Economic crisis as a consequence COVID-19 virus attack: risk and damage assessment

Oleg S. Sukharev; Oleg S. Sukharev

doi:10.3934/QFE.2020013

Quantitative Finance and Economics

2020, Volume 4, Issue 2: 274-293. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020013

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Research article Special Issues

Economic crisis as a consequence COVID-19 virus attack: risk and damage assessment

Oleg S. Sukharev ^,

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 32, Nakhimovsky prospekt, Moscow, 117218, Russian Federation

Received: 30 March 2020 Accepted: 20 April 2020 Published: 23 April 2020
JEL Codes: O11, G01, I15

The purpose of the research is to reveal the mechanism of influence of coronavirus on the economic crisis and to develop a method for assessing threats and risks. Understanding the mechanism of generating an economic crisis allows to develop methods of anti-crisis government policy. The research methodology is based on structural analysis and taxonomic approach. Their application makes it possible to distinguish activities with decreasing demand relative to initial supply, and with increasing demand, which generates deficits of goods. The results of the research at the theoretical level of analysis is the proposed method of assessing threats and risks from the spread of coronavirus, which allows the benefits of certain types of activities (pharmaceuticals and medicine), and consider the damage on other activities (tourism, transportation, education). The diagram of the ratio of benefits and losses from the spread of the virus attack allows to position different economies in different zones of the diagram, according to the reaction of a particular economy to the epidemic, with a different scale of influence. Using such a chart, estimating the expected damage and expected benefits, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy is assessed based on changes in the dynamics of investments in financial and non-financial assets. Analysis of financial and non-financial investments in some countries has led to the conclusion that the financial system that is less biased in terms of financial investment relative to the functioning of non-financial sectors is the least vulnerable in a crisis. The multiple excess of financial investments over non-financial ones for Russia creates the foundation of financial instability and recession. This is confirmed using econometric analysis and forecast. Therefore, overcoming the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 in addition to the current measures will require correcting, in particular, the structure of "financial-non-financial" investments.
Citation: Oleg S. Sukharev. Economic crisis as a consequence COVID-19 virus attack: risk and damage assessment[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2020, 4(2): 274-293. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020013

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Abstract

The purpose of the research is to reveal the mechanism of influence of coronavirus on the economic crisis and to develop a method for assessing threats and risks. Understanding the mechanism of generating an economic crisis allows to develop methods of anti-crisis government policy. The research methodology is based on structural analysis and taxonomic approach. Their application makes it possible to distinguish activities with decreasing demand relative to initial supply, and with increasing demand, which generates deficits of goods. The results of the research at the theoretical level of analysis is the proposed method of assessing threats and risks from the spread of coronavirus, which allows the benefits of certain types of activities (pharmaceuticals and medicine), and consider the damage on other activities (tourism, transportation, education). The diagram of the ratio of benefits and losses from the spread of the virus attack allows to position different economies in different zones of the diagram, according to the reaction of a particular economy to the epidemic, with a different scale of influence. Using such a chart, estimating the expected damage and expected benefits, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy is assessed based on changes in the dynamics of investments in financial and non-financial assets. Analysis of financial and non-financial investments in some countries has led to the conclusion that the financial system that is less biased in terms of financial investment relative to the functioning of non-financial sectors is the least vulnerable in a crisis. The multiple excess of financial investments over non-financial ones for Russia creates the foundation of financial instability and recession. This is confirmed using econometric analysis and forecast. Therefore, overcoming the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 in addition to the current measures will require correcting, in particular, the structure of "financial-non-financial" investments.

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