Citation: Zheng Nan, Taisei Kaizoji. Bitcoin-based triangular arbitrage with the Euro/U.S. dollar as a foreign futures hedge: modeling with a bivariate GARCH model[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2019, 3(2): 347-365. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2019.2.347
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Rotational grazing has been used in agriculture for many years and has been accepted as a more efficient and sustainable alternative to continuous grazing. Agricultural publications explain that rotational grazing provides grasses with more sunlight, water, and nutrients as well as more time to regrow and deepen roots, which leads to a higher quality and quantity of forage and expedited browsing on the cattle's behalf [12,23,27]. Thus it is conducive that for the same amount of grass in both situations, rotational grazing can support more cattle and is thus more productive. However, there exists no quantified method published that concretely describes this improvement [10,24].
Moreover, rotational grazing as a whole requires many parameters, such as the number of paddocks, rotational period, and proper factor which is a percentage of the total forage that should be consumed. Farmers have experimented with these; some use thirty paddocks and rotate every day while others use three and rotate every two weeks. Thus most claim that rotational grazing varies by farms and offer the following equations as a numerical guidance [17]:
Number of Paddocks=Days of RestDays of Grazing+1, | (1.1) |
and
Number of Days=v⋅a⋅pw⋅i⋅H, | (1.2) |
where
In this paper we use a dynamical differential equation model by Noy-Meir and May to describe the continuous grazing system [18,19] and study the effect of rotational grazing in a multi-paddock setting. The general ordinary differential equation model for a renewable natural resource exploited by natural or human causes in [18,19] is
V′(t)=G(V(t))−H⋅c(V(t)), | (1.3) |
where
This paper aims to examine and optimize rotational grazing as well as to compare it to continuous grazing through mathematical models. For some realistic standards, the proper factor is recommended to be
1.Find the ideal proper factor that maximizes the number of cattle in a continuous system.
2.Compare the productivity of rotational and continuous grazing, and conclude that rotational grazing is more productive.
3.Describe the optimal grazing configuration that maximizes, or at least obtains a balance between, the number of cattle and the amount of stockpiled forage based on the number of total paddocks, the number of paddocks grazed at any time, and the length of the grazing and rest periods.
4.Compare this model to standards in reality.
A mathematical model of rotational grazing based on Noy-Meir's base model was first considered in Noy-Meir [20]. In his scheme, the land is divided into
We organize the remaining parts of the paper in the following way. In Section 2 we introduce our differential equation model, and in Section 3 we make some concluding remarks.
We use a commonly used grazing system (1.3) as our base model for the growth of grass in a single paddock. In (1.3), the time
G(V)=gmaxV(1−VVmax). | (2.1) |
Here
The grass consumption rate has the explicit form
H⋅c(V)=H⋅cmaxVV+K. | (2.2) |
Here
Summarizing the above description, we have the following continuous grass-grazing model in a single paddock:
V′(t)=gmaxV(t)(1−V(t)Vmax)−H⋅cmaxV(t)V(t)+K. | (2.3) |
The dynamics of (2.3) are governed by the number of nonnegative equilibria.
gmaxcmax(1−VVmax)(V+K)=H. | (2.4) |
Define
H0=gmaxKcmax,Hmax=gmax(Vmax+K)24cmaxVmax. | (2.5) |
Then when
V±=Vmax−K±√(Vmax+K)2−4H12,H1=HcmaxVmaxgmax, | (2.6) |
and when
Using the parameter values we mentioned above, we find that
For the rotational grazing, we divide the entire grassland into
V′j(t)=gmaxVj(t)(1−nVj(t)Vmax)−Hj(t)⋅cmaxVj(t)Vj(t)+K,1≤j≤n. | (2.7) |
Here all parameters
Variable | Meaning | Units | ||
|
time | days | ||
|
grass biomass in paddock |
pounds/acre | ||
Parameter | Meaning | Units | Value | Reference |
|
grass carrying capacity | pounds/acre | |
[21] |
|
maximum growth rate per capita rate per capita | day |
|
[14] |
|
maximum consumption rate per head of cattle | pounds/(acre |
|
[1,2] |
|
half-saturation value | pounds/acre | |
|
|
number of cattle per acre in paddock |
cattle/acre |
In a rotational grazing strategy, we choose a rotational period
Hj(t)={H/m,knT+jT≤t<knT+(j+m)T,0,knT+(j+m)T≤t<(k+1)nT+jT, | (2.8) |
where
Period 1 :P5,P6,P7; Period 2 :P6,P7,P1; Period 3:P7,P1,P2; Period 4 :P1,P2,P3; Period 5 :P2,P3,P4; Period 6:P3,P4,P5; Period 7 :P4,P5,P6; then Period 8 will start another cycle. |
Note that a noncyclic rotation scheme can also be designed. For example,
Period 1 :P1,P2,P3; Period 2 :P4,P5,P6; Period 3:P1,P2,P7; Period 4 :P3,P4,P5; Period 5 :P1,P6,P7; Period 6:P2,P3,P4; Period 7 :P5,P6,P7; then Period 8 will start another cycle. |
In this paper we only consider the cyclic rotational strategy, so we will not compare the effectiveness of noncyclic rotational strategy.
The model (2.7) with cyclic rotational grazing (2.8) is numerically integrated with Matlab using the ode45 solver. In the simulation we choose the number of paddocks
For a fixed
HR,∗max≥HRmax≥HRmax(Ttotal)>Hmax, |
Hence the rotational grazing is more effective regardless of definitions of the maximum sustainable cattle number.
For example, if we set
Figure 5 shows the maximum sustainable number of cattle per acre depending on the rotation period and paddock scheme, shown by
1.
2.For the same
As the rotation period increases, the grass is not able to sustain as much cattle as the continuous grazing case, especially in configurations with less paddocks grazed than resting, such as schemes
Figure 6 similarly describes the amount of stockpiled forage for all the rotational schemes used in Figure 5. Let
1.
2.For the same
As the rotation period increases, more stockpiled forage is available, mainly for the configurations mentioned above that minimize the number of cattle. Nevertheless, most grazing schemes show better yields and productivity than the continuous grazing system.
Comparing Figure 5 and Figure 6, one can see that usually a larger maximum number of cattle
With our results, we discuss the observations made in Noy-Meir [20]. Aside from the differences in the general approaches as noted earlier, his scheme used very different values for
This paper mathematically compares rotational and continuous grazing and evaluates several schemes of rotational grazing through use of a differential equation model. With parameters found in agriculture literature, in continuous grazing, the proper factor
This study brings to attention many possible future ideas. Firstly in our model, the economical factors of implementing rotational grazing are ignored for simplicity. In reality, the fencing cost of dividing the grassland into paddocks and the labor cost of rotating cattle can be significant. Note that our results indicate that either a shorter rotational period
gmax(t)=A[(sin2π(t−24)365)2⋅e−t730+cos2(π(t−200)365)]+B. | (3.1) |
These modifications can lead to possibly more accurate predictions, but we expect that the qualitative behavior of a more sophisticated model is not much different from the one we consider here. We also remark that in our study we cite several different agriculture papers for parameter values as there is no any prior agricultural study providing all parameters which we need here. In the future, it would be nice to better estimate these parameters for a single biological system to test the model which we propose here.
In general, the prediction based on our model favors rotational grazing over conventional continuous grazing. This leads to a more advanced mathematical question in optimization. Our model suggests several control mechanisms which can be optimized, and other optimization approaches have also been taken [22]. One is the control parameter trio
We thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for very helpful comments which improved the manuscript.
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Variable | Meaning | Units | ||
|
time | days | ||
|
grass biomass in paddock |
pounds/acre | ||
Parameter | Meaning | Units | Value | Reference |
|
grass carrying capacity | pounds/acre | |
[21] |
|
maximum growth rate per capita rate per capita | day |
|
[14] |
|
maximum consumption rate per head of cattle | pounds/(acre |
|
[1,2] |
|
half-saturation value | pounds/acre | |
|
|
number of cattle per acre in paddock |
cattle/acre |
Variable | Meaning | Units | ||
|
time | days | ||
|
grass biomass in paddock |
pounds/acre | ||
Parameter | Meaning | Units | Value | Reference |
|
grass carrying capacity | pounds/acre | |
[21] |
|
maximum growth rate per capita rate per capita | day |
|
[14] |
|
maximum consumption rate per head of cattle | pounds/(acre |
|
[1,2] |
|
half-saturation value | pounds/acre | |
|
|
number of cattle per acre in paddock |
cattle/acre |