A two-sex model for the influence of heavy alcohol consumption on the spread of HIV/AIDS
-
Received:
01 October 2009
Accepted:
29 June 2018
Published:
01 October 2010
-
-
MSC :
Primary: 92D30; Secondary: 92B05, 34D20.
-
-
The HIV/AIDS epidemic, one of the leading public health problems to
have affected sub-Sahara Africa, is a multifaceted problem with
social, behavioral and biological aspects. In the absence of a cure,
behavioral change has been advocated as an intervention strategy for
reversing the epidemic. Empirical studies have found heavy alcohol
consumption to be a fueling factor for HIV/AIDS infection and
progression. Previously [20], we formulated and
analyzed a one-sex deterministic model to capture the dynamics of
this deadly interaction. But, since alcohol drinking habits,
consequent risky sexual practices, alcohol-induced immune
suppression, etc., can be different for men and women, the primary
objective of our present paper is to construct a two-sex model aimed
at shedding light on how both sexes, with varying heavy alcohol
consumption trends, contribute differently to the HIV/AIDS spread.
Based on numerical simulations, supported by the UNAIDS
epidemiological software SPECTRUM and using the available data, our
study identifies heavy drinking among men and women to be a major
driving force for HIV/AIDS in Botswana and sub-Sahara Africa and
quantifies its hazardous outcomes in terms of increased number of
active TB cases and economic burden caused by increased need for
AntiRetroviral Therapy (ART). Our simulations point to the
heavy-drinking habits of men as a major reason for the continuing
disproportionate impact of HIV/AIDS on women in sub-Sahara Africa.
Our analysis has revealed the possibility of the phenomenon of
backward bifurcation. In contrast to the result in some HIV
vaccination models [52], backward bifurcation in our model
is not removed by replacing the corresponding standard incidence
function with a mass action incidence, but is removed by merging the
two susceptible classes of the same sex into one, i.e., by ignoring
acquisition of, and ongoing recovery from, heavy-drinking habits
among the susceptible population.
Citation: Gigi Thomas, Edward M. Lungu. A two-sex model for the influence of heavy alcohol consumption on the spread of HIV/AIDS[J]. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2010, 7(4): 871-904. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.871
-
Abstract
The HIV/AIDS epidemic, one of the leading public health problems to
have affected sub-Sahara Africa, is a multifaceted problem with
social, behavioral and biological aspects. In the absence of a cure,
behavioral change has been advocated as an intervention strategy for
reversing the epidemic. Empirical studies have found heavy alcohol
consumption to be a fueling factor for HIV/AIDS infection and
progression. Previously [20], we formulated and
analyzed a one-sex deterministic model to capture the dynamics of
this deadly interaction. But, since alcohol drinking habits,
consequent risky sexual practices, alcohol-induced immune
suppression, etc., can be different for men and women, the primary
objective of our present paper is to construct a two-sex model aimed
at shedding light on how both sexes, with varying heavy alcohol
consumption trends, contribute differently to the HIV/AIDS spread.
Based on numerical simulations, supported by the UNAIDS
epidemiological software SPECTRUM and using the available data, our
study identifies heavy drinking among men and women to be a major
driving force for HIV/AIDS in Botswana and sub-Sahara Africa and
quantifies its hazardous outcomes in terms of increased number of
active TB cases and economic burden caused by increased need for
AntiRetroviral Therapy (ART). Our simulations point to the
heavy-drinking habits of men as a major reason for the continuing
disproportionate impact of HIV/AIDS on women in sub-Sahara Africa.
Our analysis has revealed the possibility of the phenomenon of
backward bifurcation. In contrast to the result in some HIV
vaccination models [52], backward bifurcation in our model
is not removed by replacing the corresponding standard incidence
function with a mass action incidence, but is removed by merging the
two susceptible classes of the same sex into one, i.e., by ignoring
acquisition of, and ongoing recovery from, heavy-drinking habits
among the susceptible population.
-
-
-
-