Optimal control approach to developing sex-structured release strategies for dengue prevention

Evan Gibbs; Jordy Cevallos–Chavez; Khaled Elhassan; Jimena Sanchez; Unnati Gohil; Heliana Arias Castro; Evan Gibbs; Jordy Cevallos–Chavez; Khaled Elhassan; Jimena Sanchez; Unnati Gohil; Heliana Arias Castro

doi:10.3934/mbe.2026087

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2026, Volume 23, Issue 8: 2393-2428. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2026087

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Optimal control approach to developing sex-structured release strategies for dengue prevention

1.
Department of Mathematics, York College of Pennsylvania, York, PA 17345, USA
2.
Department of Engineering Sciences and Applied Mathematics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA
3.
Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, 1031 Palm Walk, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
4.
School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, 900 E Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
5.
College of Arts and Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
6.
Department of Mathematics, Scripps College, Claremont, CA 91711, USA
7.
Department of Mathematics, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle del Cauca 760032, Colombia

Received: 25 April 2026 Revised: 25 June 2026 Accepted: 13 July 2026 Published: 03 August 2026

Dengue remains a public health challenge due to the persistence of Aedes aegypti populations and the limited effectiveness of medical and vector control interventions. The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes has been used in multiple regions; yet, release protocols are often heuristically structured, with limited optimization. In particular, the impacts of mosquito sex structure and strain-specific effects remain unclear. This study develops a sex-structured dynamical model that links within-vector Wolbachia dynamics, such as cytoplasmic incompatibility and vertical transmission, with between-host dengue transmission. An optimal control framework is used to determine cost-effective releases of male and female mosquitoes over a finite intervention horizon, with mosquito dispersal on a finite time interval. The cost effectiveness of a release program relies on minimizing releases and dengue cases. The approach is applied to three Wolbachia strains, wAlbB, wMel, and wMelPop, to assess how strain-specific fitness and viral blocking influence optimal release plans. The analysis identified sex-structured strategies that diverge from in-field protocols, supporting the notion that commonly used plans may benefit from optimization by sex. Additionally, differences were noted among strains, which suggests that optimal sex-structured releases may vary with Wolbachia strain used.
- Wolbachia,
- dengue,
- sex-structured model,
- optimal control,
- public health interventions
Citation: Evan Gibbs, Jordy Cevallos–Chavez, Khaled Elhassan, Jimena Sanchez, Unnati Gohil, Heliana Arias Castro. Optimal control approach to developing sex-structured release strategies for dengue prevention[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2026, 23(8): 2393-2428. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2026087

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Abstract

Dengue remains a public health challenge due to the persistence of Aedes aegypti populations and the limited effectiveness of medical and vector control interventions. The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes has been used in multiple regions; yet, release protocols are often heuristically structured, with limited optimization. In particular, the impacts of mosquito sex structure and strain-specific effects remain unclear. This study develops a sex-structured dynamical model that links within-vector Wolbachia dynamics, such as cytoplasmic incompatibility and vertical transmission, with between-host dengue transmission. An optimal control framework is used to determine cost-effective releases of male and female mosquitoes over a finite intervention horizon, with mosquito dispersal on a finite time interval. The cost effectiveness of a release program relies on minimizing releases and dengue cases. The approach is applied to three Wolbachia strains, wAlbB, wMel, and wMelPop, to assess how strain-specific fitness and viral blocking influence optimal release plans. The analysis identified sex-structured strategies that diverge from in-field protocols, supporting the notion that commonly used plans may benefit from optimization by sex. Additionally, differences were noted among strains, which suggests that optimal sex-structured releases may vary with Wolbachia strain used.

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