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Evaluation of prevention and control interventions and its impact on the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 in Chongqing and Guizhou Provinces

1 School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing 400038, China
2 Department of Obstertrics and Gynaecology, Guizhou Provincial People’s Hospital, Guiyang 550001, China
3 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

These authors contributed equally.

Special Issues: Modeling the Biological, Epidemiological, Immunological, Molecular, Virological Aspects of COVID-19

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, which is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is still severe. In order to optimize the epidemic response strategy, it is urgent to evaluate the implemented prevention and control interventions (PCIs). Based on the reported data of Chongqing and Guizhou Provinces, the phased dynamic models of COVID-19 were constructed, the average intensity of the existing PCIs (from January 25 to March 2) was estimated in these two provinces. The results indicate that both provinces have carried out better control of the infected, but there are still differences in the intensity of control for people who need close observation. Especially in Chongqing, the estimated strength is significantly smaller than that in Guizhou. Furthermore, qualitative evaluations on the epidemic of COVID-19 under different PCIs scenarios suggest that containment strategy is still necessary to ensure the safety of resumption of work and school, and quarantining the city of Wuhan is an important and effective containment strategy to reduce the epidemic in other provinces.
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