Theory article

Tumor–immune dynamics: stability, optimal control, and global sensitivity analysis

  • Published: 21 September 2026
  • MSC : 92C50, 93C10

  • Oncology is one of the most important fields in modern medicine. In this work, we aimed to model tumor–immune interactions using a system of ordinary differential equations. Our objective of this modeling was to help control tumor cell growth (with a carrying capacity that is a function of time) in the human body while determining an optimal treatment strategy. To achieve this goal, we first introduced our model and studied its main characteristics. We then investigated the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Afterward, we analyzed the stability of the system. Next, we addressed the optimal control problem theoretically using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle and, numerically using direct and indirect methods, implemented it in MATLAB. We also performed numerical simulations corresponding to different treatment scenarios. Finally, we studied the sensitivity of the model parameters by means of Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) to identify the most influential ones.

    Citation: Nacima Moussouni, Louiza Dehbi, Fares Yazid, Hicham Saber, Abdelkader Moumen, Khaled Aldwoah, Mohamed Bouye. Tumor–immune dynamics: stability, optimal control, and global sensitivity analysis[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2026, 11(9): 30782-30814. doi: 10.3934/math.20261219

    Related Papers:

  • Oncology is one of the most important fields in modern medicine. In this work, we aimed to model tumor–immune interactions using a system of ordinary differential equations. Our objective of this modeling was to help control tumor cell growth (with a carrying capacity that is a function of time) in the human body while determining an optimal treatment strategy. To achieve this goal, we first introduced our model and studied its main characteristics. We then investigated the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Afterward, we analyzed the stability of the system. Next, we addressed the optimal control problem theoretically using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle and, numerically using direct and indirect methods, implemented it in MATLAB. We also performed numerical simulations corresponding to different treatment scenarios. Finally, we studied the sensitivity of the model parameters by means of Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) to identify the most influential ones.



    加载中


    [1] L. Pecorino, Molecular biology of cancer: mechanisms, targets, and therapeutics, 5 Eds., Oxford University Press, 2021.
    [2] R. A. Weinberg, The biology of cancer, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203852569
    [3] P. Essunger, A. S. Perelson, Modeling HIV infection of CD4+ T-cell subpopulations, J. Theor. Biol., 170 (1994), 367–391. http://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.1994.1199 doi: 10.1006/jtbi.1994.1199
    [4] H. Moore, N. K. Li, A mathematical model for chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) and T-cell interaction, J. Theor. Biol., 227 (2004), 513–523. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.024 doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2003.11.024
    [5] A. M. D. Clotilda, G. V. R. K. Vithanage, D. D. Lakshika, A mathematical model for cancer treatment using chemotherapy and immunotherapy under mass-action kinetics, Molecular Sciences and Applications, 4 (2024), 150–161. http://doi.org/10.37394/232023.2024.4.15 doi: 10.37394/232023.2024.4.15
    [6] D. Lestari, E. R. Sari, H. Arifah, Dynamics of a mathematical model of cancer cells with chemotherapy, J. Phys.: Conf. Ser., 1320 (2019), 012026. http://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1320/1/012026 doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1320/1/012026
    [7] A. J. Lotka, Elements of physical biology, Baltimore: Williams & Wilkins, 1925.
    [8] V. Volterra, Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically, Nature, 118 (1926), 558–560. https://doi.org/10.1038/118558a0 doi: 10.1038/118558a0
    [9] H. Deng, F. Chen, Z. Zhu, Z. Li, Dynamic behaviors of a Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model incorporating predator cannibalism, Adv. Differ. Equ., 2019 (2019), 359. http://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-019-2289-8 doi: 10.1186/s13662-019-2289-8
    [10] M. Swailem, U. C. Täuber, Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model with periodically varying carrying capacity, Phys. Rev. E, 107 (2023), 064144. http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.107.064144 doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.107.064144
    [11] N. O. Nweze, N. M. Offiong, M. U. Adehi, S. E. Chaku, S. Abdullahi, Modeling of species interaction in a habitat using Lotka–Volterra type systems, IOSR Journal of Mathematics, 10 (2014), 45–54. http://doi.org/10.9790/5728-10444554 doi: 10.9790/5728-10444554
    [12] M. J. Uddin, M. M. Khan, I. M. Alsulami, A. Alsulami, Complex dynamics of a discretized Rosenzweig–MacArthur prey–predator model with fear effect and prey refuge, AIMS Math., 10 (2025), 14629–14656. http://doi.org/10.3934/math.2025659 doi: 10.3934/math.2025659
    [13] B. Xie, Impact of fear and Allee effect on a Holling type Ⅱ prey–predator model, Adv. Differ. Equ., 2021 (2021), 464. http://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03592-6 doi: 10.1186/s13662-021-03592-6
    [14] M. W. Yasin, N. Ahmed, J. Saeed, A. Raza, M. Rafiq, H. Ahmad, et al., Numerical study of a reaction–diffusion prey–predator model with Holling Ⅱ functional response under noisy environment, J. Nonlinear Math. Phys., 31 (2024), 68. http://doi.org/10.1007/s44198-024-00238-5 doi: 10.1007/s44198-024-00238-5
    [15] J. Wang, L. Pan, Qualitative analysis of a harvested predator–prey system with Holling type Ⅲ functional response incorporating prey refuge, Adv. Differ. Equ., 2012 (2012), 96. http://doi.org/10.1186/1687-1847-2012-96 doi: 10.1186/1687-1847-2012-96
    [16] Q. Jiang, J. Wang, Qualitative analysis of a harvested predator–prey system with Holling type Ⅲ functional response, Adv. Differ. Equ., 2013 (2013), 249. http://doi.org/10.1186/1687-1847-2013-249 doi: 10.1186/1687-1847-2013-249
    [17] F. Munteanu, Jacobi stability of the Rosenzweig–MacArthur predator–prey system via KCC geometric theory, Symmetry, 14 (2022), 1815. http://doi.org/10.3390/sym14091815 doi: 10.3390/sym14091815
    [18] L. Pontryagin, Mathematical theory of optimal processes, London: Routledge, 1987. http://doi.org/10.1201/9780203749319
    [19] N. Moussouni, M. Aliane, L. Dehbi, Optimal control: prey and predator optimization in two- and three-species cases, Int. J. Dyn. Control, 13 (2025), 228. http://doi.org/10.1007/s40435-025-01729-z doi: 10.1007/s40435-025-01729-z
    [20] A. J. Abougarair, M. Bakouri, A. Alduraywish, O. G. Mrehel, A. Alqahtani, T. Alqahtani, et al., Optimizing cancer treatment using optimal control theory, AIMS Math., 9 (2024), 31740–31769. http://doi.org/10.3934/math.20241526 doi: 10.3934/math.20241526
    [21] A. Das, K. Dehingia, H. K. Sharmah, C. Park, J. R. Lee, K. Sadri, et al., Optimal control of effector–tumor–normal cell dynamics in the presence of adoptive immunotherapy, AIMS Math., 6 (2021), 9813–9834. http://doi.org/10.3934/math.2021570 doi: 10.3934/math.2021570
    [22] L. Huang, J. Wang, J. Li, T. Ma, Analysis of rumor spreading with different usage ranges in a multilingual environment, AIMS Math., 9 (2024), 24018–24038. http://doi.org/10.3934/math.20241168 doi: 10.3934/math.20241168
    [23] K. Zhang, Y. Ji, Q. Pan, Y. Wei, Y. Ye, H. Liu, Sensitivity analysis and optimal treatment control for a mathematical model of human papillomavirus infection, AIMS Math., 5 (2020), 2646–2670. http://doi.org/10.3934/math.2020172 doi: 10.3934/math.2020172
    [24] P. Hahnfeldt, D. Panigrahy, J. Folkman, L. Hlatky, Tumor development under angiogenic signaling: a dynamical theory of tumor growth, treatment response, and postvascular dormancy, Cancer Res., 59 (1999), 4770–4775.
    [25] N. G. Laleh, C. M. L. Loeffler, J. Grajek, K. Stanková, A. T. Pearson, H. S. Muti, et al., Classical mathematical models for prediction of response to chemotherapy and immunotherapy, PLoS Comput. Biol., 18 (2022), e1009822. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009822 doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009822
    [26] G. Lorenzo, D. A. Hormuth II, C. Wu, G. Pash, A. Chaudhuri, E. A. B. F. Lima, et al., Validating the predictions of mathematical models describing tumor growth and treatment response, arXiv: 2502.19333. http://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2502.19333
    [27] V. A. Kuznetsov, I. A. Makalkin, M. A. Taylor, A. S. Perelson, Nonlinear dynamics of immunogenic tumors: parameter estimation and global bifurcation analysis, Bull. Math. Biol., 56 (1994), 295–321. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0092-8240(05)80260-5 doi: 10.1016/S0092-8240(05)80260-5
    [28] L. G. de Pillis, A. Radunskaya, The dynamics of an optimally controlled tumor model: a case study, Math. Comput. Model., 37 (2003), 1221–1244. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-7177(03)00133-X doi: 10.1016/S0895-7177(03)00133-X
    [29] R. Stupp, W. P. Mason, M. J. van den Bent, M. Weller, B. Fisher, M. J.B. Taphoorn, et al., Radiotherapy plus concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide for glioblastoma, New Engl. J. Med., 352 (2005), 987–996. http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa043330 doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa043330
    [30] S. Marino, I. B. Hogue, C. J. Ray, D. E. Kirschner, A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology, J. Theor. Biol., 254 (2008), 178–196. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011 doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2026 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Metrics

Article views(55) PDF downloads(8) Cited by(0)

Article outline

Figures and Tables

Figures(15)  /  Tables(2)

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog