Regional surface temperature changes in China caused by reduced air pollution and halogenated greenhouse gases

Kaiyun Zhang; Kejian Ding; Qing-Bin Lu; Kaiyun Zhang; Kejian Ding; Qing-Bin Lu

doi:10.3934/geosci.2025043

AIMS Geosciences

2025, Volume 11, Issue 4: 993-1006. doi: 10.3934/geosci.2025043

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Research article

Regional surface temperature changes in China caused by reduced air pollution and halogenated greenhouse gases

1.
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada
2.
School of Physical Science and engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, No.3 Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing 100044, P. R. China

Received: 23 July 2025 Revised: 10 October 2025 Accepted: 28 October 2025 Published: 28 November 2025

China's vast territory across a large latitude makes it an ideal country to investigate the mechanisms causing regional climate changes. Here, we showed that the temporal patterns in regional surface temperature are very different between low- and high latitude regions and between lightly and severely polluted regions, and that a reversal in surface temperature occurs earlier at higher-latitude regions. The latter is affected by recent drastic reductions in air pollution, which give rise to positive net radiative forcings that are the primary cause for China's regional temperature rises in the last decade. These regional climate patterns are in good agreement with both the cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion and the physics model of warming caused by halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs, mainly chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)). Using the IPCC-given globally averaged radiative forcings of aerosols and ozone, our calculated results by the CFC-warming physics model showed good agreement with the observed regional surface temperature changes since 1990, giving correlation coefficients of 0.70–0.96. In lightly polluted regions, such as northeast and northwest China (Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia), Hainan and Guangdong, our calculations reproduced close observations, while underestimating temperatures in highly polluted regions such as Beijing (Hebei), Fujian, and Jiangsu. This discrepancy is explained by larger reductions in post-2013 air pollution, causing greater positive radiative forcings. Our results revealed the mechanisms for regional and global climate change.
Citation: Kaiyun Zhang, Kejian Ding, Qing-Bin Lu. Regional surface temperature changes in China caused by reduced air pollution and halogenated greenhouse gases[J]. AIMS Geosciences, 2025, 11(4): 993-1006. doi: 10.3934/geosci.2025043

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Abstract

China's vast territory across a large latitude makes it an ideal country to investigate the mechanisms causing regional climate changes. Here, we showed that the temporal patterns in regional surface temperature are very different between low- and high latitude regions and between lightly and severely polluted regions, and that a reversal in surface temperature occurs earlier at higher-latitude regions. The latter is affected by recent drastic reductions in air pollution, which give rise to positive net radiative forcings that are the primary cause for China's regional temperature rises in the last decade. These regional climate patterns are in good agreement with both the cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion and the physics model of warming caused by halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs, mainly chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)). Using the IPCC-given globally averaged radiative forcings of aerosols and ozone, our calculated results by the CFC-warming physics model showed good agreement with the observed regional surface temperature changes since 1990, giving correlation coefficients of 0.70–0.96. In lightly polluted regions, such as northeast and northwest China (Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia), Hainan and Guangdong, our calculations reproduced close observations, while underestimating temperatures in highly polluted regions such as Beijing (Hebei), Fujian, and Jiangsu. This discrepancy is explained by larger reductions in post-2013 air pollution, causing greater positive radiative forcings. Our results revealed the mechanisms for regional and global climate change.

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