Bi-fidelity stochastic collocation methods for epidemic transport models with uncertainties

Giulia Bertaglia; Liu Liu; Lorenzo Pareschi; Xueyu Zhu; Giulia Bertaglia; Liu Liu; Lorenzo Pareschi; Xueyu Zhu

doi:10.3934/nhm.2022013

Networks and Heterogeneous Media

2022, Volume 17, Issue 3: 401-425. doi: 10.3934/nhm.2022013

Previous Article Next Article

Bi-fidelity stochastic collocation methods for epidemic transport models with uncertainties

1.
Istituto Nazionale di Alta Matematica "Francesco Severi" (INdAM), 00185 Roma, Italy
2.
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy
3.
Department of Mathematics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong
4.
Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA

Received: 01 October 2021 Revised: 01 January 2022 Published: 23 March 2022
Primary: 65C30, 65M08, 65L04, 92D30; Secondary: 82C40, 35L50, 35K57

Uncertainty in data is certainly one of the main problems in epidemiology, as shown by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The need for efficient methods capable of quantifying uncertainty in the mathematical model is essential in order to produce realistic scenarios of the spread of infection. In this paper, we introduce a bi-fidelity approach to quantify uncertainty in spatially dependent epidemic models. The approach is based on evaluating a high-fidelity model on a small number of samples properly selected from a large number of evaluations of a low-fidelity model. In particular, we will consider the class of multiscale transport models recently introduced in [13,7] as the high-fidelity reference and use simple two-velocity discrete models for low-fidelity evaluations. Both models share the same diffusive behavior and are solved with ad-hoc asymptotic-preserving numerical discretizations. A series of numerical experiments confirm the validity of the approach.

Correction: This article is copyrighted in 2022. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

Keywords:

Citation: Giulia Bertaglia, Liu Liu, Lorenzo Pareschi, Xueyu Zhu. Bi-fidelity stochastic collocation methods for epidemic transport models with uncertainties[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2022, 17(3): 401-425. doi: 10.3934/nhm.2022013

Related Papers:

[1]	Urszula Ledzewicz, Eugene Kashdan, Heinz Schättler, Nir Sochen . From the guest editors. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2011, 8(2): i-ii. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.2i
[2]	Janine Egert, Clemens Kreutz . Realistic simulation of time-course measurements in systems biology. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2023, 20(6): 10570-10589. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023467
[3]	Fred Brauer, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Thomas G. Hallam, Jia Li, Jianhong Wu, Yicang Zhou . From the Guest Editors. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2006, 3(1): i-ix. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2006.3.1i
[4]	Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta . Sociological phenomena as multiple nonlinearities: MTBI's new metaphor for complex human interactions. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(5&6): 1587-1607. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1587
[5]	Hal L. Smith . Tribute to Horst R. Thieme on the occasion of his 60th birthday. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2010, 7(1): i-iii. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.1i
[6]	David Logan . From the Guest Editor. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2007, 4(1): i-ii. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.1i
[7]	Adam Peddle, William Lee, Tuoi Vo . Modelling chemistry and biology after implantation of a drug-eluting stent. Part Ⅱ: Cell proliferation. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2018, 15(5): 1117-1135. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018050
[8]	Urszula Ledzewicz, Avner Friedman, Jacek Banasiak, Heinz Schättler, Edward M. Lungu . From the guest editors. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2013, 10(3): i-ii. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.3i
[9]	Carlos Castillo-Chávez, Christopher Kribs Zaleta, Yang Kuang, Baojun Song . From the Guest Editors. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2009, 6(2): i-ii. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.2i
[10]	Chichia Chiu, Jui-Ling Yu . An optimal adaptive time-stepping scheme for solving reaction-diffusion-chemotaxis systems. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2007, 4(2): 187-203. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.187

Abstract

Correction: This article is copyrighted in 2022. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

References

[1]	Disease contagion models coupled to crowd motion and mesh-free simulation. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. (2021) 31: 1277-1295.
[2]	G. Albi, G. Bertaglia, W. Boscheri, G. Dimarco, L. Pareschi, G. Toscani and M. Zanella, Kinetic modelling of epidemic dynamics: Social contacts, control with uncertain data, and multiscale spatial dynamics, in press in Predicting Pandemics in a Globally Connected World, Springer-Nature, (2022).
[3]	G. Albi, L. Pareschi and M. Zanella, Control with uncertain data of socially structured compartmental epidemic models, J. Math. Biol., 82 (2021), 41pp.
[4]	Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty. Math. Biosci. Eng. (2021) 18: 7161-7190.
[5]	E. Barbera, G. Consolo and G. Valenti, Spread of infectious diseases in a hyperbolic reaction-diffusion susceptible-infected-removed model, Phys. Rev. E, 88 (2013), 13pp.
[6]	A multiscale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. (2020) 30: 1591-1651.
[7]	Spatial spread of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy using multiscale kinetic transport equations with uncertainty. Math. Biosci. Eng. (2021) 18: 7028-7059.
[8]	G. Bertaglia, V. Caleffi, L. Pareschi and A. Valiani, Uncertainty quantification of viscoelastic parameters in arterial hemodynamics with the a-FSI blood flow model, J. Comput. Phys., 430 (2021), 20pp.
[9]	Hyperbolic compartmental models for epidemic spread on networks with uncertain data: Application to the emergence of COVID-19 in Italy. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. (2021) 31: 2495-2531.
[10]	Hyperbolic models for the spread of epidemics on networks: Kinetic description and numerical methods. ESAIM Math. Model. Numer. Anal. (2021) 55: 381-407.
[11]	S. Boscarino, L. Pareschi and G. Russo, Implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta schemes for hyperbolic systems and kinetic equations in the diffusion limit, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 35 (2013), A22–A51.
[12]	A unified IMEX Runge-Kutta approach for hyperbolic systems with multiscale relaxation. SIAM J. Numer. Anal. (2017) 55: 2085-2109.
[13]	Modeling and simulating the spatial spread of an epidemic through multiscale kinetic transport equations. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. (2021) 31: 1059-1097.
[14]	B. Buonomo and R. Della Marca, Effects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: The case of Italy, R. Soc. Open Sci., 7 (2020).
[15]	A generalization of the Kermack-McKendrick deterministic epidemic model. Math. Biosci. (1978) 42: 43-61.
[16]	R. M. Colombo, M. Garavello, F. Marcellini and E. Rossi, An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic, J. Math. Ind., 10 (2020), 20pp.
[17]	G. Dimarco, L. Liu, L. Pareschi and X. Zhu, Multi-fidelity methods for uncertainty propagation in kinetic equations, preprint, arXiv: 2112.00932.
[18]	Multi-scale control variate methods for uncertainty quantification in kinetic equations. J. Comput. Phys. (2019) 388: 63-89.
[19]	Multiscale variance reduction methods based on multiple control variates for kinetic equations with uncertainties. Multiscale Model. Simul. (2020) 18: 351-382.
[20]	Numerical methods for kinetic equations. Acta Numer. (2014) 23: 369-520.
[21]	G. Dimarco, B. Perthame, G. Toscani and M. Zanella, Kinetic models for epidemic dynamics with social heterogeneity, J. Math. Biol., 83 (2021), 32pp.
[22]	E. Franco, A feedback SIR (fSIR) model highlights advantages and limitations of infection-based social distancing, preprint, arXiv: 2004.13216.
[23]	Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures. Proceed. Nat. Acad. Sci. (2020) 117: 10484-10491.
[24]	The convergence of numerical transfer schemes in diffusive regimes. I. Discrete-ordinate method. SIAM J. Numer. Anal. (1999) 36: 1333-1369.
[25]	The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev. (2000) 42: 599-653.
[26]	T. Hillen and A. Swan, The diffusion limit of transport equations in biology, in Mathematical Models and Methods for Living Systems, Lecture Notes in Math., 2167, Fond. CIME/CIME Found. Subser., Springer, Cham, 2016, 73–129.
[27]	S. Jin, H. Lu and L. Pareschi, Efficient stochastic asymptotic-preserving implicit-explicit methods for transport equations with diffusive scalings and random inputs, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 40 (2018), A671–A696.
[28]	Uniformly accurate diffusive relaxation schemes for multiscale transport equations. SIAM J. Numer. Anal. (2000) 38: 913-936.
[29]	Non-linear incidence and stability of infectious disease models. Math. Med. Bio. J. IMA (2005) 22: 113-128.
[30]	L. Liu, L. Pareschi and X. Zhu, A bi-fidelity stochastic collocation method for transport equations with diffusive scaling and multi-dimensional random inputs, preprint, arXiv: 2107.09250.
[31]	L. Liu and X. Zhu, A bi-fidelity method for the multiscale Boltzmann equation with random parameters, J. Comput. Phys., 402 (2020), 23pp.
[32]	A viral load-based model for epidemic spread on spatial networks. Math. Biosci. Eng. (2021) 18: 5635-5663.
[33]	C. Lu and X. Zhu, Bifidelity data-assisted neural networks in nonintrusive reduced-order modeling, J. Sci. Comput., 87 (2021), 30pp.
[34]	Spatial spread of epidemic diseases in geographical settings: Seasonal influenza epidemics in Puerto Rico. Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B (2020) 25: 2185-2202.
[35]	A. Narayan, C. Gittelson and D. Xiu, A stochastic collocation algorithm with multifidelity models, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 36 (2014), A495–A521.
[36]	M. Peirlinck, K. Linka, F. Sahli Costabal, J. Bhattacharya, E. Bendavid, J. P. A. Ioannidis and E. Kuhl, Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19, Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg., 372 (2020), 22pp.
[37]	A kinetic model for epidemic spread. Math. Mech. Complex Syst. (2020) 8: 249-260.
[38]	F. Riccardo, M. Ajelli, X. D. Andrianou, A. Bella and M. Del Manso, et al., Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020, Euro Surveill., 25 (2020).
[39]	L. Roques, O. Bonnefon, V. Baudrot, S. Soubeyrand and H. Berestycki, A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation, R. Soc. Open Sci., 7 (2020).
[40]	Pattern formation of an epidemic model with diffusion. Nonlinear Dynam. (2012) 69: 1097-1104.
[41]	B. Tang, X. Wang, Q. Li, N. L. Bragazzi, S. Tang, Y. Xiao and J. Wu, Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, J. Clin. Med., 9 (2020).
[42]	A. Viguerie, G. Lorenzo, F. Auricchio, D. Baroli and T. J. R. Hughes, et al., Simulating the spread of COVID-19 via a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion, Appl. Math. Lett., 111 (2021), 9pp.
[43]	Diffusion-reaction compartmental models formulated in a continuum mechanics framework: Application to COVID-19, mathematical analysis, and numerical study. Comput. Mech. (2020) 66: 1131-1152.
[44]	J. Wang, F. Xie and T. Kuniya, Analysis of a reaction-diffusion cholera epidemic model in a spatially heterogeneous environment, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul., 80 (2020), 20pp.
[45]	A reaction-diffusion model for a deterministic diffusion epidemic. J. Math. Anal. Appl. (1981) 84: 150-161.
[46]	(2010) Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations. A Spectral Method Approach. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
[47]	Multi-fidelity stochastic collocation method for computation of statistical moments. J. Comput. Phys. (2017) 341: 386-396.
[48]	Computational aspects of stochastic collocation with multifidelity models. SIAM/ASA J. Uncertain. Quantif. (2014) 2: 444-463.

This article has been cited by:

1.	E. M. Kazin, L. A. Varich, O. L. Tarasova, O. N. Chetverik, N. N. Koshko, L. V. Arlasheva, N. V. Nemolochnaya, Comprehensive Psycho-Physiological Approach to the Assessment of Adaptive Capacity of Teenage Schoolchildren with Different Types of Vegetative Regulation, 2020, 22, 2078-8983, 444, 10.21603/2078-8975-2020-22-2-444-454
2.	L. A. Varich, E. M. Kazin, N. V. Nemolochnaya, O. L. Tarasova, A. V. Bedareva, I. L. Vasilchenko, Age, Gender, and Typological Features of Vegetative, Hormonal, and Immune Status of Older Adolescents, 2020, 46, 0362-1197, 513, 10.1134/S0362119720040131
3.	Lidiya Aleksandrovna Varich, Nina Vladimirovna Nemolochnaya, PECULIARITIES ANXIETY MANIFESTATION IN ADOLESCENTS DEPENDING ON THE VEGETATIVE REGULATION TYPE, 2022, 7, 2712-9683, 7, 10.52013/2712-9683-27-1-2
4.	Nina Nemolochnaya, Neurocognitive Predictors of Academic Performance in a Residential Educational Institution, 2024, 8, 2542-1840, 437, 10.21603/2542-1840-2024-8-4-437-444
5.	Lidiya Aleksandrovna Varich, Alexander Ivanovich Fedorov, Nina Vladimirovna Nemolochnaya, Nina Gennadyevna Blinova, Correlation between psychophysiological characteristics and a cortizole level in boarding school adolescents, 2018, 8, 22263365, 230, 10.15293/2226-3365.1805.14

Reader Comments

Your name:*

Email:*
© 2022 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)