakely, Elimination could be the optimal response strategy for COVID-19 and other emerging pandemic diseases, BMJ, 371 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4907
[3]	A. Bakhta, T. Boiveau, Y. Maday, O. Mula, Epidemiological Forecasting with Model Reduction of Compartmental Models. Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic, Biology, 10 (2021), 22. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10010022 doi: 10.3390/biology10010022
[4]	BC Centre for Disease Control, BC Centre for Disease Control: COVID-19 Variants, 2021. Available from: http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/about-covid-19/variants.
[5]	BC Centre for Disease Control, BC COVID-19 Data, 2021. Available from: http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data.
[6]	BC Centre for Disease Control, British Columbia (BC) COVID-19 Situation Report Week 13: March 28–April 3, 2021. Available from: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/Week_13_2021_BC_COVID-19_Situation_Report.pdf.
[7]	BC Centre for Disease Control, COVID-19: One Year of the Pandemic in BC, 2021. Available from: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/CovidBriefing_20210311.pdf.
[8]	B. Carpenter, A. Gelman, M. D. Hoffman, D. Lee, B. Goodrich, et al., Stan: A probabilistic programming language, J. Stat. Softw., 76 (2017), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v076.i01 doi: 10.18637/jss.v076.i01
[9]	S. Chang, E. Pierson, P. W. Koh, J. Gerardin, B. Redbird, D. Grusky, et al., Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening, Nature, 589 (2021), 82–87. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2923-3 doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2923-3
[10]	X. Chen, H. Chen, Differences in Preventive Behaviors of COVID-19 between Urban and Rural Residents: Lessons Learned from A Cross-Sectional Study in China, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 17 (2020), 4437. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17124437 doi: 10.3390/ijerph17124437
[11]	Y.-C. Chen, P.-E. Lu, C.-S. Chang, T.-H. Liu, A Time-Dependent SIR Model for COVID-19 With Undetectable Infected Persons, IEEE T. Netw. Sci. Eng., 7 (2020), 3279–3294. https://doi.org/10.1109/TNSE.2020.3024723 doi: 10.1109/TNSE.2020.3024723
[12]	P. L. Delamater, E. J. Street, T. F. Leslie, Y. Yang, K. H. Jacobsen, Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0), Emerg. Infect. Dis., 25 (2019), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2501.171901 doi: 10.3201/eid2501.171901
[13]	O. Diekmann, J. Heesterbeek, J. Metz, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio $R_0$ in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations, J. Math. Biol., 28 (1990), 365–382. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00178324 doi: 10.1007/BF00178324
[14]	S. Garasia, G. Dobbs, Socioeconomic determinants of health and access to health care in rural Canada, Univ. Tor. Med. J., 96 (2019), 44–46.
[15]	M. Ghoussoub, B.C. puts new rules on restaurants, bars, nightclubs amid rising COVID-19 numbers, 2020. Available from: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/update-covid-19-bc-july-22-1.5656611.
[16]	Government of Canada, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Outbreak update, 2021. Available from: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a.
[17]	Health Canada, Social determinants of health and health inequalities, 2018. Available from: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/population-health/what-determines-health.html.
[18]	Z. Hu, Y. Wu, M. Su, L. Xie, A. Zhang, X. Lin, et al., Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China, BMC Public Health, 21 (2021), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10605-2 doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-10605-2
[19]	Interior Health, Health Authority Profile 2020, 2020. Available from: https://www.interiorhealth.ca/AboutUs/QuickFacts/PopulationLocalAreaProfiles/Documents/Interior%20Health%20Authority%20Profile.pdf.
[20]	V. A. Karatayev, M. Anand, C. T. Bauch, Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (2020), 24575–24580. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014385117 doi: 10.1073/pnas.2014385117
[21]	N. Martins, CityNews: COVID-19 variant arrives in B.C., 2021. Available from: https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/12/27/covid-19-variant-bc/.
[22]	MIDAS Network, 2019 Novel Coronavirus Repository, 2021. Available from: https://github.com/midas-network/COVID-19.
[23]	A. Migdal, CBCNews: 64-year-old residential care aide is 1st person in B.C. to receive COVID-19 vaccine, 2020. Available from: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/first-covid-19-vaccine-in-bc-1.5842455.
[24]	L. A. Shafer, M. Nesca, R. Balshaw, Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact on COVID-19 epidemic in Manitoba, Canada, PLOS ONE, 16 (2021), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244537 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244537
[25]	I. Sirkeci, M. M. Yucesahin, Coronavirus and migration: analysis of human mobility and the spread of Covid-19, Migr. Lett., 17 (2020), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v17i2.935 doi: 10.33182/ml.v17i2.935
[26]	Stan development team, Prior Choice Recommendations, 2020. Available from: https://github.com/stan-dev/stan/wiki/Prior-Choice-Recommendations.
[27]	Statistics Canada, Few Canadians had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in early 2021, 2021. Available from: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210706/dq210706a-eng.htm.
[28]	P. J. Turk, S.-H. Chou, M. A. Kowalkowski, P. P. Palmer, J. S. Priem, M. D. Spencer, et al., Modeling COVID-19 Latent Prevalence to Assess a Public Health Intervention at a State and Regional Scale: Retrospective Cohort Study, JMIR Public Health Sur., 6 (2020), 19353. https://doi.org/10.2196/19353 doi: 10.2196/19353
[29]	P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6
[30]	C. Zhan, C. K. Tse, Z. Lai, X. Chen, M. Mo, General Model for COVID-19 Spreading With Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing, and Active Intervention: Modeling Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and the United States, JMIR public health sur., 6 (2020), e18880. https://doi.org/10.2196/18880 doi: 10.2196/18880

Reader Comments

Your name:*

Email:*
© 2022 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)