1.
Introduction
Access to modern energy services plays a critical role in nations' socioeconomic development by raising the standard of living and the quality of life [1]. However, we live in a paradoxical world where there are abundant resources but insufficient energy, particularly in developing countries such as sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the region's vast energy potential, more than 620 million people lack access to electricity, and nearly 730 million rely on risky, inefficient cooking methods, a dependency that disproportionately affects women and children. Meanwhile, those who do have access to modern energy will pay exorbitant prices for insufficient and unreliable supplies [2].
Ethiopia, a sub-Saharan African country, has an abundance of renewable energy resources, including hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, and biomass [3]. Despite the abundance of available potential, the country has one of the lowest levels of clean energy access in the world, and the country relies largely on biomass energy as a source of energy, primarily for household use [4]. According to a 2017 report from Ethiopia's ministry of water, irrigation, and electricity, household connectivity is only about 25% while access to the electric grid is around 56 percent [5]. Hydropower generates the majority of the electricity that is integrated into the national grid, accounting for about 87 percent of the country's total 4,674 MW of energy production capacity [6]. The country's hydroelectric resource potential is estimated to be up to 45,000 MW, ranking it in second place in Africa behind the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Table 1 shows the country's exploitable energy potential and the percentage exploited. Based on the estimated hydropower potential, approximately 30,000 MW of hydropower production at various sizes is estimated to be economically feasible [8], generating 162 TWh of electricity [3]. However, the country produces only about 14.29 TWh of hydroelectric power, which is only about 10% of the country's economically feasible hydropower generation potential. Given the country's energy resource potential for hydroelectric power utilization, this capacity is clearly insufficient to serve a population of more than 105 million people [3].
As a result, the Ethiopian government is currently working extensively in exploiting the country's energy resource potential in order to address the issue of energy access in society. They are also working to become a major power exporter in the Horn of Africa, thereby creating new economic opportunities and improving energy security through cooperation and collaboration in the development of a green economy. Therefore, the goal of this study is to examine the country's hydropower development in order to meet society's energy demand while also boosting the country's socioeconomic development. Furthermore, in the context of the construction of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam, this research helps to the updating of current information and understanding about the hydropower geopolitics of Nile basin countries (GERD).
2.
Methodology
This article is based on a review of the most recent scientific literature presented in journals, books on hydropower development, internet sources, and country data obtained from Ethiopia's ministries of water, irrigation, and energy, as well as international organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and World Bank reports to collect qualitative and quantitative data. A thorough review of the literature on Ethiopia's hydropower development and Nile basin hydro-politics has been conducted. The article is divided into six sections: section 1 contains an introduction and a literature review on the status of hydropower development in Ethiopia, and section 2 discusses methodology parts. Section 3 provides a brief overview of Ethiopia's current energy consumption status. Section 4 examines the country's hydropower potential and development status, while section 5 reviews about construction of controversial Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Nile basin's hydro-politics. Finally, section 6 provides a thorough conclusion to this article.
3.
Current status of energy consumption in Ethiopia
Ethiopia is one of the countries in the Horn of Africa with underutilized energy resources. The majority of Ethiopia's energy supply, like that of many other African countries, comes from waste and biomass fuel, accounting for up to 86.48 percent of the total 1,878,972 TJ primary energy supply, followed by oil at 9.99 percent, hydropower at 2.79 percent, and the remainder from solar and coal [12]. Figure 1 shows the country primary energy supply by source.
Based on sector energy consumption in Ethiopia household sector consumes about 88.2 percent of total energy supply, followed by the transportation sector (8.4 percent) and 3% by industry [3,12]. However, the majority of energy supply in household sector thereby is covered by bio-energy while a transport sector is predominantly run by imported petroleum [3,13]. In 2020, total electricity generation capacity of the country was 4,713 MW with 86 percent produced from hydro, 6 percent from bio-energy, 7 percent from wind and 1 percent from non-renewable sources [14]. According to the IEA report in 2019, the country's national electrification rate is still very low, at around 48.3 percent [12]. Furthermore, there is a stark differences in the rate of electricity access between urban and rural areas; in urban areas, 92.8 percent of the population has access to electricity, whereas in rural areas, access to electricity remains extremely low at around 36.3 percent [12,15]. As a result, the vast majority of the population lives in rural areas and relies heavily on traditional biomass energy sources for cooking and heating [1,15].
The estimated electricity consumption per capita of the country by 2017 was 100 kWh and increased to about 130 kWh by 2019 [17]. However, this capacity is certainly too small considering energy resource potential of the country for both conventional and renewable energy utilization [3]. As a result, this study provides relevant information on hydroelectric power development as well as the current state of the energy sector. Furthermore, it reviews the hydro-political crisis between Nile river basin countries towards the construction of GERD.
4.
Ethiopia hydropower potential and development status
Hydropower can serve as a bridge into a transition to more sustainable sources of energy due to its large potential development scale, environmentally friendly nature, and lower average cost of electricity generated than any other energy generation technology [18]. The technical hydropower potential in Africa is estimated to be around 283 GW and capable of generating close to 1200 TWh per year, accounting for 8% of the global technical potential. It is estimated that 90% of hydropower potential in the continent is still untapped [3,15]. In 2018, nearly half of Africans (600 million people) lacked access to electricity, and roughly 80% of sub-Saharan African businesses experienced frequent power outages, resulting in economic losses. Furthermore, more than 70% of the population, or approximately 900 million people, lack access to clean cooking fuel [19].
Ethiopia, one of East Africa's countries, is well-known for its abundant water resources. There are twelve river basins in the country. The total annual mean surface runoff from all twelve river basins is estimated to be 124 billion cubes [8,22]. Eight of Ethiopia's twelve river basins have been identified for their hydroelectric power production potential. Table 2 depicts Ethiopia's river basins' hydropower production potential. Around 300 hydropower plant sites have been identified in those eight river basins, with 102 large-scale (more than 60 MW) and 198 small-scale (less than 40 MW) sites [3]. The economically feasible estimated potential of Ethiopia is approximately 30,000 MW, but only 8.82% of this potential is exploited [3,8]. Given Ethiopia's hydropower potential, this capacity is insufficient to meet the country's energy demands. As a result, developing the country's abundant hydropower resources in all schemes holds the key to meeting energy demand in various sectors such as agriculture, transportation, industries, and services, as well as contributing to the country's socioeconomic development. With this understanding, the country has initiated a plan to develop a number of hydroelectric projects, including the 2,160 MW Gilgel Gibe IV hydropower project and the massive 6000 MW GERD being built on the Abbay (Blue Nile) River, with the goal of meeting the growing energy demand, as well as a plan to export electric power to neighboring countries [8].
4.1. Small hydropower development in Ethiopia
Small hydropower technology is best suited for rural areas with no grid access. Small hydropower is regarded as more environmentally friendly because it avoids the significant environmental impacts associated with large-scale hydro, such as habitat loss, water quality changes, and siltation. Small hydropower, also known as mini and micro hydropower, refers to the harnessing of power from water on a small scale (capacity of less than 40 MW) [24]. Small hydropower has multiple applications, including energy generation, irrigation, and water supply, and it is also a very reliable technology. The majority of the untapped potential for small hydro is in remote areas. Eastern and Southern Africa has a large number of permanent streams, rivers, and tributaries with excellent hydropower development potential [25]. Ethiopia, one of East African countries, has a total theoretical potential for small hydropower schemes of about 100 MW [26]. Despite this enormous potential, the country has only used a small portion of it through small hydropower plants. Table 3 shows a list of Ethiopia's small-scale hydroelectric power plants. The majority of Ethiopians, particularly in rural areas, rely heavily on traditional forms of energy such as biomass, kerosene, charcoal, and so on. For example, approximately 99 percent of rural households use biomass for cooking and heating [27]. Small hydropower plants are well-known for their ability to provide electricity to rural areas in developing countries [28]. Small hydroelectric projects are a safer choice than large hydroelectric projects for controlling and using water supplies in a sustainable manner with minimal socioeconomic and environmental impact [24]. Small hydropower plants will reduce energy imbalances, and they are simple to build, inexpensive, and environmentally safe [29]. As a result, given that the majority of the Ethiopian community lives in remote areas, constructing such standalone electricity supply facilities will address the society's energy demand in a more sustainable manner.
4.2. Large hydropower development in Ethiopia
Hydropower is a renewable energy source that harnesses the energy of moving water from higher to lower elevations. Hydropower can provide a significant and consistent supply of electricity by utilizing an indigenous and renewable energy source and relying on well-established, low-carbon technology. In Africa, hydropower is the most cost-effective option for large-scale electricity generation [15,30].
Ethiopia, an East African country, has the world's second largest hydropower potential, trailing only the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with an estimated annual theoretical energy potential of 954 TWh [31]. The country has approximately 11 large hydropower dams with an annual energy production capacity of 14,296.7 GWh. Hydropower is currently the most important renewable energy source that is integrated into the national grid, accounting for approximately 87 percent of the country's total energy production capacity, making it the primary energy source [6]. Table 4 presents data on the catchment area, elevation, and energy potential of large hydropower plants in the country by 2020. The country has begun construction on a number of large hydroelectric projects, including the Gilgel Gibe IV (Koysha) hydropower project and the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam being built on the Abbay (Blue Nile) River, which when completed will be Africa's largest dam and the world's sixth largest [8]. However, plans to build a large hydroelectric dam to meet the country's energy demand are unfeasible given that the majority of Ethiopia's population lives in rural, dispersed areas. Furthermore, because of the large sums of money involved in large-scale hydro projects, these projects are hindered by allegations of corruption. Another disadvantage of hydropower development is dam silting, which reduces the amount of electricity that can be generated over time and will be affected by drought, resulting in huge shortfalls in electricity generation. To meet the universal electrification plan, the country should shift its energy policy toward small-scale and standalone renewable energy technology development, as well as diversifying its power mix and supplementing it with intermittent sources such as wind and solar to meet peak demand.
5.
Construction of grand Ethiopia renaissance dam and Nile basin hydro politics
Nile is probably the longest international river in the world, with a length of 6670 km. Before reaching the Mediterranean Sea, the Nile River flows through 11 African countries [32]. The Nile's two main tributaries are the White Nile and the Blue Nile. The White Nile begins in Burundi and flows through the Equatorial Lakes before entering Sudan's Sudd swamps. The Blue Nile, the major water supplier, however, originates in the Ethiopian highlands. The Ethiopian highlands account for 86 percent of Nile flow, while the Equatorial Lakes region contributes only 14 percent. Ethiopia is the source of three of the four major tributaries: the Blue Nile, the Sobat, and the Atbara. As a result, Ethiopia is classified as an upstream riparian state, whereas Egypt and Sudan are classified as downstream riparian countries [33]. In recent years, the Nile basin countries, particularly Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, have seen massive population growth [34]. Sudan built the large Merowe Dam (1250 MW) in 1936 and later Roseires Dam was begun in 1950 to add additional 420,000 hectares of irrigated land while, Egypt built the Aswan High Dam (2100 MW) to control the flow of the Nile in the 1960's, resulting in increased agricultural production, employment, and electricity [35,36]. The Ethiopian government has planned to construct a mega hydroelectric dam on the Abbay (Nile) river since the 1960's [36]. Since then, Nile basin countries have been engaged in open conflict on water sharing issues. Egypt, one of the downstream riparian countries, has imposed its control on the Nile since historical times, granted through 1902, 1929, and 1959 colonial agreements over Ethiopia and other Nile Basin nations [37]. However, the establishment of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999 brought a certain shift in the bilateral relationships among the basin countries [34]. Table 5 shows the treaties that have been made on Nile water sharing.
On the other hand, the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River has heightened tensions among Nile basin countries, particularly between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Despite the fact that the Ethiopian government had planned the GERD project since the 1960s, it was not officially launched until April 2011 [36]. With this in mind, Egypt has successfully persuaded international and regional financial institutions, such as the World Bank, the European Investment Bank (EIB), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), not to finance Ethiopia's construction of hydropower generation infrastructure projects on Nile tributaries, including the construction of GERD, which the World Bank has expressed reluctance to fund [38]. As a result, Ethiopia has been unable to make significant use of the Nile River's water. However, due to Ethiopians' ability and willingness to invest in the dam project both at home and abroad, the government was able to raise a significant portion of the funds required to begin construction of the GERD. GERD, which is scheduled to be completed by 2025, will be Africa's largest, with a capacity of about 6,000 megawatts [39]. This dam will create a reservoir with a volume of more than 74 billion cubic meters, or roughly 1.3 times the annual flow of the Blue Nile [40]. Figure 2 depicts the Nile river basin and the location of the GERD.
According to the Ethiopian government, GERD will become a symbol of national pride and recent progress. Ethiopia claimed that GERD could benefit everyone [52]. They claim that storing water in the Blue Nile Gorge reduces evaporation and increases downstream water flow. It will provide hydroelectric power to the entire region as well as manage flood control and siltation. Egypt's and Sudan's claims to historic water rights, on the other hand, will be speculative. Furthermore, Egypt has historically justified its water share by claiming that Ethiopia receives a lot of rain and owns a lot of rivers, whereas Egypt is completely reliant on the Nile River [38].
Negotiations on filling strategies and long-term operations began in 2011, about a decade after Ethiopia announced the dam's construction, as the dam's development sparked heated disagreement among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. The negotiations, however, failed and came to a halt since the three countries were unable to achieve an agreement [53]. Table 6 depicts the filling rules and long-term operation of GERD that were negotiated. Ethiopia unilaterally filled the reservoir with 4.9 billion m3 and 13.5 billion m3 in the summers of 2020 and 2021, respectively, due to the difficulty in reaching mutually acceptable agreements [11,32]. On February 20, 2022, Ethiopia officially began producing 375 MW of electricity from GERD with single turbine.If it's completed, GERD will turn Ethiopia into a net exporter of electricity to plenty of regional buyers, including Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, and possibly Egypt.
As a result, rather than escalating conflict and potential war between the three riparian countries, the construction of GERD could be a great opportunity for cooperation and development if they can agree on a cooperative framework that benefits each country while not harming the interests of the other countries [53]. Furthermore, poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, and collaborative research, particularly in areas such as climate change, terrorism, and extremism, could serve as the foundation for a cooperative arrangement among all Nile Basin countries.
6.
Conclusions
Ethiopia has a lot of hydropower potential, with plenty left over to sell to other countries, which will bring in a lot of money. The vast majority of the country's population, however, lives in rural areas with limited access to electricity. Ethiopia currently produces approximately 4 GW of electricity from 11 large and 7 small hydropower plants. However, when compared to the country's hydroelectric resource potential, this amount is extremely small. As a result, in order to achieve universal electricity supply, the country's energy policy should favor the development of small-scale hydroelectric power, which could be a better option for meeting rural energy demand while also improving rural society's economic development by improving water supply for irrigation development and fish production. Furthermore, Ethiopia should initiate and expand collaborative research with all Nile basin countries on natural resource utilization, climate change, food security, and poverty reduction in order to achieve mutual development and resolve the hydro-political crisis. As a result, this paper provides a brief overview of Ethiopia's hydropower potential and current development status. The article then discusses hydropower politics in the context of the GERD construction. Finally, it discusses the role of hydropower in meeting the energy demands of nations.
Conflict of interest
The author declares no conflict of interest.