Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi Province with discrete time imported cases

1.
School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, 030024, China
2.
Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, 030051, China
3.
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China
4.
School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, 750004, China
5.
School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China
6.
Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing 100071, China
7.
College of Media and International Culture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310028, China
8.
Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 311121, China

Received: 20 March 2020 Accepted: 17 May 2020 Published: 21 May 2020

Abstract
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Since December 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (WHO named COVID-19) swept across China. In Shanxi Province, the cumulative confirmed cases finally reached 133 since the first confirmed case appeared on January 22 2020, and most of which were imported cases from Hubei Province. Reasons for this ongoing surge in Shanxi province, both imported and autochthonous infected cases, are currently unclear and demand urgent investigation. In this paper, we developed a SEIQR difference-equation model of COVID-19 that took into account the transmission with discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis. Our findings suggest that if the lock-down date in Wuhan is earlier, the infectious cases are fewer. Moreover, we reveal the effects of city lock-down date on the final scale of cases: if the date is advanced two days, the cases may decrease one half (67, 95% CI: 66–68); if the date is delayed for two days, the cases may reach about 196 (95% CI: 193–199). Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to study the transmission of COVID-19, in other provinces of China except Hubei. Especially, the method may also be used in countries with the first confirmed case is imported.
- COVID-19,
- imported cases,
- SEIQR model,
- difference equation,
- city lock-down strategy
Citation: Ming-Tao Li, Gui-Quan Sun, Juan Zhang, Yu Zhao, Xin Pei, Li Li, Yong Wang, Wen-Yi Zhang, Zi-Ke Zhang, Zhen Jin. Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi Province with discrete time imported cases[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2020, 17(4): 3710-3720. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020208

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Abstract

Since December 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (WHO named COVID-19) swept across China. In Shanxi Province, the cumulative confirmed cases finally reached 133 since the first confirmed case appeared on January 22 2020, and most of which were imported cases from Hubei Province. Reasons for this ongoing surge in Shanxi province, both imported and autochthonous infected cases, are currently unclear and demand urgent investigation. In this paper, we developed a SEIQR difference-equation model of COVID-19 that took into account the transmission with discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis. Our findings suggest that if the lock-down date in Wuhan is earlier, the infectious cases are fewer. Moreover, we reveal the effects of city lock-down date on the final scale of cases: if the date is advanced two days, the cases may decrease one half (67, 95% CI: 66–68); if the date is delayed for two days, the cases may reach about 196 (95% CI: 193–199). Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to study the transmission of COVID-19, in other provinces of China except Hubei. Especially, the method may also be used in countries with the first confirmed case is imported.

References

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