Research Article

Dynamical analysis of infectious disease models considering awareness factors and neural network numerical simulation

  • Published: 20 August 2026
  • Media coverage plays a crucial role in the spread of infectious diseases. To investigate the influence of media intervention on epidemic transmission, we adopted a media-aware susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model based on media-intervention epidemic studies. Our primary focus was the systematic optimization of Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) architectures. The dynamic behavior of the epidemic system was investigated through equilibrium, stability, and bifurcation analyses. The theoretical analysis characterized the threshold dynamics of the model through the basic reproduction number $ R_0 $, while numerical simulations further indicated that media intervention can reduce the infection peak and delay its arrival. Based on this epidemic framework, PINNs were employed for numerical simulation, and three algorithm optimization approaches were systematically investigated: (1) Replacing Euler-generated synthetic reference trajectories with RK4-generated reference trajectories to examine the influence of numerical discretization accuracy on PINN training and evaluation; (2) increasing the network depth from three to five layers to enhance the approximation of nonlinear epidemic dynamics; and (3) introducing skip-connection architectures, including Residual, Highway, and an exploratory residual-integrated Highway (ResHighway) network. Comparative results showed that the Residual network achieved the best overall accuracy and stability. Although the proposed ResHighway architecture yielded marginal accuracy gains compared with the Highway network, it underperformed the lightweight Residual network. This observation implies that overcomplicating network architectures may not bring consistent performance improvements to PINNs applied in epidemic dynamic modeling.

    Citation: Minghao Song, Hua Liu, Jingyan Ma, Kai Zhang, Qibin Zhang, Yumei Wei. Dynamical analysis of infectious disease models considering awareness factors and neural network numerical simulation[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2026, 21(5): 1767-1799. doi: 10.3934/nhm.2026066

    Related Papers:

  • Media coverage plays a crucial role in the spread of infectious diseases. To investigate the influence of media intervention on epidemic transmission, we adopted a media-aware susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model based on media-intervention epidemic studies. Our primary focus was the systematic optimization of Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) architectures. The dynamic behavior of the epidemic system was investigated through equilibrium, stability, and bifurcation analyses. The theoretical analysis characterized the threshold dynamics of the model through the basic reproduction number $ R_0 $, while numerical simulations further indicated that media intervention can reduce the infection peak and delay its arrival. Based on this epidemic framework, PINNs were employed for numerical simulation, and three algorithm optimization approaches were systematically investigated: (1) Replacing Euler-generated synthetic reference trajectories with RK4-generated reference trajectories to examine the influence of numerical discretization accuracy on PINN training and evaluation; (2) increasing the network depth from three to five layers to enhance the approximation of nonlinear epidemic dynamics; and (3) introducing skip-connection architectures, including Residual, Highway, and an exploratory residual-integrated Highway (ResHighway) network. Comparative results showed that the Residual network achieved the best overall accuracy and stability. Although the proposed ResHighway architecture yielded marginal accuracy gains compared with the Highway network, it underperformed the lightweight Residual network. This observation implies that overcomplicating network architectures may not bring consistent performance improvements to PINNs applied in epidemic dynamic modeling.



    加载中


    [1] F. M. Snowden, Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present, Yale University Press, New Haven, 2019. https://doi.org/10.12987/9780300249149
    [2] G. P. Vigezzi, R. Vecchio, C. Barbati, G. Bonazza, P. Mazzarello, A. Odone, Historical analysis of the first smallpox vaccination campaigns in early 19-century northern Italy: Organisation and communication insights for contemporary epidemics' prevention and control, Vaccine, 49 (2025), 126764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126764 doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126764
    [3] Y. Li, S. Hou, Y. Zhang, J. Liu, H. Fan, C. Cao, Effect of travel restrictions of Wuhan City against COVID-19: A modified SEIR model analysis, Disaster Med. Public Health Prep., 16 (2022), 1431–1437. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2021.5 doi: 10.1017/dmp.2021.5
    [4] World Health Organization, WHO Guidelines for the Global Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS): Updated Recommendations, October 2004, Technical Report WHO/CDS/CSR/ARO/2004.1, World Health Organization, Geneva, 2004. Available from: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-CDS-CSR-ARO-2004.1.
    [5] J. H. Jones, M. Salathé, Early assessment of anxiety and behavioral response to novel swine-origin influenza A(H1N1), PLoS One, 4 (2009), e8032. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0008032 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008032
    [6] WHO Ebola Response Team, Ebola virus disease in West Africa–-the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections, N. Engl. J. Med., 371 (2014), 1481–1495. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa1411100 doi: 10.1056/nejmoa1411100
    [7] W. O. Kermack, A. G. McKendrick, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, Proc. R. Soc. A, 115 (1927), 700–721. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 doi: 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
    [8] R. M. Anderson, R. M. May, Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198545996.001.0001
    [9] M. J. Keeling, P. Rohani, Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400841035
    [10] O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek, J. A. J. Metz, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio $R_0$ in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations, J. Math. Biol., 28 (1990), 365–382. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00178324 doi: 10.1007/bf00178324
    [11] M. Raissi, P. Perdikaris, G. E. Karniadakis, Physics-informed neural networks: A deep learning framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations, J. Comput. Phys., 378 (2019), 686–707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2018.10.045 doi: 10.1016/j.jcp.2018.10.045
    [12] C. Millevoi, D. Pasetto, M. Ferronato, A physics-informed neural network approach for compartmental epidemiological models, PLoS Comput. Biol., 20 (2024), e1012387. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012387 doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012387
    [13] D. Xia, B. Diao, Q. Min, J. Mei, A SEIHR knowledge dissemination model with time-varying parameters based on physics-informed neural networks, Neurocomputing, 650 (2025), 130812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2025.130812 doi: 10.1016/j.neucom.2025.130812
    [14] E. Schiassi, M. De Florio, A. D'Ambrosio, D. Mortari, R. Furfaro, Physics-informed neural networks and functional interpolation for data-driven parameters discovery of epidemiological compartmental models, Mathematics, 9 (2021), 2069. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9172069 doi: 10.3390/math9172069
    [15] S. Fujita, T. Akutsu, Enhancing epidemic forecasting with a physics-informed spatial identity neural network, PLoS One, 20 (2025), e0331611. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331611 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0331611
    [16] I. V. Freire, M. M. Diniz, M. dos S. Cecconello, R. C. Bassanezi, Application of physics-informed neural networks (PINN) in the Kermack–McKendrick approach to epidemiological models, in Proceeding Series of the Brazilian Society of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 12 (2026), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.5540/03.2026.012.01.0255
    [17] D. Xia, M. He, J. Mei, Q. Min, Physics-informed neural networks prediction approach for knowledge dissemination model considering knowledge media, Knowl. Based Syst., 324 (2025), 113514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2025.113514 doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2025.113514
    [18] J. Mei, R. Ye, Z. Xiang, J. Hu, W. Wang, A direct data-driven intermittent control and learning via Lyapunov-guided attraction region estimation with neural feedback loop design, IEEE Trans. Autom. Sci. Eng., 23 (2026), 6504–6519. https://doi.org/10.1109/tase.2026.3669581 doi: 10.1109/tase.2026.3669581
    [19] K. He, X. Zhang, S. Ren, J. Sun, Deep residual learning for image recognition, in Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2016,770–778. https://doi.org/10.1109/cvpr.2016.90
    [20] R. K. Srivastava, K. Greff, J. Schmidhuber, Highway networks, preprint, arXiv: 1505.00387. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1505.00387
    [21] L. Liu, J. Xie, K. Li, S. Ji, Exploring how media influence preventive behavior and excessive preventive intention during the COVID-19 pandemic in China, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17 (2020), 7990. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217990 doi: 10.3390/ijerph17217990
    [22] S. R. Gani, S. V. Halawar, Optimal control analysis of deterministic and stochastic epidemic model with media awareness programs, Int. J. Optim. Control Theor. Appl., 9 (2019), 24–35. https://doi.org/10.11121/ijocta.01.2019.00423 doi: 10.11121/ijocta.01.2019.00423
    [23] S. Funk, E. Gilad, V. A. A. Jansen, Endemic disease, awareness, and local behavioural response, J. Theor. Biol., 264 (2010), 501–509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.02.032 doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.02.032
    [24] D. Aldila, Analyzing the impact of the media campaign and rapid testing for COVID-19 as an optimal control problem in East Java, Indonesia, Chaos, Solitons Fractals, 141 (2020), 110364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110364 doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110364
    [25] J. Cui, Y. Sun, H. Zhu, The impact of media on the control of infectious diseases, J. Dyn. Differ. Equ., 20 (2008), 31–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10884-007-9075-0 doi: 10.1007/s10884-007-9075-0
    [26] P. van den Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-5564(02)00108-6 doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(02)00108-6
    [27] E. J. Routh, A Treatise on the Stability of a Given State of Motion: Particularly Steady Motion, Macmillan and Company, London, 1877.
    [28] A. Hurwitz, Ueber die Bedingungen, unter welchen eine Gleichung nur Wurzeln mit negativen reellen Theilen besitzt, Math. Ann., 46 (1895), 273–284. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01446812 doi: 10.1007/bf01446812
    [29] K. Zhang, Y. Ji, Q. Pan, Y. Wei, Y. Ye, H. Liu, Sensitivity analysis and optimal treatment control for a mathematical model of human papillomavirus infection, AIMS Math., 5 (2020), 2646–2670. https://doi.org/10.3934/math.2020172 doi: 10.3934/math.2020172
    [30] C. Castillo-Chavez, B. Song, Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications, Math. Biosci. Eng., 1 (2004), 361–404. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2004.1.361 doi: 10.3934/mbe.2004.1.361
    [31] V. Nair, G. E. Hinton, Rectified linear units improve restricted Boltzmann machines, in Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR, 9 (2010), 807–814.
    [32] J. C. Butcher, Numerical Methods for Ordinary Differential Equations, 2nd ed., John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470753767
    [33] I. Loshchilov, F. Hutter, Decoupled weight decay regularization, preprint, arXiv: 1711.05101. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1711.05101
    [34] I. Loshchilov, F. Hutter, SGDR: Stochastic gradient descent with warm restarts, preprint, arXiv: 1608.03983. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1608.03983
    [35] Z. Zhang, A gentle introduction to artificial neural networks, Ann. Transl. Med., 4 (2016), 370. https://doi.org/10.21037/atm.2016.06.20 doi: 10.21037/atm.2016.06.20
    [36] B. Tang, X. Wang, Q. Li, N. L. Bragazzi, S. Tang, Y. Xiao, et al., Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, J. Clin. Med., 9 (2020), 462. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020462 doi: 10.3390/jcm9020462
    [37] Z. Feng, J. X. Velasco-Hernández, Competitive exclusion in a vector-host model for the dengue fever, J. Math. Biol., 35 (1997), 523–544. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002850050064 doi: 10.1007/s002850050064
    [38] P. Riyapan, S. E. Shuaib, A. Intarasit, A mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of Bangkok, Thailand, Comput. Math. Methods Med., 2021 (2021), 6664483. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6664483 doi: 10.1155/2021/6664483
    [39] G. Akrivis, C. G. Makridakis, C. Smaragdakis, Runge–Kutta physics informed neural networks: Formulation and analysis, Numer. Math., 157 (2025), 1975–2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00211-025-01501-7 doi: 10.1007/s00211-025-01501-7
    [40] M. Telgarsky, Benefits of depth in neural networks, in Proceedings of the 29th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, PMLR, 49 (2016), 1517–1539. Available from: https://proceedings.mlr.press/v49/telgarsky16.html.
    [41] G. F. Montúfar, R. Pascanu, K. Cho, Y. Bengio, On the number of linear regions of deep neural networks, preprint, arXiv: 1402.1869. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1402.1869
    [42] Y. Bengio, P. Simard, P. Frasconi, Learning long-term dependencies with gradient descent is difficult, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, 5 (1994), 157–166. https://doi.org/10.1109/72.279181 doi: 10.1109/72.279181
    [43] G. Zhang, H. Yang, G. Pan, Y. Duan, F. Zhu, Y. Chen, Constrained self-adaptive physics-informed neural networks with ResNet block-enhanced network architecture, Mathematics, 11 (2023), 1109. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11051109 doi: 10.3390/math11051109
    [44] T. Zia, S. Razzaq, Residual recurrent highway networks for learning deep sequence prediction models, J. Grid Comput., 18 (2020), 169–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10723-018-9444-4 doi: 10.1007/s10723-018-9444-4
    [45] G. Casella, R. L. Berger, Statistical Inference, 2nd ed., Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, CA, 2002.
  • Reader Comments
  • © 2026 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Metrics

Article views(672) PDF downloads(37) Cited by(0)

Article outline

Figures and Tables

Figures(20)  /  Tables(2)

/

DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
Return
Return

Catalog