Research Article Special Issues

Parameter estimation and prediction for coronavirus disease outbreak 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria

  • Received: 19 April 2020 Accepted: 18 May 2020 Published: 22 May 2020
  • Background The wave of the coronavirus disease outbreak in 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world. In Algeria, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 25 February, 2020, and the number of confirmed cases of it has increased day after day. To overcome this difficult period and a catastrophic scenario, a model-based prediction of the possible epidemic peak and size of COVID-19 in Algeria is required. Methods We are concerned with a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (SEIR) population dynamics. By using the method of least squares and the best fit curve that minimizes the sum of squared residuals, we estimate the epidemic parameter and the basic reproduction number 0. Moreover, we discuss the effect of intervention in a certain period by numerical simulation. Results We find that 0 = 4.1, which implies that the epidemic in Algeria could occur in a strong way. Moreover, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: the intervention has a positive effect on the time delay of the epidemic peak; the epidemic size is almost the same for a short intervention; a large epidemic can occur even if the intervention is long and sufficiently effective. Conclusion Algeria must implement the strict measures as shown in this study, which could be similar to the one that China has finally adopted.

    Citation: Soufiane Bentout, Abdennasser Chekroun, Toshikazu Kuniya. Parameter estimation and prediction for coronavirus disease outbreak 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2020, 7(2): 306-318. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020026

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  • Background The wave of the coronavirus disease outbreak in 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world. In Algeria, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 25 February, 2020, and the number of confirmed cases of it has increased day after day. To overcome this difficult period and a catastrophic scenario, a model-based prediction of the possible epidemic peak and size of COVID-19 in Algeria is required. Methods We are concerned with a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (SEIR) population dynamics. By using the method of least squares and the best fit curve that minimizes the sum of squared residuals, we estimate the epidemic parameter and the basic reproduction number 0. Moreover, we discuss the effect of intervention in a certain period by numerical simulation. Results We find that 0 = 4.1, which implies that the epidemic in Algeria could occur in a strong way. Moreover, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: the intervention has a positive effect on the time delay of the epidemic peak; the epidemic size is almost the same for a short intervention; a large epidemic can occur even if the intervention is long and sufficiently effective. Conclusion Algeria must implement the strict measures as shown in this study, which could be similar to the one that China has finally adopted.
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    Acknowledgment



    The authors would like to thank the associate editor and the anonymous reviewer for their valuable comments and suggestions, which have led to a significant improvement of the whole manuscript. S. Bentout and A. Chekroun are supported by the DGRSDT, Algeria. T. Kuniya is supported by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists (grant number 19K14594).

    Conflict of interest



    The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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    © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
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