Research article Special Issues

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

  • Objectives 

    Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies.

    Methods 

    A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016–2030).

    Results 

    All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals.

    Conclusions 

    Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

    Citation: Aditya Subhash Khanna, Mert Edali, Jonathan Ozik, Nicholson Collier, Anna Hotton, Abigail Skwara, Babak Mahdavi Ardestani, Russell Brewer, Kayo Fujimoto, Nina Harawa, John A. Schneider. Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the 'Getting to Zero' strategy in Illinois, USA[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2021, 18(4): 3922-3938. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021196

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  • Objectives 

    Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies.

    Methods 

    A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016–2030).

    Results 

    All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals.

    Conclusions 

    Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.



    A surface that arises when a curve α(u) is translated over another curve β(v) is called a translation surface. A translation surface is defined to be the sum of two curves α(u) and β(v), which are called generating curves. Therefore, translation surfaces are made up of quadrilateral, that is, four sided, facets. Because of this property, translation surfaces are used in architecture to design and construct free-form glass roofing structures. A translation surface in Euclidean 3-space by two curves in orthogonal planes, is given in [2,3] as a graph of the function z(u,v)=f(u)+g(v), such that f(u) and g(v) are smooth functions defined on an interval of R.

    The translation surfaces in E3 studied by H. F. Scherk [1] are obtained as a graph of the sum z(u,v)=f(u)+g(v), and where he proved that the only minimal translation surfaces are the those denoted by

    z(u,v)=1alog|cos(au)cos(av)|=1alog|cos(au)|1alog|cos(av)|,

    where a is a non-zero constant. These surfaces[12,13] are nowadays said to be Scherk's minimal surfaces.

    Constant mean curvature and constant Gaussian curvature surfaces have been the main problem for the geometers for a long time. Translation surfaces with constant mean curvature, in particular, zero mean curvature, in the Euclidean space and the Minkowski space are stated in [7]. Lone and Karacan yield categorization of dual translation surface, which has constant dual isotropic mean curvature or constant dual isotropic Gaussian curvature [8]. Dillen, Goemans and Woestyne obtained a categorization of translation surfaces in the 3-dimensional Euclidean and Minkowski space such that the Weingarten circumstance is satisfying [5].

    Sipus and Divjak [11] explained translation surfaces in the Galilean space having constant Gaussian and mean curvatures together with translation Weingarten surfaces. Yoon searched coordinate finite type translation surfaces in G3 and explained some examples of new classes of translation surfaces [12]. He also studied a translation surface in G3 with a log-linear density and classified such a surface with vanishing weighted mean curvature[13].

    LN-surfaces, which were taken into account in [6] with enough elasticity to model smooth surfaces. Peternell and Odehnal generalized the idea of LN-surfaces to R4 [9]. Bulca calculated the Gaussian, normal and mean curvatures of LN- surfaces in E4. Further, she pointed out the flat and minimal points of the surfaces in [3]. Sampoli, Peternell and Jüttler indicate that even the convolution surface of an LN-surface and any rational surface admits rational parametrization [10]. Moreover, LN and LCN translation surfaces have been characterized in 3-dimensional affine and Euclidean spaces in [14,15].

    In this study, the dual translation surfaces defined by z=f(u)+g(v), are considered in the three dimensional Galilean space G3.

    We emphasize that the Galilean space G3 is a Cayley-Klein space associated with a 3-dimensional projective space P(R3) with the absolute figure. The reader is referred to [11,12] for more details of

    d(P1,P2)={|x2x1|      ,  if   x1x2(y2y1)2+(z2z1)2 ,  if   x1=x2.   (2.1)

    The group of motions of G3 is a six-parameter group given in affine coordinates by

    ¯x=a+x,¯y=b+cx+ycosθ+zsinθ,¯z=d+exysinθ+zcosθ,

    with respect to the absolute figure, there are two types of lines in the Galilean space - isotropic lines which intersect the absolute line f and non-isotropic lines which do not. A plane is called Euclidean if it includes f, whereas it is said isotropic. In the given affine coordinates, isotropic vectors are of the form (0,y,z), but Euclidean planes are of the form x=k,k R. The induced geometry of a Euclidean plane is Euclidean, and of an isotropic plane isotropic (i.e., 2-dimensional Galilean or flag-geometry).

    A Cr-surface S, r1, immersed in the Galilean space, Ψ :UG3,UR2, Ψ(u,v)=(x(u,v),y(u,v),z(u,v)) has the following first fundamental form

    I=(g1du+g2dv)2+ϵ(h11du2+2h12dudv+h22dv2),

    where the symbols gi=xi, hij=Ψi.Ψj stand for derivatives of the first coordinate function x(u,v) with respect to u,v and for the Euclidean scalar product of the projections Ψk of vectors Ψk onto the yz -plane, respectively. Furthermore,

    ϵ={0,   ifdirectiondu:dvisnonisotropic,1,         ifdirectiondu:dvisisotropic.

    At every point of a surface, there exists a unique isotropic direction defined by g1du+g2dv=0. In that direction, the arc length is measured by

    ds2=h11du2+2h12dudv+h22dv2=h11g222h12g1g2+h22g21g21=W2g21dv2,

    where g10. A surface is called admissible if it has no Euclidean tangent planes. Therefore, for an admissible surface either g10 or g20 holds. The Gaussian curvature K and mean curvature H are Cr2 functions, r2, defined by

    K=LNM2W2, H=g22L2g1g2M+g21N2W2,

    where

    Lij=x1ΨijxijΨ1x1U,  x1=g10.

    We will use Lij, i,j=1,2, for L, M, N. The vector U defines a normal vector to a surface and given by

    U=1W(0,x1z2x2z1,x2y1x1y2),

    where W2=(x2Ψ1x1Ψ2)2 [11]. It is well known that in terms of local coordinates {u,v} of S, the Laplacian operator ΔII according to the second fundamental form on S is defined by [4]

    ΔIIΨ=1LNM2[u(NΨuMΨvLNM2)v(MΨuLΨvLNM2)]. (2.2)

    Consider a surface in G3 as the graph of a function z=h(u,v). We will consider translation surfaces of Type 1 that are obtained by translating two planar curves. Translation surfaces of Type 1 in the Galilean 3-space can be locally represented by

    z=f(u)+g(v), (2.3)

    which yields the parametrization

    Ψ(u,v)=(u,v,f(u)+g(v)). (2.4)

    One translated curve is a non-isotropic curve in the plane y=0 and given as

    α(u)=(u,0,f(u)),

    and the other is an isotropic curve in the plane x=0 and it is expressed as

    β(v)=(0,v,g(v)).

    Let S be a Monge patch parametrized by z=h(u,v), then the surface

    Ψ=(zu,zv,z+uzu+vzv), (2.5)

    is called a dual surface of  S in G3 and the normal vector of S is given by

    U=(±(zuuzvv(zuv)2)W)(0,v,1). (2.6)

    The Gaussian curvature of the dual surface is

    K=1(zuuzvv(zuv)2)(1+v2)2. (2.7)

    Definition 1. A surface S in G3 is said to be Weingarten surface if and only if there exists a non-trivial functional relation Φ(K,H)=0 between the Gaussian curvature and mean curvature of S. The condition Φ(K,H)=0 is equivalent to the vanishing of the corresponding Jacobian determinant, i.e., |(K,H)(u,v)|=0. A linear Weingarten surface in Galilean 3-space is a surface where there exists a relation aK+bH=c for some non-zero real numbers a,b,c [5,10].

    In [11], Sipus and Divjak analyzed the translation surface of Type 1, which has the constant Gaussian and mean curvatures in the Galilean 3-space G3 and they showed the following theorems:

    Theorem 1. If S is a translation surface of Type 1 of constant Gaussian curvature in the Galilean 3-space, then S is congruent to a particular surface with

    f(x)=ax2+bx+c,

    a,b,cR, and

    k(u)=12Au2+Bu+C,h(u)=Au+BA1(Au+B)2+12Aarcsin(Au+B)+C1

    for A,B,C,C1R, where K=f(x)k(u) and h2+k2=1.

    Theorem 2. If S is a translation surface of Type 1 of constant mean curvature H 0 in the Galilean 3-space, then S is congruent to a surface

    z=f(u)12H1(2Hv+c1)2+c2,

    where c1,c2R.

    The main aim of this section is to give a classification of dual translation surfaces with constant Gaussian and mean curvatures in the Galilean 3-space. Let S  be a dual translation surface. Using (2.3) and (2.5), we can define dual translation surfaces as

    Ψ(u,v)=(f(u),g(v),uf(u)+vg(v)f(u)g(v)). (3.1)

    The unit normal vector field U of the surface (3.1) is

    U=11+v2(0,v,1). (3.2)

    By a straightforward computation, the Gaussian and mean curvatures of the dual translation surface are given by

    K=1fg(1+v2)2,H=12(1+v2)32g, (3.3)

    where f,g0. Thus we have the following result.

    Corollary 1. If S is a dual translation surface in the Galilean 3-space, then there are no flat and minimal dual translation surfaces.

    Proof. The proof is obvious by Eq (3.3).

    Theorem 3. Let S be a dual translation surface which has constant Gaussian curvature in G3. Then it is congruent to an open part of the surface (3.1) with

     z=f(u)+(c1+c2v+c32varctanv).

    Proof. Dual translation surface with constant curvature K0 is described by the ordinary differential equation

    K0fg(1+v2)21=0, K0R. (3.4)

    By partial differentiation of the previous expression with respect to v, we get

    f(4v(1+v2)g+(1+v2)2g)=0.

    Therefore either f=0 or

    4v(1+v2)g+(1+v2)2g=0. (3.5)

    If f=0, then we have a contradiction. The general solution of (3.5) is given by

    g(v)=c1+c2v+c32varctanv,

    where ciR. Therefore, S is determined by

     z=f(u)+(c1+c2v+c32varctanv), (3.6)

    where f0 (see Figure 1).

    Figure 1.  z=cosu+(c1+c2v+c32varctanv).

    Theorem 4. Let S be a dual translation surface which has constant mean curvature in G3. Then it is congruent to an open part of the surface (3.1) with

     z=f(u)+(c1+c2v1+v22H0).

    Proof. We suppose that dual translation surface has constant mean curvature. Then we obtain

    2(1+v2)32gH01=0, H0R. (3.7)

    After solving (3.7), we get

    g(v)=c1+c2v1+v22H0.

    Therefore S is determined by

     z=f(u)+(c1+c2v1+v22H0), (3.8)

    where ciR (see Figure 2).

    Figure 2.  z=cosu+(c1+c2v1+v22H0).

    Theorem 5. Let S be a Weingarten dual translation surface in G3. Then it is congruent to an open part of the surface (3.1) with

     z=(c1+c2u+c3u2)+g(v),

    or

     z=f(u)+(c4+c5v+c61+v2).

    Proof. The condition (K,H)(u,v)=0 must be satisfied for the Weingarten surface S, it leads to KuHvKvHu=0. Since the mean curvature Hv is a function of v only, the previous equation reduces KuHv=0. Therefore, either Ku =0 or Hv=0. The first condition Ku =0 describes that a dual translation surface satisfies

    f(1+v2)2f2g=0.

    Therefore f =0 which implies

    f(u)=c1+c2u+c3u2.

    If the second condition Hv=0, then we have

    3vg+(1+v2)g2(1+v2)52g2=0,

    and

    g(v)=c4+c5v+c61+v2,

    where ciR. Thus S is determined by either

     z=(c1+c2u+c3u2)+g(v), (3.9)

    see Figure 3,

    Figure 3.  z=cosv+(c1+c2u+c3u2).

    or

     z=f(u)+(c4+c5v+c61+v2), (3.10)

    see Figure 4.

    Figure 4.  z=eu+(c4+c5v+c61+v2).

    Theorem 6. Let S be a linear Weingarten dual translation surface satisfying aK+bH=c, where a,b,c are real constants. Then S is congruent to (3.1) with

    z=c1+c2u+m2u2+c3+c4v+bm1+v2+av arctanv2cm.

    Proof. Let us consider surface with a0,b0. A dual translation surface is linear Weingarten if and only if

    2a1+v2+f(bbv22cg(1+v2)(1+2v2+v4))=0, (3.11)

    which can be written as

    f=2a1+v2(bbv22cg(1+v2)(1+2v2+v4))=m,

    where mR. Therefore, we get

    f(u)=c1+c2u+m2u2,g(v)=c3+c4v+bm1+v2+av arctanv2cm, (3.12)

    where ci,mR and they satisfy the functional relationship aK+bH=c for any constants a,b,c, (see Figure 5).

    Figure 5.  z=c1+c2u+m2u2+c3+c4v+bm1+v2+av arctanv2cm.

    Theorem 7. Let S be a dual translation surface given by (3.1) in the three dimensional Galilean space G3. Then there is no surface S satisfies the condition ΔIIΨ=λiΨi, where λiR, i=1,2,3.

    Proof. We classify dual translation surfaces in G3 satisfying the equation

    ΔIIΨ=λixi, (3.13)

    where λiR, i=1,2,3 and

    ΔIIΨ=(ΔIIΨ1,ΔIIΨ2,ΔIIΨ3). (3.14)

    By a straightforward computation, using Eq (2.2), the Laplacian operator on S turns out to be

    ΔIIΨ=(1+v2f2f,1+v2g2g,21+v2+u1+v2f2f+v1+v2g2g). (3.15)

    So Eq (3.13) by means of (3.15) gives the following system of ordinary differential equations

    1+v2f2f=λ1f, (3.16)
    1+v2g2g=λ2g, (3.17)
    21+v2+u1+v2f2f+v1+v2g2g=λ3(uf(u)+vg(v)f(u)g(v)), (3.18)

    where λi R. On combining Eqs (3.16)–(3.18), we have

    21+v2+λ1uf+vλ2g=λ3(uf+vgfg), (3.19)

    which can be written as

    λ1ufλ3(uf+f)=m,λ3(vgg)λ2vg21+v2=m, (3.20)

    where λi,m R. If {λ1,λ2,λ3}={0,0,0}, hence we have a contradiction. In the cases {λ1,λ20,λ30}, there are no analytical solutions for the function g(v). We discuss three cases with respect to constants λ1,λ2,λ3. We summarized the solutions of (3.20) in the following:

    λ10,λ2=0,λ30{f(u)=mλ3+c1(u(λ1λ3))λ3λ1λ3g(v)=c2vλ3m21+v2+2varcsinvλ3},λ10,λ20,λ3=0{f(u)=c1+mln|u|λ1g(v)=c1λ221+v2(2+m)ln|v|+2ln|1+1+v2|λ2},λ1=0,λ2=0,λ30{f(u)=c1u+mλ3g(v)=c2vλ3m21+v2+2varcsinvλ3},

    for some constants ci0 and λi0. In the third row, we have a contradiction for the function f(u), because substituting the first and second rows into (3.14)–(3.16), respectively we can easily see that they do not satisfy these equations.

    Theorem 8. The dual translation surface H2K =0 is locally a generalized umbilical surface and it can be stated to be a surface (3.1) by

    z=c1+c2u+m2u2+c3+c4v+14m(v arctanv12ln|1+v2|).

    Proof. Next, we aim to classify the dual translation surfaces given by (3.1) in G3 that satisfy

    H2K =0. By considering Eq (3.3), we have

    f4g4v2g2(1+v2)3fg2=0. (3.21)

    We can rewrite (3.21) as

    f4g4v2g=0,

    which implies

    f=4g+4v2g=m.

    Solving this, we obtain

    f(u)=c1+c2u+m2u2,g(v)=c3+c4v+14m(v arctanv12ln|1+v2|), (3.22)

    where m,ci R (see Figure 6).

    Figure 6.  z=c1+c2u+m2u2+c3+c4v+14m(v arctanv12ln|1+v2|).

    A rational surface S in R3 is called LN-surface if its tangent planes admit the representation T(u,v)=ux+vy+z=h(u,v) with a rational function h(u,v)=f(u)+g(v). In the present study, we have defined these surfaces in Galilean 3-space and called these surfaces as dual translation surfaces.

    We also have calculated the Gaussian and mean curvatures of these surfaces. Further, we have pointed out the constant Gaussian and mean curvatures of these surfaces.

    We have discussed whether these surfaces satisfy the Laplacian operator with respect to the second fundamental form.

    The author states that she has no conflict of interests.



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