Research article Special Issues

Transient prophylaxis and multiple epidemic waves

  • Received: 06 January 2021 Revised: 21 May 2021 Accepted: 06 October 2021 Published: 10 January 2022
  • MSC : 91D10, 92D30

  • Public opinion and opinion dynamics can have a strong effect on the transmission rate of an infectious disease for which there is no vaccine. The coupling of disease and opinion dynamics however, creates a dynamical system that is complex and poorly understood. We present a simple model in which susceptible groups adopt or give up prophylactic behaviour in accordance with the influence related to pro- and con-prophylactic communication. This influence varies with disease prevalence. We observe how the speed of the opinion dynamics affects the total size and peak size of the epidemic. We find that more reactive populations will experience a lower peak epidemic size, but possibly a larger final size and more epidemic waves, and that an increase in polarization results in a larger epidemic.

    Citation: Rebecca C. Tyson, Noah D. Marshall, Bert O. Baumgaertner. Transient prophylaxis and multiple epidemic waves[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2022, 7(4): 5616-5633. doi: 10.3934/math.2022311

    Related Papers:

  • Public opinion and opinion dynamics can have a strong effect on the transmission rate of an infectious disease for which there is no vaccine. The coupling of disease and opinion dynamics however, creates a dynamical system that is complex and poorly understood. We present a simple model in which susceptible groups adopt or give up prophylactic behaviour in accordance with the influence related to pro- and con-prophylactic communication. This influence varies with disease prevalence. We observe how the speed of the opinion dynamics affects the total size and peak size of the epidemic. We find that more reactive populations will experience a lower peak epidemic size, but possibly a larger final size and more epidemic waves, and that an increase in polarization results in a larger epidemic.



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