Research article

Risk of temperature differences in geothermal wells and generation strategies of geothermal power

  • Received: 30 September 2020 Accepted: 27 November 2020 Published: 04 December 2020
  • JEL Codes: G12, G42

  • The objective of this paper is to discuss the impacts of the uncertainties of temperature differences between production and injection wells on geothermal power generation strategies using real option valuation. Contrary to previous studies, this study focuses on volumetric risk from the wells' temperature differences which produce both the power generation revenue and the scale-driven maintenance cost. We propose a new model of the temperature difference in a geothermal power plant and evaluate two newly designed American-type real options of a geothermal power plant with uncertainties in the temperature differences by incorporating twofold power generation strategies with temperature difference boundaries. In the first strategy, if the difference exceeds an upper threshold, the power generation ceases due to the increase of the maintenance cost from scale formation; in the second, if the difference is greater than an upper threshold or is less than a lower threshold, the power generation ceases due to the increase of the maintenance cost from scale formation or due to a shortage of calories, respectively. Results show that the net present value of a geothermal project is greater than the real option value with both the maintenance cost uncertainty and power generation uncertainty due to the negative and positive impacts of the temperature on the generation, while the net present value is less than the real option value which only reflects the maintenance cost uncertainty. It implies that the appropriate inclusion of the temperature difference risk is essential to evaluating the project value of geothermal power generation.

    Citation: Keiji Sakakibara, Takashi Kanamura. Risk of temperature differences in geothermal wells and generation strategies of geothermal power[J]. Green Finance, 2020, 2(4): 424-436. doi: 10.3934/GF.2020023

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  • The objective of this paper is to discuss the impacts of the uncertainties of temperature differences between production and injection wells on geothermal power generation strategies using real option valuation. Contrary to previous studies, this study focuses on volumetric risk from the wells' temperature differences which produce both the power generation revenue and the scale-driven maintenance cost. We propose a new model of the temperature difference in a geothermal power plant and evaluate two newly designed American-type real options of a geothermal power plant with uncertainties in the temperature differences by incorporating twofold power generation strategies with temperature difference boundaries. In the first strategy, if the difference exceeds an upper threshold, the power generation ceases due to the increase of the maintenance cost from scale formation; in the second, if the difference is greater than an upper threshold or is less than a lower threshold, the power generation ceases due to the increase of the maintenance cost from scale formation or due to a shortage of calories, respectively. Results show that the net present value of a geothermal project is greater than the real option value with both the maintenance cost uncertainty and power generation uncertainty due to the negative and positive impacts of the temperature on the generation, while the net present value is less than the real option value which only reflects the maintenance cost uncertainty. It implies that the appropriate inclusion of the temperature difference risk is essential to evaluating the project value of geothermal power generation.


    Since Hirsch and Smale[1] proposed the necessity of structural stability, this topic has received sufficient attention from scholars. This type of research focuses on whether small disturbances in the coefficients, initial data, and geometric models in the equations will cause significant disturbances in the solutions. At the beginning, people were mainly keen on dealing with the continuous dependence and convergence of fluid in porous media defined in two-dimensional or three-dimensional bounded regions. Freitas et al. [2] studied the long-term behavior of porous-elastic systems and proved that solutions depend continuously on the initial data. Payne and Straughan[3] established a prior bounds and maximum principles for the solutions and obtained the structural stability of Darcy fluid in porous media, where they assumed that the temperature satisfies Newton's cooling conditions at the boundary. Scott[4] considered the situation where Darcy fluid undergoes exothermic reactions at the boundary and obtained the continuous dependence of the solutions on the boundary parameters. Li et al.[5] studied the interface connection between Brinkman–Forchheimer fluid and Darcy fluid in a bounded region, and obtained the continuous dependence on the heat source and Forchheimer coefficient. For more papers, on can see [6,7,8,9,10].

    With the continuous development of technology and progress in the field of engineering, the necessity of studying the structural stability of fluid equations on a semi-infinite cylinder is even more urgent. The semi-infinite cylinder refers to a cylinder whose generatrix is parallel to the coordinate axis and its base is located on the coordinate plane, i.e.,

    R={(x1,x2,x3)|(x1,x2)D, x30},

    where D is a bounded domain on x1Ox2.

    Li et al. have already done some work on this topic. Li and Lin[11] proved the continuous dependence on the Forchheimer coefficient of the Brinkman–Forchheimer equations in R. Papers [12] and [13] obtained structural stability for Forchheimer fluid and temperature-dependent bidispersive flow in R, respectively.

    In this paper, we introduce a new cylinder with a disturbed base, which has been considered in [14]. Let D(f) represent the disturbed base, i.e.,

    D(f)={(x1,x2,x3)|x3=f(x1,x2)0, (x1,x2)D},

    where the given function f satisfies

    |f(x1,x2)|<ϵ, ϵ>0.

    ϵ is called the perturbation parameter. The cylinder with a disturbed base is defined as

    R(f)={(x1,x2,x3)|(x1,x2)D, x3f(x1,x2)0}.

    Different from [14], we study the heat conduction equation applicable to the study of layered composite materials in binary mixtures[15]

    b1ut=k1uγ(uv), in R×{t>0}, (1.1)
    b2vt=k2v+γ(uv), in R×{t>0}, (1.2)
    u=v=0, on D×{x3>0}×{t>0}, (1.3)
    u=v=0, in R×{t=0}, (1.4)

    where k1,k2,b1,b2 and γ are positive constants. u and v are the temperature fields in each constituent. Papers [16,17,18] further discussed and generalized the application of Eqs (1.1) and (1.2).

    In this paper, we shall also use the notations

    R(z)={(x1,x2,x3)|(x1,x2)D,x3z0},
    D(z)={(x1,x2,x3)|(x1,x2)D,x3=z0}.

    The main work of this article investigates the continuous dependence of solutions to Eqs (1.1)–(1.4) on perturbation parameters and base data. Due to many practical constraints, it is very common for the base of the cylinder to experience minor disturbance. Therefore, studying the effects of these disturbances is essential. To this end, we assume that u and v are perturbed solutions of Eqs (1.1)–(1.4) on R(f), and then prove that the difference between the unperturbed solutions and the perturbed solutions satisfies a first-order differential inequality. By solving this inequality, we can obtain the continuous dependence of the solution.

    On the finite end D, we assume that the solutions to (1.1)–(1.4) satisfy

    u(t,x)=L11(t,x1,x2), v(t,x)=L12(t,x1,x2),t>0, x3=0, (x1,x2)D(0), (2.1)
    u(t,x)=L21(t,x1,x2), v(t,x)=L22(t,x1,x2),t>0, x3=f(x1,x2), (x1,x2)D(0). (2.2)

    In (2.1) and (2.2), the known functions Lij(i,j=1,2) satisfy the compatibility conditions on D.

    We let that H1(t,x) and H2(t,x) are specific functions who have the same boundary conditions as u and v, respectively. That is

    H1(t,x)=L21(t,x1,x2)exp{σ(x3f)}, H2(t,x)=L22(t,x1,x2)exp{σ(x3f)}, (2.3)

    where σ>0.

    We now derive some lemmas.

    Lemma 2.1. If L21,L22H1([0,)×D(f)), then

    t0exp{η1τ}[k1||u(τ)||2L2(R(f))+k2||v(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτd1(t),

    where

    d1(t)=t0exp{η1τ}[k1||H1||2L2(R(f))+k2||H2||2L2(R(f))]dτ+exp{η1t}[b1||H1(t)||2L2(R(f))+b2||H2(t)||2L2(R(f))]+12t0exp{η1τ}[b1η1||H1,τ(τ)||2L2(R(f))+b2η1||H2,τ(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ+12γt0exp{η1τ}||(H1H2)(τ)||2L2(R(f))dτ. (2.4)

    Proof. Using (1.1)–(1.4), we begin with

    t0R(f)exp{η1τ}[b1uτk1u+γ(uv)]udxdτ=0,t0R(f)exp{η1τ}[b2vτk2vγ(uv)]vdxdτ=0.

    We compute

    12exp{η1t}[b1||u(t)||2L2(R(f))+b2||v(t)||2L2(R(f))]+t0exp{η1τ}[b1η1||u(τ)||2L2(R(f))+b2η1||v(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ+t0exp{η1τ}[k1||u(τ)||2L2(R(f))+k2||v(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ+γt0exp{η1τ}||(uv)(τ)||2L2(R(f))dτ=t0D(f)exp{η1τ}[k1ux3u+k2vx3v]dAdτ. (2.5)

    On the other hand, we use (2.3) to compute

    t0D(f)exp{η1τ}[k1ux3u+k2vx3v]dAdτ=t0D(f)exp{η1τ}[k1ux3H1+k2vx3H2]dAdτ=t0R(f)exp{η1τ}[k1(uH1)+k2(vH2)dxdτ=t0R(f)exp{η1τ}[k1uH1+k2vH2]dxdτ+exp{η1t}R(f)[b1uH1+b2vH2]dx+η1t0R(f)exp{η1τ}[b1uH1,τ+b2vH2,τ]dxdτ+γt0R(f)exp{η1τ}(uv)(H1H2)dxdτF1+F2+F3+F4. (2.6)

    An application of the Schwarz inequality leads to

    F112t0exp{η1τ}[k1||u(τ)||2L2(R(f))+k2||v(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ+12t0exp{η1τ}[k1||H1||2L2(R(f))+k2||H2||2L2(R(f))]dτ, (2.7)
    F212exp{η1t}[b1||u(t)||2L2(R(f))+b2||v(t)||2L2(R(f))]+12exp{η1t}[b1||H1(t)||2L2(R(f))+b2||H2(t)||2L2(R(f))], (2.8)
    F3t0exp{η1τ}[b1η1||u(τ)||2L2(R(f))+b2η1||v(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ+14t0exp{η1τ}[b1η1||H1,τ(τ)||2L2(R(f))+b2η1||H2,τ(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ, (2.9)
    F4γt0exp{η1τ}||(uv)(τ)||2L2(R(f))dτ+14γt0exp{η1τ}||(H1H2)(τ)||2L2(R(f))dτ. (2.10)

    Inserting Eqs (2.7)–(2.10) into (2.6) and combining (2.5), it can be obtained

    t0exp{η1τ}[k1||u(τ)||2L2(R(f))+k2||v(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτt0exp{η1τ}[k1||H1||2L2(R(f))+k2||H2||2L2(R(f))]dτ+exp{η1t}[b1||H1(t)||2L2(R(f))+b2||H2(t)||2L2(R(f))]+12t0exp{η1τ}[b1η1||H1,τ(τ)||2L2(R(f))+b2η1||H2,τ(τ)||2L2(R(f))]dτ+12γt0exp{η1τ}||(H1H2)(τ)||2L2(R(f))dτ. (2.11)

    From (2.11), we can conclude that Lemma 2.1 holds.

    We not only need a prior bounds for v and v, but also for u and u. Since u and u are undisturbed solutions of Eqs (1.1)–(1.4), in Lemma 2.1 we only need to set f=0 and replace L21 and L22 with L11 and L12, respectively, and then we can obtain the a prior bounds for u and u.

    Lemma 2.2. If L11,L12H1([0,)×D), then

    t0exp{η1τ}[k1||u(τ)||L2(R)+k2||v(τ)||L2(R)]dτd2(t),

    where

    d2(t)=t0exp{η1τ}[k1||H3||2L2(R)+k2||H4||2L2(R)]dτ+exp{η1t}[b1||H3(t)||2L2(R)+b2||H4(t)||2L2(R)]+12t0exp{η1τ}[b1η1||H3,τ(τ)||2L2(R)+b2η1||H4,τ(τ)||2L2(R)]dτ+12γt0exp{η1τ}||(H3H4)(τ)||2L2(R)dτ

    and

    H3(t,x)=L11(t,x1,x2)exp{σx3}, H4(t,x)=L12(t,x1,x2)exp{σx3}.

    Remark 2.1. Lemmas 2.1 and 2.2 will provide a priori estimates for the proof of the lemmas in the next section.

    Let w and s represent the difference between the perturbed solutions and the unperturbed solutions, i.e.,

    w=uu, s=vv, (3.1)

    then w and s satisfy

    b1wt=k1wγ(ws), in R(ϵ)×{t>0}, (3.2)
    b2st=k2s+γ(ws), in R(ϵ)×{t>0}, (3.3)
    w=s=0, on D×{x3>ϵ}×{t>0}, (3.4)
    w=s=0, in R(ϵ)×{t=0}. (3.5)

    To obtain the continuous dependence of the solution on the perturbation parameter, we establish a new energy function

    V(t,x3)=t0[||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτ, x3ϵ. (3.6)

    Noting the definition of R(x3), we can obtain the derivative of V(t,x3) as follows:

    x3V(t,x3)=t0[||w(τ)||2L2(D(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(D(x3))]dτ.

    We introduce two auxiliary functions φ and ψ such that

    b1φτ+k1φ=w, b2ψτ+k2ψ=s, in R(x3),0<τ<t, (3.7)
    φ(τ,x1,x2,x3)=ψ(τ,x1,x2,x3)=0, on D×{x3},0<τ<t, (3.8)
    φ(τ,x1,x2,x3)=ψ(τ,x1,x2,x3)=0, (x1,x2)D,0<τ<t, (3.9)
    φ(t,x)=ψ(t,x)=0, in R(x3), (3.10)
    φ,φ,ψ,ψ0(uniformly in x1,x2,τ) as x3, (3.11)

    where x3>ϵ.

    Next, we will derive some necessary properties of the auxiliary functions, which will play a crucial role in proving the continuous dependence of the solutions.

    Lemma 3.1. If φ,ψH1([0,t]×R(x3)), then

    t0[b1||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+b2||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτa1V(t,x3), x3ϵ,

    where a1=max{b11,b12}.

    Proof. We begin with

    t0R(x3)φτ[b1φτ+k1φ+w]dxdτ=0,t0R(x3)ψτ[b2ψτ+k2ψ+s]dxdτ=0.

    Using the divergence theorem R(x3)Fds=R(x3)divFdx and (3.8)–(3.11), we have

    b1t0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ=12k1||φ(0)||2L2(R(x3))+t0R(x3)wφτdxdτ[t0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12, (3.12)

    and

    b2t0||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ[t0||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12. (3.13)

    Using the Schwarz inequality, (3.12) and (3.13), Lemma 3.1 can be obtained.

    Lemma 3.2. If φ,ψH1(R(x3)), then

    t0[k1||φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+k2||ψ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτa2V(t,x3),

    where a2=1λmax{k11,k12}.

    Proof. We begin with

    t0R(x3)φ[b1φτ+k1φ+w]dxdτ=0,t0R(x3)φ[b2ψτ+k2ψ+s]dxdτ=0.

    Using the divergence theorem and Lemma 2.2, we have

    k1t0||φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ=12b1||φ(0)||2L2(R(x3))+t0R(x3)wφdxdτ[t0||φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]121λ[t0||2φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12 (3.14)

    and

    k2t0||ψ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ1λ[t0||2ψ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12. (3.15)

    Using the following inequality

    ab+cd(a+c)(b+d), for  a,b,c,d>0, (3.16)

    the Young inequality and Lemma 3.1, we can have from (3.14) and (3.15)

    t0[k1||φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+k2||ψ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτ1λ{t0[k1||2φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+k2||2ψ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτt0[k11||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+k12||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτ}12. (3.17)

    From (3.17) we can obtain Lemma 3.2.

    Lemma 3.3. If φ,ψH1(R(x3)), then

    k1t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ+k2t0||ψx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτa3V(t,x3),

    where a3 is a positive constant.

    Proof. Letting δ be a positive constant. We compute

    t0R(x3)[φx3δφτ][b1φτ+k1φ+w]dxdτ=0, (3.18)
    t0R(x3)[ψx3δψτ][b2ψτ+k2ψ+s]dxdτ=0. (3.19)

    Using the divergence theorem and (3.8)–(3.10) in (3.18) and (3.19), we obtain

    12k1δ||φ(0)||2L2(R(x3))dτ+b1δt0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ+12k1t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ=t0R(x3)φx3φτdxdτ+t0R(x3)[φx3δφτ]wdxdτ. (3.20)

    Using the Schwarz inequality, we obtain

    t0R(x3)φx3φτdxdτ[t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12, (3.21)
    t0R(x3)φx3wdxdτ[t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12, (3.22)
    δt0R(x3)φτwdxdτδ[t0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12. (3.23)

    Inserting (3.21)–(3.23) into (3.20) and dropping the first two terms in the left of (3.20), we have

    12k1t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ[t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12+[t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12+δ[t0||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12. (3.24)

    Similar, we can also have from (3.19)

    12k2t0||ψx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ[t0||ψx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12+[t0||ψx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12+δ[t0||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτt0||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))dτ]12. (3.25)

    Using (3.16) and Lemmas 3.1 and 3.2, we obtain

    k1t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ+k2t0||ψx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ2a1a2{t0[b1||φx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+b2||ψx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτt0[k1||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+k2||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτ}12+2a2{t0[b1||φx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+b2||ψx3(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτt0[||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτ}12+2a1δ{t0[k1||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+k2||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτt0[||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3))]dτ}12a3V(t,x3), (3.26)

    where a3=2a21a22+2a22+2a21.

    In the next section, we will use Lemma 3.3 to derive the continuous dependence of the solutions.

    In this section, we first derive a bound for V(t,ϵ). To do this, we define

    u(t,x)=L11(t,x1,x2), v(t,x)=L12(t,x1,x2), ϵx30,(x1,x2)D,t[0,+), (4.1)
    u(t,x)=L21(t,x1,x2), v(t,x)=L22(t,x1,x2), ϵx3f(x1,x2),(x1,x2)D,t[0,+). (4.2)

    When ϵx3ϵ, we let

    w(t,x)=u(t,x)u(t,x), s(t,x)=v(t,x)v(t,x),(x1,x2)D,t[0,+). (4.3)

    In view of (3.1) and (4.3), using the triangle inequality, it can be obtained that

    k1t0R(ϵ)(wx3)2dxdτ+k2t0R(ϵ)(sx3)2dxdτt0R(ϵ)[k1(ux3)2+k2(vx3)2]dxdτ+t0R(ϵ)[k1(ux3)2+k2(vx3)2]dxdτ. (4.4)

    Using Lemmas 2.1 and 2.2, (4.1) and (4.2), from (4.4), we obtain

    k1t0R(ϵ)(wx3)2dxdτ+k2t0R(ϵ)(sx3)2dxdτt0R[k1(ux3)2+k2(vx3)2]dxdτ+t0R(f)[k1(ux3)2+k2(vx3)2]dxdτ.eη1t[d1(t)+d2(t)]d3(t). (4.5)

    Now, we write the main theorem as:

    Theorem 4.1. If L11,L12H1([0,)×R),L21,L22H1([0,)×R(f)) and t<π4a1γ, then

    V(t,x3)exp{d4(x3ϵ)}{32d4πmax{1k1,1k2}d3(t)ϵ+d5t0[||(L11L21)(τ)||2L2(D)+||(L12L22)(τ)||2L2(D)]dτ},x3ϵ

    holds, where d4=a13max{k1,k2}1 and d5=d4π2+2d4.

    Proof. Let x3ϵ be a fixed point on the coordinate axis x3. Using (3.7)–(3.11) and the divergence theorem, we can have

    V(x3,t)=t0R(x3)w[b1φτ+k1φ]dxdτt0R(x3)s[b2ψτ+k2ψ]dxdτ=t0R(x3)[b1φτw+b2ψτs]dxdτ+t0R(x3)[k1wφ+k2sψ]dxdτ+t0D(x3)[k1wφx3+k2sψx3]dAdτ=t0R(x3)[b1φτw+b2ψτs]dxdτt0R(x3)[k1wφ+k2sψ]dxdτ+t0D(x3)[k1wφx3+k2sψx3]dAdτ=t0R(x3)[b1φτw+b2ψτs]dxdτt0R(x3)[b1φwτ+b2ψsτ]dxdτ+t0D(x3)[k1wφx3+k2sψx3]dAdτγt0R(x3)(φψ)(ws)dxdτ. (4.6)

    In light of (1.4) and (3.10), it is clear that

    t0R(x3)[b1φτw+b1φwτ]dxdτ=0, t0R(x3)[b2ψτs+b2ψsτ]dxdτ=0. (4.7)

    A combination of the Hölder inequality, (3.16) and Lemma 3.3 leads to

    t0D(x3)[k1wφx3+k2sψx3]dAdτk1[t0||φx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτt0||w(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ]12+k2[t0||ψx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτt0||s(τ)||2L2(D(x3))dτ]12max{k1,k2}[t0(k1||φx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3))+k2||ψx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)))dτ]12[t0(||w(τ)||2L2(D(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(D(x3)))dτ]12a3max{k1,k2}V(t,x3)[x3V(t,x3)]12. (4.8)

    For the fourth term in the right of (4.6), we compute

    γt0R(x3)(φψ)(ws)dxdτγ[t0(||φ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+||ψ(τ)||2L2(R(x3)))dτt0(||w(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(R(x3)))dτ]12. (4.9)

    Using the inequality (see p182 in [19])

    10ϕ2dx4π210(ϕ)2dx, for ϕ(0)=0, (4.10)

    we have from (4.9)

    γt0R(x3)(φψ)(ws)dxdτγ2tπ[t0(||φτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3))+||ψτ(τ)||2L2(R(x3)))dτV(t,x3)]12γ2tπa1V(t,x3), (4.11)

    where we have also used Lemma 3.1. Combining (4.6), (4.7), (4.8) and (4.11) and choosing t<π4a1γ, we can have

    V(t,x3)1d4x3V(t,x3),x3>ϵ. (4.12)

    Integrating (4.12) from ϵ to x3, we have

    V(t,x3)V(t,ϵ)exp{d4(x3ϵ)},x3ϵ. (4.13)

    Equation (4.13) only indicates that the solutions to (1.1)–(1.4) decay exponentially as x3. This decay result is not rigorous because we do not yet know whether V(t,ϵ) depends on the perturbation parameter ϵ. Therefore, we derive the explicit bound of V(t,ϵ) in terms of ϵ and Lij(ij=1,2).

    After letting x3=ϵ in (4.12), we have

    V(ϵ,t)1d4t0[||w(τ)||2L2(D(ϵ))+||s(τ)||2L2(D(ϵ))]dAdτ=2d4t0ϵϵD(x3)[wwx3+ssx3]dxdτ+2d4t0[||(L11L21)(τ)||2L2(D)+||(L12L22)(τ)||2L2(D)]dτ2d4[t0||w(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτt0||wx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτ]12+2d4[t0||s(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτt0||sx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτ]12+2d4t0[||(L11L21)(τ)||2L2(D)+||(L12L22)(τ)||2L2(D)]dτ. (4.14)

    Using (4.10) again, we have

    t0||w(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτ16ϵ2π2t0||wx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτ+2ϵt0||(L11L21)(τ)||2L2(D)dτ, (4.15)
    t0||s(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτ16ϵ2π2t0||sx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])dτ+2ϵt0||(L12L22)(τ)||2L2(D)dτ. (4.16)

    Inserting (4.15) into (4.16) and combining the Schwarz inequality, we obtain

    V(ϵ,t)32d4πϵt0[||wx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])+||sx3(τ)||2L2(D(x3)×[ϵ,ϵ])]dτ+[d4π2+2d4]t0[||(L11L21)(τ)||2L2(D)+||(L12L22)(τ)||2L2(D)]dτ32d4πmax{1k1,1k2}ϵt0[k1||wx3(τ)||2L2(R(ϵ))+k2||sx3(τ)||2L2(R(ϵ))]dτ+[d4π2+2d4]t0[||(L11L21)(τ)||2L2(D)+||(L12L22)(τ)||2L2(D)]dτ. (4.17)

    In view of (4.5) and (4.13), from (4.17) we have Theorem 4.1.

    Remark 4.1. Theorem 4.1 indicates that V(t,x3) continuously depends on ϵ and the base data. That is, when ϵ approaches 0, then u(t,x3) and v(t,x3) approach 0. If ϵ=0, Theorem 4.1 is the Saint-Venant's principle type decay result.

    Remark 4.2. In any cross-section of R, the continuous dependence result can still be obtained. We compute

    t0[||w(τ)||2L2(D(x3))+||s(τ)||2L2(D(x3))]dτ=2t0R(x3)[wwx3+ssx3]dxdτ2V(x3)[t0[k1||wx3(τ)||2L2(R(ϵ))+k2||sx3(τ)||2L2(R(ϵ))]dτ]12. (4.18)

    Using (4.18) and Theorem 4.1, we can obtain the continuous dependence result.

    This article adopts the methods of the a prior estimates and energy estimate to obtain the continuous dependence of the solution on the base. This method can be further extended to other linear partial differential equation systems, such as pseudo-parabolic equation

    ut=Δu+δΔut,

    where δ is a positive constant. However, for nonlinear equations (e.g., the Darcy equations), due to the inability to control nonlinear terms and derive a prior bounds for nonlinear terms, Lemma 3.3 will be difficult to obtain. This is a difficult problem we need to solve next.

    The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.

    This work is supported by the Research Team Project of Guangzhou Huashang College (2021HSKT01).

    The author declares there is no conflict of interest.



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