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Research article Special Issues

Machine learning-based surrogates for eVTOL performance prediction and design optimization

  • Received: 12 April 2024 Revised: 31 May 2024 Accepted: 24 June 2024 Published: 08 July 2024
  • Predicting the performance of different electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle designs is paramount to vehicle manufacturers and hobbyists. These vehicles' maximum flight time (endurance) and maximum flight distance (range) depend on design and operational parameters relating to their structure, propulsion system, payload, and mission profile. In recent years, sophisticated physics-based models have been developed to estimate and optimize their aerodynamic, propulsion, and electrical performance. Integrating and simulating those models can closely estimate a vehicle's endurance and range. However, this demands advanced knowledge of different subsystems utilized and extensive computational resources limiting the wide-scale utilization of such models. This paper showcases the development and implementation of a framework to train simpler machine learning-based surrogates. The surrogate models are trained on a limited number of eVTOL performance estimates generated by physics-based models and can mimic them accurately. Forty-seven thousand eVTOL vehicle designs were simulated to generate the training data for various machine-learning models. These include several decision tree models, K-nearest neighbor models, linear regression models, and a multi-perceptron neural network model. Vehicle design and operational parameters such as propeller size, payload mass, drag coefficient, velocity, and motor and battery parameters are used as features, and vehicle endurance and range estimates are used as targets. Compared to the alternative approaches, these surrogate models are computationally very efficient and easy to understand and use. Testing on hold-out datasets shows excellent performance, with multiple models having a mean average percentage error of less than 2% in estimating vehicle endurance and range.

    Citation: Jubilee Prasad Rao, Sai Naveen Chimata. Machine learning-based surrogates for eVTOL performance prediction and design optimization[J]. Metascience in Aerospace, 2024, 1(3): 246-267. doi: 10.3934/mina.2024011

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  • Predicting the performance of different electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle designs is paramount to vehicle manufacturers and hobbyists. These vehicles' maximum flight time (endurance) and maximum flight distance (range) depend on design and operational parameters relating to their structure, propulsion system, payload, and mission profile. In recent years, sophisticated physics-based models have been developed to estimate and optimize their aerodynamic, propulsion, and electrical performance. Integrating and simulating those models can closely estimate a vehicle's endurance and range. However, this demands advanced knowledge of different subsystems utilized and extensive computational resources limiting the wide-scale utilization of such models. This paper showcases the development and implementation of a framework to train simpler machine learning-based surrogates. The surrogate models are trained on a limited number of eVTOL performance estimates generated by physics-based models and can mimic them accurately. Forty-seven thousand eVTOL vehicle designs were simulated to generate the training data for various machine-learning models. These include several decision tree models, K-nearest neighbor models, linear regression models, and a multi-perceptron neural network model. Vehicle design and operational parameters such as propeller size, payload mass, drag coefficient, velocity, and motor and battery parameters are used as features, and vehicle endurance and range estimates are used as targets. Compared to the alternative approaches, these surrogate models are computationally very efficient and easy to understand and use. Testing on hold-out datasets shows excellent performance, with multiple models having a mean average percentage error of less than 2% in estimating vehicle endurance and range.



    Order statistics are important in many probability areas, including reliability theory, auction theory, and operations research. Denote Xk:n by the k-th order statistic of random variables X1,X2,...,Xn, k=1,2,...,n. In reliability theory, Xk:n characterizes the lifetime of a (nk+1)-out-of-n system. Specifically, Xn:n and X1:n can express as the lifetimes of parallel and series systems, respectively. In auction theory, Xn:n and X1:n represent the first-price sealed-bid auction and final price of the first-price procurement auction, respectively. Exploring the stochastic behavior of coherent systems is one of the most important subjects in reliability. Stochastic orders, which are valuable instruments for measuring the size and variability of random variables, have been frequently employed in stochastic comparisons of reliability systems.

    Many scholars have spent decades studying stochastic comparisons of order statistics from heterogeneous and independent distributions. The usual stochastic order, the hazard rate order, and the likelihood ratio order are all stochastic orders that compare the "magnitude" of random variables. For example, [1] studied the largest order statistic in terms of the hazard rate and the dispersive order. [2] obtained ordering properties of the largest order statistic with two independent heterogeneous exponential samples with respect to the likelihood ratio order and the hazard rate order. [3] investigated the likelihood ratio order and the stochastic order between the smallest order statistic of independent and dependent samples. [4] focused on stochastic orders to compare the magnitudes of two parallel systems from Weibull distributions when one set of scale parameters majorizes the other. There have been lots of extensions works to the case of stochastic comparisons with independent heterogeneous Weibull distribution, for example, [5,6,7]. Besides, we study stochastic orders that compare the "variability" or the "dispersion" of random variables. The most important and common orders are the convex and dispersive orders. The variability of order statistics from heterogeneous and independent random variables has nice applications in the reliability theory and actuarial science, and has been studied by many researchers. For instance, the convex transform, star, and dispersive orders are used for comparing variability in probability distributions. [8] proved the star order between the largest order statistic from heterogeneous(homogeneous) and independent proportional hazard rates(PHR) models. [9] investigated the stochastic comparisons of the largest and the smallest order statistics with independent heterogeneous generalized exponential samples in terms of various stochastic orders. [10] gave some sufficient conditions for stochastic comparisons between the largest order statistic with exponentiated Weibull samples with respect to the usual stochastic, the likelihood ratio order, and the dispersive order. [11] compared two of the largest order statistics having heterogeneous exponentiated Weibull samples in terms of the reversed hazard rate and likelihood ratio orders. [12] considered stochastic comparisons of the smallest order statistic from the location-scale family of distributions with respect to different stochastic orders. [13] focused on some stochastic comparisons between the corresponding order statistics based on modified proportional hazard rates and modified proportional reversed hazard rates models. [14] presented some new ordering properties between two parallel systems comprising general independent heterogeneous samples in the sense of the usual stochastic and reversed hazard rate orders. [15] dealt with some stochastic comparisons of both the largest and the smallest order statistics comprising dependent Burr Type XII samples under the Archimedean copula with respect to the star order and the convex transform order. [16] considered the largest order statistic with Pareto samples and studied the effect of heterogeneity on the skewness of such systems. [17] established some properties of the new measures for various classes of symmetric and asymmetric distributions, and characterized the generalized Pareto distribution in terms of the convex transform order. For more investigations, one may refer to [18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31].

    All of the above studies are restricted to the independent case. However, in most practical scenarios, due to the common environment or share the same workload, which results in the dependence among the samples. In recent years, the dependent samples of order statistics have attracted widespread attention in the academic world. [32] investigated the ordering properties of order statistics from random variables of Archimedean copulas. [33] studied order statistics from random variables following the scale model with respect to the usual stochastic order of the sample extremes and the second smallest order statistic, the dispersive order, and the star order of the sample extremes. [34] further obtained the stochastic properties of the largest and the smallest order statistics with heterogeneous and dependent PHR samples in the sense of the usual stochastic order. [35] discussed stochastic comparisons of the largest and the smallest order statistics with heterogeneous and dependent resilience-scaled samples. [36] provided sufficient conditions for the hazard rate order on the smallest and proportional hazard rates or scales, and the reversed hazard rate order on the largest of the sample with Archimedean copula. [37] obtained the variability of both the largest and the smallest order statistics of heterogeneous samples, sufficient conditions are established for the dispersive and the star orders between the smallest order statistic consisting of dependent samples having multiple-outlier proportional hazard rates and Archimedean copulas. [38] focused on the usual stochastic, star, and convex transform orders of extreme order statistic comparing heterogeneous and dependent extended exponential samples under Archimedean copulas. [39] carried out stochastic comparisons of the largest and the smallest order statistics with dependent heterogeneous Topp-Leone generated samples in terms of the usual stochastic order and the reversed hazard rate order. [40] investigated stochastic comparisons on extreme order statistic from heterogeneous and dependent samples following modified proportional reversed hazard rated and modified proportional hazard rates models. [41] provided distribution-free results to compare, in the usual stochastic order under some majorization conditions, coherent systems with heterogeneous and dependent components where the dependency structure can be defined by any copula. The stochastic comparisons with statistically dependent samples has attracted widespread attention among a lot of scholars. The interested readers may refer to [42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54].

    Truncated Weibull distributions are comprehensively applied to product reliability, modeling product failures, quality control and life testing, so it is very meaningful that we research the ordering statistics results of truncated Weibull models. As discussed in [55,56], in many sampling settings, observations are limited to a subset of the population's potential values. As a result of the limiting process, only n of N prospective observations remain visible, while (N-n) are deleted. When N(or N-n) is known, the resulting collection of partial data is referred to as censored; otherwise, it is referred to as truncated. A defined number of objects are generally evaluated for a fixed amount of time in life testing, which is aimed to estimate the average life span of, for example, transistors from a certain production line. Because the lives of things surviving the life test are unknown, this results in a censored sample of lifetimes. In certain real-life testing circumstances, the total number of items on the exam is unknown. This happens, for example, when a certain unknown number of products are put through a life test and one of them has a specific fault that is only discovered after the item fails. If the lifespan of an item with this specific defect is the variable of interest, the sample is truncated in the sense that the number of missing observations with lifetime larger than the burn-in or testing period is unknown. Therefore, conducting sample research with Lower-truncated Weibull distribution has very important theoretical needs and practical significance. [57] discussed the stochastic comparisons of extreme order statistics with heterogeneous and independent lower-truncated Weibull samples. A random variable X is said to have doubly truncated Weibull distribution if its cumulative distribution function is

    G(x)=F(x)F(T)F(L)F(T),0TxL<,

    where F(x)=1e(λx)α(x0,λ>0,α>0). When T=0 and L, it becomes two-parameter Weibull distribution. When T=0 and L<, it is upper-truncated Weibull distribution, and when T>0 and L, it is lower-truncated Weibull distribution. For more details on Weibull distribution and its truncated forms, one may refer to [58,59].

    In this paper, we will focus attention on the lower-truncated Weibull with cumulative distribution function and probability density function

    G(x)=1e1(λx)α,x1λ,
    g(x)=αλαxα1e1(λx)α,x1λ,

    respectively. We denote XLTW(α,λ) if X has the distribution functions G(x). Motivated by the work of [57], this paper focus on studying the usual stochastic, the hazard rate, the convex transform and the dispersive orders of the extreme order statistic from dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples. We derive the magnitude and variability with the heterogeneity considered in the shape and scale parameter. The difference from [57] is that we extend the independent situation to the dependent situation.

    The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we review some definitions of stochastic orders, majorizations, and some lemmas. In Section 3, we discuss the usual stochastic order and the hazard rate order of the smallest and the largest order statistics with dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples. In Section 4, we get the convex transform and the dispersive orders of the largest and the smallest order statistics with dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples. Finally, Section 5 concludes the paper with some remarks.

    Before proceeding to the main results, we briefly introduce some basic concepts about stochastic orders, majorization, and Archimedean copula, which are very useful tools to compare random variables arising from reliability theory, operations research, actuarial science, and so on. Furthermore, the notion 'asgn=b' means that a and b have the same sign.

    Let X be a non-negative random variable with distribution function FX(t), survival function ˉFX(t)=1FX(t), probability density function fX(t), the hazard rate function hX(t)=fX(t)/ˉFX(t), and the right-continuous inverse F1X.

    Definition 1. A non-negative random variable X is said to be smaller than Y in the sense of

    (i) Usual stochastic order (denoted by XstY) if ˉFX(t)ˉFY(t) for all t[0,);

    (ii) Hazard rate order (denoted by XhrY) if ˉFY(t)/ˉFX(t) is increasing in t[0,) or hX(t)hY(t) in t[0,);

    (iii) Dispersive order (denoted by XdispY) if F1X(v)F1X(u)F1Y(v)F1Y(u) for all 0uv1. When X and Y have densities fX and fY, respectively, then XdispY if and only if fY(F1Y(t))fX(F1X(t)) for all t(0,1);

    (iv) Convex transform order (denoted by XcY) if F1YFX(t) is convex in t[0,), or equivalently, XcY if and only if F1XFY(t) is concave in t[0,);

    (v) Star order (denoted by XY) if F1YFX(t)/t is increasing in t[0,);

    (vi) Lorenz order (denoted by XLorenzY) if LX(t)LY(t) for all t[0,1], where the Lorenz curve LX is defined as LX(t)=t0F1X(u)du/μX, and μX=E[X].

    It is known that

    XhrYXstYandXcYXYXLorenzY,

    but the reversed statement is not true in general. The convex transform is usually used to describe skewness. Skewness is an important quantity used for measuring the asymmetry in a distribution. For a unimodal distribution, nagative skewness indicates that the tail on the left side of the density function is longer than the right side, while positive skewness indicates that the tail on the right side of the density function is longer than the left side. The convex transform order in this regard implies that one distribution is more skewed to the right than the other distribution. It should be noticed that the convex transform suitable for a non-negative random variable, hence the implication XcYXY holds when X and Y are two non-negative random variables (see [60]). For more comprehensive discussions on various stochastic orders and their applications, one may refer to [61,62].

    Majorization order is an important tool in establishing various inequaties arising from many research areas. Denote In=1,2,...,n.

    Definition 2. For two real vectors a=(a1,a2,...,an) and b=(b1,b2,...,bn)Rn, a(1)a(2)a(n) and b(1)b(2)b(n) denote the increasing arrangement of the components of a and b, respectively. Then

    (i) Vector a is said to be majorized by vector b (denoted by amb) if ij=1a(j)ij=1b(j) for i=1,2,...,n1, and nj=1a(j)=nj=1b(j);

    (ii)Vector a is said to be weakly supermajorized by vector b (denoted by awb) if ij=1a(j)ij=1b(j) for i=1,2,...,n.

    Definition 3. ([63]) A real-valued function φ, defined on a set ARn, is said to be Schur-convex (Schur-concave) on A if amb implies φ(a)()φ(b) for any a,bA.

    It is clear that amb implies awb. For more details on majorization, weak majorization and Schur-convex (Schur-convave) functions, one may refer to [63]. The sufficient and necessary conditions for the characterization of Schur-convex (Schur-concave) function is presented in the following lemma.

    Lemma 1. ([63]) Let IR be an open interval and let ψ:InR be continuously differentiable. Then, ψ is Schur-convex (Schurconcave) on I if and only if ψ is symmetric on In and for all ij,

    (xixj)[ψ(x)xiψ(x)xj]()0, for all xIn,

    where ψ(x)/xi denotes the partial derivative of ψ with respect to its i-th argument.

    Lemma 2. ([63]) For a real-valued function ψ defined on a set ARn, awb implies ψ(a)ψ(b) if and only if ψ is decreasing and Schur-convex on A.

    Archimedean copula has been used in reliability theory and many other areas due to its capability of capturing wide ranges of dependence and mathematical tractability. By definition, for a continuous and decreasing function ϕ:R+[0,1] such that ϕ(0)=1, ϕ(+)=0, let ψ=ϕ1 be the pseudo-inverse,

    Cψ(u1,...,un)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(ui)), for all ui[0,1],i=1,2,...,n,

    is called an Archimedean copula with the generator ψ if (1)n2ψ(n2)(x) is decreasing and convex and (1)kψ(k)(x)0 for all x0, k=0,1,...,n2. For more discussions on copulas and their properties, one may refer to [64,65].

    Lemma 3. ([32]) For two n-dimensional Archimedean copulas Cψ1 and Cψ2, if ϕ2ψ1 is super-additive, then Cψ1(u)Cψ2(u) for all u[0,1]n.

    Lemma 4. ([34]) For generators ψ1 and ψ2 of Archimedean copulas, if ψ2(ϕ2(t)/n)/ψ1(ϕ1(t)/n) increases in t, then, for all t[0,1], ψ2(nϕ2(t))ψ1(nϕ1(t)) and

    ψ2(ϕ2(t)/n)ψ2(ϕ2(t))ψ2(ϕ2(t)/n)ψ1(ϕ1(t)/n)ψ1(ϕ1(t))ψ1(ϕ1(t)/n).

    In this section, we provide the ordering properties of the largest and the smallest order statistics with dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples in terms of the usual stochastic order and the hazard rate order. We denote XLTW(α,λ,ψ) as the sample arising from non-negative random variables X1,X2,...,Xn assembled with an Archimedean copula having generator ψ, where XiLTW(αi,λi) for i=1,2,...,n.

    First, Theorem 1 gives sufficient conditions for the largest order statistic from dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples in terms of the usual stochastic order.

    Theorem 1. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ1) and YLTW(β,λ,ψ2). If ϕ2ψ1 be super-additive, then, for λ>0, x1/λ, we have

    αwβYn:nstXn:n.

    Proof. First, the distribution functions of Xn:n and Yn:n are given by

    FXn:n(x)=ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)αi)),x1/λ

    and

    FYn:n(x)=ψ2(ni=1ϕ2(1e1(λx)βi)),x1/λ,

    respectively. Note that super-additivity of ϕ2ψ1 implies

    ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)βi))ψ2(ni=1ϕ2(1e1(λx)βi)).

    Hence, to obtain the required result, it suffices to show that

    ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)αi))ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)βi)).

    Denote Π(α1,α2,...,αn)=ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)αi)). According to Lemma 2, we need to show that Π(α1,α2,...,αn) is Schur-concave in (α1,α2,...,αn) and increasing in αs. Taking the partial derivative of Π(α1,α2,...,αn) with respect to αs, we have

    Π(α1,α2,...,αn)αs=ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)αi))e1(λx)αsψ1(ϕ1(1e1(λx)αs))(λx)αsln(λx)=ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(e1(λx)αi))G(αs,x)F(αs,x)ln(λx)0,

    where G(αs,x)=(ψ1(ϕ1(1e1(λx)αs)))1, F(αs,x)=(λx)αse1(λx)αs. Because G(αs,x) is non-positive and increasing in αs for λ>0,x1/λ, and F(αs,x) is non-negative and decreasing in αs, for λ>0, x1/λ. Hence, Π(α1,α2,...,αn) and G(αs,x)F(αs,x) are increasing in αs, for λ>0, x1/λ. Therefore, for any st, we have

    (αsαt)(Π(α1,α2,...,αn)αsΠ(α1,α2,...,αn)αt)=(αsαt)ψ1(ni=1ϕ1(1e1(λx)αi))[G(αs,x)F(αs,x)G(αt,x)F(αt,x)]ln(λx)0.

    Thus, Π(α1,α2,...,αn) is Schur-concave in (α1,α2,...,αn), the desired result follows from Lemma 2.

    Remark 1. We have to mention that the condition 'ϕ2ψ1' is super-additive in Theorem 1 is general and easy to be satisfied for many Archimedean copulas. For example,

    (i)The Clayton copula with generator ψ(t)=(θt+1)1/θ for θ0. Let us set ψ1(t)=(θ1t+1)1/θ1 and ψ2(t)=(θ2t+1)1/θ2. It can be observed that ϕ2ψ1(t)=(θ1t+1)θ2θ1/θ21/θ2. Taking the derivative of ϕ2ψ1 with respect to t twice, we can see that [ϕ2ψ1]0 for θ2θ10. Thus, ϕ2ψ1 is super-additivity (cf. Table 4.2.3 on Page 116 of [64]);

    (ii)The Gumbel-Hougaard copula with generator ψ(t)=e1(1+t)θ for θ[1,). Let us set ψ1(t)=e1(1+t)α and ψ2(t)=e1(1+t)β. It can be seed that ϕ2ψ1(t)=(1+t)α/β1. Taking the derivative of ϕ2ψ1 with respect to t twice, we can see that [ϕ2ψ1]0 for αβ1 which implies the superadditivity of ϕ2ψ1 (cf. Table 4.2.3 on Page 116 of [64]).

    The following Example 1 illustrates the result of Theorem 1.

    Example 1. Consider the case of n=3. Let generators ψ1(x)=(θ1x+1)1/θ1, ψ2(x)=(θ2x+1)1/θ2, θi0,i=1,2. Set θ1=0.1, θ2=1, λ=0.5, α=(0.2,0.4,0.6)w(0.4,0.6,0.8)=β. One can check all conditions of Theorem 1 are statisfied. Plot the whole of distribution function curves of X3:3 and Y3:3 on (2,). As is seen in Figure 1, the distribution function curve of X3:3 is always beneath that of Y3:3, that is, X3:3stY3:3, which coincided with the result of Theorem 1.

    Figure 1.  The distribution function curves of X3:3 and Y3:3.

    The proof of Theorem 2 can be obtained similarly that of Theorem 1, thus we omit the proof process of Theorem 2.

    Theorem 2. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ1) and YLTW(α,μ,ψ2). If ϕ2ψ1 be superadditive. Then, for xmax(1/λ1,1/λ2,...,1/λn,1/μ1,1/μ2,..,1/μn) and 0<α1, we have

    λwμYn:nstXn:n.

    Remark 2. It should be noted that for independent samples, ψ(x)=ex, thus Theorem 1 and Theorem 2 generalizes Theorem 3.2 of [57] from independent samples to the case of statistically dependent components with Archimedean copulas.

    Remark 3. Proposition 3.7 in [41] is considerably more generic, because the random variables studied in such proposition have arbitrary distribution functions, however, in this paper, we explore a specific sort of distribution function, namely the lower-truncated Weibull distribution. In comparison to Proposition 3.7 in [41], the Theorem 1 and the Theorem 2 do not need the requirement ψ1 is log-convex, hence our conditions are weaker for lower-truncated Weibull distribution in the largest order statistic.

    We present the following Example 2 to illustrate the result of Theorem 2.

    Example 2. Take ψ1(x)=(θ1x+1)1/θ1, ψ2(x)=(θ2x+1)1/θ2. Set θ1=0.2, θ2=0.5, α=0.2, λ=(0.2,0.4,0.6)w(0.4,0.6,0.8)=μ. These satisfy all conditions of Theorem 2, and the whole of distribution function curves of X3:3 and Y3:3 on (5,) are plotted in Figure 2, which asserts X3:3stY3:3.

    Figure 2.  The distribution function curves of X3:3 and Y3:3.

    First, we will give a stochastic comparison of the smallest order statistic from dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples in terms of the usual stochastic order.

    Corollary 1. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ1) and YLTW(β,λ,ψ2). If ϕ2ψ1 be super-additive and ψ1 is log-convex. Then, for λ>0, x1/λ. We have

    αmβY1:nstX1:n.

    Proof. The distribution function of X is increasing in α, and the survival function of X is log-concave in α, which satisfies conditions in Proposition 3.16 of [41]. Hence, according to Proposition 3.16 of [41], we can easily establish the result of Corollary 1.

    The next Example 3 is provided to explain the result of Corollary 1.

    Example 3. Let generators n=3, ψ1(x)=(θ1x+1)1/θ1, ψ2(x)=(θ2x+1)1/θ2, θi0,i=1,2. Set θ1=0.2, θ2=2, λ=0.5, α=(0.3,0.4,0.5)m(0.5,0.6,0.1)=β. It is apparent to the ϕ2ψ1 be super-additive and ψ1 is log-convex. The whole of survival function curves of X1:3 and Y1:3 are display in Figure 3, which confirmed that X1:3stY1:3.

    Figure 3.  The survival function curves of X1:3 and Y1:3.

    Corollary 2. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ1) and YLTW(α,μ,ψ2). Suppose ϕ2ψ1 be super-additive.

    (i) If ψ1 is log-concave and λwμ, then Y1:nstX1:n for all 0<α1 and xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/μ1,...,1/μn).

    (ii) If ψ1 is log-convex and λmμ, then Y1:nstX1:n for all α1 and xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/μ1,...,1/μn).

    Proof. (i) The distribution function of X is increasing in λ, and the survival function of X is log-concave in λ for 0<α1, which satisfies conditions in Proposition 3.16 of [41]. As a result, Corollary 2(i) can be obtained immediately from proposition 3.7 in [41].

    (ii) The proof of Corollary 2(ii) can be obtained similarly that of Corollary 2(i), thus we omit the proof process of Corollary 2(ii).

    In the following, we will give a numerical example to illustrate the Corollary 2.

    Example 4. (i) Consider the case of n=3. Let generators ψ1(x)=e(1ex)/θ1,0θ11, ψ2(x)=(θ2x+1)1/θ2, θ20. Set θ1=0.1, θ2=1.2, α=0.5, μ=(0.2,0.4,0.6)w(0.4,0.6,0.8)=λ. One can check all conditions of Corollary 2(i) are statisfied. The survival function curves of X1:3 and Y1:3 are plotted in Figure 4(i), which coincided with the result of Corollary 2(i).

    Figure 4.  The graphs of the survival function of X1:3 and Y1:3, for the lower-truncated Weibull (α=0.5) ({left}) and (α=2) ({right}).

    (ii) Let ψ1(x)=(θ1x+1)1/θ1, ψ2(x)=(θ2x+1)1/θ2, θi0,i=1,2. Set n=3, θ1=0.1, θ2=1, α=2, λ=(0.2,0.3,0.4)m(0.3,0.4,0.2)=μ. As is seen in Figure 4(ii), the survival function curve of X1:3 is always beneath that of Y1:3, that is, X1:3stY1:3, which verified Corollary 2 (ii).

    The following Theorem 3 carries out stochastic comparison of the smallest order statistics from dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples in the sense of the hazard rate order.

    Theorem 3. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ) and YLTW(α,μ,ψ). If ψ is log-concave, and ψ/ψ is log-convex. Then, for 0<α1/2 and xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/μ1,..,1/μn), then

    μwλY1:nhrX1:n.

    Proof. For ease of reference, let us list the following facts.

    ϱ1: ψ(x)0 and ψ(x)0.

    ϱ2: The ψ is log-concave implies that ψ/ψ decreasing and hence ψ(x)ψ(x)[ψ(x)]2.

    ϱ3: The ψ/ψ is log-convex implies that {ψ(x)ψ(x)[ψ(x)]2}/ψ(x)ψ(x)0 increases in x0.

    The survival function of X1:n is given by

    ˉFX1:n(x)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α)),xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/μ1,..,1/μn),

    the hazard rate function of X1:n can be expressed as

    hX1:n(x)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))ni=1ψ(ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ϕ(e1(λix)α))(αλαixα1)=L(x,λ,α,ψ),

    xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/μ1,..,1/μn).

    Likewise, Y1:n gets the hazard rate function hY1:n=L(x,μ,α,ψ). Further denote

    A(λ(s,t),x)=is,tψ(ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ϕ(e1(λix)α))(αλαixα1),B(λ,x)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α)),
    Jψ(x)=ψ(x)ψ(x)(ψ(x))2(ψ(x))2,C(λ,x)=Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))B(λ,x).

    Then, for any s,tIn with st, we have

    L(x,λ,α,ψ)λs=Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))B(λs,x)(αλα1sxα)ni=1ψ(ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ϕ(e1(λix)α))(αλαixα1)+ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))Jψ(ϕ(e1(λsx)α))B3(λs,x)(αλ2α1sx2α1)+ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))B(λs,x)(α2λα1sxα1)=Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))B(λs,x)(αλα1sxα)×(A(λ(s,t),x)+B(λs,x)(αλαsxα1)+B(λt,x)(αλαtxα1))+B2(λs,x)B(λ,x)C(λses,x)(α2λ2α1sx2α1)+B(λs,x)B(λ,x)(α2λα1sxα1).

    Owing to ϱ3, it holds that C(λ,x)C(λs,x). Combining ϱ1, ϱ2 with C(λ,x)C(λs,x) we have

    L(x,λ,α,ϕ)λs=Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))A(λ(s,t),x)B(λs,x)(αλα1sxα)Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))B(λs,x)B(λt,x)(α2x2α1λαtλα1s)B2(λs,x)B(λ,x)(C(λ,x)C(λs,x))(α2λ2α1sx2α1)+B(λs,x)B(λ,x)(α2λα1sxα1)0.

    Therefore, L(x,λ,α,ψ) is increasing in λs. Furthermore, for s,tIn with st, we obtain

    (λsλt)(L(x,λ,α,ψ)λsL(x,λ,α,ψ)λt)=(λsλt)Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))A(λ(s,t),x)(αxα)(B(λs,x)λα1sB(λt,x)λα1t)+(λsλt)2Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))α2x2α1B(λs,x)B(λt,x)λα1tλα1s(λsλt)α2x2α1B(λ,x)×[B2(λs,x)(C(λ,x)C(λs,x))λ2α1sB2(λt,x)(C(λ,x)C(λt,x))λ2α1t]+(λsλt)α2xα1B(λ,x)(B(λs,x)λα1sB(λt,x)λα1t).

    It is easy to verify that B(λs,x)λα1s is increasing in λs for 0<α1, therefore

    (λsλt)Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))A(λ(s,t),x)(αxα)(B(λs,x)λα1sB(λt,x)λα1t)0. (3.1)

    By ϱ1, we have

    (λsλt)2Jψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))α2x2α1B(λs,x)B(λt,x)λα1tλα1s0. (3.2)

    B2(λs,x)λ2α1s is decreasing in λs, for 0<α1/2, which implies that 0B2(λs,x)λ2α1sB2(λt,x)λ2α1t. By ϱ3, for λsλt, we have C(λ,x)C(λt,x)C(λ,x)C(λs,x)0. It holds that

    (λsλt)α2x2α1B(λ,x)×{B2(λs,x)(C(λ,x)C(λs,x))λ2α1sB2(λt,x)(C(λ,x)C(λt,x))λ2α1t}0. (3.3)

    Likewise, for λsλt, then

    (λsλt)α2xα1B(λ,x)(B(λs,x)λα1sB(λt,x)λα1t)0. (3.4)

    Combing (3.1)–(3.3) with (3.4), we conclude that L(x,λ,α,ψ) is Schur-concave in (λ1,...,λn). Thus, the desired result follows immediately from Lemma 2.

    Remark 4. It should be noted that for independent samples, ψ(x)=ex, thus Theorem 1 generalizes Theorem 3.1 of [57] from independent components to the case of dependent samples.

    We present the following Example 5 to illustrate the result of Theorem 3.

    Example 5. Take ψ(x)=e(1ex)/θ,0θ0.5(35). Set n=3, θ=0.1, α=0.25, μ=(0.2,0.4,0.6)w(0.4,0.6,0.8)=λ. As is seen in Figure 5, the hazard rate function curve of Y1:3 is always beneath that of X1:3, that is, X1:3hrY1:3, which coincides Theorem 3.

    Figure 5.  Curves of the hazard rate function hX1:3(X) and hY1:3(X).

    Next counterexample 1 explains the result in Theorem 3 couldn't hold if α1/2.

    Counterexample 1. Let ψ(x)=e(1ex)/θ,0θ0.5(35). Set n=3, θ=0.381, α=0.55, μ=(0.2,0.4,0.6)w(0.4,0.6,0.8)=λ. As is seen in Figure 6, the difference between the hazard rate functions hX1:n and hY1:n is not always non-negative and this means that Y1:nhrX1:n. So the result in Theorem 3 couldn't hold if α1/2.

    Figure 6.  Curve of difference functions of hX1:n(X)hY1:n(X).

    In this section, we study the convex transform order and the dispersive order of the smallest and the largest order statistics from dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples.

    First, we compare the smallest and the largest order statistics between dependent and heterogeneous-homogeneous samples with respect to the convex transform order.

    Theorem 4. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ) and YLTW(α,λ,ψ).

    (i) If ψ is log-concave, then Y1:ncX1:n for all 0<α1.

    (ii) Yn:ncXn:n for all 0<α1.

    Proof. (i) The survival functions of X1:n and Y1:n are given by

    ˉFX1:n(x)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α)),xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/λ)

    and

    ˉFY1:n(x)=ψ(nϕ(e1(λx)α)),xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/λ),

    respectively. It holds that

    F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x))=1λ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α))]1α=1λ[1lnL(x)]1α,

    where L(x)=ψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λix)α)). The first and the second partial derivatives of F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)) with respect to x are

    x[F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x))]=1λα[1lnL(x)]1αα(L(x)L(x))

    and

    2x2[F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x))]=1λα{1αα[1lnL(x)]12αα(L(x)L(x))2+[1lnL(x)]1αα(L(x))2L(x)L(x)L2(x)},

    respectively. Thus, F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)) is convex if 0<α1 and (L(x))2L(x)L(x)0, for which it is sufficient to have 0<α1 and ψ is log-concave.

    (ii) The survival functions of Xn:n and Yn:n are given by

    FXn:n(x)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(1e1(λix)α)),xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/λ)

    and

    FYn:n(x)=ψ(nϕ(1e1(λx)α)),xmax(1/λ1,...,1/λn,1/λ),

    respectively. Note that

    F1Yn:n(FXn:n(x))=1λ[1ln(1ψ(1nni=1ϕ(1e1(λix)α)))]1α=1λ[1ln(1L(x))]1α,

    where L(x)=ψ(1nni=1ϕ(1e1(λix)α)). The first and second partial derivatives of F1Yn:n(FXn:n(x)) with respect to x are

    x[F1Yn:n(FXn:n(x))]=1λα[1ln(1L(x))]1αα(L(x)1L(x))

    and

    2x2[F1Yn:n(FXn:n(x))]=1λα{1αα[1ln(1L(x))]12αα(L(x)1L(x))2+[1ln(1L(x))]1αα(1L(x))L(x)+(L(x))2(1L(x))2}.

    respectively. Thus, for 0<α1, F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)) is convex in xR+.

    The following Corollary 3 is an obvious consequence of Theorem 4.

    Corollary 3. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ) and YLTW(α,λ,ψ).

    (i) If ψ is log-concave, then Y1:nLorenz()X1:n for all 0<α1.

    (ii) Yn:nLorenz()Xn:n for all 0<α1.

    Next counterexample 2 explains the result in Theorem 4 (i) couldn't hold if α1.

    Counterexample 2. Take ψ(x)=e(1ex)/θ,0θ0.5(35). Set n=2, θ=0.381, α=1.51,λ=0.2,λ=(0.6,0.8). As is seen in Figure 7, the curve of 2F1Y1:2(FX1:2(x))/x2 is not positive and this means that Y1:2cX1:2. Hence the result in Theorem 4 couldn't hold if α1.

    Figure 7.  The curve of 2F1Y1:2(FX1:2(x))/x2.

    Theorem 4 indicates that the larger and the smaller order statistics, from dependent homogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples, are more skewed to the right than those from dependent heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples.

    Aside from the convex transform order, which commonly measures skewness, the dispersive order also measures skewness from a different standpoint. Theorem 5 looks at the dispersive order of the smallest order statistic from dependent heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples and dependent homogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples with the identical Archimedean copulas.

    Theorem 5. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ) and YLTW(α,λ,ψ). If ψ is log-convex, ψ/ψ is concave and 0<α(1/n)ni=1αi=ˉα1, λ0, then we have Y1:ndispX1:n.

    Proof. The survival functions of X1:n and Y1:n are given by

    ˉFX1:n(x)=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi)),x1/λ

    and

    ˉFY1:n(x)=ψ(nϕ(e1(λx)α)),x1/λ,

    respectively. The corresponding density functions of X1:n and Y1:n can be express

    fX1:n=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ni=1ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))(αiλαixαi1)

    and

    fY1:n=ψ(nϕ(e1(λx)α))nψ(ϕ(e1(λx)α))ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)α))(αλαxα1),

    respectively. Note that

    F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x))=1λ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))]1α,

    therefore,

    fY1:n(F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)))=ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))nψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))αλ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))]α1α.

    Since ψ is n-monotone, ϕ(e1(λx)α) is increasing and convex in α when ψ is log-convex and when α(1/n)ni=1αi=ˉα, we have

    ϕ(e1(λx)α)ϕ(e1(λx)ˉα)1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi),

    which implies

    x1λ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))]1α.

    Notice 0<α1, then

    αλαxα1αλ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))]α1α.

    It is easy to see that αλαxα1 is increasing and convex in α. When α1nni=1αi=ˉα, we have

    αλαxα1ˉαλˉαxˉα11nni=1αiλαixαi1.

    Thus

    αλ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))]α1α1nni=1αiλαixαi1. (4.1)

    Observe ψ/ψ is concave, then we have

    ψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))1nni=1ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi)). (4.2)

    Thus

    αλ[1lnψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))]α1α(ψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(1nni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi)))1nni=1αiλαixαi1(1nni=1ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))). (4.3)

    By Chebyshev's inequality, we have

    1nni=1αiλαixαi1(1nni=1ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi)))1nni=1αiλαixαi1(ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))ψ(ϕ(e1(λx)αi))). (4.4)

    From (4.1)–(4.4) and ψ(ni=1ϕ(e1(λx)αi)) is non-positive, we have

    fY1:n(F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)))fX1:n(x).

    Hence, the theorem follows.

    Theorem 6 studies the dispersive order of the smallest order statistic from dependent homogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples with different Archimedean copulas.

    Theorem 6. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ1) and YLTW(α,λ,ψ2). If 0<α1, λ0, ψ2(ϕ2(x)/n)/ψ1(ϕ1(x)/n) is increasing in x, we have Y1:ndispX1:n.

    Proof. The survival functions of X1:n and Y1:n are

    ˉFX1:n(x)=ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α)),x1/λ

    and

    ˉFY1:n(x)=ψ2(nϕ2(e1(λx)α)),x1/λ,

    respectively. The X1:n and Y1:n corresponding density functions are

    fX1:n=ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))nψ1(ϕ1(e1(λx)α))ψ1(ϕ1(e1(λx)α))(αλαxα1)

    and

    fY1:n=ψ2(nϕ2(e1(λx)α))nψ2(ϕ2(e1(λx)α))ψ2(ϕ2(e1(λx)α))(αλαxα1),

    respectively. Note that

    F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x))=1λ[1lnψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))]1α,
    fY1:n(F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)))=ψ2(ϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))n×ψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))ψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))αλ[1lnψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))]α1α.

    By Lemma 4, observe that ψ2(ϕ2(x)/n)/ψ1(ϕ1(x)/n) is increasing in x, we have

    ψ2(nϕ2(e1(λx)α))ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α)),

    which implies

    e1(λx)αψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α)))).

    Notice 0<α1, we obtain

    αλ[1lnψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))]α1ααλαxα1. (4.5)

    From Lemma 4, by substituting t=ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α)), we have

    ψ2(ϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))ψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))ψ2(1nϕ2(ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))))ψ1(nϕ1(e1(λx)α))ψ1(ϕ1(e1(λx)α))ψ1(ϕ1(e1(λx)α)). (4.6)

    From (4.5) and (4.6), we have fY1:n(F1Y1:n(FX1:n(x)))fX1:n(x). Hence the theorem follows.

    The following Corollary 4 derives from Theorem 5 and Theorem 6. Corollary 4 compares the smallest of two samples, one group from n dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples and another group from n dependent and homogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples with different Archimedean copulas.

    Corollary 4. Let XLTW(α,λ,ψ1) and YLTW(α,λ,ψ2). If ψ1 is log-convex, ψ1/ψ1 is concave and ψ2(ϕ2(t)/n)/ψ1(ϕ1(t)/n) is increasing in t, for 0<α(1/n)ni=1αi=ˉα1, λ0, then we have Y1:ndispX1:n.

    Proof. Let ZiLTW(α,λ)(i=1,2,...,n) and the associated Archimedean copula is with generator ψ1. Then from Theorem 5, we have Z1:ndispX1:n, and from Theorem 6, we have Y1:ndispZ1:n.

    In reliability, the smallest order statistics represents a series system. Corollary 4 indicates that the aging rate of dependent and homogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples is usually faster than dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples.

    The study of ordering findings of order statistics is critical in many practical domains, including actuarial science, reliability theory, auction theory and multivariate statistics. In this part, we will look at how the established theoretical conclusions may be put to use. In industrial engineering areas. These are referred to as the parallel and series systems, respectively. Consider two series systems with n dependent components that are modeled using lower-truncated Weibull models. More heterogeneous scale parameters in the weakly supermajority order yield a series system with a stochastically longer lifetime, according to Theorem 1. Similar findings may be drawn from Theorems 2 for more heterogeneous reciprocals of location parameters in terms of weak supermajority orders.

    We studied the usual stochastic order, the hazard rate order, the dispersive order, and the convex transform order in this paper considering dependent and heterogeneous lower-truncated Weibull samples of both the biggest and smallest order statistics. It is highly significant to compare distinct extremes order statistics using the convex transform order, which may be used to examine the relative aging properties of systems from diverse perspectives. These findings generalize several previous findings in the literature. The fundamental restriction of the researched topic may be the absence of treatment of the kth order statistic, which has a significant practical impact. However, due to the complexities of modeling for statistically dependent order statistics, these intriguing problems remain unsolved and demand more investigation.

    All authors thank the insightful and constructive comments and suggestions from the Editor and three anonymous reviewers, which have greatly improved the presentation of this manuscript. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11861058 and No. 71471148).

    The authors declare no conflicts of interest.



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