This study examined the long-run dynamics of energy diversification in 46 low- and lower-middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on the roles of domestic credit and income levels. Applying the Phillips–Sul convergence framework to energy concentration as an inverse measure of diversification, we found no evidence of full-sample convergence despite overall diversification gains and reduced cross-country dispersion. Instead, countries form three distinct convergence clubs, differentiated by their initial energy diversification levels and subsequent trajectories. Economies with more diversified starting points continue to broaden their energy mix, while those with highly concentrated systems exhibit slower and more limited diversification. Further regression analysis showed that higher levels of domestic credit are consistently associated with greater energy diversification. The relationship between income and diversification is nonlinear: diversification initially increases with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but declines beyond an estimated turning point of approximately PPP03, with most observations lying below this threshold. Importantly, interaction results reveal that the diversification effect of domestic credit is income-dependent, with credit expansion exerting a stronger impact at lower income levels. Overall, the findings suggest that effective energy diversification requires a staged and context-sensitive approach, in which financial policies evolve alongside income levels and existing energy structures. Aligning financial conditions with realistic energy transition pathways is likely to be central to achieving sustained diversification outcomes in developing economies.
Citation: Thanh Nguyen, Eric Tham. Club convergence in energy diversification among low- and lower-middle-income countries: The role of domestic credit and income[J]. Green Finance, 2026, 8(3): 501-534. doi: 10.3934/GF.2026018
This study examined the long-run dynamics of energy diversification in 46 low- and lower-middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on the roles of domestic credit and income levels. Applying the Phillips–Sul convergence framework to energy concentration as an inverse measure of diversification, we found no evidence of full-sample convergence despite overall diversification gains and reduced cross-country dispersion. Instead, countries form three distinct convergence clubs, differentiated by their initial energy diversification levels and subsequent trajectories. Economies with more diversified starting points continue to broaden their energy mix, while those with highly concentrated systems exhibit slower and more limited diversification. Further regression analysis showed that higher levels of domestic credit are consistently associated with greater energy diversification. The relationship between income and diversification is nonlinear: diversification initially increases with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but declines beyond an estimated turning point of approximately PPP03, with most observations lying below this threshold. Importantly, interaction results reveal that the diversification effect of domestic credit is income-dependent, with credit expansion exerting a stronger impact at lower income levels. Overall, the findings suggest that effective energy diversification requires a staged and context-sensitive approach, in which financial policies evolve alongside income levels and existing energy structures. Aligning financial conditions with realistic energy transition pathways is likely to be central to achieving sustained diversification outcomes in developing economies.
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Thanh Nguyen, Eric Tham. Club convergence in energy diversification among low- and lower-middle-income countries: The role of domestic credit and income[J]. Green Finance, 2026, 8(3): 501-534. doi: 10.3934/GF.2026018
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