Employment dynamics in South Africa: an econometric analysis of the role of macro-economic impacts

Daniel Francois Meyer; Daniel Francois Meyer

doi:10.3934/NAR.2026005

National Accounting Review

2026, Volume 8, Issue 1: 95-115. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2026005

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Research article

Employment dynamics in South Africa: an econometric analysis of the role of macro-economic impacts

Daniel Francois Meyer ^,

College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa

Received: 27 August 2025 Revised: 31 January 2026 Accepted: 06 March 2026 Published: 25 March 2026
JEL Codes: E24, J21

South Africa has long faced the dual challenges of slow economic growth and persistently high unemployment. This study examined the key macroeconomic drivers of employment from 1995Q1 to 2024Q3 using time-series econometric methods. Through the ARDL bounds testing framework, a long-run relationship was identified between employment, real GDP, investment, and inflation. Of these, GDP was the only statistically significant long-run determinant of employment, with a statistically significant and positive elasticity of 1.18, highlighting the central role of sustained economic growth in job creation. In the short term, investment was found to have a meaningful impact on employment, though its effect diminishes over time. Granger causality and VAR block exogeneity tests indicated that GDP and investment jointly influence employment, while inflation contributes marginally. The variance decomposition results confirm GDP and investment as the dominant factors explaining changes in employment over time, with inflation's role remaining minimal. These findings suggest that employment growth in South Africa is primarily driven by economic output, supported by capital investment. The study recommends pro-growth reforms and targeted investment strategies as essential tools for addressing unemployment and promoting inclusive labor market development.
- employment,
- monetary policy,
- macro-economy,
- South Africa
Citation: Daniel Francois Meyer. 2026: Employment dynamics in South Africa: an econometric analysis of the role of macro-economic impacts, National Accounting Review, 8(1): 95-115. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2026005

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Abstract

South Africa has long faced the dual challenges of slow economic growth and persistently high unemployment. This study examined the key macroeconomic drivers of employment from 1995Q1 to 2024Q3 using time-series econometric methods. Through the ARDL bounds testing framework, a long-run relationship was identified between employment, real GDP, investment, and inflation. Of these, GDP was the only statistically significant long-run determinant of employment, with a statistically significant and positive elasticity of 1.18, highlighting the central role of sustained economic growth in job creation. In the short term, investment was found to have a meaningful impact on employment, though its effect diminishes over time. Granger causality and VAR block exogeneity tests indicated that GDP and investment jointly influence employment, while inflation contributes marginally. The variance decomposition results confirm GDP and investment as the dominant factors explaining changes in employment over time, with inflation's role remaining minimal. These findings suggest that employment growth in South Africa is primarily driven by economic output, supported by capital investment. The study recommends pro-growth reforms and targeted investment strategies as essential tools for addressing unemployment and promoting inclusive labor market development.

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