Research article Special Issues

Mobile phone data and tourism statistics: a broken promise?

  • Received: 13 October 2020 Accepted: 12 January 2021 Published: 18 January 2021
  • JEL Codes: C8, C10, Z3

  • Mobile phone data represents an original source of information about the movements of individuals across territories and, in particular, of visitors. The systematic use of this data for statistical purposes is expected to provide several advantages: timeliness, deeper geographical and time granularity, and reduction of the statistical burden of respondents. To check whether that expectation is well placed, this paper reports a bibliometric analysis and a subsequent literature review of the recent contributions to the use of mobile phone data in quantifying the volume of tourist flows. The main findings show that the systematic exploitation of mobile phone data for producing tourism statistics is still limited in terms of countries (Estonia, Indonesia) and domain (international flows). Furthermore, the basic definitions of visitors stated by the EU Regulation 692/2011 are rarely applied on mobile phone data, and the population of visitors/tourists is often derived as a residual group after having identified the other people movements (residents, commuters). Both the literature review and a brief case study of the Metropolitan City of Florence show the main weaknesses of mobile phone data, which include costs, privacy restrictions, statistical issues of representativeness, among others. Finally, it is clear that mobile phone data cannot completely substitute current surveys on tourism flows because they do not include some noteworthy information concerning a tourist's motivations and a trip's characteristics.

    Citation: Laura Grassini, Gianni Dugheri. Mobile phone data and tourism statistics: a broken promise?[J]. National Accounting Review, 2021, 3(1): 50-68. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2021002

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  • Mobile phone data represents an original source of information about the movements of individuals across territories and, in particular, of visitors. The systematic use of this data for statistical purposes is expected to provide several advantages: timeliness, deeper geographical and time granularity, and reduction of the statistical burden of respondents. To check whether that expectation is well placed, this paper reports a bibliometric analysis and a subsequent literature review of the recent contributions to the use of mobile phone data in quantifying the volume of tourist flows. The main findings show that the systematic exploitation of mobile phone data for producing tourism statistics is still limited in terms of countries (Estonia, Indonesia) and domain (international flows). Furthermore, the basic definitions of visitors stated by the EU Regulation 692/2011 are rarely applied on mobile phone data, and the population of visitors/tourists is often derived as a residual group after having identified the other people movements (residents, commuters). Both the literature review and a brief case study of the Metropolitan City of Florence show the main weaknesses of mobile phone data, which include costs, privacy restrictions, statistical issues of representativeness, among others. Finally, it is clear that mobile phone data cannot completely substitute current surveys on tourism flows because they do not include some noteworthy information concerning a tourist's motivations and a trip's characteristics.


    There are many papers investigating the stochastic travelling waves of population dynamical system with multiplicative noise, most of them focus on the scaler Fisher-KPP equation. For instance, Tribe [1] studied the KPP equation with nonlinear multiplicative noise udWt, and Müeller et al. [2,3,4] studied the KPP equation with u(1u)dWt. Both of their work take the Heaviside function as the initial data, and they also gave the estimates of the wave speed with an upper bound and a lower bound. Zhao et al. [5,6,7] showed that only if the strength of noise is moderately, for example the multiplicative noise k(t)dWt, the effects of noise would present or the solution would tend to be zero or converge to the deterministic travelling wave solution. Shen [8] developed a theoretical random variational framework to show the existence of random travelling waves, and then Shen and his collaborators [9,10] also studied the random travelling waves in reaction-diffusion equations with Fisher-KPP nonlinearity, Nagumo nonlinearity and ignition nonlinearity, in random media. Furthermore, Huang et al. [11,12,13,14] investigated the bifurcations of asymptotic behaviors of solution induced by strength of the dual noises for stochastic Fisher-KPP equation. Recently, Wang and Zhou [15] discovered that the same results still hold even if the decrease restrictions on the growth function are removed. Moreover, they showed that with increasing the noise intensity, the original equation with Fisher-KPP nonlinearity evolves into first the one with degenerated Fisher-KPP nonlinearity and then the one with Nagumo nonlinearity, and we refer it to [15] for details.

    It is worthy to point out that the above mentioned papers mainly focus on the scalar stochastic reaction-diffusion equation. Recently, Wen et al. [16] applied the theory of random monotone dynamical systems developed by Cheushov [17] and Kolmogorov tightness criterion to obtain the existence of stochastic travelling wave solution for stochastic two-species cooperative system

    {du=[uxx+u(1a1u+b1v)]dt+ϵudWt,dv=[vxx+v(1a2v+b2u)]dt+ϵvdWt,u(0)=u0,v(0)=v0, (1.1)

    where W(t) is a white noise as in [11], u0,v0 are both Heaviside functions, and ai,bi are positive constants satisfying min{ai}>max{bi}. The element "1" of 1a1u+b1v and 1a2v+b2u in Eq (1.1) is the formal environment carrying capacity, and then by constructing upper and lower solution and applying Feynman-Kac formula they obtained the estimation of upper bound and lower bound for wave speed, respectively. Moreover, Wen et al. [18] established the existence of stochastic travelling wave solution for stochastic two-species competitive system, and they obtained the upper bound and lower bound of the asymptotic wave. To the best of our knowledge, there are few papers concerning the stochastic travelling waves for cooperative N-species systems (N3), which leads to the motivation of the current work.

    There are some papers that study the stability and stochastic persistence for the stochastic N-species system without space diffusion. For example, Cui and Chen [19] proved that there exists a unique globally asymptotically stable positive ω-periodic solution for the N-species time dependent Lotka-Volterra periodic mutualistic system

    ˙xi=xi(ri(t)+nj=1aij(t)xj),i=1,2,,n, (1.2)

    provided with (1)kdet(max0t<+aij(t))1i,jk>0. Subsequently, Ji et al. [20] studied the N-species Lotka-Volterra mutualism system with stochastic perturbation

    dxi(t)=xi(t)[(binj=1aijxj(t))dt+σidBi(t)],i=1,2,,n,

    and proved the sufficient criteria for persistence in mean and stationary distribution of the system. Moreover, they also showed the large white noise make the system nonpersistent, we refer the readers to [20,21] for details.

    In this paper, we consider the travelling wave solution of the following stochastic N-species cooperative systems,

    {du(i)=[u(i)xx+u(i)(aibiiu(i)+nj=1jibiju(j))]dt+ϵu(i)dWt,i=1,2,,n,u(i)(0,x)=u(i)0=piχ(,0],i=1,2,,n, (1.3)

    where W(t) is a Brownian motion, u(i)0(i=1,2,,n) are Heaviside functions, ai represents the environment carrying capacity, and bij are positive constants satisfying min{bii}>2nmaxjk{bjk}, rank{(bij)n×n}=n.

    To study the existence of stochastic travelling wave solution for stochastic N-species cooperative systems (1.3), it needs to introduce a suitable wavefront marker for system (1.3). The comparison method is applied to prove the boundedness of the solutions based on the random monotonicity and the Feynman-Kac formula. The existence of the travelling wave solution is focused on verifying the trajectory property, connecting the two states poses the support compactness propagation (SCP) property, defined by Shiga in [22].

    Denote

    Y=(u(1),u(2),,u(n))T,Y0=(u(1)0,u(2)0,,u(n)0)T,

    and

    Fi(Y)=u(i)(aibiiu(i)+nj=1jibiju(j)),F(Y)=(F1(Y),,Fn(Y))T,

    then the stochastic cooperative system (1.3) can be rewritten as the following vector equation

    {dY=[Yxx+F(Y)]dt+ϵYdWt,Y(0,x)=Y0. (1.4)

    For any matrix M=(mij)n×m, define the norm || as |M|=ni=1nj=1|mij|, and the vector norm is defined as ||A||=maxi(Ai) for vector A=(ai)n×1. Let Ω be the space of temper distributions, F be the σ-algebra on Ω, and (Ω,F,P) be the white noise probability space.

    In order to apply the Feynman-Kac formula in [7], we can define

    βt(k):=et0k(s)dWs12t0k2(s)ds,0t<.

    Denote by

    ϕλ(x)=eλ|x|,||f||λ=supxR(|f(x)ϕλ(x)|),C+={f|f:R[0,)andfiscontinuous},C+λ={fC+|fiscontinuous,and|f(x)ϕλ(x)|0asx±},C+tem=λ>0C+λ.

    C+C[0,1]={f|f:R[0,1]} is space of nonnegative functions with compact support, Φ={f:||f||λ<forsomeλ<0} is the space of functions with exponential decay, and C+tem is the space of vector valued functions whose each component belongs to C+tem.

    The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, the existence of stochastic travelling wave solution is established. In Section 3, the upper and lower bound of asymptotic wave speed are obtained. An example of 3-species stochastic cooperative system is also presented in Section 4.

    In this section, we establish the existence of stochastic travelling wave solution. We first provide with the definition of stochastic travelling wave solution, which is from [1]. To the end, it needs to define some state space follows as

    D[0,)={ϕ:R[0,),ϕis right continuous and decreasing,ϕ=limxϕexists}.D[0,1]={ϕ:R[0,1],ϕis right continuous and decreasing}.D={ϕD[0,1]:ϕ()=1,ϕ()=0}.

    We endow D[0,) with the topology induced from L1loc(R) metric. Then D[0,1] and D are the measurable subset of D[0,). It follows from [13] that D[0,), D[0,1] and D are Polish spaces and compact.

    Consider the following stochastic reaction diffusion equation with Heaviside data

    {du=[Duxx+f(u)]dt+σ(u)dWt,u(0)=χx0. (2.1)

    Definition 2.1 (Stochastic travelling wave solution). A stochastic travelling wave is a solution u=(u(t):t0) to (2.1) with values in D and for which the centered process (˜u(t)=u(t,+R0(t)):t0) is a stationary process with respect to time, where R0(t) is a wave front marker. The law of a stochastic travelling wave is the law of ˜u(0) on D.

    Then, we prove the following Lemmas 2.2 and 2.3 by the idea of Tribe [1].

    Lemma 2.2. For any Heaviside functions Y0, and a.e. ωΩ, there exists a unique solution to (1.4) in law with the form

    Y(t,x)=RG(t,x,y)Y0dy+t0RG(ts,x,y)F(Y)dsdy+ϵt0RG(ts,x,y)YdWsdy, (2.2)

    where G(t,x,y) is Green function, and Y(t,x)C+tem.

    Lemma 2.3. All solutions to (1.4) started at Y0 have the same law which we denote by QY0,ai,bij, and the map (Y0,ai,bij)QY0,ai,bij is continuous. The law QY0,ai,bij for Y0 as a Heaviside function forms a strong Markov family.

    Next, we estimate the term Y(t,x), which is key tools to prove the existence of stochastic travelling wave solutions.

    Theorem 2.4. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, and t>0 fixed, a.e. ωΩ, it permits that

    E[ni=1u(i)(t,x)]C(ϵ,t)(ni=1u(i)0+αkϵ22k),xR, (2.3)

    where C(ϵ,t) is a constant, k=mini{bii}(n1)maxij{bij}n, α=maxi{ai}.

    Proof. Denote by ϕ(t,x)=ni=1u(i)(t,x), we have

    {dϕ=[ϕxx+ni=1u(i)(t,x)(aibiiu(i)+nj=1jibiju(j))]dt+ϵϕdWt,ϕ(0,x)=ϕ0=ni=1u(i)0, (2.4)

    Since min{bii}>2nmaxjk{bjk}, then

    ni=1u(i)(aibiiu(i)+nj=1jibiju(j))αni=1u(i)mini{bii}ni=1(u(i))2+2maxij{bij}ni,j=1i<ju(i)u(j)αni=1u(i)kni=1(u(i))2ni=1u(i)(αkni=1u(i)).

    Let ψ be the solution of the following equation

    {dψ=[ψxx+ψ(αkψ)]dt+ϵψdWt,ψ0=ni=1u(i)0, (2.5)

    then, u(i)(t,x)ψ(t,x) a.s., i=1,2,,n.

    Let ζ be a solution to the following equation

    {ζt=ζxx+ζ(αkζ)ϵ22ζ,ζ0=ψ0. (2.6)

    We claim that for every (t,x)[0,)×R, it follows

    einf0rttrϵdWsζ(t,x)ψ(t,x)esup0rttrϵdWsζ(t,x)a.s. (2.7)

    In fact, we prove this claim by contradiction. We suppose that there is (t0,x0)[0,)×R such that

    ψ(t0,x0)>esup0rt0t0rϵdWsζ(t0,x0), (2.8)

    which implies that

    ψ(t0,x0)>ζ(t0,x0).

    To construct a new probability space (ˆΩ,ˆF,ˆP), and denote ˆW=(ˆW(t):t0) be a Brownian motion over the new probability space. Let Xt0,x0s=(t0s,x0+2ˆW(s)),s>0, and define a stopping time

    τ=inf{s>0:ζ(Xt0,x0s)=ψ(Xt0,x0s)},

    for each ωˆΩ. Using the stochastic Feynman-Kac formula and by the strong Markov property, we have almost surely

    ψ(t0,x0)=ˆE[ψ(Xt0,x0τ)exp(τ0(αkψ(Xt0,x0τ))]×exp(t0t0τϵdWs12t0t0τϵ2ds)ˆE[ζ(Xt0,x0τ)eτ0(αkζ(Xt0,x0τ))ds]×et0t0τϵdWs12t0t0τϵ2ds=esup0rt0t0t0rϵdWsζ(t0,x0),

    which contradicts (2.8) and the upper bound is proved.

    Similarly, we have almost surely

    ψ(t0,x0)exp(inf0rt0t0rϵdWs)ζ(t0,x0)a.s.

    For arbitrary t>0 fixed, for any σ>0, multiplying G(ts+σ,xy) in (2.6) and integrating over R, we obtain

    sRζ(s,y)G(ts+σ,xy)dy(αϵ22)Rζ(s,y)G(ts+σ,xy)dyk(Rζ(s,y)G(ts+σ,xy)dy)2.

    Let φ(s)=Rζ(s,y)G(ts+σ,xy)dy, thus we get

    {dφ(s)ds(αϵ22)φ(s)kφ2(s),φ0=Rζ0G(t+σ,xy)dy. (2.9)

    In general, we have

    φ(s)φ0+αkϵ22k, (2.10)

    which implies

    Rζ(t,y)G(σ,xy)dyRζ0G(t+σ,xy)dy+αkϵ22k. (2.11)

    Let σ0, then

    ζ(t,x)Rζ0G(t,xy)dy+αkϵ22ka.s. (2.12)

    Combining the above estimate with (2.7), we obtain

    ni=1u(i)(t,x)esup0rttrϵdWs×(Rψ0G(t,xy)dy+αkϵ22k)a.s. (2.13)

    Fixing the initial data u(i)0=piχ(,0], and taking the expectation, we get

    E[ni=1u(i)(t,x)]C(ϵ,t)(ni=1u(i)0+αkϵ22k), (2.14)

    where C(ϵ,t)=E[esup0rttrϵdWs].

    Lemma 2.5. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, a.e. ωΩ and t>0, one has

    E[ni=1|u(i)(t)|2]E[ni=1|u(i)0|2]et+K(1et), (2.15)

    where K=(ϵ6+2α+1)3n54k2.

    Proof. Let V(t):=ni=1|u(i)(t)|2, by Itô formula we have

    dV(t)=2ni=1u(i),u(i)dt+2ni=1u(i),aiu(i)bii(u(i))2+nj=1biju(i)u(j)dt+ϵ2ni=1(u(i))2dt+2ϵni=1(u(i))2dWt.

    Integrate both sides on [0,t] and take expectation, we have

    E[V(t)]=Eni=1(u(i)0)2+2Eni=1t0u(i),u(i)ds+2Eni=1t0u(i),aiu(i)bii(u(i))2+nj=1biju(i)u(j)ds+ϵ2ni=1Et0(u(i))2dsEni=1(u(i)0)22Eni=1t0|u(i)|2ds+2αEni=1t0(u(i))2ds2kEni=1t0(u(i))3ds+ϵ2Eni=1t0(u(i))2dsEni=1(u(i)0)22kEni=1t0(u(i))3ds+2αEni=1t0(u(i))2ds+ϵ2Eni=1t0(u(i))2ds+Eni=1t0(u(i))2dsEni=1t0(u(i))2ds.

    By Young inequality we have

    (2α+1)Et0ni=1(u(i))2dskt0Eni=1(u(i))3ds+(2α+1)3n54k3t, (2.16)

    and

    ϵ2Et0ni=1(u(i))2dskt0Eni=1(u(i))3ds+ϵ6n54k2t. (2.17)

    Combining (2.16) with (2.17) offers that

    E[ni=1|u(i)(t)|2]E[ni=1|u(i)0|2]+(ϵ6+2α+1)3)n54k2tEni=1t0(u(i))2ds.

    Thus by Gronwall inequality we have

    Esup0tT[ni=1|u(i)(t)|2]E[ni=1|u(i)0|2]et+(ϵ6+2α+1)3)n54k2(1et).

    Modifying the argument in Lemma 2.1 from [1], we can estimate how fast the compact support of Y(t) can spread.

    Lemma 2.6. Let Y(t,x) be a solution to (1.4) started at Y0, suppose for some R>0 that Y0 is supported outside (R2,R+2), then for any t1,

    P(t0RR||Y(s,x)||dsdx>0)Cett|x|(R+1)exp((|x|(R+1))22t)||Y0||dx.

    Proof. From Theorem 2.4, we know the solution Y(t,x) is uniformly bounded, thus the sup-solution solves

    {dv(i)=[v(i)xx+v(i)(kbv(i))]dt+ϵv(i)dWt,v(i)(0)=u(i)0,i=1,2,,n, (2.18)

    where k>0 is a constant satisfying Fi(Y)u(kbu). Refer to [1,23], the proof can be completed.

    Remark 1. When R0(t) is defined as a wavefront marker as in [1], the SCP property of Y(t,x) can not hold. Additionally, we can not ensure the translational invariance of the solution Y(t,x) with respect to R0(t). However thanks to Lemma 2.6, we can choose a suitable wavefront marker to ensure the SCP property of Y(t) holds.

    It is easy to verify that Y(t,x) satisfy Kolmogorov tightness criterion, and Y(t,x)K(C,δ,μ,γ), which helps constructing a probability measure sequence, which is convergent.

    Lemma 2.7. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, t>0, fixed p2 and a.e. ωΩ, if |xx|1, there exists positive constant C(t), such that

    QY0(|Y(t,x)Y(t,x)|p)C(t)|xx|p/21.

    Proof. Referring to [1], it is not difficult to complete the proof.

    Define QY0 as the law of the unique solution to Eq (1.4) with initial data Y(0)=Y0. For a probability measure ν on C+tem, we define

    Qν(A)=C+temQY0(A)ν(dY0).

    In order to construct the travelling wave solution to Eq (1.3), we must ensure that the translation of solution with respect to a wavefront marker is stationary and the solution poses the SCP property. However, R0(Y(t)) does not satisfy this condition. So we have to choose a new suitable wavefront marker. As the solution to (1.4) with Heaviside initial condition is exponentially small almost surely as x, with the stochastic Feynman-Kac formula we may turn to R1(t):C+tem[,] defined as

    R1(f)=lnRexfdx,R1(u(i)(t))=lnRexu(i)(t)dx,

    and

    R1(t):=R1(Y(t))=maxi{R1(u(i)(t))}.

    The marker R1(t) is an approximation to R0(Y(t))=maxi{R0(u(i)(t))}.

    Let

    Z(t)=Y(t,+R1(t))=(Z1(t),Z2(t),,Zn(t))T,Z0(t)=Y(t,+R0(Y(t))),

    and define

    Z(t)={(0,0,,0)T,R1(t)=,(u(1)(t,+R1(t)),u(2)(t,+R1(t)),u(n)(t,+R1(t)))T,<R1(t)<(p1,p2,,pn)T,R1(t)=.

    Hence Z(t) is the wave shifted so that the wavefront marker R1(t) lies at the origin. Note that whenever R0(Y0)<, the compact support property implies that R0(t)<, t>0, QY0-a.s.

    Remark 2. Here we define R1(t) in the maximum form, not only since it simplifies the discussion about boundedness, but also the asymptotic wave speed is the minimum wave speed which keeps the travelling wave solution monotonic. As mentioned before, we approximate the asymptotic wave speed via c=limtR1(t)t. Therefore, the wavefront marker R1(t) defined in such form can ensure the travelling wave solutions of the two subsystems monotonic.

    Define

    νT=thelawof1TT0Z(s)dsunderQY0.

    Now we summarise the method for constructing the travelling wave solution. With the initial data (u(1)0=p1χ(,0],u(2)0=p2χ(,0],,u(n)0=pnχ(,0])C+tem as Heaviside function, we shall show that the sequence {νT}TN is tight (see Lemma 2.9) and any limit point is nontrivial (see Theorem 2.10). Hence for any limit point ν (the limit is not unique), Qν is the law of a travelling wave solution. Two parts constituting the proof of tightness are Kolmogorov tightness criterion for the unshifted waves (see Lemma 2.7) and the control on the movement of the wavefront marker R1(t) to ensure the shifting will not destroy the tightness (see Lemma 2.8).

    Lemma 2.8. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, t0, d>0, T1, and a.e. ωΩ there exists a positive constant C(t)<, such that

    QνT(|R1(t)|>d)C(t)d. (2.19)

    Proof. By the comparison principle proposed in [24,25], we can construct a sup-solution satisfying, for i=1,2,,n,

    {d˜u(i)=[˜u(i)xx+k0˜u(i)]dt+ϵ˜udWt,˜u(i)0=u(i)0, (2.20)

    where the constant k0>0 can be obtained by Theorem 2.4 such that Fi(Y)<k0u(i). Therefore, we know that u(i)(t)˜u(i)(t) hold on [0,T] uniformly, and for a.e. ωΩ the solution ˜Y(t,x) to Eq (2.20) is

    ˜Y(t,x)=Rek0tG(t,xy)Y0(y)dy+ϵRt0G(ts,xy)˜YdWsdy. (2.21)

    Applying the comparison method yields, for any i=1,2,,n we have

    Qu(i)0(Ru(i)(t,x)exdx)E[R˜u(i)(t,x)exdx]=ek0t+tRu(i)0(x)exdx.

    Without loss of generality, we assume that R1(t)=R1(u(1)(t)), then

    Ru(1)(t,x+R1(t))exdx=eR1(t)Ru(1)(t,x)exdx=1.

    Combing with the above arguments, we deduce that

    QνT(R1(t)d)=1TT0Qu(1)0(Qu(1)(s)(edRu(1)(t,x)exdx1))dsedek0t+t.

    Then the Jensen's inequality gives

    Qu(1)0(R1(t))ln(ek0t+tRu(1)0(x)exdx)k0t+t+R1(u(1)0).

    Direct calculation implies

    1TQu(1)0(T+ttR1(s)dsT0R1(s)ds)1TT00Qu(1)0(R1(t+s)R1(s)y)dydsdTT0Qu(1)0(R1(t+s)R1(s)d)ds=0QνT(R1(t)y)dydQνT(R1(t)d).

    Thus, by rearranging the above inequalities

    QνT(R1(t)d)1d0QνT(R1(t)y)dy+1dTT0QνT(R1(s))dsC(t)d,

    which completes the proof of Lemma 2.8.

    We will prove the marker R1(t) is bounded, which helps to prove the sequence {νT:TN} is tight and the wavefront marker R0(t) is bounded. Next, we will show the tightness of {νT:TN} with Y(t,x)K(C,δ,μ,γ).

    Lemma 2.9. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, and a.e. ωΩ, the sequence {νT:TN} is tight.

    Proof. Following the idea to prove Lemma 2.8, we focus on the term u(i)(t,x). Since Y(t,x)K(C,δ,μ,γ) gives u(i)(t,x)K(C,δ,μ,γ), then it is easy to prove that

    νT(K(C,δ,γ,μ))=1TT0Qu(i)0(u(i)(t,+R1(t))K(C,δ,γ,μ))ds1TT0Qu(i)0((u(i)(t,+R1(t1))K(Ceμd,δ,γ,μ))×|R1(t)R1(t1)|d)ds1TT1Qu(i)0(QZ1(t1)(u(i)(1)K(Ceμd,δ,γ,μ)))dt1TT1Qu(i)0(|R1(t)R1(t1)|d)dt=:III.

    With Lemma 2.8, II0 as d. Via the Kolmogorov tightness and Lemma 2.7, for given d,μ>0, one can choose C,δ,γ to make I as close to T1T as desired. In addition, we have

    νT{u(i)0:Ru(i)0(x)e|x|dxRu(i)0(x)exdx=1}=1.

    The definition of tightness implies that for given μ>0, one can choose C,δ,γ such that νT(K(C,δ,μ,γ){u(i)0:Ru(i)0(x)e|x|dx}) as close to 1 as desired for T and d sufficient large, which implies that the sequence {νT:TN} is tight.

    Theorem 2.10. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, and for a.e. ωΩ, there is a travelling wave solution to Eq (1.3), and Qν is the law of travelling wave solution.

    Proof. By the comparison method, we have

    Zi(t,x)etϵ22t+t0ϵdWs×12πtx2e|y|22tdya.s.,

    under the law Qu(i)0 for t>0. Taking u(1)(t,x) together with Doob's inequality and (2.3), we have

    u(1)(1,x)etϵ22+10ϵdWs×eϵ22(t1)+t10ϵdWs×12πt1+x2ze|y|22(t1)dye|y|22dzetϵ22+10ϵdWs×eϵ22(t1)+t10ϵdWsx24ta.s., (2.22)

    for all t>1. Integrate (2.22) in [d,) and take the expectation, we have

    limdQu0(QZ1(t1)(du(1)(1,x)dx))limdtetd24t=0. (2.23)

    Furthermore, it follows that

    limdQu(1)0(QZ1(t1)(du(1)(1,x)dx))=1, (2.24)

    and

    νT(u(1)0:limd2du(1)0(x)dx=0)=1TT0Qu(1)0(δ>0,d0,2dZ1(t,x)dx)<δd>d0)dt,|R1(t)R1(t1)|d,d>d0)dt1TT1Qu(1)0(QZ1(t1)(limddu(1)(1,x)dx=0))dtlimdQνT(|R1(1)|d). (2.25)

    Thus by Lemma 2.8, combining (2.24) with (2.25) gives

    limTlimdνT(u(1)0:du(1)0(x)dx=0)=1. (2.26)

    To prove the boundness of R0(t), it follows from νTn(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)exdx=p1)=1 that ν(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)exdxp1)=1. Taking ed1(x)=ed|xd|, we have

    ν(u(1)0:(u(1)0,ex)p1)ν(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)ed1(x)dxp1)limsupnνTn(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)ed1(x)dx=p1)=limsupnνTn(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)I(d,)dx)=0)1,asd.

    As ν(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)exdx=p1)=1, we obtain ν(u(1)0:R0(u(1)0)>)=1. Now, we complete the half of the proof of the boundness of the wavefront marker R0(t). Take ψdΦ with (ψd>0)=(d,), then

    ν(u(1)0:R0(u(1)0)d)=ν(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)ψd(x)dx=0)limsupnνTn(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)ψd(x)dx=0)=limsupnνTn(u(1)0:Ru(1)0(x)I(d,)dx=0)1,asd,

    so we have ν(Y0:<R0(Y0)<)=1 and complete the proof of the boundedness of the wavefront marker R0(t). To verify that the solution Y(t) is nontrivial, let Rd1(t)=ln||Y(t)||ed1(x)dx, we have

    Qν(st,|Y(s)|=0)Qν(Rd1(t)<d)limsupnQνTn(Rd1(t)<d)limsupn(QνTn(R1(t)<d)+QνTn(Ru(i)(t,x)I(d,)dx>0))C(t)d0,asd.

    We now show that Z(t) is a stationary process and Qν is the law of a travelling wave solution to (1.3). Let F:C+temR be bounded and continuous, and take u(i)(t,x) for example, for any fixed t>0

    |QνTn(F(Zi(t)))Qν(F(Zi(t)))||QνTn(F(u(i)(t,+Rd1(t))))Qν(F(u(i)(t,+Rd1(t))))|+||F(u(i)0)||(QνTn(R1(t)Rd1(t))+Qν(R1(t)Rd1(t))),

    since νTn(u(i)0:Ru(i)0exdx=pi)=1, we have

    QνTn(R1(t)Rd1(t))QνTn(Ru(i)(t,x)I(d,)dx>0)C(k0,t)/d, (2.27)

    and with ν(u(i)0:Ru(i)0exdx=pi)=1, we have

    Qν(R1(t)Rd1(t))Qν(Ru(t,x)I(d,)dx>0)C(k0,t)/d. (2.28)

    By the continuity of u(i)0Qu(i)0, one have QνTnQν. Since F is bounded and continuous, we obtain that

    |QνTn(F(u(i)(t,+Rd1(t))))Qν(F(u(i)(t,+Rd1(t))))|0,asn.

    Therefore, we have

    Qν(F(Zi(t)))=limnQνTn(F(Zi(t)))=limn1TnTn0Qu0(F(Zi(s)))ds=ν(F).

    It is straightforward to check that {Z(t):t0} is Markov, hence {Z(t):t0} is stationary. Since the map Y0Y0(R0(Y0)) is measurable on C+tem, the process {Z0(t):t0} is also stationary, which implies that Qν is the law of the travelling wave solution to Eq (1.3).

    In this section, we investigate the asymptotic property of the travelling wave solutions. By constructing the sup-solution and the sub-solution, we obtain the asymptotic wave speed for the two travelling wave solutions respectively. Then we have the estimation of the wave speed of travelling wave solutions to (1.3). Since the asymptotic wave speed c of the travelling wave solution defined as

    c=limtR0(t)ta.s.,

    we denote by R0(u(i)(t))=sup{xR:u(i)(t,x)>0} for the sub-systems of the cooperative system. Since the wavefront marker R0(t) of the cooperative system is R0(t)=maxi{R0(u(i)(t))}, and the asymptotic wave speed is the maximum value among limtR0(u(i)(t))t, we can define the wave speed c as

    c=limtR0(Y(t))ta.s.

    We now construct a sup-solution. Let ˉY(t,x)=(ˉu(1)(t,x),,ˉu(n)(t,x))T satisfying

    {dˉu(i)=[ˉu(i)xx+ˉu(pbiiˉu)]dt+ϵˉudWt,ˉu(i)0=u(i)0,i=1,2,,n, (3.1)

    where Fi(Y)u(i)(pbiiu(i)), p=maxij{bij}×maxi{ni=1|u(i)0|2+K,C(ϵ,t)(ni=1u(i)0+αkϵ22k),pi}+1. Then we construct a sub-solution, denote by a=min{ai} and let Y_(t,x)=(u_(1)(t,x),,u_(n)(t,x))T satisfy

    {du_(i)=[u_(i)xx+u_(i)(abiiu_)]dt+ϵu_dWt,u_(i)0=u(i)0,i=1,2,,n. (3.2)

    Obviously, Fi(Y)u(i)(abiiu(i)). With Eq (3.1) and (3.2), we have such following conclusion:

    Theorem 3.1. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, let c be the asymptotic wave speed of Eq (1.3), then

    4a2ϵ2c4p2ϵ2a.s. (3.3)

    In order to prove Theorem 3.1, we need the following lemmas. We first introduce the comparison method for the asymptotic wave speed.

    Lemma 3.2. Let Y_(t,x) and ˉY(t,x) be the solutions to (3.2) and (3.1) respectively, if c_ is the asymptotic wave speed of Y_(t,+R0(Y_(t))) and ˉc is the asymptotic wave speed of ˉY(t,+R0(ˉY(t))), then

    c_cˉca.s.

    Proof. The comparison method for the stochastic diffusion equation gives that Y_(t,x)Y(t,x)ˉY(t,x), which implies u_(i)(t,x)u(i)(t,x)ˉu(i)(t,x) a.s. and v_(i)(t,x)v(i)(t,x)ˉv(i)(t,x) a.s.. Denote the wavefront markers by R1(Y_(t)), R1(Y(t)) and R1(ˉY(t)), with the definition of asymptotic wave speed

    c=limtR1(t)ta.s.,

    and the definition of the wavefront marker

    R1(Y(t))=maxi{lnRu(i)(t,x)exdx},

    it gives

    limtR1(Y_(t))tlimtR1(Y(t))tlimtR1(ˉY(t))ta.s., (3.4)

    which implies c_cˉca.s.. Thus, the proof of Lemma 3.1 is complete.

    Now we show the asymptotic property of the wavefront marker of the sub-solution. Consider Eq (3.2), for i=1,2,,n,

    {du_(i)=[u_(i)xx+u_(i)(abiiu_(i))]dt+ϵu_(i)dWt,u_(i)0=u0.

    Obviously u_(i) are independent from each other, thus we can divide (3.2) into n equations to study. For each equation one can have the asymptotic wave speed c(u_(i)) respectively, so the asymptotic wave speed of (3.2) is c(Y_)=maxi{c(u_(i))}.

    Theorem 3.3. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, Y_(t,x) is solution to (3.2), then the asymptotic wave speed c(Y_) satisfies

    c(Y_)=4a2ϵ2a.s., (3.5)

    where a=mini{ai}.

    Proof. For any h>0, take κ(0,h24+1ϵ22h) and define

    ηt(ω)=et0ϵdWs12t0ϵ2ds,0t,

    construct new probability space (˜Ω,˜F,˜P), ˜W=(˜W(t):t0) is a Brownian motion. Then there exists T1>0, such that for tT1 and a.e. ωΩ

    eϵ22tκtηt(ω)eϵ22t+κt.

    Thus the stochastic Feynman-Kac formula gives

    u_(i)(t,x)eat12ϵ2t+κt˜P(˜W(t)x2)eat12ϵ2t+κtx24ta.s.,

    for tT1. For a constant k, set x(k+h)t. Multiple ex with both sides and integrate in [(k+h)t,), we have

    (k+h)tu_(i)(t,x)exdx(k+h)texp(at12ϵ2t+κtx24t+x)dx2teat12ϵ2t+κt+t(k+h)t2t4tex2dxtea+κk24kh2h24khϵ22ta.s.,

    for tT1. Let k=4a2ϵ2+42, then we obtain

    limt(k+h)tu_(i)(t,x)exdx=0a.s. (3.6)

    Integrating u_(i)(t,x)ex in [(4a2ϵ2+h)t,(kh)t) yields

    (kh)t(4a2ϵ2+h)tu_(i)(t,x)exdx(kh)t(4a2ϵ2+h)texp(at12ϵ2t+κtx24t+x)dx2teat12ϵ2t+κt+t(kh)t2t22(4a2ϵ2+h)t2t2tex2dxtexp(atϵ22t+κt4a2ϵ24t(4a2ϵ2)h2th24t+4a2ϵ2t+ht)texp(atϵ22t+κtk24t+kh2th24t+ktht)teκt+4a2ϵ2t(4a2ϵ2)h2th24t+htteκtk24t+kh2th24thta.s.,

    for tT1. Thus, we have

    (4a2ϵ2+h)t(4a2ϵ2h)tu_(i)(t,x)exdxteκt+4a2ϵ2t+4a2ϵ2h2th24thtteκt+4a2ϵ2t4a2ϵ2h2th24t+hta.s.,

    and

    (k+h)t(kh)tu_(i)(t,x)exdxteκt+kh2th24thtteκtkh2th24t+hta.s.,

    for tT1. Referring to [7], there exists T2>0, such that for all tT2 and x<(4a2ϵ2h)t, there exist ρ1,ρ2>0 satisfying

    eρ12tlnlntu_(i)(t,x)eρ22tlnlnta.s., (3.7)

    which goes into

    (4a2ϵ2h)tu_(i)(t,x)exdxeρ22tlnlnt+(4a2ϵ2h)ta.s. (3.8)

    Since (k+h)tu_(i)(t,x)exdx1, then we have

    Ru_(i)(t,x)exdxeρ22tlnlnt+(4a2ϵ2h)t(2+H(t)+G(t))a.s., (3.9)

    where

    H(t)=te12ϵ2ϵ22t+κt+kh2th24tρ22tlnlnt4a2ϵ2t1,

    and

    G(t)=te12ϵ2ϵ22t+κt4a2ϵ2h2tρ22tlnlnth24t+2ht.

    Since h and κ are arbitrary, we derive that H(t)1 a.s. for large t. Direct calculation implies that almost surely

    1tlnG(t)=12tln4t1t(ln2ϵ22+ϵ22t)+κ4a2ϵ24hh24+2h1tρ22tlnlnt,

    and

    limt1tlnG(t)=0. (3.10)

    Hence, we obtain the upper bound of the asymptotic wave speed of the travelling wave solution to (3.2)

    R1(t)t1tρ22tlnlnt+4a2ϵ2h+1tln2+1tlnG(t)a.s. (3.11)

    Moreover, it follows that

    limsuptR1(t)t4a2ϵ2a.s. (3.12)

    and

    R1(t)t1tρ12lnlnt+4a2ϵ2ha.s. (3.13)

    Thus, we deduce that the lower bound followed as

    liminftR1(t)t4a2ϵ2a.s. (3.14)

    Combining (3.12) and (3.14), we can get

    limtR1(t)t=4a2ϵ2a.s. (3.15)

    The proof of Theorem 3.3 is complete.

    By the method used in Theorem 3.3, we consider the sup-solution ˉY(t,x) satisfying the following equation, for i=1,2,,n

    {dˉu(i)=[ˉu(i)xx+ˉu(i)(pa1ˉu(i))]dt+ϵˉudWt,ˉu(i)0=u(i)0.

    Similar to the proof of Theorem 3.3, we obtain the following result:

    Theorem 3.4. For any Heaviside functions u(i)0, ˉY(t,x) is a solution to (3.1), then the asymptotic wave speed c(ˉY) satisfies

    c(ˉY)=4p2ϵ2a.s. (3.16)

    Based on discussion above, and combaining Theorem 3.3 and Theorem 3.4, with Lemma 3.2 we can achieve the conclusion:

    4a2ϵ2c4p2ϵ2a.s. (3.17)

    which ends of the proof of Theorem 3.1.

    Recently, Zhao and Shao [26] studied the asymptotic stability and stability of stochastic 3-species cooperative system without diffusion. Shao et al. [27] studied the stochastic permanence, stability and optimal harvesting policy of a 3-three species cooperative system with delays and Lévy jumps. In this section, we apply the above conclusions to the following 3-species stochastic cooperative system and give some results about stochastic travelling waves

    {du=[uxx+u(a1b1u+c1v)]dt+ϵudWt,dv=[vxx+v(a2b2v+c2u+d1w)]dt+ϵvdWt,dw=[wxx+w(a3b3w+c3v)]dt+ϵwdWt,u(0,x)=u0,v(0,x)=v0,w(0,x)=w0. (4.1)

    If min{bi}>max{ci,d1} and b2b1+b3, it is easy to know that (0,0,0) is unstable, and (a1b1+c1b1×a2b1b3+a1b3c2+a3b1d1b1b2b3b1c3d1b3c1c2,a2b1b3+a1b3c2+a3b1d1b1b2b3b1c3d1b3c1c2,a3b3+c3b3×a2b1b3+a1b3c2+a3b1d1b1b2b3b1c3d1b3c1c2):=(p1,p2,p3) is the only stable point, which implies that 3-species coexist. Repeating the above argument on the stochastic cooperative systems (4.1), we have the following results:

    Theorem 4.1. For any Heaviside functions u0,v0,w0, and ai,bi,ci,d1 are positive constants satisfying min{bi}>max{ci,d1}, b2b1+b3, then for a.e. ωΩ, there exists a travelling wave solution to Eq (4.1). Moreover, the asymptotic wave speed can be obtained

    4a2ϵ2c4p2ϵ2a.s., (4.2)

    where

    p=2max{ci,d1}×max{E[esup0rttrϵdWs](u0+v0+w0+αkϵ22k),|u0|2+|v0|2+|w0|2+ϵ6+(2α+1)318k2,p1,p2,p3}+α,

    and α=max{ai}, a=min{ai}, k=min{bi}max{ci,d1}3.

    This paper introduces the travelling wave solution of stochastic N-species cooperative systems with noise, and we obtain the existence of travelling wave solution in law and estimate its corresponding wave speed. The upper bound of asymptotic wave speed depends on all the coefficients and the strength and noise, while the lower bound only relies on the environment capacity and strength of the noise. In fact, the minimal propagation speed of travelling wave depends on the supporting capacity of the natural environment, and the maximum propagation speed relies on the interspecific interaction intensity and intrinsic growth rate.

    The authors have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.

    This paper has been funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (11771449, 12031020, 61841302), and Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China (2020JJ4102). In addition, we thank the anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.

    The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.



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