Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Mario Coccia; Mario Coccia

doi:10.3934/publichealth.2023012

AIMS Public Health

2023, Volume 10, Issue 1: 145-168. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2023012

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Review

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Mario Coccia ^,

National Research Council of Italy, Department of Social Sciences, Turin Research Area of the National Research Council-Strada delle Cacce, 73-10135 - Torino (Italy)

Received: 14 November 2022 Revised: 09 February 2023 Accepted: 19 February 2023 Published: 02 March 2023

Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.
- COVID-19 pandemic,
- infectious diseases,
- environmental factors,
- compartmental models,
- epidemiologic models,
- outlook,
- preparedness,
- surveillance,
- public health,
- health policy,
- policy responses,
- crisis management
Citation: Mario Coccia. Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2023, 10(1): 145-168. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2023012

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Abstract

Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.

Conflict of interests

I declare that I am the sole author of this manuscript, and I have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could influence the work reported in this paper. This study has no funders.

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