Research article

Structural analysis of income and risk dynamics in models of economic growth

  • Received: 27 November 2019 Accepted: 14 January 2020 Published: 15 January 2020
  • JEL Codes: O4, L16, E25, G32

  • The purpose of the research is to carry out the structural analysis of income and risk dynamics when considering the problem of economic growth, to obtain and apply the structural formula to assess the contribution of GDP elements to growth rate. The methodological basis of the research consists of the theory of economic growth and structural analysis, optimization methods and computer simulation (algorithmization) models of maximizing income and minimizing the total risk of N objects of the economic system. The implementation of the two stages of the research allowed us to establish that for the Russian economy the main contribution to the growth rate in the period 2003–2018 was made by gross consumption, but not by investment spending. The result of computer simulation of optimization models—maximizing income and minimizing risk is that the solution to the problem of structural choice can be an assessment of the dynamics of income and risk at a characteristic point in which different resource allocation structures give the same combination of income and risk. However, the growth rate of income and risk in the characteristic point will certainly be different, and the most acceptable option is to choose the structure that gives a positive growth rate of income and a negative growth rate of risk. This circumstance makes a significant addition to the developed macroeconomic and structural policy measures, which should be oriented not only to some static targets, but also to the impact on the dynamics of the relevant aggregated parameters—income and risk.

    Citation: Oleg S. Sukharev. Structural analysis of income and risk dynamics in models of economic growth[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2020, 4(1): 1-18. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020001

    Related Papers:

  • The purpose of the research is to carry out the structural analysis of income and risk dynamics when considering the problem of economic growth, to obtain and apply the structural formula to assess the contribution of GDP elements to growth rate. The methodological basis of the research consists of the theory of economic growth and structural analysis, optimization methods and computer simulation (algorithmization) models of maximizing income and minimizing the total risk of N objects of the economic system. The implementation of the two stages of the research allowed us to establish that for the Russian economy the main contribution to the growth rate in the period 2003–2018 was made by gross consumption, but not by investment spending. The result of computer simulation of optimization models—maximizing income and minimizing risk is that the solution to the problem of structural choice can be an assessment of the dynamics of income and risk at a characteristic point in which different resource allocation structures give the same combination of income and risk. However, the growth rate of income and risk in the characteristic point will certainly be different, and the most acceptable option is to choose the structure that gives a positive growth rate of income and a negative growth rate of risk. This circumstance makes a significant addition to the developed macroeconomic and structural policy measures, which should be oriented not only to some static targets, but also to the impact on the dynamics of the relevant aggregated parameters—income and risk.
    加载中


    [1] Aguirre A (2017) Contracting institutions and economic growth. Rev Econ Dyn 24: 192-217. doi: 10.1016/j.red.2017.01.009
    [2] Ahmad M (2017) Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter? J Policy Model 39: 1065-1085. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.07.001
    [3] Alonso-Carrera J, Raurich X (2018) Labor mobility, structural change and economic growth. J Macroecon 56: 292-310. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.03.002
    [4] Brondino G (2019) Productivity growth and structural change in China (1995-2009): A subsystems analysis. Struct Change Econ Dyn 49: 183-191. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.09.001
    [5] Brancaccio E, Garbellini N, Giammetti R (2018) Structural labour market reforms, GDP growth and the functional distribution of income. Struct Change Econ Dyn 44: 34-45. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.09.001
    [6] Cutrini E (2019) Economic integration, structural change, and uneven development in the European Union. Struct Change Econ Dyn 50: 102-113. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.06.007
    [7] Davanzati GF (2018) Structural change driven by institutions: Thorstein Veblen revised. Struct Change Econ Dyn 45: 105-110. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.03.002
    [8] Freire C (2019) Economic diversification: A model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change. Struct Change Econ Dyn 49: 13-28. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.03.005
    [9] Gabardo FA, Pereima JB, Einloft P (2017) The incorporation of structural change into growth theory: A historical appraisal. EconomiA 18: 392-410. doi: 10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.003
    [10] Hanusch H, Chakraborty L, Khurana S (2017) Fiscal Policy Economic Growth and Innovation: An Empirical Analysis of G20 Countries. Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper, No. 883, 16.
    [11] Iamsiraroj S (2016) The foreign direct investment-economic growth nexus. Int Rev Econ Financ 42: 116-133. doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.044
    [12] North DC (1989) Institutions and economic growth: An historical introduction. World Development 17: 1319-1332. doi: 10.1016/0305-750X(89)90075-2
    [13] Pi J, Zhang P (2018) Structural change and wage inequality. Int Rev Econ Financ 58: 699-707. doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.07.010
    [14] Ravindran A, Ragsdell KM, Reklaitis GV (1983) Engineering optimization: methods and application, New York: Wiley, 681.
    [15] Romano L, Traù F (2017) The nature of industrial development and the speed of structural change. Struct Change Econ Dyn 42: 26-37. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.05.003
    [16] Sachse K, Jungermann H, Belting JM (2012) Investment risk-The perspective of individual investors. J Econ Psychol 33: 437-447. doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2011.12.006
    [17] Samaniego RM, Sun JY (2016) Productivity growth and structural transformation. Rev Econ Dyn 21: 266-285. doi: 10.1016/j.red.2015.06.003
    [18] Saviotti P, Pyka A, Jun B (2016) Education, structural change and economic development. Struct Change Econ Dyn 38: 55-68. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2016.04.002
    [19] Shinzato T (2018) Maximizing and minimizing investment concentration with constraints of budget and investment risk. Phys A 490: 986-993. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.08.088
    [20] Sukharev OS (2019) The restructuring of the investment portfolio: the risk and effect of the emergence of new combinations. Quant Financ Econ 3: 390-411. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2019.2.390
    [21] Vu KM (2017) Structural change and economic growth: Empirical evidence and policy insights from Asian economies. Struct Change Econ Dyn 41: 64-77. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.04.002

    © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
  • Reader Comments
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Metrics

Article views(318) PDF downloads(352) Cited by(3)

Article outline

Figures and Tables

Figures(16)

Other Articles By Authors

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog