The ability to predict stock-market indices is important to investors and financial decision-makers. However, the uncertainty of available information makes accurate prediction extremely challenging. In this work, we propose and validate a multi-level stacking model of long short-term memory (LSTM) units for the short-term prediction of stock-index closing prices. The proposed machine-learning model is trained using historical data to predict next-day closing prices. The first layer of the multi-level stacked structure contains an ensemble of recurrent LSTM models that receives time-series data of historic opening, closing, high and low prices for current and previous days and outputs predictions about the next day's closing prices. The second and third layers consist of stacked multi-layer perceptron meta-models. We validated the new model on two stock indices, demonstrating its advantages over single-LSTM models. We also compared its performance against several extant statistical and machine-learning models on a subset of Standard & Poor's 500 index data between 2000 and 2016 using correlation and statistical metrics.
Citation: Fatima Tfaily, Mohamad M. Fouad. Multi-level stacking of LSTM recurrent models for predicting stock-market indices[J]. Data Science in Finance and Economics, 2022, 2(2): 147-162. doi: 10.3934/DSFE.2022007
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The ability to predict stock-market indices is important to investors and financial decision-makers. However, the uncertainty of available information makes accurate prediction extremely challenging. In this work, we propose and validate a multi-level stacking model of long short-term memory (LSTM) units for the short-term prediction of stock-index closing prices. The proposed machine-learning model is trained using historical data to predict next-day closing prices. The first layer of the multi-level stacked structure contains an ensemble of recurrent LSTM models that receives time-series data of historic opening, closing, high and low prices for current and previous days and outputs predictions about the next day's closing prices. The second and third layers consist of stacked multi-layer perceptron meta-models. We validated the new model on two stock indices, demonstrating its advantages over single-LSTM models. We also compared its performance against several extant statistical and machine-learning models on a subset of Standard & Poor's 500 index data between 2000 and 2016 using correlation and statistical metrics.
This paper is inspired by the nano-ecology experiments on the bacterium Escherichia coli by Keymer et al. reported upon in [6] and the subsequent chemotactic reaction-diffusion model developed and analyzed in [3] prompted by the experiments. In the experiment, Keymer et al. fabricated a one-dimensional array of 85 "microhabitat patches (MHP's)" for the E.coli which are linked by corridors. The corridors allow the bacteria to move from one MHP to the next, and are sufficiently more narrow than the MHP's that the MHP's may be viewed as the "nodes" in the overall environment. Each MHP is connected to feeding channels through which a controllable amount of nutrient passes. Specifically, an individual MHP has dimensions
In [3], the authors develop a reaction-diffusion-advection model based on the experiments reported in [6], while also taking into account that bacteria often aggregate on the basis of "self-attraction mediated by the excretion of chemoattractants". Their derivation leads to a quasilinear parabolic system for the densities of bacteria and nutrient substrate in a one dimensional habitat, in which bacteria self-aggregate and aggregate in response to nutrient substrate abundance.
In this paper, our aim is to model the situation described in [6] by means of a discrete-diffusion (or patch-island) model for the densities of bacteria and nutrient that also can incorporate bacterial self-aggregation and/or bacterial cueing upon nutrient substrate abundance. We believe that this approach allows us to capture the discrete manner in which micro-habitat patches are embedded in the overall "landscape" that is true to the spirit of [6], while also capturing aggregative behavior as highlighted in [3]. Taking account of the linear structure of the fabricated habitat in [6] leads to "nearest neighbor" dispersal between patches, i.e., bacteria from the
Two further aspects of our model merit comment at this point. First of all, our patch model has the feature that at equilibrium, if the bacteria density is zero in some patch, it is zero in all patches. That such is the case is an inherent property of the modeling framework. Indeed, the discrete diffusion component of dispersal leads to an "irreducible" coupling of the patches unless some corridor is completely closed, in which case we have two entirely separated landscapes. This feature is analogous to the maximum principle in a reaction-diffusion context. However, one should note that bacteria density in unfavorable patches "far away" from a source patch would be expected to be arbitrarily low and we will illustrate this point via numerical calculations.
The second feature of our model that we should note concerns the dynamics within a single patch in the absence of dispersal between patches. Like [6] and [3], we posit logistic dynamics for the bacteria. The traditional "r-K" form of the logistic model, used in both [6] and [3] has
dxdt=rx(1−xK), | (1) |
where
dxdt=rx−αx2, | (2) |
where
The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. We discuss within patch dynamics in section 2, leading to the development of the multi-patch model in section 3. We present our mathematical analysis of the model in sections 4 and 5. In section 4, we consider general discrete diffusion rates, whereas in section 5, we assume diffusion rates are equal. We discuss the results of our numerical investigations in section 6. We end by drawing some biological conclusions in section 7.
As noted in the introduction, the single patch dynamics of the system in [6] and [3] are described by
dpdt=(μs−d)p(1−pK)dsdt=λ(1−s)−εμsp | (3) |
where
dpdt=(μs−d)p−p2Kdsdt=λ(β−s)−εμsp. | (4) |
To analyze (4), observe first that (4) has either one or two equilibria. To this end, note that the substrate density
dzdt=λ(β−z), |
which converges over time to
dwdt=(μβ−d)w, |
for
So now suppose
p∗=K(μs∗−d), |
and
p∗=λ(β−s∗)εμs∗, |
so that
εμ2K(s∗)2+(λ−εμKd)s∗−λβ=0 | (5) |
so that
s∗=(εμKd−λ)+√(εμKd−λ)2+4λβεμ2K2εμ2K |
is the only positive root of (5). Setting
It is easy to check that the Jacobian matrix for an equilibrium to (4) is
[μs−d−2pKμp−εμs−λ−εμp] |
which is
[μβ−d0−εμβ−λ] |
when
dsdt≤λ(β−s)dpdt≤(μβ−d)p−p2K |
for
D={(p,s)|0≤p≤K(μβ−d),0≤s≤β}. |
In particular,
[−p∗Kμp∗−εμs∗−λβs∗] |
Thus the determinant of the Jacobian matrix at
B=1ps,F=(μs−d)p−p2K,andG=λ(β−s)−εμps |
one may calculate that
∂(BF)∂p+∂(BG)∂s<0 |
in the interior of
Here we take a discrete-diffusion (patch island) approach to model dispersal between adjacent patches, which is linear, augmented by a discrete version of nonlinear chemotactic aggregation, where the advection is biased toward higher conspecific density or higher substrate concentration. Both effects are included in the reaction-advection-diffusion model in [3] which mirrors discussion in [6]. The linear level dispersal is standard in models of this type. To model chemotactic self-aggregation, we will posit a tendency for the bacteria to go from, say, patch
γpimax{pi+1−pi,0} |
is subtracted from
νpimax{si+1−si,0} |
where
dp1dt=−D21p1+D12p2−γp1max{p2−p1,0}+γp2max{p1−p2,0}−νp1max{s2−s1,0}+νp2max{s1−s2,0}+(μs1−d)p1−αp21ds1dt=λ(β1−s1)−εμs1p1⋮dpidt=Di,i−1pi−1+Di,i+1pi+1−Di−1,ipi−Di+1,ipi+γpi−1max{pi−pi−1,0}−γpimax{pi−1−pi,0}+γpi+1max{pi−pi+1,0}−γpimax{pi+1−pi,0}+νpi−1max{si−si−1,0}−νpimax{si−1−si,0}+νpi+1max{si−si+1,0}−νpimax{si+1−si,0}+(μsi−d)pi−αp2idsidt=λ(βi−si)−εμsipi⋮dpndt=−Dn−1,npn+Dn,n−1pn−1−γpnmax{pn−1−pn,0}+γpn−1max{pn−pn−1,0}−νpnmax{sn−1−sn,0}+νpn−1max{sn−sn−1,0}+(μsn−d)pn−αp2ndsndt=λ(βn−sn)−εμsnpn | (6) |
where
In the analysis that follows, we will set
νpimax{si+1−si,0} |
is bounded by
We will give persistence results for the n-patch analogue of (6) with
dp1dt=(−D21p1+D12p2)−γp1max{p2−p1,0}+γp2max{p1−p2,0}+(μs1−d)p1−αp21ds1dt=λ(β1−s1)−εμs1p1dp2dt=(D21p1−D12p2)−γp2max{p1−p2,0}+γp1max{p2−p1,0}+(μs2−d)p2−αp22ds2dt=λ(β2−s2)−εμs2p2 | (7) |
Here we are interested in the solution flow for (7) on the set
X1={(p1,s1,p2,s2):pi>0,0<si<βi,i=1,2}, |
so we start our discussion with a verification of this fact.
Proposition 1. The solution flow for (7) is forward invariant on
Proof. Suppose that
So consider
dsidt=λ(βi−si)−εμsipi |
Since
dzdt=λ(βi−z)z(0)=si(0) |
on
dwdt=λ(βi−(1+εμMiλ)w)w(0)=si(0) |
which guarantees that
dydt=(μs1−d−D21−γmax{p2−p1,0})y−αy2y(0)=p1(0) |
Thus
Observe, for example, that if
Next we show that the solution flow of (7) is asymptotically bounded or point dissipative. To this end, observe that
ddt(p1+p2)=(μs1−d)p1−αp21+(μs2−d)p2−αp22≤ρ(p1+p2)−α(p21+p22) |
where
ρ(p1+p2)−α(p21+p22)≤ρ(p1+p2)−α2(p1+p2)2. |
Consequently, given any
p1(t)+p2(t)≤2ρα+σ |
for
Proposition 2. Solutions of (7) are asymptotically bounded in
We observe that Propositions 1 and 2 extend in an analogous manner to the n-patch analogue of (6) with
Verifying permanence or uniform persistence in (7) via Theorem 4.5 of [9] requires an understanding of the flow of (7) restricted to the boundary of
Theorem 4.1. The system (7) is permanent (uniformly persistent) if and only if
Ws({(0,β1,0,β2)})∩X1=∅. |
We now examine when Theorem 4.1 holds. We begin with some simple observations. Note from (7) that
d(p1+p2)dt=(μs1−d)p1+(μs2−d)p2−α(p21+p22) | (8) |
If
dzdt=zz(0)=p1(0)+p2(0) |
where
dzdt=cz−αz2z(T1)=p1(T1)+p2(T1), |
where
Consequently, given any
So for the remainder of this section, we assume that
The Jacobi matrix at
J(0,β1,0,β2)=[−D21+μβ1−d0D120−εμβ1−λ00D210−D12+μβ2−d000−εμβ2−λ] | (9) |
We will use
A=[−D21+(μβ1−d)D12D21−D12+(μβ2−d)]. | (10) |
So the other two eigenvalues are given by
σ=Tr±√(Tr)2−4Δ2 |
where
Δ=(μβ1−d−D21)(μβ2−d)−D12(μβ1−d)Tr=(μβ1−d−D21)+(μβ2−d−D12) |
it is easy to see that
So suppose now that
μ(β1−r1)−d−D21−r2>0 |
and suppose there is a solution of (7) with
p1(t)<w<μ(β1−r1)−d−D21−r2αs1(t)>β1−r1 |
and
p2(t)<r2γ. |
Then
dp1dt=(−D21p1+D12p2)−γp1max{p2−p1,0}+γp2max{p1−p2,0}+(μs1−d)p1−αp21≥−D21p1−γp1max{p2−p1,0}+(μs1−d)p1−αp21. |
Now
−γp1max{p2−p1,0}≥−r2p1. |
Hence we obtain that for
dp1dt≥(μ(β1−r1)−d−D21−r2)p1−αp21. |
Consequently,
dρdt=(μ(β1−r1)−d−D21−r2)ρ−αρ2 |
on
Ws({(0,β1,0,β2)})∩X1=∅. |
So (7) remains permanent when
When
Proposition 3. For
Proof. Suppose (7) admits an equilibrium with
D21p1+γp1max{p2−p1,0}−(μs1−d)p1+αp21=(D12+γmax{p1−p2,0})p2 |
which is equivalent to
D21+γmax{p2−p1,0}−(μs1−d)+αp1=(D12+γmax{p1−p2,0})(p2p1) | (11) |
For the time dependent problem, we have
ddt(p1+p2)≤(μβ1−d)(p1+p2)−α2(p1+p2)2 |
so that
One easily observes that the left hand side of (11) tends to
However, if we add the equations for
0=(μs1−d)p1−αp21+(μs2−d)p2−αp22. |
Thus
0=(μs1−d)−αp1+(μs2−d)p2p1−αp22p1 |
which implies
[d−μs2+αp2](p2p1)=μs1−d−αp1. |
Recall that
p2p1=μs1−d−αp1d−μs2+αp2≤μβ1−dd−μβ2 |
independent of
Propositions 1 and 2 and Theorem 4.1 extend to the analogues of (7) for an arbitrary number of micro habitat patches, so that permanence or uniform persistence is determined by the stable manifold of
So the situation of primary interest is when
(D21+γmax{p2−p1,0})(p1p2)+(D23+γmax{p2−p3,0})(p3p2)=D12+D32−(μs2−d)+αp2. |
Consequently, if
0=n∑i=1(μsi−d)pi−α(n∑i=1p2i) |
which we can re-write as
∑i≠2(d−μsi+αpi)(pip2)=(μs2−d−αp2) |
Since
pip2≤μs2−d−αp2d−μsi+αpi≤μβ2−dd−μβi. |
So there can not be permanence of the system if diffusion from patch 2 is too large. Again, the interpretation is that patch 2 effectively becomes a sink instead of a source if
In this section we focus on the case where the diffusion rates of the bacteria are everywhere equal. Our purpose is to highlight further the parallel between the role of diffusion in our model as compared to its role in a reaction-diffusion analogue, such as [7]. Again, we consider the case where exactly one patch is a source; i.e., where
To this end, for the sake of specificity, we take
A_1(D)= \begin{pmatrix} a_1-D & D & 0 & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr D & -a_2-2D & D & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr & \vdots & & \ddots & & \vdots & \cr 0 & 0 & 0 & \ldots & D & -a_{n-1}-2D & D \cr 0 & 0 & 0 & \ldots & 0 & D & -a_{n}-D \cr \end{pmatrix} |
Since
Theorem 5.1. There is a unique positive number
Remark 1. Since
Before proving this result, we introduce some notation and make some preliminary observations. We transform
B_1(D)= \begin{pmatrix} a_1-D & D & 0 & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr a_1 & -a_2-D & D & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr a_1 & -a_2 & -a_3-D & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr & \vdots & & \ddots & & \vdots & \cr a_1 & -a_2 & -a_3 & \ldots & -a_{n-2} & -a_{n-1}-D & D \cr a_1 & -a_2 & -a_3 & \ldots & -a_{n-2} & -a_{n-1} & -a_{n} \cr \end{pmatrix} |
Next we perform the following sequence of column operations: starting with column
C_1(D)=\begin{pmatrix} a_1 & D & 0 & \ldots & 0 & 0\cr a_1-a_2 & -a_2 & D & \ldots & 0 & 0\cr a_1-a_2-a_3 & -a_2-a_3 & -a_3 & \ldots & 0 & 0\cr & \vdots & & \ddots & \vdots & \cr c_{n-1,1} & c_{n-1,2} & c_{n-1,3} & \ldots & -a_{n-1} & D \cr c_{n,1} & c_{n,2} & c_{n,3} & \ldots & -a_{n-1}-a_{n} & -a_{n} \cr \end{pmatrix} |
where
Lemma 5.2. The polynomial
p_1(D)=(-1)^{n-1}(a_1-a_2-a_3-\cdots-a_n)D^{n-1}+\cdots+(-1)^{n-1}a_1 a_2 \cdots a_n. |
Proof. The constant term of
\det {C_1}(D) = \sum\limits_{\sigma \in {S_n}} {{\mathop{\rm sgn}} } (\sigma )\prod\limits_{i = 1}^n {{c_{i,\sigma (i)}}} |
and notice that since
c_{1,2}c_{2,3}c_{3,4}\cdots c_{n-1,n}c_{n,1}=(a_1-a_2-a_3-\cdots-a_n)D^{n-1} |
and the corresponding permutation
Notice that the lowest and highest degree terms of
[a_1-2D,a_1]\cup\bigcup\limits_{j=2}^{n-1}[-a_j-4D,-a_j]\cup[-a_n-2D,-a_n]. |
Notice that this implies that all positive eigenvalues must lie in the interval
Lemma 5.3. Let
Remark 2. Theorem 5.1 follows once we show
Proof. The diagonal matrix
Similarly, for
|p_1(D)|=|\lambda_1(D)\cdots\lambda_{2j}(D)\lambda_{2j+1}(D)\cdots\lambda_{n}(D)|\le a_1^{2j}\left(\max\limits_{2\le k \le n}(a_k)+4D\right)^{n-2j}. | (12) |
By Lemma 5.2,
As mentioned in the remark above, to complete the proof of Theorem 5.1, we must show that
For
A_k(D)= \begin{pmatrix} -a_k-2D & D & 0 & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr D & -a_{k+1}-2D & D & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr & \vdots & & \ddots & & \vdots & \cr 0 & 0 & 0 & \ldots & D & -a_{n-1}-2D & D \cr 0 & 0 & 0 & \ldots & 0 & D & -a_{n}-D \cr \end{pmatrix} |
and take
p_k(D)=\det A_k(D), 1\le k\le n. |
As with
\bigcup\limits_{j = k}^{n - 1} {[ - {a_j} - 4D, - {a_j}] \cup [ - {a_n} - 2D, - {a_n}]} |
and thus the eigenvalues of
{\hat A}_k(D)=\begin{pmatrix} a_n+D & -D & 0 & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr -D & a_{n-1}+2D & -D & \ldots & 0 & 0 & 0\cr & \vdots & & \ddots & & \vdots & \cr 0 & 0 & 0 & \ldots & -D & a_{k+1}+2D & -D \cr 0 & 0 & 0 & \ldots & 0 & -D & a_{k}+2D \cr \end{pmatrix} |
and
\det(A_k(D))=(-1)^{n-k+1}\det({\hat A}_k(D)) |
Since the matrices
R_k^T\,R_k={\hat A}_k. |
Starting in the upper left corner, we let
r_n^2=a_n+D. | (13) |
Then for
R_{k-1}=\begin{pmatrix}{\bar R}_{k} & v_{k-1} \cr 0 & r_{k-1}\cr\end{pmatrix} |
we see that
{\hat A}_{k-1} = R_{k-1}^T R_{k-1} = \begin{pmatrix}{\bar R}_{k}^T\,{\bar R}_{k} & {\bar R}_{k}^T\,v_{k-1}\cr v_{k-1}^T\,{\bar R}_{k} & v_{k-1}^T v_{k-1}+r_{k-1}^2\cr\end{pmatrix} = \begin{pmatrix}{\hat A}_{k} & b \cr b^T & a_{k-1}+2D \cr\end{pmatrix} |
where
b^T = \left[\begin{matrix}0 & 0 & \ldots & 0 & -D\end{matrix}\right]. |
Thus we see that in fact
v_{k-1}^T = \left[\begin{matrix}0 & 0 & \ldots & 0 & -D/r_k\end{matrix}\right] |
and hence also that
D^2/r_k^2+r_{k-1}^2=a_{k-1}+2D. |
As mentioned above,
p_1(D)=(a_1-D)p_2(D)-D^2p_3(D). |
Since
Q(D)=\frac{p_1(D)}{p_2(D)} = a_1 - D - \frac{D^2\,p_3(D)}{p_2(D)} | (14) |
in our final
Lemma 5.4. The function
\lim\limits_{D\to\infty}Q(D)=a_1-a_2-a_3-\cdots-a_n. |
In particular,
Remark 3. Since the roots of
Proof. From (14) we consider
\begin{array}{l} {f_2}(D) = - \frac{{{D^2}{\mkern 1mu} {p_3}(D)}}{{{p_2}(D)}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad = - \frac{{{D^2}{\mkern 1mu} \det ({A_3}(D))}}{{\det ({A_2}(D))}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad = \frac{{{D^2}{\mkern 1mu} \det ({{\hat A}_3}(D))}}{{\det ({{\hat A}_2}(D))}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad = \frac{{{D^2}{\mkern 1mu} \det {{({R_3})}^2}}}{{\det {{({R_2})}^2}}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad = \frac{{{D^2}{\mkern 1mu} \det {{({R_3})}^2}}}{{\det {{({R_3})}^2}r_2^2}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad = \frac{{{D^2}}}{{r_2^2}} - D. \end{array} |
Recall from (13) that
f_n(D) = \frac{D^2}{r_n^2}-D = \frac{D^2}{D+a_n}-D = \frac{-D\,a_n}{D+a_n}. |
Notice that
{f_{n'}}(D) = \frac{{ - a_n^2}}{{{{(D + {a_n})}^2}}} < 0,\quad \text{for}\;D \ge 0 |
Further,
Assume that for
f_k(D)=\frac{D^2}{r_k^2}-D |
satisfies
{f_k}(D) < 0\;{\rm{for}}\;D > 0, | (15) |
{f_{k'}}(D) < 0\;{\rm{for}}\;D \ge 0,\;{\rm{and}} | (16) |
{f_k}(D) \to - {a_k} - {a_{k + 1}} - \cdots - {a_n}\;{\rm{as}}\;D \to \infty . | (17) |
Notice
\begin{array}{l} {f_{k - 1}}(D) = \frac{{{D^2}}}{{r_{k - 1}^2}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad \;\; = \frac{{{D^2}}}{{{a_{k - 1}} + 2D - {D^2}/r_k^2}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad \;\; = \frac{{{D^2}}}{{{a_{k - 1}} + D - ({D^2}/r_k^2 - D)}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad \;\; = \frac{{{D^2}}}{{{a_{k - 1}} + D - {f_k}(D)}} - D\\ \quad \quad \quad \;\; = \frac{{{D^2} - D({a_{k - 1}} + D - {f_k}(D))}}{{{a_{k - 1}} + D - {f_k}(D)}}\\ \quad \quad \quad \;\; = \frac{{ - D({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))}}{{D + ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)).}} \end{array} |
Hence
\begin{array}{l} {f_{k - {1^\prime }}}(D){\rm{ = }}\{ [ - ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)) + D{f_{k'}}(D)][D + ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))]{\rm{ = }}\\ \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad + D({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))(1 - {f_{k'}}(D))\} /{(D + ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)))^2}\\ \quad \quad \quad {\rm{ = }}\{ - D({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)) - {({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))^2} + {D^2}{f_{k'}}(D)\\ \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad + D{f_{k'}}(D)({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)) + D({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))\\ \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad - D{f_{k'}}(D)({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))\} /{(D + ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)))^2}\\ \quad \quad \quad {\rm{ = }}\{ - {({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))^2} + {D^2}{f_{k'}}(D)\} /{(D + ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D)))^2} \end{array} |
which is negative for
\mathop {\lim }\limits_{D \to \infty } {f_{k - 1}}(D) = \mathop {\lim }\limits_{D \to \infty } \frac{{ - {a_{k - 1}} + {f_k}(D)}}{{1 + ({a_{k - 1}} - {f_k}(D))/D.}} = - {a_{k - 1}} - {a_k} - \cdots - {a_n}, |
which completes the induction step. Notice that
Q(D)=a_1+f_2(D). |
and Lemma 5.4 follows. As mentioned above, this proves Theorem 5.1.
We have shown in the preceding sections that if there is a single source patch, the model predicts persistence of the bacteria in the micro-habitat patch array so long as the diffusion rates are not too large. The model is spatially implicit, but the underlying assumption that the array is linear (i.e. one must pass through patch
Experiment 2 considers a case where there are 7 microhabitat patches. The middle patch, patch
Patch Number | |||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
a | 0.0000589 | 0.000331 | 0.00187 | 0.0134 | 0.00139 | 0.000208 | 0.0000305 |
b | 0.0000584 | 0.000307 | 0.00172 | 0.0133 | 0.00148 | 0.000219 | 0.0000324 |
c | 0.0000530 | 0.000297 | 0.00165 | 0.0133 | 0.00153 | 0.000226 | 0.0000333 |
d | 0.0000497 | 0.000278 | 0.00154 | 0.0133 | 0.00164 | 0.000242 | 0.0000356 |
e | 0.0000470 | 0.000263 | 0.00144 | 0.0133 | 0.00178 | 0.000259 | 0.0000382 |
f | 0.0000463 | 0.000259 | 0.00142 | 0.0134 | 0.00181 | 0.000264 | 0.0000389 |
g | 0.0000457 | 0.000256 | 0.00140 | 0.0134 | 0.00185 | 0.000269 | 0.0000397 |
h | 0.0000472 | 0.000264 | 0.00145 | 0.0145 | 0.00229 | 0.000326 | 0.0000478 |
This paper has been inspired by the nano-ecology experiments on the bacterium Escherichia coli by Keymer et al. described in [6] and the subsequent chemotactic reaction-diffusion model developed and analyzed in [3] which was prompted by the experiments. Our main aim was to model the system via an island-patch or discrete-diffusion system so as to capture the discrete nature of the micro-habitat patches (MHP's) within the overall array of patches and corridors. We also modified the formulation of logistic growth in the within-patch model so as to allow for net negative growth rates in individual patches.
The linear nature of the array of MHP's results in a tri-diagonal system in which the bacteria must pass through patch
The prediction of the model is either that the bacteria persist in all MHP's or that they tend toward extinction in all patches. Moreover, one may use acyclicity results from persistence theory to see that which alternative obtains is determined by whether the stable set of the equilibrium with the bacteria absent contains any fully nontrivial initial configuration of the system (as in Theorem 4.1). Such is a consequence of the Acyclicity Theorem of persistence theory via the results of [9].
The model exhibits strong source-sink dynamics when resource flow into some MHP's is set low enough so that a bacteria population is not sustainable in such patches in isolation. In such instances, diffusive dispersal may serve as a rescuing mechanism. Indeed, if there is a single patch in which the bacteria can survive in isolation (what we term a favorable patch), a slow rate of diffusion from the favorable patch leads to coexistence in all patches. However, if the rate of diffusion from the favorable patch is too high relative to diffusion into it from adjacent patches, the rescue effect is insufficient and the bacteria tend to extinction in the system. Such is the case whether or not there is bacterial self-aggregation in the system.
Of course, such a disparity in dispersal is not possible in the special but natural case when the diffusion rates are the same in all patches. Here we consider the case when patch 1 is the sole favorable patch and the overall habitat is unfavorable in the sense that the sum over all patches of net growth rates is negative. This assumption is analogous to the assumption that the integral of the growth rate is negative in [7]. In this case, when there is no bacterial self-aggregation, persistence is equivalent to the instability of the bacteria absent equilibrium. We show in Theorem 2 that there is a unique positive threshold value of the diffusion rate D so that the bacteria absent equilibrium is unstable for diffusion rates below the threshold and stable for values above the threshold. Such is the case even though the determinant of the relevant Jacobi matrix is not monotonic as a function of the diffusion rate.
Based on our numerical experiments, the effect of bacterial self-aggregation appears to be to concentrate the population in favorable MHP's. In our two experiments, we consider the situation where we have 5 and 7 patches wherein the middle patch is favorable while the overall environment is net unfavorable in the sense we have described. The long term population density is positive in all patches but trails off when one moves away from the favorable patch. As the self-aggregation parameter is increased in Experiment
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Patch Number | |||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
a | 0.0000589 | 0.000331 | 0.00187 | 0.0134 | 0.00139 | 0.000208 | 0.0000305 |
b | 0.0000584 | 0.000307 | 0.00172 | 0.0133 | 0.00148 | 0.000219 | 0.0000324 |
c | 0.0000530 | 0.000297 | 0.00165 | 0.0133 | 0.00153 | 0.000226 | 0.0000333 |
d | 0.0000497 | 0.000278 | 0.00154 | 0.0133 | 0.00164 | 0.000242 | 0.0000356 |
e | 0.0000470 | 0.000263 | 0.00144 | 0.0133 | 0.00178 | 0.000259 | 0.0000382 |
f | 0.0000463 | 0.000259 | 0.00142 | 0.0134 | 0.00181 | 0.000264 | 0.0000389 |
g | 0.0000457 | 0.000256 | 0.00140 | 0.0134 | 0.00185 | 0.000269 | 0.0000397 |
h | 0.0000472 | 0.000264 | 0.00145 | 0.0145 | 0.00229 | 0.000326 | 0.0000478 |
Patch Number | |||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
a | 0.0000589 | 0.000331 | 0.00187 | 0.0134 | 0.00139 | 0.000208 | 0.0000305 |
b | 0.0000584 | 0.000307 | 0.00172 | 0.0133 | 0.00148 | 0.000219 | 0.0000324 |
c | 0.0000530 | 0.000297 | 0.00165 | 0.0133 | 0.00153 | 0.000226 | 0.0000333 |
d | 0.0000497 | 0.000278 | 0.00154 | 0.0133 | 0.00164 | 0.000242 | 0.0000356 |
e | 0.0000470 | 0.000263 | 0.00144 | 0.0133 | 0.00178 | 0.000259 | 0.0000382 |
f | 0.0000463 | 0.000259 | 0.00142 | 0.0134 | 0.00181 | 0.000264 | 0.0000389 |
g | 0.0000457 | 0.000256 | 0.00140 | 0.0134 | 0.00185 | 0.000269 | 0.0000397 |
h | 0.0000472 | 0.000264 | 0.00145 | 0.0145 | 0.00229 | 0.000326 | 0.0000478 |