Financial and non-financial investments: comparative econometric analysis of the impact on economic dynamics

Oleg Sukharev; Ekaterina Voronchikhina; Oleg Sukharev; Ekaterina Voronchikhina

doi:10.3934/QFE.2020018

Quantitative Finance and Economics

2020, Volume 4, Issue 3: 382-411. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020018

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Research article

Financial and non-financial investments: comparative econometric analysis of the impact on economic dynamics

Oleg Sukharev ^{1
,
,},
Ekaterina Voronchikhina ²

1.
Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 32 Nakhimovsky prospekt, Moscow, 117218, Russia
2.
Economic faculty, Perm State National Research University, 15 Bukireva street, Perm, Russia, 614068, Russia

Received: 05 May 2020 Accepted: 01 June 2020 Published: 04 June 2020
JEL Codes: G1, N20, O47

The purpose of the study is to determine the degree of influence of investments in financial and non-financial assets on the rate of economic growth in a comparative aspect for the US, German and Russian economies. It is determined by the level of development of the financial sector, which can either support growth or slow it down. The methodology of the study is a structural analysis and an econometric approach which allows to build econometric models when the dynamics of GDP and types of investments, to the structural formula as a model to evaluate the contribution of each type of investment in economic growth. A regression analysis was used to show the relationship between financial and non—financial investments, the growth rate of the economy and the financial market bias parameter proposed in the framework of the analysis, an increase in which indicates an expansion of the financial market's influence, a decrease—a reduction in such influence. The built econometric models made it possible to give a forecast estimate of GDP dynamics in the unfolding recession of 2020–2021, when reducing financial and non-financial investments, identifying together with the application of the structural formula and the possible change in the contribution of investments to the rate of economic growth, when their own rate changes. The study also revealed a sharp increase in the financial market bias in the Russian economy compared to the United States and Germany, which significantly affects the rate of economic growth, depending on changes in financial investment. This unbalanced influence requires macroeconomic policy measures to correct the structural imbalance between financial and non-financial investments.
- financial and non-financial investments,
- economic growth,
- financial market bias,
- econometric modeling,
- comparative analysis,
- impact of financial investments
Citation: Oleg Sukharev, Ekaterina Voronchikhina. Financial and non-financial investments: comparative econometric analysis of the impact on economic dynamics[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2020, 4(3): 382-411. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020018

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Abstract

The purpose of the study is to determine the degree of influence of investments in financial and non-financial assets on the rate of economic growth in a comparative aspect for the US, German and Russian economies. It is determined by the level of development of the financial sector, which can either support growth or slow it down. The methodology of the study is a structural analysis and an econometric approach which allows to build econometric models when the dynamics of GDP and types of investments, to the structural formula as a model to evaluate the contribution of each type of investment in economic growth. A regression analysis was used to show the relationship between financial and non—financial investments, the growth rate of the economy and the financial market bias parameter proposed in the framework of the analysis, an increase in which indicates an expansion of the financial market's influence, a decrease—a reduction in such influence. The built econometric models made it possible to give a forecast estimate of GDP dynamics in the unfolding recession of 2020–2021, when reducing financial and non-financial investments, identifying together with the application of the structural formula and the possible change in the contribution of investments to the rate of economic growth, when their own rate changes. The study also revealed a sharp increase in the financial market bias in the Russian economy compared to the United States and Germany, which significantly affects the rate of economic growth, depending on changes in financial investment. This unbalanced influence requires macroeconomic policy measures to correct the structural imbalance between financial and non-financial investments.

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