Spatiotemporal trends and age-period-cohort effects in global depression incidence, 1990-2019

Jiaxin Zhao; Jingjing Wu; Yiwen Tao; Jiaxin Zhao; Jingjing Wu; Yiwen Tao

doi:10.3934/bdia.2025010

Big Data and Information Analytics

2025, Volume 9, 211-230. doi: 10.3934/bdia.2025010

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Research article

Spatiotemporal trends and age-period-cohort effects in global depression incidence, 1990-2019

1.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
2.
UQ Centre for Clinical Research, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Herston, Queensland (QLD), Australia

Received: 08 November 2025 Revised: 14 November 2025 Accepted: 20 November 2025 Published: 24 November 2025

Depression is recognized as the second most significant health threat to humanity. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of global trends in depression. By employing Joinpoint regression models, we examine long-term and segmented trends in depression incidence rates across different genders and age groups from 1990 to 2019. The results reveal an upward trend in the incidence rates since 2015 among both males and females, particularly among individuals in their mid-20s and early 40s. Furthermore, through an age-period-cohort model, we assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence rates. The findings indicate a gradual decline in incidence risk among males over time, a modest post-2015 increase among females, and a decreasing risk trend for cohorts born after 1965. Together, these results illuminate the evolving global patterns of depression incidence, thereby emphasizing gender and age disparities as well as the complex interactions among age, period, and cohort effects.
- depression,
- global trends,
- epidemiology,
- age-period-cohort effects,
- socioeconomic disparities
Citation: Jiaxin Zhao, Jingjing Wu, Yiwen Tao. Spatiotemporal trends and age-period-cohort effects in global depression incidence, 1990-2019[J]. Big Data and Information Analytics, 2025, 9: 211-230. doi: 10.3934/bdia.2025010

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Abstract

Depression is recognized as the second most significant health threat to humanity. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of global trends in depression. By employing Joinpoint regression models, we examine long-term and segmented trends in depression incidence rates across different genders and age groups from 1990 to 2019. The results reveal an upward trend in the incidence rates since 2015 among both males and females, particularly among individuals in their mid-20s and early 40s. Furthermore, through an age-period-cohort model, we assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence rates. The findings indicate a gradual decline in incidence risk among males over time, a modest post-2015 increase among females, and a decreasing risk trend for cohorts born after 1965. Together, these results illuminate the evolving global patterns of depression incidence, thereby emphasizing gender and age disparities as well as the complex interactions among age, period, and cohort effects.

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