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The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal


  • Received: 31 August 2021 Accepted: 09 November 2021 Published: 22 November 2021
  • In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.

    Citation: Beatriz Machado, Liliana Antunes, Constantino Caetano, João F. Pereira, Baltazar Nunes, Paula Patrício, M. Luísa Morgado. The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2022, 19(1): 936-952. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022043

    Related Papers:

  • In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.



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