Search Advanced

AIMS Mathematics

2023, Volume 8, Issue 5: 10468-10485. doi: 10.3934/math.2023531
Previous Article Next Article
Research article Special Issues

The impact of population aging on economic growth: a case study on China

  • 1.
    Business School, Hunan Institute of Technology, Hengyang 421000, China
  • 2.
    School of Finance and Statistics, Hunan University, Changsha 410079, China
  • 3.
    Party School of the CPC Beihai Municipal Committee, Beihai 536002, China
  • 4.
    Economics and Finance Group, Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3DE, UK
  • Received: 10 January 2023 Revised: 20 February 2023 Accepted: 21 February 2023 Published: 01 March 2023

  • MSC : 62J05

  • The impact of population aging on economic growth is a very important issue in the process of population structure change. This paper first proposes research hypotheses based on a systematic literature review and theoretical analysis of the negative and positive effects of population aging on economic growth. Then, based on the data of 30 provinces in the Chinese Mainland from 2000 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of population aging on economic growth and its impact mechanism using a static panel data model, a dynamic panel data model and a mediating effect model. Our empirical analysis leads to the following conclusions. First, population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. Second, the industrial structure upgrading plays a mediating role in the process of population aging affecting economic growth; that is, population aging inhibits economic growth by affecting the overall upgrading of the industrial structure as well as the industrial rationalization and optimization. Last, some policy implications are proposed based on the research conclusions.

    Citation: Yue Liu, Liming Chen, Liangting Lv, Pierre Failler. The impact of population aging on economic growth: a case study on China[J]. AIMS Mathematics, 2023, 8(5): 10468-10485. doi: 10.3934/math.2023531

    Related Papers:

  • The impact of population aging on economic growth is a very important issue in the process of population structure change. This paper first proposes research hypotheses based on a systematic literature review and theoretical analysis of the negative and positive effects of population aging on economic growth. Then, based on the data of 30 provinces in the Chinese Mainland from 2000 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of population aging on economic growth and its impact mechanism using a static panel data model, a dynamic panel data model and a mediating effect model. Our empirical analysis leads to the following conclusions. First, population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. Second, the industrial structure upgrading plays a mediating role in the process of population aging affecting economic growth; that is, population aging inhibits economic growth by affecting the overall upgrading of the industrial structure as well as the industrial rationalization and optimization. Last, some policy implications are proposed based on the research conclusions.


    加载中


    [1] E. Kim, G. J. D. Hewings, C. Lee, Impact of educational investments on economic losses from population ageing using an interregional CGE-population model, Econ. Model., 54 (2016), 126–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.015 doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.015
    [2] F. Lancia, G. Prarolo, A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth, J. Popul. Econ., 25 (2012), 989–1018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-011-0364-x doi: 10.1007/s00148-011-0364-x
    [3] Y. Su, Z. Li, C. Yang, Spatial interaction spillover effects between digital financial technology and urban ecological efficiency in China: an empirical study based on spatial simultaneous equations, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 18 (2021), 8535. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18168535 doi: 10.3390/ijerph18168535
    [4] Y. Liu, P. Failler, Z. Liu, Impact of environmental regulations on energy efficiency: a case study of China's air pollution prevention and control action plan, Sustainability, 14 (2022), 3168. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063168 doi: 10.3390/su14063168
    [5] Z. Li, G. Liao, K. Albitar, Does corporate environmental responsibility engagement affect firm value? The mediating role of corporate innovation, Bus. Strateg. Environ., 29 (2020), 1045–1055. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.2416 doi: 10.1002/bse.2416
    [6] C. Y. Horioka, Aging and saving in Asia, Pac. Econ. Rev., 15 (2010), 46–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00489.x doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00489.x
    [7] Z. H. Li, J. H. Zhu, J. J. He, The effects of digital financial inclusion on innovation and entrepreneurship: a network perspective, Electron. Res. Arch., 30 (2022), 4697–4715. https://doi.org/10.3934/era.2022238 doi: 10.3934/era.2022238
    [8] M. B. Mimi, Md. Ahasan Ul Haque, Md. Golam Kibria, Does human capital investment influence unemployment rate in Bangladesh: a fresh analysis, National Accounting Review, 4 (2022), 273–286. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2022016 doi: 10.3934/NAR.2022016
    [9] F. Sardo, Z. Serrasqueiro, Intellectual capital and high-tech firms' financing choices in the European context: a panel data analysis, Quant. Financ. Econ., 5 (2021), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2021001 doi: 10.3934/QFE.2021001
    [10] M. Gonzalez-Eiras, D. Niepelt, Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth, Eur. Econ. Rev., 56 (2012), 97–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.05.007 doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.05.007
    [11] J.-M. Le Page, Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data, National Accounting Review, 4 (2022), 135–146. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2022008 doi: 10.3934/NAR.2022008
    [12] Y. Y. Huang, Q. Guo, M. X. Xiao, The unbalanced development and trends of China's regional tourism, National Accounting Review, 3 (2021), 69–85. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2021003 doi: 10.3934/NAR.2021003
    [13] Z. Li, H. Chen, B. Mo, Can digital finance promote urban innovation? Evidence from China, Borsa Istanbul Rev., in press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.10.006
    [14] Y. Liu, P. Failler, Y. Ding, Enterprise financialization and technological innovation: mechanism and heterogeneity, PLoS ONE, 17 (2022), e0275461. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275461 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275461
    [15] L. Q. Zhao, Z. Y. Han, The research of economic development under the background of population aging in China, (Chinese), On Economic Problems, 2015, 40–44.
    [16] F. Gong, Z. Wang, J. Yu, Aging population, generational balance, and public welfare expenditure, Economic Research Journal, 54 (2019), 103–119.
    [17] M. Fougere, S. Harvey, J. Mercenier, M. Mérette, Population ageing, time allocation and human capital: a general equilibrium analysis for Canada, Econ. Model., 26 (2009), 30–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2008.05.007 doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2008.05.007
    [18] Z. Li, C. Yang, Z. Huang, How does the fintech sector react to signals from central bank digital currencies?, Financ. Res. Lett., 50 (2022), 103308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103308 doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103308
    [19] S. Y. Ren, H. T. Wu, Path to green development: the role environmental regulation and labor skill premium on green total factor energy efficiency, Green Finance, 4 (2022), 387–410. https://doi.org/10.3934/GF.2022019 doi: 10.3934/GF.2022019
    [20] Y. Liu, Z. Li, M. Xu, The influential factors of financial cycle spillover: evidence from China, Emerg. Mark. Financ. Tr., 56 (2020), 1336–1350. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2019.1658076 doi: 10.1080/1540496x.2019.1658076
    [21] I. Semenenko, Y. Bilous, R. Halhash, The compliance of the regional development strategies and funding with the sustainable development concept: the case of Ukraine, Green Finance, 4 (2022), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.3934/GF.2022008 doi: 10.3934/GF.2022008
    [22] D. Qiu, D. J. Li, Comments on the "SSF Report" from the perspective of economic statistics, Green Finance, 3 (2021), 403–463. https://doi.org/10.3934/GF.2021020 doi: 10.3934/GF.2021020
    [23] G. K. Liao, P. Hou, X. Shen, K. Albitar, The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns: the role of corporate environmental responsibility engagement, Int. J. Financ. Econ., 26 (2021), 4386–4392. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2020 doi: 10.1002/ijfe.2020
    [24] J. P. Ansah, R. L. Eberlein, S. R. Love, M. A. Bautista, J. P. Thompson, R. Malhotra, et al., Implications of long-term care capacity response policies for an aging population: a simulation analysis, Health Policy, 116 (2014), 105–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2014.01.006 doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2014.01.006
    [25] Y. Liu, C. Ma, Z. Huang, Can the digital economy improve green total factor productivity? An empirical study based on Chinese urban data, Math. Biosci. Eng., 20 (2023), 6866–6893. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023296 doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023296
    [26] M. Gonzalez-Eiras, D. Niepelt, Aging, government budgets, retirement, and growth, Eur. Econ. Rev., 56 (2011), 97–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.05.007 doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.05.007
    [27] K. Davis, The theory of change and response in modern demographic history, Population Index, 9 (1963), 345–352. https://doi.org/10.2307/2732014 doi: 10.2307/2732014
    [28] D. J. van de Kaa, The idea of a second demographic transition in industrialized countries, Sixth Welfare Policy Seminar of the National Institute of Population and Social Security, 29 January 2022, 1–34.
    [29] B. Siliverstovs, K. A. Kholodilin, U. Thiessen, Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data, Econ. Syst., 35 (2011), 244–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.05.004 doi: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.05.004
    [30] M. Ahmed, M. Azam, S. Bekiros, S. M. Hina, Are output fluctuations transitory or permanent? New evidence from a novel Global Multi-scale Modeling approach, Quant. Financ. Econ., 5 (2021), 373–396. https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2021017 doi: 10.3934/QFE.2021017
    [31] P. Ilmakunnas, S. Ilmakunnas, Work force ageing and expanding service sector: a double burden on productivity?, Serv. Ind. J., 30 (2010), 2093–2110. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642060903199838 doi: 10.1080/02642060903199838
    [32] Z. Li, F. Zou, B. Mo, Does mandatory CSR disclosure affect enterprise total factor productivity?, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35 (2022), 4902–4921. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.2019596 doi: 10.1080/1331677X.2021.2019596
    [33] Z. Li, Z. Huang, Y. Su, New media environment, environmental regulation and corporate green technology innovation: evidence from China, Energ. Econ., 119 (2023), 106545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106545 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106545
    [34] D. Qiu, D. Li, Paradox in deviation measure and trap in method improvement—take international comparison as an example, Quant. Financ. Econ., 5 (2021), 591–603. https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2021026 doi: 10.3934/QFE.2021026
    [35] Z. Wen, L. Chang, H. Tai, H. Liu, Testing and application of the mediating effects, Acta Psychologica Sinica, 36 (2004), 614–620.
    [36] X. Qu, L. Liu, Impact of environmental decentralization on high-quality economic development, (Chinese), Statistical Research, 38 (2021), 16–29. https://doi.org/10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.03.002 doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.03.002
    [37] M. Xu, Y. Jiang, Can the China's industrial structure upgrading narrow the gap between urban and rural consumption?, The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 32 (2015), 3–21.
    [38] C. Gan, R. Zheng, D. Yu, An empirical study on the effects of industrial structure on economic growth and fluctuations in China, Economic Research Journal, 46 (2011), 4–16.
    [39] Z. Li, Z. Huang, H. Dong, The influential factors on outward foreign direct investment: evidence from the "The Belt and Road", Emerg. Mark. Financ. Tr., 55 (2019), 3211–3226. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2019.1569512 doi: 10.1080/1540496x.2019.1569512
    [40] Z. Li, B. Mo, H. Nie, Time and frequency dynamic connectedness between cryptocurrencies and financial assets in China, Int. Rev. Econ. Financ., 2023, in press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.01.015
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2023 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索
AIMS Mathematics
2.2 3

Metrics

Article views(2950) PDF downloads(403) Cited by(5)

Preview PDF
Download XML
Export Citation
Article outline

Figures and Tables

Tables(5)

Other Articles By Authors

Related pages

Tools

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog