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Research article Special Issues

Defining a new method to set certainty factors to improve power systems prognosis with fuzzy petri nets

  • In power systems, faults are unavoidable events. They can cause disastrous problems to operations. In this study, we aim to reduce the bad effects resulting from these faults in order to raise the operation performance. Fuzzy petri nets (FPN) are very important tools used to diagnose and prognosis issues. However, they take constant certainty factors (CFs) and depend upon long-term statistical average values to describe initial places. A new method is introduced here to determine CFs and initial truth degrees in FPN, so they can reflect different operating states and adapt to any changes in conditions in order to improve the prognosis. For this purpose, we define new kinds of CFs in order to take various conditions into account and represent a wide range of their effects on the system. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the system operation at different states under different conditions to determine the state that may cause problems, and take convenient procedures to prevent them. The proposed method is applied on a reliability test system to show its ability to make the FPN model more flexible and cover a wide range of operation cases.

    Citation: R. S. Solaiman, T. G. Kherbek, A. S. Ahmad. Defining a new method to set certainty factors to improve power systems prognosis with fuzzy petri nets[J]. AIMS Energy, 2020, 8(4): 686-700. doi: 10.3934/energy.2020.4.686

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  • In power systems, faults are unavoidable events. They can cause disastrous problems to operations. In this study, we aim to reduce the bad effects resulting from these faults in order to raise the operation performance. Fuzzy petri nets (FPN) are very important tools used to diagnose and prognosis issues. However, they take constant certainty factors (CFs) and depend upon long-term statistical average values to describe initial places. A new method is introduced here to determine CFs and initial truth degrees in FPN, so they can reflect different operating states and adapt to any changes in conditions in order to improve the prognosis. For this purpose, we define new kinds of CFs in order to take various conditions into account and represent a wide range of their effects on the system. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the system operation at different states under different conditions to determine the state that may cause problems, and take convenient procedures to prevent them. The proposed method is applied on a reliability test system to show its ability to make the FPN model more flexible and cover a wide range of operation cases.


    In the present paper, we consider numerical solution of the time fractional Fokker-Planck equations (TFFPEs):

    {αtuΔu+p(u)+q(x,t)u=f(x,t),(x,t)Ω×(0,T],u(x,0)=u0(x),xΩ,u(x,t)=0,xΩ,t(0,T], (1.1)

    where ΩRd(d=1,2,3), x=(x1,x2,,xd), u0(x) is smooth on Ω, p:=(p1,p2,,pd) with pi:=pi(x,t)(i=1,2,,d) and q:=q(x,t) are continuous functions. αtu represents the Caputo derivative of order α(0,1). When α=1 in Eq (1.1), the corresponding equations are a class of very useful models of statistical physics to describe some practical phenomena. TFFPEs are widely used in statistical physics to describes the probability density function of position and the evolution of the velocity of a particle, see e.g., [1,2,3,4]. The TFFPEs also represent the continuous limit of a continuous time random walk with a Mittag-Leffler residence time density. For a deeper understanding of TFFPEs, we refer the readers to [5,6]. In addition, the regularity of the solutions of the TFFPE (1.1) can be found in [7].

    For the past few years, many numerical methods were used to solve the TFFPEs. For example, Deng [8] proposed an efficient predictor-corrector scheme. Vong and Wang [9] constructed a compact finite difference scheme. Mahdy [10] used two different techniques to study the approximate solution of TFFPEs, namely the fractional power series method and the new iterative method. Yang et al. [11] proposed a nonlinear finite volume format to solve the two-dimensional TFFPEs. More details can refer to [12,13,14,15]. Besides, it is difficult that analysing the convergence and stability properties of the numerical schemes for TFFPEs, when convective and diffusion terms exist at the same time. In the study of TFFPEs, the conditions imposed on p and q were somewhat restrictive. For example, for solving the one-dimensional TFFPEs, Deng [16] proved the stability and convergence under the conditions that p1 was a monotonically decreasing function and q0. Chen et al. [17] obtained the stability and convergence properties of the method with the conditions that p1 was monotone or a constant and q was a constant.

    To solve the time Caputo fractional equations, one of the keys is the treatment of the Caputo derivative, which raised challenges in both theoretical and numerical aspects. Under the initial singularity of the solutions of the equations, many numerical schemes are only proved to be of τα in temporal direction, e.g., convolution quadrature (CQ) BDF method [18], CQ Euler method [19], uniform L1 method et al. [20,21]. Here τ represents the temporal stepsize. Considering the singularity of solutions, different numerical formats were established to obtain high convergence orders, e.g., the Alikhanov scheme (originally proposed in [22]) and the L1 scheme (see e.g., [23]) by employing the graded mesh (i.e., tn=T(n/K)r,n=1,2,,K, r is mesh parameter). It was proved that the optimal convergence of those methods can be 2 and 2α iff r2/α and r(2α)/α, respectively (see e.g., [24,25,26,27,28,29]). The ¯L1 scheme studied in [30,31,32] was another high-order scheme for Caputo fractional derivative. There were also some fast schemes for Caputo fractional derivative, see [33,34,35,36]. When α was small, the grids at the beginning would become very dense. It may lead to the so-called round-off errors. Recently, taking the small α and the initial singularity into account, Li et al. [37] introduced the transformation s=tα for the time variable, and derived and analyzed the equivalent fractional differential equation. They constructed the TL1 discrete scheme, and obtained that the convergence order of the TL1 scheme is of 2α. Based on the previous research, Qin et al. [38] studied the nonlinear fractional order problem, and established the discrete fractional order Grönwall inequality. Besides, discontinuous Galerkin methods were also effective to solve the similar problems with weak singular solutions [39,40,41].

    Much of the past study of TFFPEs (i.e., in [16,17,42,43]) has been based on many restrictions on q and pi,i=1,2,,d. This reduces the versatility of the equations. In the paper, we consider the more general TFFPE (1.1), i.e., q and pi,i=1,2,,d, are variable coefficients, and q is independent of pi. We draw on the treatment of the Caputo derivative in [37], introduce variable substitution, and construct the TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral scheme to solve the equivalent s-fractional equation. For time discreteness, we take into account the initial singularity, and obtain that the optimal convergence order is 2α. In terms of spatial discreteness, unlike other schemes [16,17], which impose restrictions on coefficients, the Legendre-Galerkin spectral scheme does not require pi and q to be constants or to be monotonic. Besides, we obtain the following theoretical results. The order of convergence in L2-norm of the method is exponential order convergent in spatial direction and (2α)-th order convergent in the temporal direction. And the scheme is valid for equations with small parameter α.

    The structure of the paper is as follows. In Section 2, we propose the TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral scheme for solving TFFPEs. In Section 3, the detailed proof of our main results is presented. In Section 4, two numerical examples are given to verify our obtained theoretical results. Some conclusion remarks are shown in Section 5.

    We denote Wm,p(Ω) and ||||Wm,p(Ω) as the Sobolev space of any functions defined on Ω and the corresponding Sobolev norm, respectively, where m0 and 1p. Especially, denote L2(Ω):=W0,2(Ω) and Hm(Ω):=Wm,2(Ω). Define C0(Ω) as the space of infinitely differentiable functions which are nonzero only on a compact subset of Ω and H10(Ω) as the completion of C0(Ω). For convenience, denote ||||0:=||||L2(Ω), ||||m:=||||Hm(Ω).

    For simplicity, we suppose that Ω=(1,1)d, and u(x,t)H10(Ω)Hm(Ω) for 0tT. First of all, we introduce TL1 scheme to discrete the Caputo fractional derivative. Introducing the change of variable as follows [21,37,44]:

    t=s1/α,w(x,s)=u(x,s1/α). (2.1)

    By this, then the Caputo derivative of u(x,t) becomes

    αtu(x,t)=1Γ(1α)t0u(x,r)r1(tr)αdr=1Γ(1α)s0w(x,r)r1(s1/αr1/α)αdr=Dαsw(x,s). (2.2)

    Hence, Eq (1.1) can be rewritten as

    Dαsw(x,s)Δw+˜p(w)+˜q(x,s)w=˜f(x,s),(x,s)Ω×(0,Tα], (2.3)
    w(x,s)=0,(x,s)Ω×(0,Tα], (2.4)
    w(x,0)=u0(x),xΩ, (2.5)

    where ˜p=(˜p1,˜p2,,˜pd), ˜pd:=pd(x,s1/α),˜q:=q(x,s1/α), and ˜f(x,s)=f(x,s1/α). Let sn=Tαn/K,n=0,1,,K, and the uniform mesh on [0,Tα] with τs=snsn1. For convenience, Ki, i1 represent the positive constants independent of τs and N, where N represents polynomial degree. In addition, we define the following notations

    ˜pnd:=˜pd(x,sn),˜qn:=˜q(x,sn),˜fn:=˜f(x,sn),
    wn:=w(x,sn),˜pn:=(˜pn1,˜pn2,,˜pnd).

    Applying the TL1 approximation, we have

    Dαswn=1Γ(1α)sn0w(x,r)r1(s1/αnr1/α)αdr=1Γ(1α)nl=1wlwl1τsslsl1dr(s1/αnr1/α)α+Qn=nl=1an,nl(wlwl1)+Qn:=Dατwn+Qn. (2.6)

    Here the coefficients an,nl=1τsΓ(1α)slsl1dr(s1/αnr1/α)α, and Qn represents the truncation error. For more details, we refer to [37,38]. By Eq (2.6), then Eq (2.3) arrives at

    DατwnΔwn+˜pn(wn)+˜qnwn=˜fnQn.

    For spatial discretization, we introduce the following basis functions:

    {ψk(x)}={ψk1(x1)ψk2(x2)ψkd(xd),k1,k2,,kdIN},

    where k=(k1,k2,,kd), IN={0,1,2,,N2}. For ψki(xi),i=1,2,,d, one has

    ψki(xi)=Lki(xi)Lki+2(xi)for kiIN, (2.7)

    where {Lj(x)}Nj=0 are the Legendre orthogonal polynomials, given by the following recurrence relationship [45]:

    {(j+1)Lj+1(x)=(2j+1)xLj(x)jLj1(x)for j1,L0(x)=1,L1(x)=x. (2.8)

    Define the finite-dimensional approximation space

    XN=span{ψk(x),k1,k2,,kdIN},

    where N=(N,N,,Nd). For any function wN(x), write

    wN(x)=k1,k2,,kdINˆwkψk(x).

    By Eqs (2.7) and (2.8), we have

    wN(x)|Ω=0for wN(x)XN.

    Then, the TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral scheme is to seek WnXN, such that

    (DατWn,v)+(Wn,v)+(Wn,˜pnv)+(˜qnWn,v)=(˜fn,v)for vXN. (2.9)

    Here W0=πNw0, and πN is the Ritz projection operator given in Lemma 2. For instance, if d=1, we solve Eqs (2.3) and (2.4) by

    A1Dατˆwn+(A2+A3n+A4n)ˆwn=Fn, (2.10)

    where ˆwn=(ˆwn0,ˆwn1,ˆwn2,,ˆwnN2)T, A1j,h=(ψh(x),ψj(x)), j,hIN, A2j,h=(ψh(x),ψj(x)), A3nj,h=(˜pnψh(x),ψj(x)), A4nj,h=(˜qnψh(x),ψj(x)), and Fnj,1=(˜fn,ψj(x)).

    The typical solution of Eq (1.1) meets [18,46,47]

    ||ut(x,t)||0Ctα1,

    then, with the help of the changes of variable (2.1), one has (see e.g., [38])

    ||lwsl(x,s)||0C(1+s1/αl)<,l=1,2, (2.11)

    where C>0 is a constant independent of s and x. From [37, Lemma 2.2] and [38, Lemma 2.1], the solution becomes smoother at the beginning.

    Now, the convergence results of TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral scheme (2.9) is given as follows.

    Theorem 1. Assume that ˜q and ~pi,i=1,2,,d, in (2.3) are bounded, and that the unique solution w of Eqs (2.3) and (2.4) satisfying Eq (2.11) and w(x,s)H10(Ω)Hm(Ω). Then, there exist N0>0 and τ0>0 such that when NN0 and τsτ0, Eq (2.9) has a unique solution Wn(n=0,1,,K), which satisfies

    ||wnWn||0K(τ2αs+N1m), (2.12)

    where K>0 is a constant independent of τs and N.

    We will present the detailed proof of Theorem 1 in this section. For this, we first introduce the following several lemmas.

    Lemma 1. [37,38] For n1, we get

    0<an,n1an,n2an,0. (3.1)

    Lemma 2. If we given the Ritz projection operator πN:H10(Ω)XN by

    ((πNww),v)=0forvXN,

    then, one can get that [48]

    ||πNww||lCΩNlm||w||mforwH10(Ω)Hm(Ω)

    with dmN+1, where CΩ>0 is a constant independent of N.

    Lemma 3. [49] For any sK=Tα>0 and given nonnegative sequence {λi}K1i=0, assume that there exists a constant λ>0 independent of τs such that λK1i=0λi. Assume also that the grid function {wn|n0} satisfies

    Dατ(wn)2ni=1λni(wi)2+wn(Qn+ξ)forn1,

    where {Qn|n1} is well defined in Eq (2.6). Then, there exists a constant τs>0 such that, when τsτs,

    wj2Eα(2λsj)[w0+C1(τ2αs+ξ)]for1jK,

    where C1 is a constant and Eα(x)=k=0xkΓ(1+kα).

    We will offer the proof of Theorem 1 in this section. The projection πNwn of the exact solution wn satisfies

    (DατπNwn,v)=(πNwn,v)(πNwn,˜pnv)(˜qnπNwn,v)+(˜fn,v)(Qn,v)(Rn,v)for vXN. (3.2)

    Here Rn=Dατ(wnπNwn)Δ(wnπNwn)+˜pn(wnπNwn)+˜qn(wnπNwn), and Qn is the truncation error for approximating the fractional derivative defined in Eq (2.6).

    The error between numerical solution Wn and exact solution wn can be divided into

    ||wnWn||0||wnπNwn||0+||πNwnWn||0. (3.3)

    Let

    en:=πNwnWnfor n=0,1,,K.

    Subtracting Eq (2.9) from Eq (3.2), we get that

    (Dατen,v)=(en,v)(en,˜pnv)(˜qnen,v)(Qn,v)(Rn,v)for vXN. (3.4)

    Setting v=en in Eq (3.4), we obtain

    (Dατen,en)=(en,en)(en,˜pnen)(˜qnen,en)(Qn,en)(Rn,en). (3.5)

    By Lemma 1, we have

    (Dατen,en)=(nl=1an,nl(elel1),en)=(an,0enn1l=1(an,nl1an,nl)elan,n1e0,en)12(an,0||en||20n1l=1(an,nl1an,nl)||el||20an,n1||e0||20)=12Dατ||en||20. (3.6)

    By Cauchy-Schwartz inequality, one can obtain that

    (en,en)(en,˜pnen)(˜qnen,en)||en||20+K1|(en,en)|+K2||en||20||en||20+||en||20+K214||en||20+K2||en||20(K214+K2)||en||20. (3.7)

    Here K1=max0nK{||˜p(x,sn)||0}, and K2=max0nK{maxxΩ|˜q(x,sn)|}. Similarly, we see that

    (Qn,en)||Qn||0||en||0. (3.8)

    Noting that enXN and by Lemma 2, one has

    ((wnπNwn),en)=0.

    Then

    (Rn,en)=(Dατ(wnπNwn),en)((wnπNwn),en)((wnπNwn),pnen)(˜qn(wnπNwn),en)||Dατ(wnπNwn)||0||en||0+K1||(wnπNwn)||0||en||0+K2||wnπNwn||0||en||0CΩNm||Dατwn||m||en||0+K1CΩN1m||wn||m||en||0+K2CΩNm||wn||m||en||0K3N1m||en||0. (3.9)

    Here K3=max0nK{CΩ||Dατwn||m,K1CΩ||wn||m,K2CΩ||wn||m}, and Lemma 2 is applied. Substituting Eqs (3.6)–(3.9) into Eq (3.5), one gets

    Dατ||en||202(K214+K2)||en||20+2(||Qn||0+K3N1m)||en||0.

    Noting that e0=0 and by Lemma 3, it follows that

    ||en||04K3C1(τ2αs+N1m)Eα(4(K21/4+K2)sn).

    By Eq (3.3), we observe

    ||wnWn||0||wnπNwn||0+||en||0CΩNm||wn||m+4K3C1(τ2αs+N1m)Eα(4(K21/4+K2)sn)K(τ2αs+N1m),

    where K=max0nK{CΩ||wn||m,4K3C1Eα(4(K21/4+K2)sn)}. This completes the proof.

    In this section, two numerical examples are given to verify our theoretical results. We define the maximal L2 error and the convergence order in time, respectively, as

    e(K)=max0nK||wnWn||L2,order=log(e(K1)/e(K2))log(K2/K1). (4.1)

    Example 1. Consider the one-dimensional TFFPEs:

    αtu=uxx2ux+t2u+f(x,t),u(1,1)×(0,1], (4.2)

    where the initial-boundary conditions and the forcing term function f are choosen by the analytical solution

    u(x,t)=(t2+tα)(x3+x5)sin(πx).

    In this case, q is independent of p1, furthermore, p1 and q are not monotone functions.

    We solve this problem with the TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral method. Table 1 gives the maximal L2 errors, the convergence orders in time and the CPU times with N=14. The temporal convergence orders are close to 2α in Table 1. For the spatial convergence test, we set K=8192. In Figure 1, we give the errors as a function of N with α=0.3,0.5,0.7 in logarithmic scale. We can observe that the errors indicate an exponential decay.

    Table 1.  Maximal L2 errors, convergence orders in time and CPU times with N=14 for Example 1.
    α=0.1 α=0.3 α=0.5
    K e(K) order CPU(s) e(K) order CPU(s) e(K) order CPU(s)
    4 5.3660e-03 * 1.12e-02 7.5697e-03 * 9.76e-03 8.5571e-03 * 9.92e-03
    16 1.3833e-03 0.98 2.45e-02 1.1574e-03 1.35 2.19e-02 1.3367e-03 1.34 2.25e-02
    64 1.7352e-04 1.50 8.06e-02 1.3606e-04 1.54 7.53e-02 1.8311e-04 1.43 7.40e-02
    256 1.6850e-05 1.68 2.90e-01 1.4476e-05 1.62 3.00e-01 2.3859e-05 1.47 3.01e-01

     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV
    Figure 1.  Errors in space with α=0.3,0.5,0.7 and different N for Example 1.

    Example 2. Consider the two-dimensional TFFPEs:

    αtu=Δu+t2x2y2(ux+uy)+(2t2xy2+2t2x2y)u,u(1,1)2×(0,1], (4.3)

    where the initial-boundary conditions and the forcing term function f are choosen by the analytical solution

    u(x,y,t)=Eα(tα)sin(πx)sin(πy).

    Table 2 gives the maximal L2 errors, the convergence orders in time and the CPU times with N=14. The temporal convergence orders are close to 2α in Table 2. For the spatial convergence test, we give the errors as a function of N for α=0.3,0.5,0.7 and K=8192 in Figure 2. We use the logarithmic scale for the error-axis. Again, we observe that the errors indicate an exponential decay.

    Table 2.  Maximal L2 errors, convergence orders in time and CPU times with N=14 for Example 2.
    α=0.3 α=0.5 α=0.7
    K e(K) order CPU(s) e(K) order CPU(s) e(K) order CPU(s)
    32 7.0619e-05 * 2.08e-01 1.7386e-04 * 1.73e-01 3.1316e-04 * 1.69e-01
    256 3.3124e-06 1.47 1.34e+00 9.7836e-06 1.38 1.28e+00 2.3617e-05 1.24 1.31e+00
    2048 1.1965e-07 1.60 1.29e+01 4.6734e-07 1.46 1.28e+01 1.6199e-06 1.29 1.30e+01
    8192 1.2339e-08 1.64 8.59e+01 5.9649e-08 1.48 8.54e+01 2.6824e-07 1.30 8.83e+01

     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV
    Figure 2.  Errors in space with α=0.3,0.5,0.7 and different N for Example 2.

    We present a TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral method to solve TFFPEs in this paper. The new scheme is convergent with O(τ2αs+N1m), where τs, N and m are the time step size, the polynomial degree and the regularity of the analytical solution, respectively. In addition, this TL1 Legendre-Galerkin spectral method still holds for problems with small α and gives better numerical solutions near the initial time. The new scheme can achieve a better convergence result on a relatively sparse grid point.

    The work of Yongtao Zhou is partially supported by the NSFC (12101037) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M690322).

    The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.



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