Evaluation of vaccination strategies during pandemic outbreaks

Christopher S. Bowman; Julien Arino; S.M. Moghadas; Christopher S. Bowman; Julien Arino; S.M. Moghadas

doi:10.3934/mbe.2011.8.113

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

2011, Volume 8, Issue 1: 113-122. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.113

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Evaluation of vaccination strategies during pandemic outbreaks

1.
Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, 435 Ellice Avenue, Winnipeg, MB, R3B 1Y6
2.
Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB
3.
Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, R3B 1Y6

Received: 01 October 2009 Accepted: 29 June 2018 Published: 01 January 2011
MSC : 92B05, 45J05.

During pandemic influenza, several factors could significantly impact the outcome of vaccination campaigns, including the delay in pandemic vaccine availability, inadequate protective efficacy, and insufficient number of vaccines to cover the entire population. Here, we incorporate these factors into a vaccination model to investigate and compare the effectiveness of the single-dose and two-dose vaccine strategies. The results show that, if vaccination starts early enough after the onset of the outbreak, a two-dose strategy can lead to a greater reduction in the total number of infections. This, however, requires the second dose of vaccine to confer a substantially higher protection compared to that induced by the first dose. For a sufficiently long delay in start of vaccination, the single-dose strategy outperforms the two-dose vaccination program regardless of its protection efficacy. The findings suggest that the population-wide benefits of a single-dose strategy could in general be greater than the two-dose vaccination program, in particular when the second dose offers marginal increase in the protection induced by the first dose.

Keywords:

Citation: Christopher S. Bowman, Julien Arino, S.M. Moghadas. Evaluation of vaccination strategies during pandemic outbreaks[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2011, 8(1): 113-122. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.113

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Abstract

During pandemic influenza, several factors could significantly impact the outcome of vaccination campaigns, including the delay in pandemic vaccine availability, inadequate protective efficacy, and insufficient number of vaccines to cover the entire population. Here, we incorporate these factors into a vaccination model to investigate and compare the effectiveness of the single-dose and two-dose vaccine strategies. The results show that, if vaccination starts early enough after the onset of the outbreak, a two-dose strategy can lead to a greater reduction in the total number of infections. This, however, requires the second dose of vaccine to confer a substantially higher protection compared to that induced by the first dose. For a sufficiently long delay in start of vaccination, the single-dose strategy outperforms the two-dose vaccination program regardless of its protection efficacy. The findings suggest that the population-wide benefits of a single-dose strategy could in general be greater than the two-dose vaccination program, in particular when the second dose offers marginal increase in the protection induced by the first dose.

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