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Phase-adjusted estimation of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea under multi-source data and adjustment measures: a modelling study

1 School of Mathematics and Informational Technology, Yuncheng University, Yuncheng 044000, China
2 Shanxi Applied Mathematics Center, Taiyuan 030006, China
3 Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography, Nova Southeastern University, FL 33314, USA
4 Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
5 Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
6 Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan 030006, China
7 School of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China
8 School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China

Special Issues: Modeling the Biological, Epidemiological, Immunological, Molecular, Virological Aspects of COVID-19

Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.
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