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Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi Province with discrete time imported cases

Ming-Tao Li Gui-Quan Sun Juan Zhang Yu Zhao Xin Pei Li Li Yong Wang Wen-Yi Zhang Zi-Ke Zhang Zhen Jin

*Corresponding author: Ming-Tao Li, Gui-Quan Sun, Zhen Jin limingtao18@126.com;gquansun@126.com;jinzhn@263.net


Since December 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (WHO named COVID-19) swept across China. In Shanxi Province, the cumulative confirmed cases finally reached 133 since the first confirmed case appeared on January 22, 2020, and most of which were imported cases from Hubei Province. Reasons for this ongoing surge in Shanxi province, both imported and autochthonous infected cases, are currently unclear and demand urgent investigation. In this paper, we developed a SEIQR difference-equation model of COVID-19 that took into account the transmission with discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis. Our findings suggest that if the lock-down date in Wuhan is earlier, the infectious cases are fewer. Moreover, we reveal the effects of city lock-down date on the final scale of cases: if the date is advanced two days, the cases may decrease one half (67, 95% CI: 66–68); if the date is delayed for two days, the cases may reach about 196 (95% CI: 193–199). Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to study the transmission of COVID-19, in other provinces of China except Hubei. Especially, the method may also be used in countries with the first confirmed case is imported.

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