The circular economy has become increasingly important as countries seek to reduce resource dependence, improve energy efficiency, and decouple economic activity from environmental pressure. However, macro-level circular economy measurement remains fragmented, while the relationship between financial development and circular transition may differ substantially across levels of economic development. In this study, we constructed a macro-level circular economy index for 109 countries over the period 2002–2024, comprising 30 developed and 79 developing economies. Principal component analysis combined four dimensions: carbon efficiency, energy efficiency, energy transition, and material pressure. Bayesian regression was then used to examine the relationship between financial development and circular economy performance under six institutional specifications. The results revealed a substantial development gap: The mean circular economy index was 0.864 for developed countries and 0.413 for developing countries. In developed economies, the posterior coefficient of financial development ranged from 0.0017 to 0.0023, with P (β > 0) = 1.0000 across all six specifications. The corresponding approximate 95% credible intervals remained strictly positive, ranging from approximately [0.0013, 0.0021] to [0.0021, 0.0025], providing strong evidence of a stable positive relationship. In developing economies, the coefficients were substantially smaller and heterogeneous, ranging from −0.0005 to 0.0001. Most posterior intervals overlapped zero, while the political-stability specification produced a negative coefficient of −0.0005, with P (β < 0) = 1.0000 and an approximate 95% credible interval of [−0.0007, −0.0003]. These findings indicated that greater financial depth is consistently associated with stronger circular economy performance in developed economies but does not generate the same outcome in developing countries. The results highlight the importance of directing financial resources toward clean technology, renewable energy, resource efficiency, recycling, and other circular activities rather than relying on credit expansion alone.
Citation: Le Quoc Dinh, Tran Thi Kim Oanh. Financial development and the circular economy: Evidence across levels of economic development[J]. National Accounting Review, 2026, 8(3): 409-459. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2026018
The circular economy has become increasingly important as countries seek to reduce resource dependence, improve energy efficiency, and decouple economic activity from environmental pressure. However, macro-level circular economy measurement remains fragmented, while the relationship between financial development and circular transition may differ substantially across levels of economic development. In this study, we constructed a macro-level circular economy index for 109 countries over the period 2002–2024, comprising 30 developed and 79 developing economies. Principal component analysis combined four dimensions: carbon efficiency, energy efficiency, energy transition, and material pressure. Bayesian regression was then used to examine the relationship between financial development and circular economy performance under six institutional specifications. The results revealed a substantial development gap: The mean circular economy index was 0.864 for developed countries and 0.413 for developing countries. In developed economies, the posterior coefficient of financial development ranged from 0.0017 to 0.0023, with P (β > 0) = 1.0000 across all six specifications. The corresponding approximate 95% credible intervals remained strictly positive, ranging from approximately [0.0013, 0.0021] to [0.0021, 0.0025], providing strong evidence of a stable positive relationship. In developing economies, the coefficients were substantially smaller and heterogeneous, ranging from −0.0005 to 0.0001. Most posterior intervals overlapped zero, while the political-stability specification produced a negative coefficient of −0.0005, with P (β < 0) = 1.0000 and an approximate 95% credible interval of [−0.0007, −0.0003]. These findings indicated that greater financial depth is consistently associated with stronger circular economy performance in developed economies but does not generate the same outcome in developing countries. The results highlight the importance of directing financial resources toward clean technology, renewable energy, resource efficiency, recycling, and other circular activities rather than relying on credit expansion alone.
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Le Quoc Dinh, Tran Thi Kim Oanh. Financial development and the circular economy: Evidence across levels of economic development[J]. National Accounting Review, 2026, 8(3): 409-459. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2026018
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