
Citation: Sabrina L. Dickey, Aurellia Whitmore, Ellen Campbell. The Relation among Prostate Cancer Knowledge and Psychosocial Factors for Prostate Cancer Screening among African American Men: a Correlational Study[J]. AIMS Public Health, 2017, 4(5): 446-465. doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2017.5.446
[1] | Hidayah Mohd Ali Piah, Mohd Warikh Abd Rashid, Umar Al-Amani Azlan, Maziati Akmal Mohd Hatta . Potassium sodium niobate (KNN) lead-free piezoceramics: A review of phase boundary engineering based on KNN materials. AIMS Materials Science, 2023, 10(5): 835-861. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2023045 |
[2] | Ouassim Hamdi, Frej Mighri, Denis Rodrigue . Piezoelectric cellular polymer films: Fabrication, properties and applications. AIMS Materials Science, 2018, 5(5): 845-869. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2018.5.845 |
[3] | Mariya Aleksandrova . Spray deposition of piezoelectric polymer on plastic substrate for vibrational harvesting and force sensing applications. AIMS Materials Science, 2018, 5(6): 1214-1222. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2018.6.1214 |
[4] | Sree Sourav Das, Zach Fox, Md Dalim Mia, Brian C Samuels, Rony Saha, Ravi Droopad . Demonstration of ferroelectricity in PLD grown HfO2-ZrO2 nanolaminates. AIMS Materials Science, 2023, 10(2): 342-355. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2023018 |
[5] | Murat Aycibin, Naciye ECE . First-principles calculation of the electronic and optical properties of BiRhO3 compound. AIMS Materials Science, 2017, 4(4): 894-904. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2017.4.894 |
[6] | Dao Viet Thang, Le Thi Mai Oanh, Nguyen Cao Khang, Nguyen Manh Hung, Do Danh Bich, Du Thi Xuan Thao, Nguyen Van Minh . Structural, magnetic and electric properties of Nd and Ni co-doped BiFeO3 materials. AIMS Materials Science, 2017, 4(4): 982-990. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2017.4.982 |
[7] | Ruby Maria Syriac, A.B. Bhasi, Y.V.K.S Rao . A review on characteristics and recent advances in piezoelectric thermoset composites. AIMS Materials Science, 2020, 7(6): 772-787. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2020.6.772 |
[8] | Wentao Qu, Qian Zhang, Guibian Li, Boyang Pan, Haiying Liu . Microstructure and thermophysical properties of NiTiZr phase change alloys for downhole tool heat storage. AIMS Materials Science, 2025, 12(1): 85-100. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2025007 |
[9] | Kotaro Mori, Fumio Narita, Yasuhide Shindo . Detection and response characteristics of clamped-free giant magnetostrictive/piezoelectric laminates under concentrated loading. AIMS Materials Science, 2015, 2(4): 401-413. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2015.4.401 |
[10] | Nicola Poccia . From X-rays microscopies imaging and control to the realization of nanoscale up to mesoscale complex materials with precisely tuned correlated disorder. AIMS Materials Science, 2016, 3(1): 160-179. doi: 10.3934/matersci.2016.1.160 |
Leptospirosis is an acute systemic infectious disease caused by various pathogenic leptospira, which belongs to natural foci disease. It is epidemic almost all over the world, especially severe in Southeast Asia. Most provinces, cities, and autonomous regions in China have the existence and epidemic of this disease. Rodents and pigs are the two major sources of infection, while other livestock such as cattle, pigs, and pets like cats, dogs, and mice may also transmit leptospirosis. Typically, pathogenic leptospira can survive longer in a warm and humid environment. People may contract the disease through ingestion of contaminated food or water, or when the bacteria enter the body through scratches on the skin or mucous membranes [1].
The application of mathematical models in leptospirosis research has also become increasingly widespread. Through numerical simulations and data analysis, we can delve deeper into the transmission mechanisms and dynamic characteristics of the disease, providing more precise and effective means for disease prevention and control. Regarding the research on mathematical models of leptospirosis, please refer to the literature [2,3,4,5,6]. These models analyze the factors that influence the transmission dynamics of leptospirosis, pointing out that disease transmission is not only related to the interaction between rodents and humans [4], but also to their contact with free bacteria in the environment [6]. They also demonstrate that adopting appropriate intervention mechanisms, such as reducing the transmission rate, increasing the recovery rate, reducing rodent populations, and reducing bacterial contamination in water sources, can greatly assist in reducing the spread of the disease in the population.
In the real world, infectious disease models are inevitably affected by environmental noise, and deterministic models alone cannot accurately reflect the dynamic behavior of the system when describing disease transmission processes. In recent years, most scholars have explored stochastic infectious disease models that consider environmental perturbations [7,8,9,10,11,12]. The research results indicate that random perturbations have a certain impact on the spread of diseases.
Therefore, it is highly necessary to further establish and study leptospirosis models that consider vector-environment interactions and random disturbances.
To establish the model, we make the following assumptions.
(ⅰ) Susceptible individuals who come into contact with infected vectors or free bacteria in the environment can become infected individuals, and susceptible vectors that come into contact with infected individuals or free bacteria in the environment can also become infected vectors.
(ⅱ) Infected individuals and vectors both release free bacteria into the environment.
(ⅲ) The host population Sh(t),Ih(t),Sh(t), vector population Sv(t),Iv(t), and the concentration of bacteria in the environment are all influenced by Gaussian white noise.
(ⅳ) The recruitment rate Λ and the birth rate Π of the vectors are constants. Every parameter within the system is a nonnegative real number.
Base on the above assumptions, we establish and study a stochastic model of leptospirosis with host-vector-environment interactions:
{dSh(t)=[Λ−μhSh−β1ShIvNh−β3ShBK+B+λhRh]dt+σ1ShdB1(t),dIh(t)=[β1ShIvNh+β3ShBK+B−μhIh−δhIh−γhIh]dt+σ2IhdB2(t),dRh(t)=[γhIh−λhRh−μhRh]dt+σ3RhdB3(t),dSv(t)=[Π−β2IhSvNh−β4SvBK+B−μvSv]dt+σ4SvdB4(t),dIv(t)=[β2IhSvNh+β4SvBK+B−μvIv]dt+σ5IvdB5(t),dB(t)=[α1Ih+α2Iv−kB]dt+σ6BdB6(t), | (1.1) |
where the host population, which represents the human population, is divided into three categories at time t: susceptible individuals Sh(t), infected individuals Ih(t), and recovered individuals Rh(t). The vector population is divided into susceptible vectors Sv(t) and infected vectors Iv(t) at time t. Additionally, B(t) represents the free-floating bacterial population in the environment. The meanings of the parameters are as follows. β1 and β2 represent the infection rates of diseased vectors transmitting the disease to humans and of infected humans transmitting the disease to vectors, respectively. β3 and β4 represent the rates at which susceptible humans and susceptible vectors become infected through contact with bacteria in the environment. μh and μv are natural mortality rate for the human population and the vector population, and γh represents the disease-induced mortality rate among humans. δh represents the recovery rate for infected humans, while λh represents the rate at which recovered humans revert back to the susceptible state. α1 and α2 represent the rates at which infected humans and infected vectors release bacteria into the environment, respectively. K serves as a half-saturation infection parameter, and k is the decay rate of bacteria in the environment. Bi(t)(i=1,2,3,4,5,6) are standard Brownian motions. Parameters σi(i=1,2,⋯,6) are the intensities of noise, representing variability and stochastic effects: σ1 represents the variability in the susceptible individuals Sh(t), which arise from fluctuating contact rates or changes in population behavior that affect exposure to the virus environment and infected vectors; σ2 reflects the random fluctuations in the number of the infected population Ih(t) due to variations in the disease's infectiousness, or response to treatment; σ3 represents stochastic factors affecting the recovered population Rh(t), such as loss of immunity or the impact of interventions; σ4 represents the variability in the susceptible vectors Sv(t), which arise from fluctuating contact rates or changes in population behavior that affect exposure to the Leptospira virus environment and infected individuals; σ5 reflects the random fluctuations in the number of the infected vectors Iv(t) due to variations in the disease¡¯s infectiousness; σ6 represents the random variation intensity of Leptospira virus B(t) released into the environment by infected humans or disease vectors.
We assume the initial conditions are
Sh(0)≥0,Ih(0)≥0,Rh(0)≥0,Sv(0)≥0,Iv(0)≥0,B(0)≥0. | (1.2) |
The aim of this paper is to build a stochastic model of leptospirosis that incorporates both vector-borne and environmental transmission to more comprehensively describe the disease's transmission characteristics. Furthermore, by combining this model with actual reported data on leptospirosis in China in recent years, we aim to estimate important parameters of the model using statistical methods and predict the future trends of leptospirosis in China.
To demonstrate that our proposed model is meaningful, we prove that there exists a unique global positive solution of the system (1.1).
Theorem 2.1. For any initial value (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0))∈R6+, the system (1.1) has a unique positive solution (Sh(t),Ih(t),Rh(t),Sv(t),Iv(t),B(t)), and the solution will remain in R6+ with probability 1, i.e., (Sh(t),Ih(t),Rh(t),Sv(t),Iv(t),B(t))∈R6+ for all t>0 almost surly (a.s.).
Proof. Obviously, the system (1.1) has locally Lipschitz continuous coefficients, for any initial value (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0))∈R6+, and the system (1.1) exists a unique maximal local solution (Sh(t),Ih(t),Rh(t),Sv(t),Iv(t),B(t)), t∈[0,τe), where τe is the explosion time. To verify that this solution of the system (1.1) is global, we just have to prove that τe=∞ a.s. For this, assume k0≥1 is large enough such that (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0)) all fall within the interval [1/k0,k0]. For each integer k≥k0, define the stopping time as:
τk=inf{t∈[0,τe):Sh(t)∉(1k,korIh(t)∉(1k,korRh(t)∉(1k,k)orSh(t)∉(1k,korIv(t)∉(1k,k)orB(t)∉(1k,k)}, |
where inf∅=∞ (∅ denotes the empty set). Clearly, when k→∞, τk are increasing. Let τ∞=limk→∞τk, then τ∞≤τe a.s. If τ∞=∞ a.s. holds, then τe=∞ a.s., which means that (Sh(t),Ih(t),Rh(t),Sv(t),Iv(t),B(t))∈R6+ a.s. for t≥0. Therefore, it suffices to prove that τ∞=∞ a.s.
Next, we assume that there exist constants T>0 and ε∈(0,1), such that P{τ∞≤T}>ε, then, there exists an integer k1≥k0, such that for any k≥k1,
P{τk≤T}≥ε. | (2.1) |
Define the function Q:R6+→R+ as follows:
Q(Sh,Ih,Rh,Sv,Iv,B)=(Sh−a1−a1lnSha1)+(Ih−1−lnIh)+(Rh−1−lnRh)+(Sv−b1−b1lnSvb1)+(Iv−1−lnIv)+ln(1+1B), |
where a1,b1 are positive constants to be determined later. Obviously, the function u−1−lnu is non-negative for all u>0.
Applying Itô's formula, we obtain
dQ=LQdt+σ1(Sh−a1)dB1(t)+σ2(Ih−1)dB2(t)+σ3(Rh−1)dB3(t)+σ4(Sv−b1)dB4(t)+σ5(Iv−1)dB5(t)−σ61+BdB6(t), |
where
LQ=Λ−μh(Sh+Ih+Rh)−δhIh+Π−μv(Sv+Iv)−α1IhB(1+B)−α2IvB(1+B)+k1+B−a1ΛSh+a1μh+a1β1IvNh+a1β3BK+B−a1λhRhSh−β1ShIvNhIh−β3ShB(K+B)Ih+μh+δh+γh−γhIhRh+λh+μh−b1ΠSv+b1β2IhNh+b1β4BK+B+b1μv−β2SvIhNhIv−β4SvB(K+B)Iv+μv+12a1σ21+12σ22+12σ23+12b1σ24+12σ25+121+2B(1+B)2σ26≤Λ+Π+k+a1μh+(a1β1M1−μv)Iv+a1β3+μh+δh+γh+λh+μh+(b1β2M1−μh)Ih+b1β4+b1μv+μv+12a1σ21+12σ22+12σ23+12b1σ24+12σ25+12σ26. |
Choose a1=μvM1β1,b1=μhM1β2, such that a1β1M1−μv=0,b1β2M1−μh=0, and
LQ≤Λ+Π+k+a1μh+a1β3+μh+δh+γh+λh+μh+b1β4+b1μv+μv+12a1σ21+12σ22+12σ23+12b1σ24+12σ25+12σ26:=K, |
where K>0 is a constant. The remainder of the proof follows the similar approach given in [13].
Now, the sufficient conditions for the elimination of Ih,Iv are presented. Denote ⟨f⟩=1t∫t0f(s)ds, and the parameter as follows:
Rm=(β1+β2+β4)μhΠ+β3μvΛμhμv(Λ+Π)+(δh+γh)μvΛ. |
To facilitate the proof of the theorem, we first give a related lemma.
Lemma 2.1. [14,15,16] For any initial value (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0))∈R6+, the solution (Sh(t),Ih(t),Rh(t),Sv(t),Iv(t),B(t))∈R6+ of model (1.1) possesses the following properties:
limt→∞∫t0Sh(s)dB1(s)t=0, limt→∞∫t0Ih(s)dB2(s)t=0, limt→∞∫t0Rh(s)dB3(s)t=0, |
limt→∞∫t0Sv(s)dB4(s)t=0, limt→∞∫t0Iv(s)dB5(s)t=0, limt→∞∫t0B(s)dB6(s)t=0 a.s. |
Proof of Lemma 2.1 can be similarly obtained by following the proof of Lemma 2.2 in reference [14]. The details are omitted here.
Theorem 2.2. Assume (Sh(t),Ih(t),Rh(t),Sv(t),Iv(t),B(t))∈R6+ is the solution of model (1.1) that satisfies the initial condition (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0))∈R6+. If Rm<1, then (Ih(t),Iv(t),B(t)) converges to (0,0,0) exponentially with probability one (a.s.), indicating the elimination of the disease, and furthermore,
limt→∞Sh(t)=Λμh, limt→∞Sv(t)=Πμv, limt→∞Rh(t)=0 a.s. |
Proof. Let P(t)=Ih(t)+Iv(t). Applying Itô's formula, we have
dP(t)=[β1ShNhIv+β3ShBK+B−μhIh−δhIh−γhIh+β2IhNhSv+β4SvBK+B−μvIv]dt+σ2IhdB2(t)++σ5IvdB5(t). | (2.2) |
Integrating both sides of (2.2) from 0 to t and dividing by t, we obtain
P(t)t=P(0)t+β1⟨ShNhIv⟩+β3⟨ShBK+B⟩−(μh+δh+γh)⟨Ih⟩+β2⟨IhNhSv⟩+β4⟨SvBK+B⟩−μv⟨Iv⟩+1t∫t0σ2Ih(s)dB2(s)+1t∫t0σ5Iv(s)dB5(s)≤P(0)t+β1⟨Iv⟩+β3⟨Sh⟩−(μh+δh+γh)⟨Ih⟩+β2⟨Sv⟩+β4⟨Sv⟩−μv⟨Iv⟩+1t∫t0σ2Ih(s)dB2(s)+1t∫t0σ5Iv(s)dB5(s). | (2.3) |
Notice
d(Sh(t)+Ih(t)+Rh(t))≤[Λ−μ(Sh+Ih+Rh)]dt+σ1Sh(t)dB1(t)+σ2Ih(t)dB2(t)+σ3Rh(t)dB3(t) | (2.4) |
and
d(Sv(t)+Iv(t))=[Π−μv(Sv+Iv)]dt+σ4Sv(t)dB4(t)+σ5Iv(t)dB5(t). | (2.5) |
Integrating both sides of (2.4) and (2.5) from 0 to t and dividing by t, then, taking the upper limit, we obtain
lim supt→∞⟨Sh(t)+Ih(t)+Rh(t)⟩≤Λμh a.s. |
lim supt→∞⟨Sv(t)+Iv(t)⟩=Πμv a.s. |
Thus
lim supt→∞⟨Sh(t)⟩≤Λμh, lim supt→∞⟨Ih(t)⟩≤Λμh, lim supt→∞⟨Rh(t)⟩≤Λμh a.s. |
lim supt→∞⟨Sv(t)⟩≤Πμv, lim supt→∞⟨Iv(t)⟩≤Πμv a.s. |
Taking the upper limit of both sides of (2.3), and according to Lemma 2.1, we can obtain the desired result
lim supt→∞P(t)t≤β1⋅Πμv+β3⋅Λμh−(μh+δh+γh)⋅Λμh+β2⋅Πμv+β4⋅Πμv−μv⋅Πμv=μh(Λ+Π)+(δh+γh)Λμh(Rm−1)<0. |
Then
limt→∞P(t)=0. |
Hence
limt→∞Ih(t)=0, limt→∞Iv(t)=0. |
For the sixth equation in (1.1), by integrating both sides from 0 to t, dividing by t, and then taking the upper limit, we can derive that limt→∞B(t)=0.
Similarly, applying the same method to the third equation in (1.1), we can obtain limt→∞Rh(t)=0.
Since
d(Sh(t)+Ih(t))=[Λ−μhSh−μhIh−δhIh−γhIh+λhRh]dt+σ1Sh(t)dB1(t)+σ2Ih(t)dB2(t), |
based on the conclusions obtained above, we can derive that limt→∞Sh(t)=Λμh. Similarly, we can obtain that limt→∞Sv(t)=Πμv.
To better analyze the impact of different parameters on the spread of infectious diseases on the surface, we will proceed with a further parameter sensitivity analysis. We conduct 1000 samplings of the parameters using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method [17]. By calculating the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC), we will be able to screen out the parameters that have a significant impact on the population size. This will help us identify more accurate measures to control the epidemic.
Observing Figure 1, it is evident that the parameters with significant impacts on disease transmission are β3,δh,γh,μv. Here, β3 is positively correlated with Rm, while δh,γh,μv are negatively correlated with Rm. In other words, the smaller the contact rate of humans with free bacteria in the environment, the higher the human mortality rate due to the disease and the natural mortality rate of the vector population; and the faster the recovery rate from the disease, the smaller the basic reproduction number will be, making it easier to eliminate the disease. In fact, as the contact rate of humans with free bacteria in the environment declines, so does the likelihood of contracting the virus. Similarly, when the mortality rate stemming from the illness is high, infected individuals may perish during the infection period, thereby diminishing their capacity to spread the disease to others, resulting in a lower average transmission rate per infected individual. Furthermore, a high natural mortality rate among vectors lessens their chances of transmitting the disease to humans and curtails the release of virus particles into the environment. Lastly, an increase in the recovery rate of infected individuals reduces their chances of transmitting the disease to vectors. All these scenarios contribute significantly to a decrease in the Rm value.
Next, we perform numerical simulations on the system (1.1) by using the high-order Milstein method mentioned in [18,19], which is based on the concept of Itô's formula and stochastic Taylor expansion. The Milstein method improves the accuracy of the estimates by introducing higher-order infinitesimals. Compared to the Euler-Maruyama method, the Milstein method is more precise. However, the Milstein method requires the stochastic process to be twice differentiable, which can make its implementation more complex. It is primarily suitable for stochastic differential equations with continuous sample paths. For stochastic differential equations with discontinuous sample paths or jump processes, other types of numerical methods may be required.
Assuming an initial condition of (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0))=(400,100,150,500, 120, 1000), the specific parameter values are as follows: Λ=35day−1, Π=30day−1, β1=0.004day−1, β2=0.001day−1, β3=0.003day−1, β4=0.002day−1, λh=0.1day−1, δh=0.6day−1, μh=0.01day−1, μv=0.1day−1, K=10cells⋅ml−1, k=0.5day−1, α1=0.08cells⋅ml−1⋅day−1, α2=0.09cells⋅ml−1⋅day−1 and γh=0.7day−1.
Figures 2 and 3 demonstrate the specific time-varying situation of the number of infected individuals or infected vectors when these four parameters β3,δh,γh,μv change, while other parameters remain unchanged, respectively. From these two figures, it can be observed that despite changes in the parameters, both the infected population and the infected vectors ultimately go extinct, but the time of extinction differs. Specifically, as β3 decreases, the extinction time of Ih shortens. Similarly, when δh and γh increase, the extinction time of Ih decreases. Additionally, as μv increases, the extinction time of Iv also shortens.
In this section, we utilize the reported leptospirosis case data in China from 2003 to 2021 to predict the future epidemic situation of the disease. The data comes from China's statistical Yearbook [20], as shown in Figure 4. The population recruitment rate of Λ=7.74×106 is estimated based on China's population statistics from 2003 to 2021, the natural death rate of humans is μh=0.0064, and the number of newly reported leptospirosis cases in 2003 was 1728 [20]. Assuming that the recruitment rate of vectors carrying leptospira is Π=1.0812×105, these vectors are susceptible to external factors that can lead to death, with a natural death rate of μv=0.8125 [21]. The specific values of the parameters are listed in Table 1.
Parameter | Parameter value | Source | Parameter | Parameter value | Source |
Λ | 7.74×106 year−1 | [20] | Π | 1.0812×105 year−1 | [22] |
[1mm] β2 | 1×10−5 year−1 | Fitted | β4 | 1×10−5 year−1 | Fitted |
K | 4.65×108 cells⋅ml−1 | Fitted | k | 0.162 year−1 | [20] |
μh | 0.0064 year−1 | [20] | μv | 0.8125 year−1 | [21] |
α1 | 3 cells⋅ml−1⋅year−1 | [20] | α2 | 100 cells⋅ml−1⋅year−1 | Fitted |
λh | 0.08082 year−1 | [21] | δh | 0.03328 year−1 | [23] |
γh | 0.08889 year−1 | [23] |
Let the cumulative number of leptospirosis cases in the human population be defined as Dh(t), and
dDh(t)dt=β1ShIvNh+β3ShBK+B. | (3.1) |
To predict the disease, it is necessary to first estimate the two important parameters that affect the spread of the disease, namely, β1,β3. We utilize the numerical solution Dh(t) from model (3.1) to fit the data. Let Θ(β1,β3) represent the vector of parameters to be estimated, and Dh(t,Θ) represent the numerical solution of model (3.1) corresponding to the parameters Θ. The vector Y(Yk,k=1,2,3,...,19) represents the 19 statistical data points, and tk is the corresponding time for each data point. Take the initial value of the variable as (Sh(0),Ih(0),Rh(0),Sv(0),Iv(0),B(0),Dh(0))=(7.74×106,1728,307,1.0812×105,1.867×103,1.42×102,1728), and the initial value of the parameter (β1,β3)=(3.2326×10−3,1.2×10−4). Random disturbance intensities are taken as σ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=σ5=σ6=0.1. We estimate the parameters using two methods below: one is the least squares method, and the other is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.
1) The least squares method (LSM). The goal is to find the optimal values of Θ(β1,β3) that minimize the least squares criterion:
LS=19∑k=1|Dh(tk,Θ)−Yk|2. | (3.2) |
To achieve this, we utilize the fmincon command in the mathematical software MATLAB for numerical optimization. Based on the biological background, we set the ranges of Θ to be ((0,0),[0.5,0.5]), which serve as the constraint conditions. Using the optimization algorithm, we obtain the estimated values of the parameters. Then, we run the program 100 times and calculate the average of the output parameters β1=0.0032308,β3=0.00011993, which serve as the required parameter estimates. Figure 5(a), (b) present numerical simulations of the cumulative number of leptospirosis cases in 100 sample paths and their mean output path, respectively.
2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo-Metropolis Hastings method (MCMC-MH). Now, we estimate the parameters using the MCMC parameter estimation method combined with MH sampling. Let Θ(β1,β3) be the proposed parameter and Θ′(β1,β3) be the current parameter. The proposed parameter follows Θ=Θ′+ε, where ε is the step size of random walk that follows a uniform distribution. According to Bayesian statistical inference, the posterior distribution is given by:
P(Θ|Y)=L(Y|Θ)P(Θ), | (3.3) |
where the likelihood function is L(Y|Θ)=−19∑k=1|Dh(tk,Θ)−Yk|2, and P(Θ) is the non-informative prior distribution, assumed to be a constant C. The acceptance probability is defined as: α(Θ,Θ′)=min{1,exp(L(Y|Θ)−L(Y|Θ′))}. The ranges of Θ are also ((0,0), [0.5,0.5]). After performing 5000 iterations of MCMC calculations, with a burn-in period of 1000 iterations, we computed the average of the last 4000 iterations to obtain the estimated values of the parameters as β1=0.0050193,β3=0.000096193. The 95 percent confidence interval for β1 and β3 is (1.432×10−3−9.941×10−3), (1.5036×10−5−2.2604×10−4), respectively. By substituting the estimated parameters into the model (3.1), we can obtain any 100 paths of Dh(t). Figure 6(a), (b) present numerical simulations of the cumulative number of leptospirosis cases in 100 sample paths and their mean output path, respectively. Figure 6(c), (d) show the posterior distribution plots and trace plots for β1, β3, respectively.
It can be seen from Figures 5 and 6 that both simulation results of the model (3.1) by two methods match the cumulative data of leptospirosis cases in China from 2003 to 2021. Next, we calculate the error value between the average curve and the real data, and compare the results from both two methods. It can be seen from Table 2 that the parameter values estimated by the two methods are very close, but the estimation error by the MCMC-MH method is smaller than LSM. Finally, using the parameters estimated by the MCMC-MH method, we calculate the basic reproduction number for the transmission of leptospirosis in China, Rm≈0.00075197<1, and predict that leptospirosis will be eliminated in China in 26 years (see Figure 7).
Method | The estimated value of β1 | The estimated value of β3 | MAPE | RSME |
LSM | 0.0032308 | 0.00011993 | 0.6236 | 4190.7348 |
MCMC | 0.0050193 | 0.000096193 | 0.61821 | 3968.3587 |
This article establishes a stochastic leptospirosis model with both vector and environmental transmission. Through mathematical analysis of the model, a threshold for disease elimination is derived. Then, using the partial rank correlation coefficient, an impact analysis was conducted on the model parameters to identify the key parameters that have a significant influence on disease elimination. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of these parameters was carried out through numerical simulations, which further revealed the mechanisms of their role in the disease transmission process. This analytical approach provides a powerful tool for gaining a deeper understanding of how model parameters affect disease transmission. In the end, using data from China's leptospirosis case reports from 2003 to 2021, two parameter estimation methods, LSM and MCMC-MH, are applied to estimate the crucial parameters of the model. The simulation results of the number of infections in model (1.1) using parameters obtained from two parameter estimation methods align well with the cumulative data of leptospirosis cases in China from 2003 to 2021. It is predicted that under the current control measures, leptospirosis in China will be completely eliminated after 26 years.
Common leptospirosis models [3,5,22] tend to only consider the interaction between hosts and vectors, overlooking the influence of environmental factors. In this paper, by incorporating environmental transmission factors into the model design and considering environmental disturbance, we construct a more comprehensive and realistic stochastic infectious disease model, providing a new perspective for a more accurate understanding of the transmission mechanisms of leptospirosis. Specifically, the parameter estimation method used in this article, which combines MH sampling with MCMC, has served as a good demonstration for parameter estimation in stochastic differential systems with numerous parameters. This approach of combining actual data with parameter estimation not only enhances the accuracy and reliability of the model, but also provides strong support for predicting the future trends of leptospirosis in China. The stochastic model of leptospirosis and its related analysis methods established in this article have important theoretical and practical significance for understanding the transmission patterns of other similar vector-borne diseases and predicting future epidemic trends.
However, it must be said that when we make predictions, we only estimate two important parameters, and some parameters are based on subjective assumptions fitted to the data, which may reduce the accuracy of the prediction. In addition, the model does not fully consider the impact of human behavior, socioeconomic factors, and climate change on disease transmission. The neglect of these factors may limit the accuracy and applicability of the model. In the future, we will incorporate human behavior, socioeconomic factors, and climate change into our model, and strive to utilize actual data to estimate more parameters in order to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model. This will help us gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and design effective interventions to protect public health.
The authors declare they have not used Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in the creation of this article.
This work is sponsored by Nanhu Scholars Program for Young Scholars of XYNU.
The authors declare there is no conflicts of interest.
[1] | Howlader N, Noone AM, Krapcho M, et al. SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2013, National Cancer Institute. Bethesda, MD. Available from: http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2013/. |
[2] |
Shah M, Zhu K, Palmer R, et al. (2007) Family history of cancer and utilization of prostate colorectal, and skin cancer screening tests in U.S. men. Prev Med 44: 459-464. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2006.12.016
![]() |
[3] | American Cancer Society, 2016. Available from: https://www.cancer.org/cancer/prostate-cancer/early-detection/tests.html. |
[4] |
Shoag J, Halpern JA, Lee DJ, et al. (2016) Decline in prostate cancer screening by primary care physicians: An analysis of trends in the use of digital rectal examination and prostate specific antigen testing. J Urol 196: 1047-1052. doi: 10.1016/j.juro.2016.03.171
![]() |
[5] |
Greene KL, Albertsen PC, Babaian RJ, et al. (2009) Adult urology: Prostate specific antigen best practice statement: 2009 Update. J Urol 182: 2232-2241. doi: 10.1016/j.juro.2009.07.093
![]() |
[6] |
1. Bergstralh EJ, Roberts RR, Farmer SA, et al. (2007) A population-based case-control study of PSA and DRE screening on prostate cancer mortality. Urology 70: 93941. doi: 10.1016/j.urology.2007.07.009
![]() |
[7] | 2. Jones RA, Steeves R, Williams I (2010) Family and friend interactions among African-American men deciding whether or not to have a prostate cancer screening. Urol Nurs 30: 189-193. |
[8] |
3. Lee DJ, Consedine NS, Spencer BA (2011) Barriers and facilitators to digital rectal examination screening among african-american and african-caribbean men. Urology 77: 1-898. doi: 10.1016/j.urology.2010.11.056
![]() |
[9] | 4. Breen N, Wagener DK, Brown ML, et al. (2011) Progress in cancer screening over a decade: Results of cancer screening from the 17, 1992, and 1998 national health interview surveys. JNCI, J Natl Cancer Inst 93: 1704-1713. |
[10] |
5. Patel K, Kenerson D, Wang H, et al. (20. Factors influencing prostate cancer screening in low-income African Americans in Tennessee. J Health Care Poor Underserved 21: 114-126. doi: 10.1353/hpu.0.0235
![]() |
[11] |
6. Ukoli FA, Patel K, Hargreaves M, et al. (2013) A tailored prostate cancer education intervention for low-income African Americans: impact on knowledge and screening. J Health Care Poor Underserved 24: 3331. doi: 10.1353/hpu.2013.0033
![]() |
[12] | 7. Moyer AV (20 Screening for prostate cancer: U.S. preventive services task force recommendation statement. Ann Intern Med 157: 120-134. |
[13] |
8. Auffenberg GB, Meeks JJ (2014) Application of the 20american urological association early detection of prostate cancer guideline: Who will we miss? World J Urol 32: 959-964. doi: 10.1007/s00345-014-1341-2
![]() |
[14] | 9. U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, 2017. Draft recommendation statement prostate cancer: screening Available from: https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/Page/Document/draft-recommendation-statement/prostate-cancer-screening1. |
[15] |
10. Miller WR, Thorsen CE (2003) Spirituality, religion, and health: An emerging research field. Am Psychol 58: 24-35. doi: 10.1037/0003-066X.58.1.24
![]() |
[16] | 11. Leyva B, Nguyen AB, Allen JD, et al. (2015) Is Religiosity Associated with Cancer Screening? Results from a National Survey. J Relig Health 54: 1- |
[17] | 12. Weaver GR, Agle BR (2002) Religiosity and Ethical Behavior in Organizations: A Symbolic Interactionist Perspective. Acad Manag Rev 27: 77-97. |
[18] | 13. Aukst-Margetic B, Margetic B (2005) Religiosity and health outcomes: Review of literature. Collect Anthropol 29: 365-371. |
[19] |
14. Lawrence L, McLeroy KR (6) Self-efficacy and health education. J Sch Health 56: 317-321. doi: 10.1111/j.1746-1561.1986.tb05761.x
![]() |
[20] |
15. Bandura A (1977) Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychol Rev 84: 191-215. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.84.2.191
![]() |
[21] |
16. Marks R, Allegrante JP, Lorig K (2005) A review and synthesis of research evidence for self-efficacy-enhancing interventions for reducing chronic disability: Implications for health education practice (Part I). Health Promot Pract 6: 37-43. doi: 10.1177/1524839904266790
![]() |
[22] | 17. McCarley P (2009) Patient empowerment and motivational interviewing: engaging patients to self-manage their own care. Nephrol Nurs J 36: 409-413. |
[23] |
18. Maibach E, Murphy DA (1995) Self-efficacy in health promotion research and practice: conceptualization and measurement. Health Educ Res 10: 37-50. doi: 10.1093/her/10.1.37
![]() |
[24] |
19. Woolf SH, Chan ECY, Harris R, et al. (2005) Promoting informed choice: transforming health care to dispense knowledge for decision making. Ann Intern Med 143: 293-300. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-143-4-200508160-00010
![]() |
[25] |
20. Kilbridge LK, Fraser G, Krahn M, et al. (2009) Lack of comprehension of common prostate cancer terms. J Clin Oncol 27: 2015-2021. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2008.17.3468
![]() |
[26] |
21. Hevey D, Pertl M, Thomas K, et al (2009) The relationship between prostate cancer knowledge and beliefs and intentions to attend PSA screening among at-risk men. Patient Educ Couns 74: 244-249. doi: 10.1016/j.pec.2008.08.013
![]() |
[27] | 22. Gattellari M, Ward JE (2003) Does evidence-based information about screening for prostate cancer enhance consumer decision-making? A randomized controlled trial. J Med Screen 10: 39. |
[28] |
23. Williams RM, Zincke NL, Turner RO, et al. (2008) Prostate cancer screening and shared decision-making preferences among African-American members of the Prince Hall Masons. Psycho-Oncology 17: 1006-1013. doi: 10.1002/pon.1318
![]() |
[29] |
24. Ogunsanya ME, Brown CM, Odedina FT, et al. (2017) Knowledge of prostate cancer and screening among young multiethnic black men. Am J Men's Health 11: 1008-1018. doi: 10.1177/1557988316689497
![]() |
[30] |
25. Campbell MK, Hudson MA, Resnicow K, et al. (2007) Church-based health promotion interventions: Evidence and lessons learned. Ann Rev Public Health 28: 213-234. doi: 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.28.021406.144016
![]() |
[31] |
26. Knight SJ (2014) Decision making and prostate cancer screening. Urol Clin North Am 41: 257-266. doi: 10.1016/j.ucl.2014.01.008
![]() |
[32] | 27. Guerra CE, Jacobs SE, Holmes JH, et al. (2007) Are physicians discussing prostate cancer screening with their patients and why or why not? A pilot study. J Gen Intern Med 22: 901-907. |
[33] | 28. Haque R, Van Den Eeden SK, Jacobsen SJ, et al. (2009) Correlates of prostate-specific antigen testing in a large multiethnic cohort. Am J Manag Care 15: 793-799. |
[34] |
29. Yamasaki J, Hovick SR (2015) "That was grown folks' business": Narrative reflection and response in older adults' family health history communication. Health Commun 30: 221-230. doi: 10.1080/10410236.2013.837569
![]() |
[35] |
30. Partin MR, Nelson D, Radosevich D, et al. (2004). Randomized trial examining the effect of two prostate cancer screening educational interventions on patient knowledge, preferences, and behaviors. J Gen Intern Med 19: 8842. doi: 10.1111/j.1525-1497.2004.30047.x
![]() |
[36] |
31. Radosevich DM, Partin MR, Nugent S, et al. (2004) Measuring patient knowledge of the risks and benefits of prostate cancer screening. Patient Educ Couns 54: 143-152. doi: 10.1016/S0738-3991(03)00207-6
![]() |
[37] | 32. Allen JD, Mohllajee AP, Shelton RC, et al. (2008) A computer-tailored intervention to promote informed decision making for prostate cancer screening among African American men. Am J Men's Health 3: 340-351. |
[38] |
33. Lukwago SN, Kreuter MW, Bucholtz DC, et al. (2001) Development and validation of brief scales to measure collectivism, religiosity, racial pride, and time orientation in urban African American women. Fam Community Health 24: 63-71. doi: 10.1097/00003727-200110000-00008
![]() |
[39] |
34. Holt CL, Wynn TA, Southward P, et al. (2009) Development of a spiritually based educational intervention to increase informed decision making for prostate cancer screening among church-attending African American men. J Health Commun 14: 590-604. doi: 10.1080/10810730903120534
![]() |
[40] |
35. O'Connor AM (1995) Validation of a decisional conflict scale. Med Decis Making 15: 25-30. doi: 10.1177/0272989X9501500105
![]() |
[41] | 36. Bunn H, O'Connor AM (1996) Validation of client decision-making instruments in the context of psychiatry. Can J Nurs Res 28: 13-27. |
[42] | 37. Graham ID, O'Connor AM. User manual – Preparation for decision making scale. Available from: http://decisionaid.ohri.ca/docs/develop/User_Manuals/UM_PrepDM.pdf. |
[43] |
38. Gagnon M, Hebert R, Dube M, et al. (2006) Development and validation of an instrument measuring individual empowerment in relation to personal care: The health care empowerment questionnaire (HCEQ). Am J Health Promot 20: 429-. doi: 10.4278/0890-1171-20.6.429
![]() |
[44] |
39. Capanna C, Chujutalli R, Murray S, et al. (2015) Prostate cancer educational intervention among men in Western Jamaica. Prev Med Rep 2: 788-793. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2015.09.008
![]() |
[45] |
40. Friedman D, Thomas T, Owens O, et al. (2012) It takes two to talk about prostate cancer: A qualitative assessment of African American men's and women's cancer communication practices and recommendations. Am J Men's Health 6: 472-484. doi: 10.1177/1557988312453478
![]() |
[46] |
41. Friedman DB, Corwin SJ, Dominick GM, et al. (2009) African american men's understanding and perceptions about prostate cancer: Why multiple dimensions of health literacy are important in cancer communication. J Community Health 34: 449-. doi: 10.1007/s10900-009-9167-3
![]() |
[47] |
42. Friedman DB, Corwin SJ, Rose ID, et al. (2009) Prostate cancer communication strategies recommended by older african-american men in south carolina: A qualitative analysis. J Cancer Educ 24: 204-209. doi: 10.1080/08858190902876536
![]() |
[48] | 43. Blocker DE, Romocki LS, Thomas KB, et al. (2006) Knowledge, beliefs and barriers associated with prostate cancer prevention and screening behaviors among African-American men. J Natl Med Assoc 98: 1286-1295. |
[49] |
44. McFall SL, Davila M (2008) Gender, social ties, and cancer screening among elderly persons. J Aging Health 20: 997-1011. doi: 10.1177/0898264308324682
![]() |
[50] | 45. Oliver JS (2007) Attitudes and beliefs about prostate cancer and screening among rural African American men. J Cult Divers 14: 74-80. |
[51] |
46. Arras-Boyd RE, Boyd RE, Gaehle K (2009) Reaching men at highest risk for undetected prostate cancer. Int J Men's Health 8: 116-128. doi: 10.3149/jmh.0802.116
![]() |
[52] |
47. Drake BF, Shelten R, Gilligen T, et al. (2010) A church based intervention to promote informed decision making for prostate cancer screening among African American men. J Natl Med Assoc 102: 164-171. doi: 10.1016/S0027-9684(15)30521-6
![]() |
[53] |
48. Peterson J, Atwood JR, Yates B (2002) Key elements for church-based health promotion programs: Outcome-based literature review. Public Health Nurs 19: 401-411. doi: 10.1046/j.1525-1446.2002.19602.x
![]() |
[54] |
49. Ellison CG, Levin JS (1998) The religion-health connection: Evidence, theory, and future directions. Health Educ Behav 25: 700-720. doi: 10.1177/109019819802500603
![]() |
[55] |
50. Tucker CM, Wippold GM, Willams JL, et al. (2017) A CBPR study to test the impact of a church-based health. J Racial Ethn Health Dispar 4: 70-78. doi: 10.1007/s40615-015-0203-y
![]() |
[56] | 51. Husaini BA, Reece MC, Emerson JS, et al. (2008) A church-based program on prostate cancer screening for African American men: reducing health disparities. Ethn Dis 18: 179-184. |
[57] |
52. Morton KR, Lee JW, Martin LR (2017) Pathways from religion to health: Mediation by psychosocial and lifestyle mechanisms psychology of religion and spirituality empowerment program on health behaviors and health outcomes of black adult churchgoers. Psychol Relig Spiritual 9: 106-117. doi: 10.1037/rel0000091
![]() |
[58] |
53. Halbert CH, Gattoni-Celli S, Savage S, et al. (2017) Ever and annual use of prostate cancer screening in african american men. Am J Men's Health 11: 99-107. doi: 10.1177/1557988315596225
![]() |
[59] |
54. Miller DB (2014) Pre-screening age African-American males: What do they know about prostate cancer screening, knowledge, and risk perceptions? Soc Work Health Care 53: 268-288. doi: 10.1080/00981389.2013.875503
![]() |
[60] |
55. Carpenter WR, Godley PA, Clark JA, et al. (2009) Racial differences in trust and regular source of patient care and the implications for prostate cancer screening use. Cancer 115: 5048-5059. doi: 10.1002/cncr.24539
![]() |
[61] | 56. Richardson JT, Webster JD, Fields NJ (2004) Uncovering myths and transforming realities among low-SES African-American men: implications for reducing prostate cancer disparities. J Natl Med Assoc 96: 1295-1302. |
[62] |
57. Green BL, Russell SL, Katz RV, et al. (2006) The Tuskegee Legacy Project: Willingness of Minorities to Participate in Biomedical Research. J Health Care Poor Underserved 17: 698-715. doi: 10.1353/hpu.2006.0126
![]() |
[63] | 58. Walker C (2009) Lest we forget: The Tuskegee Experiment. J Theory Constr Test 13: 5. |
1. | B. Aspe, X. Castel, V. Demange, D. Passerieux, M.A. Pinault-Thaury, F. Jomard, S. Députier, D. Cros, V. Madrangeas, V. Bouquet, R. Sauleau, M. Guilloux-Viry, Enhanced tunability and temperature-dependent dielectric characteristics at microwaves of K0.5Na0.5NbO3 thin films epitaxially grown on (100)MgO substrates, 2021, 856, 09258388, 158138, 10.1016/j.jallcom.2020.158138 | |
2. | B. Aspe, V. Demange, A. Waroquet, X. Castel, B. Gautier, Q. Simon, D. Albertini, M. Zaghrioui, K. Nadaud, S. Députier, F. Gouttefangeas, R. Sauleau, M. Guilloux-Viry, Tetragonal tungsten bronze phase thin films in the K–Na–Nb–O system: Pulsed laser deposition, structural and dielectric characterizations, 2020, 827, 09258388, 154341, 10.1016/j.jallcom.2020.154341 | |
3. | Clive A. Randall, Zhongming Fan, Ian Reaney, Long‐Qing Chen, Susan Trolier‐McKinstry, Antiferroelectrics: History, fundamentals, crystal chemistry, crystal structures, size effects, and applications, 2021, 0002-7820, 10.1111/jace.17834 | |
4. | Rebai Billel, Contribution to study the effect of (Reuss, LRVE, Tamura) models on the axial and shear stress of sandwich FGM plate (Ti–6A1–4V/ZrO2) subjected on linear and nonlinear thermal loads, 2023, 10, 2372-0484, 26, 10.3934/matersci.2023002 | |
5. | Dmitry V. Volkov, Ekaterina V. Glazunova, Lydia A. Shilkina, Aleksandr V. Nazarenko, Aleksey A. Pavelko, Vyacheslav A. Bobylev, Larisa A. Reznichenko, Ilya A. Verbenko, Phase Formation and Properties of Multicomponent Solid Solutions Based on Ba(Ti, Zr)O3 and AgNbO3 for Environmentally Friendly High-Efficiency Energy Storage, 2023, 6, 2571-6131, 1840, 10.3390/ceramics6030112 | |
6. | D. V. Volkov, A. A. Pavelko, A. S. Korolkova, I. A. Verbenko, A. A. Martynenko, L. A. Reznichenko, 2024, Chapter 48, 978-3-031-52238-3, 523, 10.1007/978-3-031-52239-0_48 | |
7. | Hongli Li, Xiaolong Chang, Jie Wang, Xin Zhang, Wenqian Zhao, Fanbao Meng, Preparation and ferroelectric properties of metal-organic frame lithium ion liquid crystal composites, 2024, 0267-8292, 1, 10.1080/02678292.2024.2410440 |
Parameter | Parameter value | Source | Parameter | Parameter value | Source |
Λ | 7.74×106 year−1 | [20] | Π | 1.0812×105 year−1 | [22] |
[1mm] β2 | 1×10−5 year−1 | Fitted | β4 | 1×10−5 year−1 | Fitted |
K | 4.65×108 cells⋅ml−1 | Fitted | k | 0.162 year−1 | [20] |
μh | 0.0064 year−1 | [20] | μv | 0.8125 year−1 | [21] |
α1 | 3 cells⋅ml−1⋅year−1 | [20] | α2 | 100 cells⋅ml−1⋅year−1 | Fitted |
λh | 0.08082 year−1 | [21] | δh | 0.03328 year−1 | [23] |
γh | 0.08889 year−1 | [23] |
Method | The estimated value of β1 | The estimated value of β3 | MAPE | RSME |
LSM | 0.0032308 | 0.00011993 | 0.6236 | 4190.7348 |
MCMC | 0.0050193 | 0.000096193 | 0.61821 | 3968.3587 |
Parameter | Parameter value | Source | Parameter | Parameter value | Source |
Λ | 7.74×106 year−1 | [20] | Π | 1.0812×105 year−1 | [22] |
[1mm] β2 | 1×10−5 year−1 | Fitted | β4 | 1×10−5 year−1 | Fitted |
K | 4.65×108 cells⋅ml−1 | Fitted | k | 0.162 year−1 | [20] |
μh | 0.0064 year−1 | [20] | μv | 0.8125 year−1 | [21] |
α1 | 3 cells⋅ml−1⋅year−1 | [20] | α2 | 100 cells⋅ml−1⋅year−1 | Fitted |
λh | 0.08082 year−1 | [21] | δh | 0.03328 year−1 | [23] |
γh | 0.08889 year−1 | [23] |
Method | The estimated value of β1 | The estimated value of β3 | MAPE | RSME |
LSM | 0.0032308 | 0.00011993 | 0.6236 | 4190.7348 |
MCMC | 0.0050193 | 0.000096193 | 0.61821 | 3968.3587 |