Export file:


  • RIS(for EndNote,Reference Manager,ProCite)
  • BibTex
  • Text


  • Citation Only
  • Citation and Abstract

Parameter estimation of modeling schistosomiasis transmission for four provinces in China

1 School of Mathematical Sciences, Anhui University, Hefei, 230601, P.R.China
2 School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Anqing Normal University, Anqing, 246011, P.R.China

Special Issues: Transmission dynamics in infectious diseases

According to monitoring data of Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu Provinces, in this paper the transmission of schistosomiasis is studied based on Barbour’s mathematical model. The values of the basic reproduction number and key parameters are obtained with two methods. The first method is to calculate directly by using parameter values in references. The second one is to estimate parameter values by the methods of noise measurement and data smoothing and then to obtain new values of basic reproduction number. Comparing these two methods, we found the second method is good to fit the data. This parameter values can be used as reference values in other provinces. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to discuss the development trend of prevalence of humans and snails in each province. It is found that schistosomiasis in four provinces is expected to be eliminated with the improvement or maintenance of the standards of prevention and control. Furthermore, the time needed is different in the different four provinces.
  Article Metrics

Keywords schistosomiasis; Barbour’s model; basic reproduction number; parameter estimation

Citation: Long-xing Qi, Yanwu Tang, Shou-jing Tian. Parameter estimation of modeling schistosomiasis transmission for four provinces in China. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2019, 16(2): 1005-1020. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019047


  • 1. A. D. Barbour, Modelling the transmission of schistosomiasis: an introductory view, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 55 (1996), 135–143.
  • 2. Y. Y. Chen, S. X. Cai, J. B. Liu, X. B. Huang, Z. M. Su, Z. W. Tu, X. W. Shan, G. Li, Assessment of schistosomiasis endemic situation in national monitoring sites in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2010 (in Chinese), Chin. J. Schisto. Control, 26 (2014), 260–264.
  • 3. Y. Y. Chen, Spatial endemic situation and forecast for schistosomiasis in Hubei Province (in Chinese), Ph.D thesis Huadong University in China, 2014.
  • 4. Z. Chen, X. N. Gu, S. B. LV, Y. F. Li, W. S. Jiang, C. Q. Hang, J. Ge, D. D. Lin, Endemic situation of schistosomiasis in the national monitoring sites in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2014 (in Chinese). J. Trop. Dis. Parasitol. 13 (2015), 193–196.
  • 5. F. H. Gao, S. Q. Zhang, T. P. Wang, J. C. He, X. J. Xu, T. T. Li, G. H. Zhang, H. Wang, Endemic status of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province in 2015(in Chinese), J. Trop. Dis. Parasitol., 14 (2016), 137–140.
  • 6. F. H. Gao, S. Q. Zhang, T. P. Wang, J. C. He, X. J. Xu, T. T. Li, G. H. Zhang, H. Wang, Endemic status of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province in 2016(in Chinese), J. Trop. Dis. Parasitol., 15 (2017), 125–130.
  • 7. S. J. Gao, Y. Y. He, Y. J. Liu, G. J. Yang, X. N. Zhou, Field transmission intensity of Schistosoma japonicum measured by basic reproduction ratio from modified Barbour's model, Parasites Vector, 6 (2013), 141–151.
  • 8. X. N. Gu, C. Q. Hang, H. G. Chen, S. B. Lv, Z. Chen, J. Sun, The analysis of national monitoring results of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi in 2005 (in Chinese), J. Trop. Dis. Parasitology, 4 (2006), 202–204.
  • 9. Y. P. Li, Y. B. Zhou, Q. W. Jiang, Progress of research on mathematical model for transmission of schistosomiasis (in Chinese), Chin. J. Schisto. Control, 21 (2009), 568–571.
  • 10. D. D. Lin, X. N. Gu, Z. Chen, X. J. Zeng, H. Y. Liu, Z. J. Li, W. S. Jiang, S. B. Lv, Z. L. Gao, H. G, Chen, Assessment and analysis of risks of realizing schistosomiasis transmission control in Jiangxi Province (in Chinese), Chin. J. Schisto. Control, 25 (2013), 348–366.
  • 11. G. Macdonald, The dynamics of helminth infections, with special reference to schistosomes, Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg, 59 (1965), 489–506.
  • 12. L. X. Qi, J. A. Cui, Qualitative analysis for Barbour's schistosomiasis model with diffusion, J. Biomath., 27 (2012), 54–64.
  • 13. L. X. Qi, S. J. Tian, J. A. Cui, T. P. Wang, Multiple infection leads to backward bifurcation for a schistosomiasis model, Math. Biosci. Eng., in press.
  • 14. L. X. Qi, M. Xue, J. A. Cui, Q. Z. Wang, T. P. Wang, Schistosomiasis transmission model and its control in Anhui province, B. Math. Biol., 80 (2018), 2435–2451.
  • 15. J. O. Ramsay, G. Hooker, D. Campbell, J. Cao, Parameter estimation for differential equations: a generalized smoothing approach, J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 69 (2007), 741–796.
  • 16. L. D. Wang, The key to the control of schistosomiasis in China is good management of livestock manure (in Chinese), Chin. J. Epidemiol., 26 (2005), 929–930.
  • 17. L. D.Wang, H. G. Chen, J. G. Guo, X. J. Zeng, X. L. Hong, J. J. Xiong, X. H.Wu, X. H.Wang, L. Y.Wang, G. Xia, Y. Hao, D. P. Chin, X. N. Zhou, A strategy to control transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China, N. Engl. J. Med., 360 (2009), 121–128.
  • 18. T. P.Wang, F. Zhao, S. Q. Zhang, Z. J. Zhang, F. H. Gao, Y. B. Zhou, J. C. He, Q.W. Jiang, Spatial temporal clustering analysis of schistosomiasis in Anhui from 2000 to 2008 (in Chinese), J. Trop. Dis. Parasitol., 9 (2011), 127–130.
  • 19. K. C. Wu, Mathematical model and transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis and its application (in Chinese), China Trop. Med., 5 (2005), 837–843.
  • 20. K. Yang, G. J. Yang, Q. B. Hong, Y. X. Huang, L. P. Sun, Y. Gao, Y. Gao, L. H. Zhang, J. B. Yang, H. R. Zhu, Y. S. Liang, Monitoring of schistosomiasis in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005-2010 (in Chinese), Chin. J. Schisto. Control, 24 (2012), 527–532.
  • 21. S. Q. Zhang, T. P.Wang, J. H. Ge, C. G. Tao, G. H. Zhang, D. B. Lv, W. Z.Wu, Q. Z.Wang, Influence on the diffusion of snail by flooding in Anhui province (in Chinese), J. Trop. Dis. Parasitol., 2 (2004), 90–93.
  • 22. S. Q. Zhang, F. H. Gao, J. C. He, G. H. Zhang, H. Wang, T. P. Wang, Trend analysis of schistosomiasis endemic situation in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2014 (in Chinese), Chin. J. Schisto. Control, 27 (2015), 235–240.


Reader Comments

your name: *   your email: *  

© 2019 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licese (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Download full text in PDF

Export Citation

Copyright © AIMS Press All Rights Reserved