In this paper, we examined the optimal investment strategy in green technology for a monopolist manufacturer under a cap-and-trade mechanism, incorporating demand inertia and market uncertainty. Using a continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming framework, we modeled green technology investment as an irreversible singular control process, with demand following a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Through singular control analysis and free boundary theory, we derived a state-dependent investment threshold that revealed the optimal strategy as sequential rather than a one-off decision. Key findings showed that manufacturers delay investment until carbon emission pressures exceed a critical threshold, emphasizing the "option value of waiting". Numerical simulations, calibrated with data from an electric vehicle manufacturer and China's carbon market, identified factors such as consumer green awareness, carbon price, and emission reduction efficiency as accelerators of investment, while high costs and demand volatility cause delays. We contribute by (1) introducing a dynamic investment threshold strategy for multi-period decisions under uncertainty, (2) quantifying the option value of waiting, and (3) providing actionable insights for policymakers and managers on carbon market design and green technology investment planning.
Citation: Fanyi Peng, Ruoying Shi, Zhipeng Zhang, Shuhua Zhang. The irreversible green technology investment strategy of manufacturers under the Cap-and-Trade mechanism[J]. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization, 2026, 22(1): 100-147. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2026005
In this paper, we examined the optimal investment strategy in green technology for a monopolist manufacturer under a cap-and-trade mechanism, incorporating demand inertia and market uncertainty. Using a continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming framework, we modeled green technology investment as an irreversible singular control process, with demand following a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Through singular control analysis and free boundary theory, we derived a state-dependent investment threshold that revealed the optimal strategy as sequential rather than a one-off decision. Key findings showed that manufacturers delay investment until carbon emission pressures exceed a critical threshold, emphasizing the "option value of waiting". Numerical simulations, calibrated with data from an electric vehicle manufacturer and China's carbon market, identified factors such as consumer green awareness, carbon price, and emission reduction efficiency as accelerators of investment, while high costs and demand volatility cause delays. We contribute by (1) introducing a dynamic investment threshold strategy for multi-period decisions under uncertainty, (2) quantifying the option value of waiting, and (3) providing actionable insights for policymakers and managers on carbon market design and green technology investment planning.
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Fanyi Peng, Ruoying Shi, Zhipeng Zhang, Shuhua Zhang. The irreversible green technology investment strategy of manufacturers under the Cap-and-Trade mechanism[J]. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization, 2026, 22(1): 100-147. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2026005
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