Research article Special Issues

HIV incidence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

  • At the end of 2022, a total of 20,003 diagnoses of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and 8,983 cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) among Japanese nationals, and 3,860 HIV diagnoses and 1,575 AIDS cases among foreign residents, had been notified to the government in Japan. This study updates the estimate of HIV incidence, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. It aimed to reconstruct the incidence of HIV and understand how the disruption caused by COVID-19 affected the epidemiology of HIV. Using a median incubation period of 10.0 years, the number of undiagnosed HIV infections was estimated to be 3,209 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2,642, 3,710) at the end of 2022. This figure has declined steadily over the past 10 years. Assuming that the median incubation period was 10.0 years, the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections, including surviving AIDS cases, was 89.3% (95% CI: 87.8%, 91.0%). When AIDS cases were excluded, the proportion was 86.2% (95% CI: 84.3%, 88.3%). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the estimated annual diagnosis rate was slightly lower than during earlier time intervals, at around 16.5% (95% CI: 14.9%, 18.1%). Japan may already have achieved diagnostic coverage of 90%, given its 9% increment in the diagnosed proportion during the past 5 years. The incidence of HIV infection continued to decrease even during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, and the annual rate of diagnosis decreased slightly to 16.5%. Monitoring the recovery of diagnosis along with the effective reproduction number is vital in the future.

    Citation: Hiroshi Nishiura, Seiko Fujiwara, Akifumi Imamura, Takuma Shirasaka. HIV incidence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2024, 21(4): 4874-4885. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024215

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  • At the end of 2022, a total of 20,003 diagnoses of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and 8,983 cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) among Japanese nationals, and 3,860 HIV diagnoses and 1,575 AIDS cases among foreign residents, had been notified to the government in Japan. This study updates the estimate of HIV incidence, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. It aimed to reconstruct the incidence of HIV and understand how the disruption caused by COVID-19 affected the epidemiology of HIV. Using a median incubation period of 10.0 years, the number of undiagnosed HIV infections was estimated to be 3,209 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2,642, 3,710) at the end of 2022. This figure has declined steadily over the past 10 years. Assuming that the median incubation period was 10.0 years, the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections, including surviving AIDS cases, was 89.3% (95% CI: 87.8%, 91.0%). When AIDS cases were excluded, the proportion was 86.2% (95% CI: 84.3%, 88.3%). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the estimated annual diagnosis rate was slightly lower than during earlier time intervals, at around 16.5% (95% CI: 14.9%, 18.1%). Japan may already have achieved diagnostic coverage of 90%, given its 9% increment in the diagnosed proportion during the past 5 years. The incidence of HIV infection continued to decrease even during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, and the annual rate of diagnosis decreased slightly to 16.5%. Monitoring the recovery of diagnosis along with the effective reproduction number is vital in the future.



    The linear complexity and the k-error linear complexity are important cryptographic characteristics of stream cipher sequences. The linear complexity of an N-periodic sequence s={su}u=0, denoted by LC(s), is defined as the length of the shortest linear feedback shift register (LFSR) that generates it [1]. With the Berlekamp-Massey (B-M) algorithm [2], if LC(s)N/2, then s is regarded as a good sequence with respect to its linear complexity. For an integer k0, the k-error linear complexity LCk(s) is the smallest linear complexity that can be obtained by changing at most k terms of s in the first period and periodically continued [3]. The cryptographic background of the k-error linear complexity is that some key streams with large linear complexity can be approximated by some sequences with much lower linear complexity [2]. For a sequence to be cryptographically strong, its linear complexity should be large enough, and its k-error linear complexity should be close to the linear complexity.

    The relationship between the linear complexity and the DFT of the sequence was given by Blahut in [4]. Let m be the order of 2 modulo an odd number N. For a primitive N-th root βF2m of unity, the DFT of s is defined by

    ρi=N1u=0suβiu0iN1. (1.1)

    Then

    LC(s)=WH(ρ0,ρ1,,ρN1), (1.2)

    where WH(A) is the hamming weight of the sequence A. The polynomial

    G(X)=N1i=0ρiXiF2m[X] (1.3)

    is called the Mattson-Solomon polynomial (M-S polynomial) of s [5]. It can be deduced from Eqs (1.2)and (1.3) that the linear complexity of s is equal to the number of the nonzero terms of G(X), namely

    LC(s)=|G(X)|. (1.4)

    By the inverse DFT,

    su=N1i=0ρiβiu=G(βu)0uN1. (1.5)

    There are many studies about two-prime generators. In 1997–1998, Ding calculated the linear complexity and the autocorrelation values of binary Whiteman generalized cyclotomic sequences of order two [6,7]. In 2013, Li defined a new generalized cyclotomic sequence of order two of length pq, which is based on Whiteman generalized cyclotomic classes, and calculated its linear complexity [8]. In 2015, Wei determined the k-error linear complexity of Legendre sequences for k=1,2 [9]. In 2018, Hofer and Winterhof studied the 2-adic complexity of the two-prime generator of period pq [10]. Alecu and Sălăgean transformed the optimisation problem of finding the k-error linear complexity of a sequence into an optimisation problem in the DFT domain, by using Blahut's theorem in the same year [11]. In 2019, in terms of the DFT, Chen and Wu discussed the k-error linear complexity for Legendre, Ding-Helleseth-Lam, and Hall's sextic residue sequences of odd prime period p [12]. In 2020, Zhou and Liu presented a type of binary sequences based on a general two-prime generalized cyclotomy, and derived their minimal polynomial and linear complexity [13]. In 2021, the autocorrelation distribution and the 2-adic complexity of generalized cyclotomic binary sequences of order 2 with period pq were determined by Jing [14].

    This paper is organized as follows. Firstly, we present some preliminaries about Whiteman generalized cyclotomic classes and the linear complexity in Section 2. In Section 3, we give main results about the linear complexity of Whiteman generalized cyclotomic sequences of order two. In Section 4, we give the 1-error linear complexity of these sequences. At last, we conclude this paper in Section 5.

    Let p and q be two distinct odd primes with gcd(p1,q1)=2, and N=pq, e=(p1)(q1)/2. By the Chinese Remainder Theorem, there is a fixed common primitive root g of both p and q such that ordN(g)=e. Let x be an integer satisfying

    x=g(modp)x=1(modq).

    Then the set

    Di={gsximodN:s=0,1,,e1}

    for i=0,1 is called a Whiteman generalized cyclotomic class of order two [15].

    As pointed out in [14], the unit group of the ring ZN is

    ZN={a(mod N):gcd(a,N)=1}={ip+jq(mod N):1iq11jp1}.

    Let P={p,2p,,(q1)p}, Q={q,2q,,(p1)q} and R={0}. Then ZN=ZNPQR. The sequence s(a,b,c)={su}u=0 over F2 is defined by

    su={c,if u=0,a,if uP,b,if uQ,12(1(up)(uq)),if uZN,

    where () denotes the Legendre symbol and a,b,cF2 [14].

    Lemma 2.1. [7] 1D1, if |pq|/2 is odd; and 1D0, if |pq|/2 is even.

    Lemma 2.2. [6]

    (1)Ifp±1(mod8),q±1(mod8)orp±3(mod8),q±3(mod8),then2D0.(2)Ifp±1(mod8),q±3(mod8)orp±3(mod8),q±1(mod8),then2D1.

    Lemma 2.3. [6] (1) If aP, then aP=P and aQ=R.

    (2) If aQ, then aP=R and aQ=Q.

    (3) If aDi, then aP=P, aQ=Q, and aDj=D(i+j)mod2, where i,j=0,1.

    It was shown in [6] that, for a primitive N-th root βF2m of unity, we have

    iPβi=1,iQβi=1,

    and

    iD0βi+iD1βi+iPβi+iQβi=1. (2.1)

    Lemma 2.4. [6]

    uDjβiu={p12(mod2),ifiP,q12(mod2),ifiQ.

    Actually, if p1(mod8) or p3(mod8), then (p1)/2=1; if p1(mod8) or p3(mod8), then (p1)/2=0. By symmetry, if q1(mod8) or q3(mod8), then (q1)/2=1; if q1(mod8) or q3(mod8), then (q1)/2=0.

    Lemma 2.5. Define

    Di(X)=uDiXuF2[X],i=0,1.

    Then for β, we have D0(β)=0 and D1(β)=1 if 2D0; D0(β)=ω and D1(β)=1+ω if 2D1, where ωF4F2.

    Proof. (1) If 2D0, by Lemma 2.3 we have

    [Di(β)]2=Di(β2)=2uDiβ2u=Di(β)F2.

    (2) If 2D1, by Lemma 2.3 we have

    [Di(β)]2=Di(β2)=2uDi+1β2u=Di+1(β),[Di(β)]4=[Di(β)2]2=[Di+1(β)]2=Di+1(β2)=2uDiβ2u=Di(β).

    Hence Di(β)F4F2.

    And by Eq (2.1), we have D0(β)D1(β) and D0(β)+D1(β)=1. Assume that D0(β)=0, D1(β)=1 for 2D0, and D0(β)=ω, D1(β)=1+ω for 2D1, where ωF4F2.

    Let LC(s(a,b,c)) be the linear complexity of s(a,b,c), and the other symbols be the same as before.

    Theorem 3.1. Let pv(mod8) and qw(mod8), where v,w=±1,±3. Then the linear complexity of s(a,b,c) respect to different values of p and q is as shown as Table 1.

    Table 1.  The linear complexity of s(a,b,c).
    s(0,0,0) s(0,0,1) s(0,1,0) s(0,1,1) s(1,0,0) s(1,0,1) s(1,1,0)) s(1,1,1)
    (1,3) or (3,1) pqp pqq+1 pq1 pqpq+2 pqpq+1 pq pqq pqp+1
    (1,3) or (3,1) pq1 pqpq+2 pqp pqq+1 pqq pqp+1 pqpq+1 pq
    (1,1) or (3,3) pqp+q12 pq+pq+12 pq+p+q32 pqpq+32 pqpq+12 pq+p+q12 pq+pq12 pqp+q+12
    (1,1) or (3,3) pq+p+q32 pqpq+32 pqp+q12 pq+pq+12 pq+pq12 pqp+q+12 pqpq+12 pq+p+q12
    (3,1) or (1,3) pqq pqp+1 pqpq+1 pq pq1 pqpq+2 pqp pqq+1
    (1,1) or (3,3) pq+pq12 pqp+q+12 pqpq+12 pq+p+q12 pq+p+q32 pqpq+32 pqp+q12 pq+pq+12

     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV

    Proof. We provide the process of calculating LC(s(0,0,0)) when v=1 and w=3, and can prove other cases in a similar way.

    By Lemmas 2.1–2.3 and Eq (1.1), we have 1D1, 2D1, then

    ρi=N1u=0suβiu=uD1βiu=uD0βiu,

    and ρ0=0. By Eq (1.3), we have

    G(X)=N1i=0ρiXi=iD0ρiXi+iD1ρiXi+iPρiXi+iQρiXi+ρ0=iD0uD0βiuXi+iD1uD0βiuXi+iPuD0βiuXi+iQuD0βiuXi.

    Let t=iu. Then by Lemmas 2.3–2.5, we have

    G(X)=iD0tD0βtXi+iD1tD1βtXi+iPp12Xi+iQq12Xi=D0(β)D0(X)+D1(β)D1(X)+iPXi=ωD0(X)+(1+ω)D1(X)+iPXi.

    By Eq (1.4) we can get the linear complexity of s(0,0,0) as

    LC(s(0,0,0))=|G(X)|=pqp.

    Actually, the linear complexity of s(1,0,0) was studied by Ding in [6] with its minimal polynomial.

    Let LCk(s(a,b,c)) be the k-error linear complexity of s(a,b,c), ˜s={˜su}u=0 be the new sequence obtained by changing at most k terms of s, that ˜s=s+e, where e={eu}u=0 is an error sequence of period N. Ding has provided in [2] that, the k-error linear complexity of a sequence can be expressed as

    LCk(s)=minWH(e)k{LC(s+e)}. (4.1)

    It is clearly that LC0(s)=LC(s) and

    NLC0(s)LC1(s)LCl(s)=0,

    where l=WH(s).

    Let G(X), Gk(X) and ˜G(X) be the M-S polynomials of s, e and ˜s respectively. Note that

    G(X)=N1i=0ρiXi, Gk(X)=N1i=0ηiXi, ˜G(X)=N1i=0ξiXi, (4.2)

    where ρi, ηi and ξi are the DFTs of s, e and ˜s respectively. By Eqs (1.5), (4.1) and (4.2), we have ˜G(X)=G(X)+Gk(X), then

    ξi=ρi+ηi. (4.3)

    Assume that eu0=1 for 0u0N1 and eu=0 for uu0 in the first period of e. Then the DFT of e is

    ηi=N1u=0euβiu=βiu00iN1.

    Specially, if u0=0, then ηi=1 for all 0iN1; otherwise, η0=1 and the order of ηi is N for 1iN1.

    Theorem 4.1. Let pv(mod8) and qw(mod8), where v,w=±1,±3, and the other symbols be the same as before. Then the 1-error linear complexity of s(a,b,c) is as shown as Table 2.

    Table 2.  The 1-error linear complexity of s(a,b,c).
    s(0,0,0) and s(0,0,1) s(0,1,0) and s(0,1,1) s(1,0,0) and s(1,0,1) s(1,1,0)) and s(1,1,1)
    (1,3) or (3,1) (1) pqp, if p>q;
    (2) pqq+1, if p<q.
    pqpq+2 pqpq+1 (1) pqp+1, if p>q;
    (2) pqq, if p<q.
    (1,3) or (3,1) pqpq+2 (1) pqp, if p>q;
    (2) pqq+1, if p<q.
    (1) pqp+1, if p>q;
    (2) pqq, if p<q.
    pqpq+1
    (1,1) or (3,3) (1) pqp+q12, if p>q;
    (2) pq+pq+12, if p<q.
    pqpq+32 pqpq+12 (1) pqp+q+12, if p>q;
    (2) pq+pq12, if p<q.
    (1,1) or (3,3) pqpq+32 (1) pqp+q12, if p>q;
    (2) pq+pq+12, if p<q.
    (1) pqp+q+12, if p>q;
    (2) pq+pq12, if p<q.
    pqpq+12
    (3,1) or (1,3) (1) pqp+1, if p>q;
    (2) pqq, if p<q.
    pqpq+1 pqpq+2 (1) pqp, if p>q;
    (2) pqq+1, if p<q.
    (1,1) or (3,3) (1) pqp+q+12, if p>q;
    (2) pq+pq12, if p<q.
    pqpq+12 pqpq+32 (1) pqp+q12, if p>q;
    (2) pq+pq+12, if p<q.

     | Show Table
    DownLoad: CSV

    Proof. We consider the case v=1,w=3 for LC1(s(0,0,0)). By Lemmas 2.1–2.5 and Eq (1.1), we have 1D1, 2D1 and

    ξi=ρi+ηi=uD0βiu+βiu0={ω+βiu0,if iD0,1+ω+βiu0,if iD1,1+βiu0,if iP,βiu0,if iQ,1,if i=0.

    Then by Eq (4.2), we can get

    ˜G(X)=N1i=0ξiXi=iD0(ω+βiu0)Xi+iD1(1+ω+βiu0)Xi+iP(1+βiu0)Xi+iQβiu0Xi+1.

    According to Lemma 2.3, we can get the following results.

    (1) If u0=0, then

    ˜G(X)=iD0(ω+1)Xi+iD1ωXi+iQXi+1,|˜G(X)|=pqq+1.

    (2) If u0Q, then

    ˜G(X)=iD0(ω+βiu0)Xi+iD1(1+ω+βiu0)Xi+iQβiu0Xi+1,|˜G(X)|=pqq+1.

    (3) If u0D0 or u0D1 or u0P, then

    ˜G(X)=iD0(ω+βiu0)Xi+iD1(1+ω+βiu0)Xi+iP(1+βiu0)Xi+iQβiu0Xi+1,|˜G(X)|=pq.

    Compare the results of Cases (1)–(3) with LC(s(0,0,0))=pqp. If p>q, then pqp<pqq+1<pq; if p<q, then pqq+1<pqp<pq. Hence

    LC1(s(0,0,0))={pqp,if p>q,pqq+1,if p<q.

    Similarly we can prove the other cases for LC1(s(a,b,c)).

    All results of LC(s(a,b,c)) and LC1(s(a,b,c)) in Sections 3 and 4 have been tested by MAGMA program.

    The purpose of this paper is to determine the linear complexity and the 1-error linear complexity of s(a,b,c). In most of the cases, s(a,b,c) possesses high linear complexity, namely LC(s(a,b,c))>N/2, consequently has decent stability against 1-bit error. Notice that the linear complexity of some of the sequences above is close to N/2. Then the sequences can be selected to construct cyclic codes by their minimal generating polynomials with the method introduced by Ding [16].

    This work was supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 20CX05012A), the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of CNPC under Grant (No. ZD2019-183-008), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61902429, 11775306) and Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (ZR2019MF070).

    The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.



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