Against the backdrop of rising uncertainties in both the international and domestic economic landscapes, the construction of a resilient urban economic structure has become crucial for addressing complex risks. As a vital component of the urban economy, the real estate industry plays an irreplaceable role in improving urban economic resilience. Based on panel data from 278 Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above from 2012 to 2021, this paper systematically examines the impact mechanism and spatial spillover effects of healthy real estate development on urban economic resilience by constructing a spatial Durbin model (SDM) and a mediation effect analysis framework. The results indicate that healthy real estate development significantly enhances urban economic resilience, with notable regional heterogeneity. The direct pathway strengthens a city's risk resistance by optimizing resource allocation and stabilizing investment expectations, while the indirect pathway improves resilience by promoting urban infrastructure construction and fostering innovation and entrepreneurship activities. Further analysis reveals significant positive spatial spillover effects, implying that healthy real estate development not only boosts local economic resilience but also contributes to that of neighboring cities. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations from four aspects: optimizing real estate market regulation, deepening regional coordinated development, improving infrastructure, and enhancing innovation and entrepreneurship vitality. These suggestions provide theoretical support and practical guidance for achieving synergistic progress between a healthy real estate market and urban economic resilience.
Citation: Hua Qian, Lanzhi Mei, Yong Tang, Qian Sun, Ju Wei, Fangya Li. Analysis of the impact of healthy real estate development on urban economic resilience—A study based on mediating and spillover effects[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2026, 10(3): 536-570. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2026021
Against the backdrop of rising uncertainties in both the international and domestic economic landscapes, the construction of a resilient urban economic structure has become crucial for addressing complex risks. As a vital component of the urban economy, the real estate industry plays an irreplaceable role in improving urban economic resilience. Based on panel data from 278 Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above from 2012 to 2021, this paper systematically examines the impact mechanism and spatial spillover effects of healthy real estate development on urban economic resilience by constructing a spatial Durbin model (SDM) and a mediation effect analysis framework. The results indicate that healthy real estate development significantly enhances urban economic resilience, with notable regional heterogeneity. The direct pathway strengthens a city's risk resistance by optimizing resource allocation and stabilizing investment expectations, while the indirect pathway improves resilience by promoting urban infrastructure construction and fostering innovation and entrepreneurship activities. Further analysis reveals significant positive spatial spillover effects, implying that healthy real estate development not only boosts local economic resilience but also contributes to that of neighboring cities. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations from four aspects: optimizing real estate market regulation, deepening regional coordinated development, improving infrastructure, and enhancing innovation and entrepreneurship vitality. These suggestions provide theoretical support and practical guidance for achieving synergistic progress between a healthy real estate market and urban economic resilience.
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Hua Qian, Lanzhi Mei, Yong Tang, Qian Sun, Ju Wei, Fangya Li. Analysis of the impact of healthy real estate development on urban economic resilience—A study based on mediating and spillover effects[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2026, 10(3): 536-570. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2026021
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