Research article

Stock volatility as an anomalous diffusion process

  • Received: 30 September 2024 Revised: 24 November 2024 Accepted: 02 December 2024 Published: 16 December 2024
  • MSC : 91G80, 60J60, 68T07

  • Anomalous diffusion (AD) describes transport phenomena where the mean-square displacement (MSD) of a particle does not scale linearly with time, deviating from classical diffusion. This behavior, often linked to non-equilibrium phenomena, sheds light on the underlying mechanisms in various systems, including biological and financial domains.

    Integrating insights from anomalous diffusion into financial analysis could significantly improve our understanding of market behaviors, similar to their impacts on biological systems. In financial markets, accurately estimating asset volatility—whether historical or implied—is vital for investors.

    We introduce a novel methodology to estimate the volatility of stocks and similar assets, combining anomalous diffusion principles with machine learning. Our architecture combines convolutional and recurrent neural networks (bidirectional long short-term memory units). Our model computes the diffusion exponent of a financial time series to measure its volatility and it categorizes market movements into five diffusion models: annealed transit time motion (ATTM), continuous time random walk (CTRW), fractional Brownian motion (FBM), Lévy walk (LW), and scaled Brownian motion (SBM).

    Our findings suggest that the diffusion exponent derived from anomalous diffusion processes provides insightful and novel perspectives on stock market volatility. By differentiating between subdiffusion, superdiffusion, and normal diffusion, our methodology offers a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics than traditional volatility metrics.

    Citation: Rubén V. Arévalo, J. Alberto Conejero, Òscar Garibo-i-Orts, Alfred Peris. Stock volatility as an anomalous diffusion process[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2024, 9(12): 34947-34965. doi: 10.3934/math.20241663

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  • Anomalous diffusion (AD) describes transport phenomena where the mean-square displacement (MSD) of a particle does not scale linearly with time, deviating from classical diffusion. This behavior, often linked to non-equilibrium phenomena, sheds light on the underlying mechanisms in various systems, including biological and financial domains.

    Integrating insights from anomalous diffusion into financial analysis could significantly improve our understanding of market behaviors, similar to their impacts on biological systems. In financial markets, accurately estimating asset volatility—whether historical or implied—is vital for investors.

    We introduce a novel methodology to estimate the volatility of stocks and similar assets, combining anomalous diffusion principles with machine learning. Our architecture combines convolutional and recurrent neural networks (bidirectional long short-term memory units). Our model computes the diffusion exponent of a financial time series to measure its volatility and it categorizes market movements into five diffusion models: annealed transit time motion (ATTM), continuous time random walk (CTRW), fractional Brownian motion (FBM), Lévy walk (LW), and scaled Brownian motion (SBM).

    Our findings suggest that the diffusion exponent derived from anomalous diffusion processes provides insightful and novel perspectives on stock market volatility. By differentiating between subdiffusion, superdiffusion, and normal diffusion, our methodology offers a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics than traditional volatility metrics.



    It is with admiration that we share with you our publication data for the 2022 calendar year for the AIMS Medical Science Journal. It was another successful year with the highest number of publication submissions to date over the past three years. Our depth and breadth of publications spanned multiple basic and clinical science disciplines that originated from talented authors across the globe. We look forward to an exciting year ahead and welcome the opportunity to review original manuscripts for consideration for publication in the journal. Our goals are to provide a forum of high-quality manuscripts that can positively impact the expansion of scientific knowledge and advance the health of our population.

    Below is a graphic depiction of the manuscript submission and publication data for the journal for the past three years (Figure 1). There are slightly more submissions that were received in 2022 than in 2021, and the number of accepted and published manuscripts remain stable for the past three years. Our hope is increasing the footprint of quality manuscripts submitted to the journal that will translate into an increased number of high-quality publications for the upcoming year.

    Figure 1.  Manuscript statistics from 2020 to 2022.

    2022 manuscripts status:

    Publications: 28

    Reject rate: 71%

    Publication time (from submission to online): 109 days

    The geographic distribution of the corresponding authors of the published manuscripts are depicted below (Figure 2). We are honored to attract authors from around the world who chose to submit their research to the journal for publication (USA, Canada, Nigeria, Japan, etc.). Of note the majority of publications originate from authors based in the United States representing 39% of the publications followed by Canada and Nigeria standing at 11% each.

    Table 1 depicts the type of manuscripts published. A total of 28 articles were published in 2022, of which, the majority were research based, 12 (43%) followed by reviews, 10 (36%).

    Table 1.  Published articles type.
    Article type Number Percent
    Research article 12 43%
    Review 10 36%
    Others 6 21%
    Total 28

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    Figure 2.  Corresponding authors distribution.

    Table 2 depicts the top 10 articles with the highest views, published in 2022. A focus of these top 10 articles was: Fall Risks, Monoclonal Antibody development and COVID-19.

    Table 2.  The top 10 articles with the highest views, published in 2022.
    Title Corresponding author Views
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    AIMS Medical Science Journal has 94 members, representing 26 countries. Thirty three percent of the members are from the United States, and other members represent Italy, France, and several other countries (Figure 3). We want to particularly acknowledge our editors: Kelly Pagidas (Editor-in-Chief), Belgüzar Kara, Gulshan Sunavala-Dossabhoy, Gwendolyn Quinn, Panayota Mitrou, Kimberly Udlis (retired), Mai Alzamel, Yi-Jang Lee, Sreekumar Othumpangat, Ji Hyun Kim, Athanasios Alexiou, Robert Striker, Andrei Kelarev, Casey Peiris, Patrick Legembre, Ramin Ataee, Louis Ragolia, Bogdan Borz, Robert Kratzke, Maria Fiorillo, Lars Malmström, Giuliana Banche, Jean-Marie Exbrayat and Elias El-Habr. Importantly, a special thank you to all the Editorial Board members, reviewers and in-house editors, and staff for their dedication, commitment, and unrelenting hard work throughout the year. We hope to attract additional scholars that will be able to join our team for the upcoming year.

    Figure 3.  Editorial board members distribution.


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