The transmission of chikungunya virus

Daihai He; Linxi He; Li Wen; Qiong Li; Weiming Wang; Ningkui Sun; Guihong Fan; Daihai He; Linxi He; Li Wen; Qiong Li; Weiming Wang; Ningkui Sun; Guihong Fan

doi:10.3934/bdia.2025009

Big Data and Information Analytics

2025, Volume 9, 188-210. doi: 10.3934/bdia.2025009

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Research article

The transmission of chikungunya virus

Daihai He ^{1
,
,},
Linxi He ¹,
Li Wen ¹,
Qiong Li ²,
Weiming Wang ^{3
,
,},
Ningkui Sun ⁴,
Guihong Fan ^{5
,
,}

1.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China
2.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Interdisciplinary Research and Application for Data Science, Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University, Zhuhai 519087, China
3.
School of Computer Science and Technology, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an 223399, China
4.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China
5.
Department of Mathematics, Columbus State University, Columbus, GA 31907, USA

Received: 07 November 2025 Revised: 14 November 2025 Accepted: 19 November 2025 Published: 24 November 2025

The global resurgence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 2025, with significant outbreaks reported in the Americas, islands in the Indian Ocean, Asia, and Western Pacific region, has raised new public health concerns. Brazil remains one of the most heavily affected countries, with more than 180,000 reported cases. This global situation makes understanding early signals and cross-regional transmission patterns increasingly important. Chikungunya and dengue are spread by the same vectors: Aedes mosquitoes. Hence, comparative analysis of transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) can be productive. Our comparative analysis found that both the 2013 CHIKV outbreak and the monthly proportion of DENV serotype 2 in Singapore were ahead of those in Brazil, thus playing the role of a herald wave (early warning). This study further investigated the epidemic dynamics of CHIKV in comparison with DENV, focusing on Brazil from 2017 to 2025. Using national surveillance data, we analyzed spatiotemporal heterogeneity, demographic distributions, and infection attack rates for both arboviruses. We found that chikungunya exhibited greater regional heterogeneity and lower temporal synchrony than dengue, likely due to differences in the basic reproduction number (R0) and population immunity. Case burdens were highest among working-age adults, while infants and the elderly experienced more severe outcomes. The higher case numbers reflect the larger population size in this age group rather than higher individual infection risk. To reconstruct long-term epidemic trajectories at the regional level, we developed a modified SEIR5S compartmental model. We estimated the time-varying basic reproductive number for dengue and chikungunya, and showed that they shared a common component and also had distinct components.
- global spread,
- chikungunya,
- dengue,
- cocirculation,
- mathematical model
Citation: Daihai He, Linxi He, Li Wen, Qiong Li, Weiming Wang, Ningkui Sun, Guihong Fan. The transmission of chikungunya virus[J]. Big Data and Information Analytics, 2025, 9: 188-210. doi: 10.3934/bdia.2025009

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Abstract

The global resurgence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 2025, with significant outbreaks reported in the Americas, islands in the Indian Ocean, Asia, and Western Pacific region, has raised new public health concerns. Brazil remains one of the most heavily affected countries, with more than 180,000 reported cases. This global situation makes understanding early signals and cross-regional transmission patterns increasingly important. Chikungunya and dengue are spread by the same vectors: Aedes mosquitoes. Hence, comparative analysis of transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) can be productive. Our comparative analysis found that both the 2013 CHIKV outbreak and the monthly proportion of DENV serotype 2 in Singapore were ahead of those in Brazil, thus playing the role of a herald wave (early warning). This study further investigated the epidemic dynamics of CHIKV in comparison with DENV, focusing on Brazil from 2017 to 2025. Using national surveillance data, we analyzed spatiotemporal heterogeneity, demographic distributions, and infection attack rates for both arboviruses. We found that chikungunya exhibited greater regional heterogeneity and lower temporal synchrony than dengue, likely due to differences in the basic reproduction number (R0) and population immunity. Case burdens were highest among working-age adults, while infants and the elderly experienced more severe outcomes. The higher case numbers reflect the larger population size in this age group rather than higher individual infection risk. To reconstruct long-term epidemic trajectories at the regional level, we developed a modified SEIR5S compartmental model. We estimated the time-varying basic reproductive number for dengue and chikungunya, and showed that they shared a common component and also had distinct components.

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