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Research article

Enhancing the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs with immune boosters: A mathematical model

  • Received: 17 August 2023 Revised: 01 December 2023 Accepted: 04 December 2023 Published: 20 December 2023
  • This paper presents a mathematical model of severe malarial anemia (SMA), which is a complication of malaria and is a major contributor to malaria-related deaths. SMA is characterized by a decrease in hemoglobin levels in the blood due to the suppression of red blood cell (RBC) recruitment by the protein macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF). Plasmodium falciparum, which is a malaria-causing parasite, secretes a specific form of MIF called plasmodium falciparum macrophage migration inhibitory factor (PFMIF), which affects immune cells. Artesunate, which is the primary treatment for SMA, reduces the parasite level but does not increase hemoglobin levels and can sometimes lead to hemolytic anemia, which requires a blood transfusion. To address this issue, the experimental drug Epoxyazadiradione (Epoxy) was explored as a potential treatment for SMA. Epoxy inhibits both MIF and PFMIF interactions with immune cells and has the potential to increase hemoglobin levels in SMA patients. Our model simulations support previous findings that the appropriate combination of Artesunate with Epoxy can reduce parasite load while preventing anemia by maintaining hemoglobin levels at an adequate level. Additionally, we explored the impact of immune boosters on the anti-malarial drugs Artesunate and Epoxy and discovered that an insufficient amount of drugs is ineffective, while an excessive amount may not be beneficial.

    Citation: Dorcas Mulenga, Winnie Anoumedem, Blessing O. Emerinini, Nourridine Siewe. Enhancing the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs with immune boosters: A mathematical model[J]. AIMS Allergy and Immunology, 2023, 7(4): 281-303. doi: 10.3934/Allergy.2023019

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  • This paper presents a mathematical model of severe malarial anemia (SMA), which is a complication of malaria and is a major contributor to malaria-related deaths. SMA is characterized by a decrease in hemoglobin levels in the blood due to the suppression of red blood cell (RBC) recruitment by the protein macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF). Plasmodium falciparum, which is a malaria-causing parasite, secretes a specific form of MIF called plasmodium falciparum macrophage migration inhibitory factor (PFMIF), which affects immune cells. Artesunate, which is the primary treatment for SMA, reduces the parasite level but does not increase hemoglobin levels and can sometimes lead to hemolytic anemia, which requires a blood transfusion. To address this issue, the experimental drug Epoxyazadiradione (Epoxy) was explored as a potential treatment for SMA. Epoxy inhibits both MIF and PFMIF interactions with immune cells and has the potential to increase hemoglobin levels in SMA patients. Our model simulations support previous findings that the appropriate combination of Artesunate with Epoxy can reduce parasite load while preventing anemia by maintaining hemoglobin levels at an adequate level. Additionally, we explored the impact of immune boosters on the anti-malarial drugs Artesunate and Epoxy and discovered that an insufficient amount of drugs is ineffective, while an excessive amount may not be beneficial.



    The elaboration of mathematical models that describe interactions between cancer cells and the immune system is an actively developing field in mathematical medicine. One of the important goals of this modeling is to analyze the ultimate dynamics which is necessary for monitoring the long-term tumor dynamics and, in the most optimistic case, for the creation of tumor eradication algorithms as well. Oncolytic virotherapy of cancer attracts attention of many researchers, see e.g. papers [1,2,3,4,5,6,8,14] and so on. Eftimie et al. in [5] described and studied the seven-dimensional model characterizing behavior of the cancer population in the case when the dual immunization protocol, by vaccine viruses and oncolytic viruses, is applied. They obtained local stability conditions for equilibrium points of their model and numerically investigated multi-stability phenomenon which may exist in the case of four types of equilibrium points. Later, in [6], Eftimie et al. presented the five-dimensional system which is obtained by a simplification of the model from [5]. This system was derived from an experimental protocol of the paper [3] and can be written as

    x1=rx1(1x1+x2κ)a1x1x5b1+x1a2x1x4b2+x4x2=a1x1x5b1+x1δx2a2x2x4b2+x4x3=p1x3x5b3+x5(1x3m)x4=p2x3x5b3+x5a3x4a4x1x4+σx5=δβx2γx5. (1.1)

    Below the system (1.1) is considered on the nonnegative orthant R5+,0 and it is denoted by x1/x2/x3 /x4/ x5 the density of uninfected tumor cells/ infected tumor cells/ memory cells/ effector immune cells/ oncolytic (Vesicular Stomatitis) virus particles (OVPs) correspondingly. Parameters are supposed to be positive excepting σ, σ0 and are defined as follows: r is proliferation rate for uninfected tumor cells; κ is carrying capacity for tumor cells; a1 is infection rate of tumor cells with the oncolytic virus; b1 is half-saturation constant for the tumor cells infected with the oncolytic virus; δ is rate at which the oncolytic virus kills the tumor cells; a2 is lysis rate of tumor cells (infected and uninfected) by the immune cells; b2 is half-saturation constant for the effector cells that support half the maximum killing rate; p1 is proliferation rate of memory cells following secondary encounter with tumor antigens carried by virus particles; b3 is half-saturation constant of viral antigens that induce half the maximum proliferation rate of immune cells; m is carrying capacity for memory cells; p2 is rate at which memory cells become effector cells following secondary encounter with tumor antigens carried by virus particles; effector cells die at rate a3; a4 is inactivation rate of effector immune cells by tumor cells; β is number of OVPs released from an infected cell, capable of forming plaques; γ is decay rate for the concentration of OVPs in the blood; σ is the influx rate into the lymphoid tissue at which the naive cells become effector cells, see [5]. It is pointed out that σ has sufficiently small values and may be neglected, [6]. In this paper it is assumed that the rate σ reflects the presence of the influx of immune cells from the external source and the dependence of global behavior of (1.1) is explored with a change in σ.

    Authors of [6] studied only the case σ=0. They found equilibrium points and performed local stability analysis. As well, authors of [6] fulfilled numerical studies transient and asymptotic behavior of the system which are based on using bifurcation diagrams. In particular, they showed the existence of periodic orbits and a chaotic attractor for some values of parameters. Nevertheless, the rigorous exploration of long time-dynamics is of interest for better understanding potentialities of cancer virotherapy described by equations (1.1).

    The purpose of this paper and its novelty consist in studies of the case of convergence dynamics of (1.1), with σ0. In particular, conditions are found under which every trajectory in the nonnegative orthant tends to one of equilibrium points. It is worth to remind that systems with convergence dynamics have been investigated in articles of Hirsch; R.A. Smith; Li and Muldowney, see [7,15,16], in the broader perspective of studies of competitive or cooperative systems; higher dimensional generalizations of Bendixon's criterion and Dulac's criterion. Our results are based on the LaSalle theorem and the localization method of compact invariant sets (LMCIS), see [10,11]. It is worth to mention that the LMCIS has been efficiently utilized in papers [12,13,17,18,19,20] for analysis of ultimate dynamics of various cancer models.

    The dynamics of (1.1) has some distinctive features: the unbounded set of equilibrium points, positive Lagrange stability of trajectories and several invariant planes that are useful in this analysis. In the case of a sufficiently large σ>0 it is found that (1.1) acquires a new global qualitative property consisting in the fact that all trajectories are attracted to the tumor-free plane x1=x2=0. This property may be characterized quantitatively as well. Namely, it is computed a bound σ(1)min called the first eradication bound such that if σσ(1)min then each ω-limit set is located in x1=x2=0 plane. This signifies that the population of tumor cells is under control after sufficiently large time of observations. From the biological point of view, this case may correspond to the immunotherapy injection of some agent like IL-2 which is combined with virotherapy. Although the tumor may be cleared for σσ(1)min, but the harmful side effects from an over-activated immune system may eliminate the benefits of tumor clearance. We propose an approach for reducing this risk. We show that there is the sequence of eradication bounds {σ(k)min},k=1,2,..,with the property that for σσ(k)min each ω-limit set is located in x1=x2=0 plane. The value σ(k)min appears as the minimal positive root of some algebraic equation of degree k. The existence of σ(k)min is established in Theorem 5.1. The formula for σ(2)min is provided; here we have that σ(1)min>σ(2)min. It is demonstrated numerically that σ(2)min>σ(3)min. We expect that {σ(k)min} is a decreasing sequence. Figs. 1-3 show the tumor eradication dynamics with σ=σ(i)min,i=1,2,3.

    Figure 1.  Tumor eradication dynamics derived at γ=1.26.
    Figure 2.  Tumor eradication dynamics derived at γ=1.46.
    Figure 3.  Tumor eradication dynamics derived at γ=1.66.

    In the present paper ultimate upper bounds are computed for variables of (1.1). The domain defined by these bounds contains all compact invariant sets including a chaotic attractor found in [6] for some values of parameters. Further, it is noted that in the case σ=0 tumor-free TF-equilibrium points are always locally unstable [6]. Main results of this paper are

    1) Theorem 4.2 containing conditions under which the ω-limit set of any positive half trajectory in R5+ is either one of TF-equilibrium points or one of tumor-only TO-equilibrium points and

    2) Propositions 3;4 and Theorem 5.1 in which we give minimal bounds for σ guaranteeing convergence dynamics of any positive half trajectory in R5+ to one of tumor-only TO-equilibrium points.

    Therefore conditions of this paper may be utilized for a prediction of the possible health scenario for a sufficiently long time of observations.

    The results of this work are stated in terms of inequalities imposed on parameters of the model. This may be important in applications, because in medical models, as a rule, biological parameters are known in a certain range.

    The present paper is organized as follows. Helpful auxiliary results are provided in Section 2 and in Appendix. In Section 3 ultimate dynamics of the system (1.1) is studied via computing ultimate bounds in case σ0. These bounds form a domain in which the chaotic attractor is detected for some values of parameters given in [6]. Further, Section 4 contains conditions under which (1.1) possesses convergent dynamics to one of TO- or TF-equilibrium points in case σ=0. In Section 5 we describe the case when the immunotherapy is utilized σ>0. Here we show that the tumor clearance phenomenon may be achieved with a sufficiently large value of σ. The tumor eradication bounds for σ are derived. Section 6 contains concluding remarks. Appendix contains the derivation of the cubic equation for finding σ(3)min.

    With the goal of describing helpful results the following objects are introduced:

    1) a nonlinear system

    ˙x=v(x) (2.1)

    where v is a C1differentiable vector field; xRn is the state vector;

    2) a C1differentiable function h(x) such that h is not the first integral of (2.1);

    3) the set S(h):={xRnLvh(x)=0} where Lvh is the Lie derivative;

    4) values hinf:=inf{h(x)xS(h)}; hsup:=sup{h(x)xS(h)}.

    If it is set up the localization problem of compact invariant sets contained in the set MRn then the sets

    S(h;M):=S(h)M={xMLvh(x)=0};hinf(M):=inf{h(x)xS(h;M)};hsup(M):=sup{h(x)xS(h;M)}.

    are defined.

    Assertion 1 [9,10,11] For any h(x)C1(Rn) all compact invariant sets of the system (2.1) located in M are contained in the localization set K(h;M) defined by the formula K(h;M)={xMhinf(M)h(x)hsup(M)} as well. If MS(h)= then there are no compact invariant sets located in M.

    The function h mentioned in this assertion is called localizing.

    Below the following notations are used: if the system is examined on the positive orthant M=Rn+,0 then K(h):=K(h;M). If the system is considered on the domain M:=Rn+,0{x5>0} then this M is indicated.

    Further, it is utilized

    Assertion 2 [12]. Let h be a differential function which is bounded below on the set DRn and Lvh(x)Dε for some ε>0. Then the solution φ(x,t) of the system (2.1), with initial condition φ(x,0)=xD leaves the set D in a finite time.

    To formulate the following useful result, the nonautonomous system

    ˙y=G(y,t),yRn, (2.2)

    is introduced; here G is a C1differentiable vector function. The system (2.2) is called asymptotically autonomous with the limit system (2.1) if G(x,t)v(x), with t, for any compact subset in Rn, see e.g. [21].

    Theorem 2.1. (Markus), see e.g. [21]. Let us consider systems (2.1) and (2.2) in case n=2. Now if Ω is the ω -limit set of a forward bounded solution x of (2.2) then Ω either contains equilibria of (2.1) or Ω is the union of periodic orbits of (2.1).

    The Markus theorem is applicable to the nonnegative orthant R2+,0 in case when R2+,0 is a positively invariant domain.

    The planes x1=0; x1=x2=0; x3=0; x3=m; x2=x5=0 are invariant.

    Further, if σ=0 then there are four types of equilibrium points, [6]:

    a) TF-equilibrium points are given by E1:=(0,0,e13,0,0)T;e13R1+,0;

    b) TO-equilibrium points are given by E2:=(κ,0,e23,0,0)T;e23R1+,0;

    c) a tumor with virus but no immune response TV-equilibrium point is given by E3:=(e31,e32,0,0,e35)T, with

    e31=b1γa1βγ;e32=rδβ(κe31)(b1+e31)a1δβκ+b1rγ+e31rγ;e35=e35γβδ;

    d) an internal tumor virus ITV-equilibrium point is given by E4:=(e41,e42,m,e44,e45)T, with components e4j,j=1,2,4,5defined by very cumbersome formulas and omitted here.

    Since TF-equilibrium points and TO-equilibrium points form an unbounded set the system (1.1) does not possess the bounded positively invariant domain.

    It is noted that if σ=0 then each TF-equilibrium point (0,0,e13,0,0)T is connected with TO-equilibrium point (κ,0,e13,0,0)T by a heteroclinic orbit which is located in the invariant plane xi=0,i=2,4,5;x3=e13 and is an arc directed from (0,0,e13,0,0)T to (κ,0,e13,0,0)T. So heteroclinic orbits cover half strip x30,x2=x4=x5=0.

    Next, upper ultimate bounds are got for all state variables of the system (1.1) with help of computing the localization domain containing all compact invariant sets.

    1. Bound x1max. The localizing function h1=x1 is applied. Then

    S(h1){x1>0}={r(1x1+x2κ)=a1x5b1+x1+a2x4b2+x40}{r(1x1+x2κ)0}.

    Therefore the localization set K1max:={0x1κ:=x1max} is derived.

    2) Bound x2max. Here the function h2=x1+x2 is utilized. Then

    Lfh2=rx1(1x1+x2κ)a2(x1+x2)x4b2+x4δx2

    Therefore the inequality

    δ(x1+x2)(δ+r)x1rκx21

    holds on S(h2). Considering the last inequality within K1max the following inequality holds

    δ(x1+x2)ζ:={δκ,δ>rκ(δ+r)24r,δr}.

    Thus the localization set K21:={h2h2max:=ζδ1} is derived. So the upper bound x2max given in

    K2max:={x2ζδ1:=x2max} (3.2)

    is obtained.

    3) Bound x5max. Here using h3=x5 it is noted that

    S(h3)K2max{x5δβγx2max}

    and so the localization set with the bound x5max is obtained:

    K5max:={x5x5max:=δβγx2max}. (3.3)

    4) The bound x3max is computed with respect to the domain R5+,0{x5>0}. The function h4=x3 provides the localization set:

    K3max(h4,R5+,0{x5>0}):={0x3m;x5>0}.

    5) The bound x4max is computed with respect to the domain R5+,0{x5>0}. Here the function h5=x4 is applied. Then

    Lfh5=p2x3x5b3+x5a3x4a4x1x4+σ

    and therefore the set S(h5)K5max{x5>0} is contained in the set defined by the inequality

    x4p2x3x5a3(b3+x5)+σa3x4max:=p2mx5maxa3(b3+x5max)+σa3.

    Therefore the localization set:

    K4max(h5,R5+,0{x5>0}):={0x4x4max;x5>0}

    is got.

    As a result, it is established

    Proposition 1. All compact invariant sets inR5+,0{x5>0} are located in the domain

    Π:=i=1,2,5KimaxK3max(h4,R5+,0{x5>0})K4max(h5,R5+,0{x5>0}).

    Let φ(x,t) be a solution of (1.1), with φ(x,0)=x for all x. Further, the following fact is used in this paper:

    Lemma 3.1. Let σ0. The system (1.1) is positively Lagrange stable in R5+,0, i.e. for any point xR5+,0 the time functions φi(x,t),t0, i=1,...,5 are upper bounded. So there are no escaping to infinity trajectories in positive time.

    Proof. 1. Taking the function h1=x1 and the domain D1={x1κ+ε1}R5+,0 for ε1>0 it is easy to see that

    Lfh1D1rε1rε21κ<0.

    So applying Assertion 2 it is established that each trajectory leaves D1 in a finite time. So φ1(x,t) is upper bounded as a time function.

    2. Since x3=m is an invariant plane any trajectory with an initial condition satisfying the inequality x3m has the property that φ3(x,t) is upper bounded as a time function. From the other side, if a trajectory has an initial condition satisfying x3>m then since ˙x3(t)0 on the domain x3>m then φ3(x,t) is upper bounded as a time function.

    3. We have in R5+,0 that

    ˙x4a3x4+p2φ3(x,t)+σ.

    Integrating this inequality we obtain that the function φ4(x,t) is upper bounded.

    4. Taking the function h2=x1+x2 and the domain

    D2={x1+x2h2max+ε2;x1<κ+ε1}R5+,0,

    for ε2>0 it is easy to see that

    Lfh2D2rε1rε21κa2(h2max+ε2)inft>0φ4(x,t)a2+φ4(x,t)<0.

    So applying Assertion 2 it is established that each trajectory leaves D2 in a finite time. So both of φi(x,t),i=1,2 are upper bounded time functions.

    5. At last, it follows from integration of ˙x5 with the upper bounded time function φ2(x,t) that φ5(x,t) is the upper bounded time function as well.

    The main purpose of this section is to present attraction conditions to either TF- equilibrium points or TO- equilibrium points in case σ=0. All statements are established in the form of simple inequalities imposed on the decay rate γ of VSV particles in the blood. Here γ can be considered as a control parameter. Firstly, it is introduced a system obtained from (1.1) by a restriction on the invariant plane x3=x4=0:

    x1=rx1(1x1+x2κ)a1x1x5b1+x1;x2=a1x1x5b1+x1δx2;x5=δβx2γx5. (4.1)

    By g it is denoted its vector field. This system has the following equilibrium points

    e1=(0,0,0)T;e2=(κ,0,0)T;e3=(e31,e32,e33)T

    with

    e31=b1γa1βγ;e32=rb1γ(κe31)(e31+γ)rb1γ(e31+γ)+e31κa1βδ;e33=δβγe32.

    Before considering the system (1.1) it is formulated

    Lemma 4.1. The system (4.1) has the localization domainΠ1 in R3+,0 defined by

    x1x1max:=κ;x2x2max;x5x5max

    where x2max is defined by (3.2). This polytope contains all compact invariant sets and the attracting set of (4.1).

    These bounds are derived as in case of Proposition 1.

    Proposition 2. Assume that

    γ>γmin:=a1βκκ+b1. (4.2)

    Then each trajectory of the system (4.1) in R3+,0 tends to e1 or e2.

    Proof. Let us apply the function h6=x2+β1x5. Then

    Lgh6=(a1x1b1+x1γβ)x5. (4.3)

    It is noted that all ω-limit sets of the system (4.1) are located in Π1. So one may examine the equality (4.3) on Π1 and proceed as follows

    Lgh6Π1(a1κb1+κγβ)x5Π10.

    By using Lemma 4.1 and the LaSalle theorem it is established that the ω-limit set of any point of the system (4.1) is not empty and belongs to the set {x5=0}.Therefore, in order to analyze the ultimate dynamics of (4.1) it should be examined the ultimate dynamics of the system

    x1=rx1(1x1+x2κ)a1x1φ5(x,t)b1+x1x2=a1x1φ5(x,t)b1+x1δx2, (4.4)

    with the input φ5(x,t) satisfying the condition

    limtφ5(x,t)=0.

    The system (4.4) is asymptotically autonomous with the limit system

    x1=rx1(1x1+x2κ)x2=δx2, (4.5)

    All solutions of the system (4.5) in R2+,0 are convergent to the equilibrium point (κ,0)T. In virtue of the Markus theorem, all solutions of the system (4.4) are convergent to the equilibrium point (κ,0)T. Therefore any solution of the system (4.1) tends to e1 or e2.

    Remark 1. If the inequality

    1<a1βγ<1+b1κ

    then there is the third equilibrium e3 which is not contained in R3+,0 because κe31<0 and, therefore, e32<0. It follows from formulas for equilibrium points.

    Now it is established

    Theorem 4.2. Suppose that (4.2) is fulfilled. Then theω -limit set in R5+,0 is either one of TF-equilibrium points or one of TO-equilibrium points.

    It should be noted that the condition (4.2) is the condition of local stability of TO-equilibrium points, see [6].

    Proof. Let us apply the function h6=x2+β1x5. In this case

    Lfh6=a1x1x5b1+x1γβx5a2x2x4b2+x4. (4.6)

    Since all ω-limit sets of the system (1.1) in R5+,0{x5>0} are nonempty and are located in K1max one may restrict the equality (4.6) on K1max and proceed as follows

    Lfh6K1max{(a1κb1+κγβ)x5a2x2x4b2+x4}K1max0.

    Using the condition (4.2) and the LaSalle theorem it is possible to conclude that any ω-limit set belongs to the set {x2=x5=0}{x4=x5=0}. Hence, any ω-limit set is one of TF-equilibrium points or TO-equilibrium points.

    Below everwhere we take the case a2>r. We shall utilize the notation x(1)1max:=x1max.

    Proposition 3. Then all compact invariant sets are located in the domain K(1)4minK(2)1max, with

    K(1)4min:={x4x(1)4min:=σa3+a4κ};K(2)1max:={x1x(2)1max:=κa2κx(1)4minr(b2+x(1)4min)}.{}

    Here these formulas are valid under condition

    σ<σ(1)min:=b2r(a3+a4κ)a2r. (5.1)

    2) Further, if

    σσ(1)min (5.2)

    then all ω -limit sets are located in the plane x1=0. Moreover, all ω -limit sets are located in the plane x1=0;x2=0 as well.

    The value of σ(1)min is called the first eradication bound.

    Proof. 1). Using the function h5 one may obtain inequalities

    σp2x3x5b3+x5+σ=a3x4+a4x1x4(a3+a4κ)x4

    within the set K1maxS(h5) and, as a result, the localization set K(1)4min is got. Next,

    ˙x1x1>0(rrκx1a2x4b2+x4)x1>0 (5.3)

    and the inequality (5.3) on the domain K(1)4min leads to the inequality

    0<rκx1ra2x(1)4minb2+x(1)4min.

    This implies the desirable assertion.

    2) It follows from (5.3), the LaSalle theorem and the fact that the second equation of (1.1) with x10 is globally asymptotically stable.

    Now we discuss how we can decrease the value for σ for which the tumor clearance can be reached.

    One may iterate this argument and obtain sequences of localization sets

    K(1)4minK(2)4minK(2)1maxK(3)1max

    with

    x(k)1max(σ):=κa2κx(k1)4min(σ)r(b2+x(k1)4min)(σ),k=3,4,

    and

    x(k)1max(σ)>x(k+1)1max(σ),k=1,2,...

    So similarly as above, we establish

    Proposition 4. If for given value of the influx rate σ there is k such that

    x(1)1max(σ)>x(2)1max(σ)>...>x(k1)1max(σ)>0

    but x(k)1max(σ)0 then we have the tumor clearance for this value of σ.

    The minimal positive root of the equation (5.4)

    x(k)1max(σ)=0 (5.4)

    is called the kth eradication bound which will be denoted by σ(k)min. In what follows, we examine the issue concerning the existence of a positive root of (5.4) for any k. Finding bounds for the value σ(k)min encounters computational difficulties and is not the subject of this study. We notice that though the function x(k)1max(σ) may possess more than one positive root, this fact does not contradict the biological meaning of the use of the treatment σ. This is because in Propositions 3 and 4 only sufficient conditions of the tumor clearance are given.

    Below we shall utilize notations

    Ak(σ)=Pk(σ)Qk(σ)=x(k)1max(σ);Bk(σ)=x(k)4min(σ) (5.5)

    and for simplicity we shall omit σ for functions introduced in (5.5). Further, our goal is to establish

    Theorem 5.1. The equation (5.4) for k2 has at least one positive root.

    Proof. Firstly, we prove

    Lemma 5.2. We have for any k2 that 1) degPk=degQk=k1; 2) coefficients of Pk and Qk satisfy the following condition:

    coefσ0(Pk)>0;coefσ0(Qk)>0;coefσk1(Pk)<0;coefσk1(Qk)>0.

    Proof. We shall prove this statement by induction on k. For k=2 this result is valid since

    A2=P2Q2=κκa2B1r(b2+B1)=rb2κ(a3+a4κ)+σκ(ra2)r[b2(a3+a4κ)+σ].

    Suppose that this assertion is proven for k. Let us consider this assertion for k+1. Then

    Ak+1=Pk+1Qk+1=κκa2Bkr(b2+Bk)=κrb2+Bkκ(ra2)r(b2+Bk). (5.6)

    Using the formula

    Bk=σa3+a4Ak=σQka3Qk+a4Pk

    we proceed (5.6) as follows:

    Ak+1=κrb2(a3Qk+a4Pk)+σQkκ(ra2)r[b2(a3Qk+a4Pk)+σQk]. (5.7)

    Now we get from the inductive hypothesis and the formula (5.7) that the first assertion of this lemma is valid and, besides, we notice that

    coefσ0(Pk+1)=κrb2[a3coefσ0(Qk)+a4coefσ0(Pk)]>0;coefσ0(Qk+1)=rb2[a3coefσ0(Qk)+a4coefσ0(Pk)]>0;coefσk(Pk+1)=κ(ra2)coefσk1(Qk)<0;coefσk(Qk+1)=rcoefσk1(Qk)>0.

    Therefore Lemma 5.2 is proven.

    As a result, in virtue of Lemma 5.2 and the formula (5.7) we obtain the desirable assertion.

    Now we compute the value σ(2)min. Then we have that

    B2=σr(b2+B1)r(a3+a4κ)(b2+B1)a2a4κB1.

    Examining the equation A3(σ)=0 we get the equation

    rb2=B2(a2r). (5.8)

    For our convenience we introduce notations

    α1=b2a2r;α2=rb2(a3+a4κ)2;α3=r(a3+a4κ)a2a4κ

    in (5.8) and after this we come to the equation

    σ2+σ(b2(a3+a4κ)α1α3)α1α2=0.

    Its unique positive root has the form

    σ+=α1α3b2(a3+a4κ)2+(α1α3b2(a3+a4κ))24+α1α2

    We notice that σ(2)min=σ+. Finally, by the routine computations omitted here it is easy to establish that

    σ(1)min+b2(a3+a4κ)α1α32>0

    and, its square exceeds

    (α1α3b2(a3+a4κ))24+α1α2.

    So, we have that σ(1)min>σ(2)min and in case of using σσ(2)min we still achieve the tumor eradication.

    Now taking parameters from Table 2 [6], we demonstrate by calculations that the tumor eradication bounds σ(1)min;σ(2)min;σ(3)min are decreasing: σ(1)min=1118.3;σ(2)min=530.3;σ(3)min=419.9.

    On Figures 1; 2; 3 we show the tumor eradication dynamics corresponding these values of σ at γ=1.26;1.46 and 1.66:

    It should be said that one can get improved bounds for x2 and x5 with help of using formulas (3.2)-(3.3). In this case the function h2=x1+x2 it should be employed in the same way as above in the formula (3.1). So considering S(h2) within K(1)1maxK(1)4min it is easy to see that this set is located in the set defined by the inequality

    (δ+a2x4minb2+x4min)(x1+x2)ζ.

    Thus the localization set K22:={h2h2max:=ζδ11} is obtained, with

    δ1=δ+a2x4minb2+x4min.

    As a result, one can get upper bounds indicated in the formula

    K(1)2max:={x2ζδ11:=x(1)2max}K(1)5max:={x5x(1)5max:=σβγx(1)2max}.

    Hence one may conclude:

    Proposition 5. All compact invariant sets are located in the domain K(1)1maxK(1)2maxK(1)5maxK(1)4min.

    Convergence conditions for trajectories of the model (1.1) are presented in this paper. Such kind of ultimate dynamics may be important for predicting the patient's health scenario, its monitoring, correction and a proper application of treatments. For this purpose one may vary the parameters γ (the decay rate for the concentration of OVPs in the blood) and σ (the rate of influx of immune cells from the external source).

    1) Ultimate upper bounds for x1-, x2-cells populations and for concentration of OVPs (x5) are obtained. Upper bounds for x3-, x4-cells populations are given provided we examine compact invariant sets outside the plane x5=0. As a result, it is shown that ultimate dynamics of the system (1.1) outside the plane x5=0 is contained in the domain defined by these bounds. Then it is established that in case σ>0 upper bounds for x1-, x2-, x5- variables and the lower bound for x4- variable can be improved by some number of iterations.

    2) In the case σ=0 we examine one specific type of the convergence dynamics (1.1), which excludes the existence of TV-, ITV-equilibrium points, periodic orbits and the chaotic attractor. All results are expressed in terms of γ. It is computed the lower bound γmin such that for γ>γmin any trajectory is attracted to either one of TO-equilibrium points or one of TF-equilibrium points. This problem is solved in Theorem 4.2.

    3) In Proposition 3 conditions for the global tumor elimination are presented for sufficiently large values of the influx rate σ of immune cells from the external source σ,σσ(1)min. The formula (5.2) describes how the eradication bound σ(1)min depends on parameters of the model. It is shown that the bound σ(1)min may be decreased if we apply the iterational procedure. This leads to a reduced risk of over-immunization. As a result, we get the sequence of bounds σ(k)min which are characterized in Theorem 5.1. It is demonstrated that σ(2)min<σ(1)min. The decrease of the sequence of eradication bounds {σ(k)min} seems clear from the point of view of common sense and is confirmed by calculations. However, the additional analysis is still required and deserves a separate research. On Figures 1; 2; 3 it is shown numerically that there is the tumor eradication dynamics at different values of γ and σ=σ(1)min;σ(2)min;σ(3)min.Our statements about the tumor eradication are presented in a convenient form for applications and may be helpful in administering immunotherapy.

    Further, let us derive an equation for finding σ(3)min. With this goal we notice that .

    A2=θ1+σθ2θ3+σθ4, (6.1)

    with

    θ1=κrb2(a3+a4κ);abcdθ2=κ(ra2);θ3=rb2(a3+a4κ);abcdeθ4=r.

    Utilizing these formulas for B2 we have that

    B2=σa3+a4A2=θ3σ+θ4σ2θ5+θ6σ,

    with

    θ5=a3θ3+a4θ1;abcdθ6=a3θ4+a4θ2.

    Next, we compute

    A3=κκa2B2rb2+rB2=κθ7+σθ8+σ2θ9θ10+σθ11+σ2θ12,

    with

    θ7=rb2θ5;abcdθ8=rb2θ6+(ra2)θ3;abcdθ9=(ra2)θ4;abcdθ10=rb2θ6+rθ3;abcdθ11=rθ4.

    Further,

    B3=σa3+a4A3=σθ7+σ2θ10+σ3θ11θ12+σθ13+σ2θ14,

    with

    θ12=(a3+a4κ)θ7;θ13=a3θ10+a4κθ8;θ14=a3θ11+a4θ9

    Finally, we notice that σ(3)min is a minimal positive root of the cubic equation rb2+B3(ra2)=0 which can be written in the form

    σ3θ11(ra2)+σ2(rb2θ14+(ra2)θ10)+σ(rb2θ13+(ra2)θ7)+rb2θ12=0.

    All authors declare no conflicts of interest in this paper.


    Acknowledgments



    This research was supported by the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)-Cameroon, and the School of Mathematics and Statistics at Rochester Institute of Technology.

    Conflict of interest



    The authors declare that they have no known competing interests that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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