A data-driven mathematical model for evaluating the societal and economic burden of delayed access to innovative medicines

Foteini Theiakou; Catherine Kastanioti; Dimitris Rekkas; Nikolaos Kontodimopoulos; Dimitris Zavras; Foteini Theiakou; Catherine Kastanioti; Dimitris Rekkas; Nikolaos Kontodimopoulos; Dimitris Zavras

doi:10.3934/publichealth.2025036

AIMS Public Health

2025, Volume 12, Issue 3: 700-715. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2025036

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Research article Special Issues

A data-driven mathematical model for evaluating the societal and economic burden of delayed access to innovative medicines

1.
Department of Business Administration and Organizations, University of Peloponnese, Kalamata, Greece
2.
Department of Pharmacy, University of Athens, Athens, Greece
3.
Department of Economics and Sustainable Development, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece
4.
Department of Public Health Policy, University of West Attica, Athens, Greece

Received: 13 March 2025 Revised: 16 May 2025 Accepted: 28 May 2025 Published: 03 July 2025

Background
This study presents a novel mathematical framework to quantify the societal and economic impacts of delays in the reimbursement and distribution of innovative medicines.
Methods
Utilizing the concept of years of life lost (YLL) as a measure of premature mortality, the framework calculated the impact of delay on YLL, years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL), and cost of productivity loss (CPL). The proposed model incorporated mortality probabilities through the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model, examining how delays influence health outcomes, particularly for patients awaiting treatments like Icosapent ethyl.
Results
The findings reveal that extended delays significantly increase mortality and economic losses, emphasizing the need for timely access to high-value therapies. This mathematical framework not only emphasizes the adverse effects of delayed reimbursement on populations but also highlights the importance of high-quality data in accurately assessing these effects. By ensuring completeness, consistency, and reliability in healthcare data, the framework advocates for evidence-based policy decisions that promote equitable healthcare access and minimize disparities.
Conclusions
The present study underscores the importance of efficient pharmaceutical policymaking in maximizing the societal benefits of innovative treatments, ensuring that both health outcomes and economic sustainability are prioritized in healthcare systems.
- pharmaceutical policy,
- innovative medicines,
- social loss,
- reimbursement delays,
- mathematical model,
- data-quality
Citation: Foteini Theiakou, Catherine Kastanioti, Dimitris Rekkas, Nikolaos Kontodimopoulos, Dimitris Zavras. A data-driven mathematical model for evaluating the societal and economic burden of delayed access to innovative medicines[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2025, 12(3): 700-715. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2025036

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Abstract

Background

This study presents a novel mathematical framework to quantify the societal and economic impacts of delays in the reimbursement and distribution of innovative medicines.

Methods

Utilizing the concept of years of life lost (YLL) as a measure of premature mortality, the framework calculated the impact of delay on YLL, years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL), and cost of productivity loss (CPL). The proposed model incorporated mortality probabilities through the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model, examining how delays influence health outcomes, particularly for patients awaiting treatments like Icosapent ethyl.

Results

The findings reveal that extended delays significantly increase mortality and economic losses, emphasizing the need for timely access to high-value therapies. This mathematical framework not only emphasizes the adverse effects of delayed reimbursement on populations but also highlights the importance of high-quality data in accurately assessing these effects. By ensuring completeness, consistency, and reliability in healthcare data, the framework advocates for evidence-based policy decisions that promote equitable healthcare access and minimize disparities.

Conclusions

The present study underscores the importance of efficient pharmaceutical policymaking in maximizing the societal benefits of innovative treatments, ensuring that both health outcomes and economic sustainability are prioritized in healthcare systems.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Dr. Isidoros Kougioumtzoglou and Dr. Panagiotis Rigopoulos at VIANEΧ for providing the necessary clinical and epidemiological data to populate our model.

Authors' contributions

Conceptualization, formal analysis, investigation, resources writing—original draft preparation, F.T.; methodology, validation, writing—review and editing, supervision, C.K.; conceptualization of the model, methodology, modeling, writing, D.Z.; review and editing, D.R.; writing, review and editing N.K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Conflict of interest

Dimitris Zavras is a guest editor of AIMS Public Health Special Issue. He was not involved in the editorial review or the decision to publish this article. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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