
The accurate estimation of time delays is crucial in traffic congestion analysis, as this information can be used to address fundamental questions regarding the origin and propagation of traffic congestion. However, the exact measurement of time delays during congestion remains a challenge owing to the complex propagation process between roads and high uncertainty regarding future behavior. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel time delay estimation method for the propagation of traffic congestion due to accidents using lag-specific transfer entropy (TE). The proposed method adopts Markov bootstrap techniques to quantify uncertainty in the time delay estimator. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first to estimate time delays based on causal relationships between adjacent roads. We validated the method's efficacy using simulated data, as well as real user trajectory data obtained from a major GPS navigation system in South Korea.
Citation: YongKyung Oh, JiIn Kwak, Sungil Kim. Time delay estimation of traffic congestion propagation due to accidents based on statistical causality[J]. Electronic Research Archive, 2023, 31(2): 691-707. doi: 10.3934/era.2023034
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The accurate estimation of time delays is crucial in traffic congestion analysis, as this information can be used to address fundamental questions regarding the origin and propagation of traffic congestion. However, the exact measurement of time delays during congestion remains a challenge owing to the complex propagation process between roads and high uncertainty regarding future behavior. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel time delay estimation method for the propagation of traffic congestion due to accidents using lag-specific transfer entropy (TE). The proposed method adopts Markov bootstrap techniques to quantify uncertainty in the time delay estimator. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first to estimate time delays based on causal relationships between adjacent roads. We validated the method's efficacy using simulated data, as well as real user trajectory data obtained from a major GPS navigation system in South Korea.
We consider the Frenkel-Kontorova models with quasi-periodic potentials. One may refer to [6] for several physical interpretations of such models.
In order to give a unified picture of the known results, let's take the one-dimensional quasi-crystals case for example (see [11] for more advanced studies on general quasi-crystals). Frenkel-Kontorova models describe the dislocations of particles deposited over a substratum given by the quasi-crystals (see [6]). That is, we model the position of the
S((xi)i∈Z):=∑i∈Z[12(xi−xi+1)2+V(xi)]. |
In this article, we are concerned with the case that the potential function
The aperiodicity will bring us difficulties such as loss of compactness and less results are known for the quasi-periodic case than for the periodic one. We now recall the existing results in the literature. In [3,16], under the assumptions that the potential function is large enough, the authors use the idea of the anti-integrable limits to obtain multiple equilibria with any prescribed rotation number or without any rotation numbers. This approach also works for higher dimensional generalization of the quasi-periodic Frenkel-Kontorova model but requires that the corresponding system is far away from the integrable case.
In another direction, [7] considers the one-dimensional Fibonacci quasi-crystals without extra assumption on whether the system is integrable or not, and mainly uses topological methods to establish the existence of the minimal configurations with any given rotation number. Here it is rather essential that the configuration space is one dimension. Note that the minimal configuration is a special equilibrium with extra properties. One may refer to [8] for other methods to search minimal configurations.
In this article, we construct an explicit potential
In order to give a simple and self-contained proof, we fix at the beginning a positive number
Theorem 1.1. For the Frenkel-Kontorova model with the potential
(i)
(ii) there exists a non-minimal equilibrium configuration with the rotation number
Remark 1.
But so far, analogues of the above result in higher dimensions are not yet known. We hope to get some inspiration from the specific example and corresponding numerical simulations. For numerical computations of minimal configurations, one may refer to [2,15,5].
Organization of the article. In Section 2, we introduce some necessary fundamentals about quasi-crystals and the variational problem for the Frenkel-Kontorova models. In particular, we give an example of the quasi-crystals, the Fibonacci chain, and an example of the Frenkel-Kontorova models with quasi-periodic potentials.
Section 3 is devoted to the proof of Theorem 1.1. Numerical simulations searching for equilibrium configurations are provided here.
In fact, in Section 3.1, we obtain the minimal configurations for the Frenkel-Kontorova models on one-dimensional Fibonacci quasi-crystals with slight modifications compared with those in [7]. Thus we finish the proof of item (i) in Theorem 1.1. Of course, the KAM circles are minimizers.
We apply the idea of anti-integrable limits to prove the existence of equilibrium configurations of type
We recall several standard notions of quasi-crystals in Section 2.1. In Section 2.2, we introduce the minimal and equilibrium configurations of the variational problem for the Frenkel-Kontorova models. Particularly, in Section 2.3, we state the definition of pattern equivariant potential which we take as the potential in the variational problem, and finally an example is provided.
In the
A point set
Definition 2.1 (Delone sets). A point set
A cluster of the point set
Definition 2.2 (finite local complexity). A point set
Definition 2.3 (repetitive). A point set
Definition 2.4 (non-periodic). A point set
Definition 2.5 (quasi-crystal). A point set
Let
Card{t∈Br(a)∣(−t+Λ)∩K=P}λ(Br(a)). |
If the above quantity converges as
In this section, we will provide the Fibonacci chain as an example of one-dimensional quasi-crystals whose construction will be divided into the following three steps.
Step 1. Construct a one-sided Fibonacci word. Consider a two-letter alphabet
ρ:a↦abb↦a |
and define a sequence
u(i+1)=ρ(u(i))∀i≥1 with u(1)=a. | (1) |
The iterating process can be illustrated as follows:
aρ⟼abρ⟼abaρ⟼abaabρ⟼abaababaρ⟼abaababaabaabρ⟼⋯. |
It can be directly derived from the definition by induction that
u(i+2)=u(i+1)u(i) for all i≥1. | (2) |
Thus the sequence
u:=u0u1u2⋯:=abaababaabaab⋯ |
as
Remark 2. Notice that the length of
fi=τi+1−(1−τ)i+1√5. | (3) |
Furthermore, the number of times the letter
Step 2. Construct a two-sided Fibonacci word. Define a sequence
a|aρ⟼ab_|abρ⟼aba_|abaρ⟼abaab_|abaabρ⟼abaababa_|abaababaρ⟼abaababaabaab_|abaababaabaabρ⟼⋯ |
where the vertical line indicates the reference point. In fact, we can get palindromes by eliminating the last two letters of
w(i)={b−1a−1~u(i)ba_|u(i) if i is odd, a−1b−1~u(i)ab_|u(i) if i is even, |
for all
˜uba_|u:=⋯abaababaabaababaababa_|abaababaabaababaababa⋯˜uab_|u:=⋯abaababaabaababaabaab_|abaababaabaababaababa⋯. |
That is, the two bi-infinite words are fixed points of
w:=⋯w−3w−2w−1|w0w1w2w3⋯:=˜uba_|u=⋯ababa_|abaab⋯ |
where
Step 3. Obtain a point set by the bi-infinite word as a quasi-crystal. Let
|x1x2|=|x1|+|x2| for any two finite words x1 and x2, |
with
Then we can recursively define a bi-infinite sequence
Remark 3. Our discussion will concern three kinds of words - geometric words, symbolic words and interval words. We will use the following example to illustrate the relationship among these three kinds of words. The geometric word
Lemma 2.6. The Fibonacci chain
Proof. We will prove the lemma by checking the definition of quasi-crystals.
(i). We will first show that
(ii). Obviously,
(iii). If
limi→+∞ the number of letter a in u(i) the length of u(i)=limi→+∞fi−1fi=1τ |
and is irrational, which is a contradiction.
In conclusion, we have constructed the Fibonacci quasi-crystal
We consider the space
Given a function
H(xj,…,xk):=k−1∑i=jH(xi,xi+1). |
We say that the segment
H(xj,…,xk)≤H(x∗j,…,x∗k) |
for all
Definition 2.7 (minimal configuration). A configuration
Definition 2.8 [stationary configuration] If
∂2H(xi−1,xi)+∂1H(xi,xi+1)=0 for all i∈Z. | (4) |
Obviously, each minimal configuration is a stationary configuration.
In this article, we take the function
H(ξ,η)=12(ξ−η)2+V(ξ). | (5) |
Then (4) becomes
2xi−xi−1−xi+1+V′(xi)=0 for all i∈Z. |
In order to further describe the configurations, we introduce the following two notions.
Definition 2.9 (rotation number). Let
limi→±∞xii=ρ. |
Definition 2.10 (type-
supi∈Z|xi−h(i)|<∞. |
It is easy to see that the notion of the type-
In this section, we aim to build some special equivariant potential generated by the Fibonacci quasi-crystal. We will first introduce the following notion of "equivariant" in our settings.
Definition 2.11 For any point set
(Λ−x)∩BR(0)=(Λ−y)∩BR(0) |
then
Given
α(x):=max{y∈S|y≤x},β(x):=min{y∈S|y>x}. |
It is easy to see that both
As is explained in Remark 3, for all
|u(i)|=fi−1τ+(fi−fi−1)=τi for all i∈Z+, | (6) |
and so we get either
0≤x<τ or τn1≤x<τn1+1 for some n1∈Z+. |
Let us consider the later case, and we have
0≤x−τn1<τ or τn2≤x−τn1<τn2+1 for some n2∈Z+. |
Hence, we could repeat the above procedure finitely many times and obtain either (i)
0≤x−τn1−τn2−⋯−τnr<τ. | (7) |
This means that
Based on the discussion above, we could obtain the following facts.
Lemma 2.12. If
β(x)={α(x)+1,if nr=1α(x)+τ,otherwise,where α(x)={0,if 0≤x<ττn1+τn1+⋯+τnr,if x≥τ. |
Proof. One could immediately have the expression of
Case 1.: If
Case 2.: If
Notice that we have defined
α(x)={−β(−x), if −τ2≤x<0−β(−x−τ2)−τ2, if x<−τ2 and β(x)={−α(−x), if −τ2≤x<0−α(−x−τ2)−τ2, if x<−τ2. |
Let
ζ(x)={6427(3|x|−1)2(96|x|−11),ifx∈(−13,−14)∪(14,13),−64x2+16027,ifx∈[−14,14],0,otherwise. |
It is easy to check that
V(x)={ζ(x−α(x)), if 2x≤α(x)+β(x),ζ(x−β(x)), if 2x>α(x)+β(x). | (8) |
Lemma 2.13. The potential
Proof. Fix
(S−x)∩B1(0)=(S−y)∩B1(0), |
then
S∩B1(x)−x=S∩B1(y)−y. |
If
If
Hence we always have
Lemma 2.14. The potential
Proof. The potential
So far, we have constructed the interaction function
Our goal in this section is to present the one-dimensional Fibonacci Frenkel-Kontorova model, i.e. the interaction function
In this section, we aim to find a minimal configuration with rotation number
For any
Let
ΩP,U:={T∈S+R∣P−u is a patch in T for some u∈U}. |
In particular, we denote
For any integer
cl:=S∩[−τ2l,τ2l],εl,1:=S∩[−τ2l,τ2l+2],εl,2:=S∩[τ2l−1,2τ2l+2]−τ2l+1. |
We also use the corresponding symbolic words to represent these patches, for example:
c1=ba|ab,ε1,1=ba|abaab,ε1,2=ba|ababaab; |
c2=ababa|abaab,ε2,1=ababa|abaababaabaab,ε2,2=ababa|abaababaababaabaab. |
Let
Remark 4. The definitions of patches
Ll:Cl→RT↦inf{t>0∣T−t∈Cl}. |
The patches translated from
For any integer
Sl:={x∈R∣P−x=cl for some patches P in S}. |
For any
Lemma 3.1. For each
(i)
(ii)
Proof. (1). Firstly, we show that the range of
ρ2(S⋂[−τ2l,τ2l])=S⋂[−τ2l×τ2,τ2l×τ2]=S⋂[−τ2(l+1),τ2(l+1)], |
that is,
[(0,τ3)⋃(τ3,τ4)⋃(τ4,+∞)]⋂{t>0∣T∈Cl,T−t∈Cl and T−s∉Cl∀s∈(0,t)}=∅. |
In fact, for any
C1=(L1)−1(τ3)⊔(L1)−1(τ4)=E1,1⊔E1,2. |
Since
(2). Recall the above definition of
(S−αl(x))∩[−τ2l,τ2l+2]=εl,1. |
If
(S−αl(x))∩[−τ2l,τ2l+2+τ2l]=εl,2. |
For any
S+R⊂Ωεl,1,[0,τ2l+1)∪Ωεl,2,[0,τ2l+2). |
The proof of the opposite inclusion is obvious and so we complete the proof of (ii).
If
A1=aba,B1=ababa,A2=abaababa,B2=abaababaababa. |
Notice that
M:=(1112):=(the number of Al in Al+1the number of Bl in Al+1the number of Al in Bl+1the number of Bl in Bl+1) |
then
Mn=1√5(τ−2n+1+τ2n−1−τ−2n+τ2n−τ−2n+τ2nτ−2n−1+τ2n+1)=(the number of Al in Al+nthe number of Bl in Al+nthe number of Al in Bl+nthe number of Bl in Bl+n). |
Consider the two limits
limn→∞the number of Al in Al+n|Al+n|=limn→∞the number of Al in Bl+n|Bl+n|=1√5τ2l+2, |
where
For any integer
For any
And the projection
πl(x)={ml,1(x−αl(x)), if βl(x)−αl(x)=τ2l+1;ml,2(x−αl(x)), if βl(x)−αl(x)=τ2l+2. |
On the one hand, since
Now we construct the minimal configuration.
Step 1. Fix
ˆH(R1,b1,i,R1)=ˆH(R1,b1,i)+ˆH(b1,i,R1)=12d(R1,b1,i)2+ˆV(R1)+12d(b1,i,R1)2+ˆV(b1,i)=12d(R1,b1,i)2+ˆV(R1)+12(τ2+i−d(R1,b1,i))2+ˆV(b1,i)=d(R1,b1,i)2−τ2+id(R1,b1,i)+V(d(R1,b1,i))+τ4+2i/2+V(0). |
One can easily see that
(θ1,n)n∈Z=(π1)−1({R1,b∗1,1,b∗1,2}). |
This is because the pre-image of
Step 2. For any
(Nl+1,1Nl+1,2)=(1112)(Nl,1Nl,2),with N1,1=N1,2:=2. |
Note that
We now extend
Similarly as before, since pre-image
Step 3. By the two steps above we get a sequence of configurations
Proposition 1 ([4]). Let
S∩B1(θ)+uk=S∩B1(θ+uk) |
the cardinality
Corollary 1. For each
|Card(u∩I1)−Card(u∩I2)|≤2 |
(resp.
|Card((up,…,uq)∩I1)−Card((up,…,uq)∩I2)|≤2). |
Lemma 3.2. For each
Proof. Let
nl,1τ2l+1+nl,2τ2l+2≤θl,n−θl,0≤nl,1τ2l+1+nl,2τ2l+2+2τ2l+2 |
and
nl,1Nl,1+nl,2Nl,2≤n≤nl,1Nl,1+nl,2Nl,2+2Nl,2. |
Thus
nl,1τ2l+1+nl,2τ2l+2nl,1Nl,1+nl,2Nl,2+2Nl,2≤θl,nn≤nl,1τ2l+1+nl,2τ2l+2+2τ2l+2nl,1Nl,1+nl,2Nl,2. |
Then the rotation number
limn→+∞nl,1τ2l+1+nl,2τ2l+2nl,1Nl,1+nl,2Nl,2. |
When
nl,inl,1τ2l+1+nl,2τ2l+2 |
goes to the absolute frequency of
ρl=1Freq0(Al)Nl,1+Freq0(Bl)Nl,2=3τ+12. |
Lemma 3.3. There exists
θl,n+1−θl,n≤M. |
Proof. Let
θl(m),n(m)+1−θl(m),n(m)>M(m). |
Then there exists minimal segment
(θl(m),n1,…,θl(m),n(m),θl(m),n(m)+1,…,θl(m),n2) |
such that
γm,i⊂πm([θl(m),n(m),θl(m),n(m)+1]) for some i. |
Let
Bm−1⊂πm−1([θl(m),n(m),θl(m),n(m)+1]). |
By Corollary 1, for each connected component
|Card(θl(m)∩Im−1,i)|≤2. |
Since
(3τ+1)/2=limn→+∞θl(m),nn≥limn→+∞nl(m),1τ2m−1+nl(m),2τ2m2(nl(m),1+1)+2(nl(m),2+1)=τ2m−1limn→+∞nl(m),1+τnl(m),22nl(m),1+2nl(m),2+4. |
Notice that
By Lemma 3.3, for each
Theorem 3.4. The configuration
Proof. It is easy to show that
We just need to show its rotation number is
n∞,l,1τ2l+1+n∞,l,2τ2l+2≤θ∞,n−θ∞,0≤n∞,l,1τ2l+1+n∞,l,2τ2l+2+2τ2l+2 |
and by Corollary 1, we have
n∞,l,1(Nl,1−2)+n∞,l,2(Nl,2−2)≤n≤n∞,l,1(Nl,1+2)+n∞,l,2(Nl,2+2)+2(Nl,2+2). |
Thus
n∞,l,1τ2l+1+n∞,l,2τ2l+2n∞,l,1(Nl,1+2)+n∞,l,2(Nl,2+2)+2(Nl,2+2)≤θ∞,nn≤n∞,l,1τ2l+1+n∞,l,2τ2l+2+2τ2l+2n∞,l,1(Nl,1−2)+n∞,l,2(Nl,2−2). |
When
n∞,l,in∞,l,1Nl,1+n∞,l,2Nl,2 |
goes to the absolute frequency of
1Freq0(Al)(Nl,1+2)+Freq0(Bl)(Nl,2+2)≤ρ∞≤1Freq0(Al)(Nl,1−2)+Freq0(Bl)(Nl,2−2). |
Let
ρ∞=3τ+12. |
In this section, we will first find an equilibrium configuration
−(Δu)i+V′(ui)=0, | (9) |
where
To start with, let
h(i)=3τ+12i |
and let
g(i)=argminx∈S|x−h(i)|={α∘h(i) if 2h(i)≤α∘h(i)+β∘h(i)β∘h(i) if 2h(i)>α∘h(i)+β∘h(i). |
Since the distance between any pair of adjacent points in
Π:={u:|ui−g(i)|≤τ62 for all i∈Z} |
and a mapping
Φ:Π→Π,u↦(−1128(Δu)i+g(i))i∈Z. |
Notice that for all
|(Δu)i|≤|(Δu)i−(Δg)i|+|(Δg)i|≤4supi∈Z|ui−g(i)|+2τ≤64τ31. |
Thus, we get
|Φ(u)i−Φ(u′)i|=1128|(Δu)i−(Δu′)i|≤132supi∈Z|ui−u′i|. |
Hence by the contraction mapping principle,
ui=−1128(Δu)i+g(i)∀i∈Z. | (10) |
Now it only remains to show that formula (10) and (9) are equivalent. In fact, the above fixed point
In conclusion, we have obtained
Theorem 3.5. The configuration
Next, let's calculate the equilibrium configuration
αui−1+(1−2α)ui+αui+1=ai∀i∈Z. |
Let
Tei=αei−1+(1−2α)ei+αei+1,i∈Z |
where
Tn=(1−2αα0⋯00α1−2αα⋯000α1−2α⋯00⋮⋮⋮⋱⋮⋮000⋯1−2αα000⋯α1−2α)n×n, |
which is invertible by [9][Theorem 3.1]. And
u=limn→+∞T−12n+1yn, |
where
Remark 5.
h1(i)={i2, if i≥0,−i2, ifi<0. |
In this case,
The following theorem is a special case of [16][Theorem 1].
Theorem 3.6. Let
Hλ(ξ,η)=12(ξ−η)2+λV(ξ). | (11) |
Remark 6. The original paper [3] considers the notion of anti-integrable limits for the classical periodic Frenkel-Kontorova models and obtains the same types of equilibrium configurations. The authors also show the chaotic properties of these "exotic" equilibrium configurations.
Moreover, in our context, we could show that there also exist non-minimal equilibrium configurations:
Theorem 3.7. Let
To show Theorem 3.7, we just need a lemma:
Lemma 3.8. For any
Remark 7. For the function
Proof. Fix
−(Δu)i+λV′(ui)=0 | (12) |
and
Hλ(u−1,u′0)+Hλ(u′0,u1)<Hλ(u−1,u0)+Hλ(u0,u1). | (13) |
Before we give the value of
λV′(u0)=λV″(g(0))(u0−g(0))=λζ″(0)(u0−g(0)){<−4(u0−g(0)) if u0>g(0);>−4(u0−g(0)) if u0<g(0). | (14) |
Then from (12) and (14), we know that
ˉu=u0+λV′(u0)2{<−u0+2g(0) if u0>g(0);>−u0+2g(0) if u0<g(0). | (15) |
That is,
|u0−g(0)|<|ˉu−g(0)|. | (16) |
And from (15) we can see that the sign of
|ˉu−g(0)|<|ˉu−u0|. | (17) |
Now, we discuss three different cases and give the value of
Case 1.: If
12(u−1−u′0)2+12(u′0−u1)2≤12(u−1−u0)2+12(u0−u1)2. | (18) |
Since
V(u′0)<V(u0). | (19) |
Multiply both sides of the inequality (19) by
Case 2.: If
V(u′0)=0≤V(u0). | (20) |
By (17), we have
|ˉu−u′0|=|ˉu−g(0)−1/3|<|ˉu−g(0)|<|ˉu−u0|. |
Then using the monotonicity of
12(u−1−u′0)2+12(u′0−u1)2<12(u−1−u0)2+12(u0−u1)2. | (21) |
Multiply both sides of the inequality (20) by
Case 3.: If
Proof of Theorem 3.7. For any
To solve the problem of whether each
Πλ={u:|ui−g(i)|≤2max{|a|,|b|}+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|−λζ″(0)−4 for all i∈Z}, |
Φλ:Πλ→Πλ,u↦(1λζ″(0)(Δu)i+g(i))i∈Z. |
For all
|(Δu)i|≤|(Δu)i−(Δg)i|+|(Δg)i−(Δh)i|+|(Δh)i|≤4supi∈Z|ui−g(i)|+4supi∈Z|g(i)−h(i)|+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|≤4⋅2max{|a|,|b|}+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|−λζ″(0)−4+4⋅max{|a|,|b|}2+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|=−λζ″(0)⋅2max{|a|,|b|}+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|−λζ″(0)−4, |
we get
|Φλ(u)i−g(i)|=|1λζ″(0)(Δu)i|≤2max{|a|,|b|}+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|−λζ″(0)−4, |
which means that
|Φλ(u)i−Φλ(u′)i|=1−λζ″(0)|(Δu)i−(Δu′)i|≤4−λζ″(0)supi∈Z|ui−u′i|. |
Let the radius of
λ>4⋅2max{|a|,|b|}+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|+1−ζ″(0) |
Hence, let
λ1=max{λ12,4⋅2max{|a|,|b|}+supi∈Z|(Δh)i|+1−ζ″(0)}, |
and then for any
Proof of item (ii) of Theorem 1.1. By Theorem 3.5, to show the item (ii) of Theorem 1.1, it suffices to show that
In fact, by the definition of the function
The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for the valuable comments and suggestions on the manuscript. We also thank Prof. R. de la Llave for a very careful reading of the manuscript and many suggestions which helped improve a lot the presentation and exposition.
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