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Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

Zhihua Liu Pierre Magal Ousmane Seydi Glenn Webb

*Corresponding author: Pierre Magal pierre.magal@u-bordeaux.fr


We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

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